Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• RBS, 4 Other Banks Warn of Relocation to England if Scots Vote Yes; Catalans Stage Mass Protest for Independence
• Fishing for Trout With Rope and Mashed Potatoes; Mentality of Jackasses; Gas Pains
• Don't Like the Rules? Then Ignore Them: Shoot First, Ask Questions Later
• 53% of Chinese Expect War With Japan

RBS, 4 Other Banks Warn of Relocation to England if Scots Vote Yes; Catalans Stage Mass Protest for Independence Posted: 11 Sep 2014 11:12 PM PDT Tale of Two Countries Fearmongering in Scotland hits fever pitch as RBS and four other banks threaten to leave the country if Scotland votes "Yes" for independence. In Spain, Catalans staged a huge protest in favor of independence. The Spanish government hopes Scotland will vote "No" even though it seeks to halt a Catalan vote altogether. Let's take a close look at these stories starting with Scotland. RBS, 4 Other Banks Warn of Relocation to England if Scots Vote Yes On the fearmongering front, RBS warns it would relocate to England if Scots vote Yes. Royal Bank of Scotland led a host of banks employing more than 35,000 people in Scotland who warned that they would relocate their headquarters south of the border in the event of a Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum next week. "RBS believes that it would be necessary to re-domicile the bank's holding company and its primary rated operating entity (The Royal Bank of Scotland plc) to England," it said in a statement on Thursday. The move, which followed a similar announcement from Lloyds Banking Group on Wednesday, was swiftly echoed by Clydesdale Bank, TSB Bank and Tesco Bank, which all individually confirmed they would set up London-based entities if Scotland voted to leave the UK. The recently floated TSB Bank, which has more than a quarter of its loans north of the border, said it planned to move its main high street banking subsidiary's domicile from Edinburgh to London. TSB's parent company and head office are already all in London, but it has more than 2,000 staff in Scotland, out of a total of 8,000. "Although the implications of Scottish Independence remain unclear, it is likely that in the event of a Yes vote, TSB will establish additional legal entities in England," it said, adding that it expected there to be enough time between a Yes vote and the start of independence to implement any changes. With some polls showing the two sides neck-and-neck a week before the vote, business leaders have become more outspoken about the impact of a Yes vote. Retailer Next said on Thursday it feared that independence would push up prices in its stores north of the border. Sir Charlie Mayfield, chairman of John Lewis, said independence could force the retailer to adopt a different pricing regime in Scotland due to potential currency and tax changes. The announcements came after a co-ordinated effort by the Better Together campaign, the Treasury and Number 10 to persuade businesses to speak up in favour of the union. On Thursday morning, more than 100 Scottish business leaders jointly signed a letter organised by Better Together urging Scots to vote No, arguing that the economic risks of separation were not worth taking. Standard Life, the FTSE 100 insurer that is one of the largest employers north of the border, said on Wednesday that it was planning to shift large parts of its business out of the country if Scotland voted for independence. "This transfer of our business could potentially include pensions, investments and other long-term savings," it said. 20 Point "No" Lead Vanished This one is close. Hopefully Scotland does the right thing and votes for independence. In the wake of a fever-pitch fearmongering effort by Cameron, banks, and others, it's hard to say. The only reason Cameron allowed this vote in the first place is because he thought it was a guaranteed proposition. The "No" voters once had a 20-point lead in the polls. Mass Protest in Barcelona Meanwhile, in Spain, Catalans stage mass protest in Barcelona to back referendum The Catalan independence movement held a mass rally in Barcelona on Thursday as part of an intensifying campaign in support of a planned November referendum on the region's future political status. Dressed in red and yellow, the colours of the Catalan flag, hundreds of thousands of protesters assembled on Gran Via and Avenida Diagonal, two of the city's main arteries. Seen from the air, the rally formed the shape of a giant V, described by organisers as a symbol of Catalonia's desire to vote. The Catalan demonstration was staged a week before Scotland's independence referendum, and less than two months before the planned plebiscite in the Spanish region. The Spanish government has said repeatedly that it will not allow the Catalan vote to go ahead, arguing that the country's constitution allows no space for regional self-determination. The constitutional court is set to rule on the issue in the weeks ahead, and is widely expected to side with Madrid. Catalan leaders will then have to decide whether to press ahead with their ballot or comply with the court ruling and develop an alternative strategy. Speaking hours before the demonstration, Artur Mas, the Catalan president, renewed his calls on Madrid not to stand in the way of the November vote. "The message [today] is, 'We want to vote. We are a nation. We want to decide our own political future.'" Let the Voters Decide Why shouldn't the Catalan voters, like Scottish voters, get to decide their own fate? The only apparent answer is Spain knows full well they would vote for independence. Had Cameron realized the vote in the UK would have been this close, I rather doubt he would have allowed it. Yet, as I have stated before, it's far better to settle such issues by vote than by civil war. For further discussion, please see Will Tears and Promises Save the Day for the "No" Vote for Scotland? Lesson for Ukraine: Voting is Better than Civil War. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Fishing for Trout With Rope and Mashed Potatoes; Mentality of Jackasses; Gas Pains Posted: 11 Sep 2014 01:46 PM PDT The EU stepped up its sanctions today after forcing all the ducks in line with the position of president Obama. Russia immediately responded in kind with actions on cars, clothes, and energy. The Financial Times reports Russia Threatens to Cap Western Car and Clothing Imports. Russia threatened to escalate a growing trade dispute between the Kremlin and the EU, saying it could cap western car and clothing imports. The fresh warning came as EU diplomats ended a week-long deadlock on Thursday over a new round of sanctions against the Kremlin, and agreed to trigger measures to block Russia's largest state-owned oil companies from raising money on European capital markets. Forcing Ducks In Line The measures were due to go into effect at the start of the week, but several EU countries balked, arguing they needed more time to assess whether the Kiev-brokered ceasefire would take hold. Diplomats said the decision by EU ambassadors to press ahead came after Herman Van Rompuy, the European Council president, held a conference call on Thursday with the leaders of the four European countries in the Group of Seven leading industrialised nations – Germany's Angela Merkel, France's François Hollande, Britain's David Cameron and Italy's Matteo Renzi – to finalise the measures. Russia's Response Speaking after the EU announcement, Vladimir Chizhov, Russia's permanent representative to the EU, told Russian newswires: "Russia has no other choice but to go for certain countermeasures." Russia Tightens Gas Supplies to Poland Also consider Russia Tightens Gas Supplies to Poland. Poland's state gas group PGNiG said on Wednesday that Gazprom had delivered 20 per cent less gas on Monday and 24 per cent less gas on Tuesday than it was contracted to supply. Kiev confirmed Poland had been forced to stop re-exports to Ukraine in response to these cuts. Igor Prokopiv, head of Ukraine's gas pipeline operator, confirmed the knock-on effect in Ukraine. "At 2pm Poland stopped reverse gas flows to Ukraine which had been in the range of 4m cubic metres," he told journalists in Kiev. "Today Poland put in an order for 11 mcm a day, and Russia confirmed orders for 7mcm. Those 4mcm are our reverse flows."  Energy supplies are one of Ukraine's most serious vulnerabilities. It is one of the world's least efficient energy consumers and its supply crunch is being compounded by falling coal production in the Donbass region, which has been affected by conflict. Ukraine needs to import about half of its consumption of about 50 bcm annually and analysts reckon it would be hard to weather the winter without imports of 5bcm to 10bcm The volumes of reverse-flows are modest in comparison with Ukraine's needs. Slovakia is exporting some 21 mcm/d, Hungary can supply 16 mcm and Poland can send 4 mcm. Priorities vs. Solidarity Ukraine complained last month that reverse flows were running at far less than potential capacity; Hungary for example is sending only about 3 mcm, because its priority is to fill its own storage facilities in readiness for a stand-off with Russia. Gas Pains The above statements sum up the position quite nicely, don't they? In essence it's a big F*You to Ukraine. Better Ukraine to be totally without gas than for the rest of Europe to suffer from any gas pains. Sanctions Never Work As a result of previous sanctions, and counter-sanctions fruit is rotting in the fields, and European GDP is under pressure. Please consider March 19: Sanctions are a Negative Sum Game. March 20: Buffoon Bluffery; What are Sanctions Really About? July 29: Russia Eyes Banning US Chicken, European Fruit July 30: Sanction like a two games in one: "Chicken" Coupled with M.A.D July 31: Adidas, Volkswagen, Siemens and Royal Dutch warn Sanctions Starting to Bite the Hands That Promoted Them August 4: Russia responds to increased US sanctions by blocking fruit imports from Poland: How About Them Apples? August 6: US Dependent on Russia for NASA Launches; Well, Guess What? Russia Fires Back With More Sanctions: NASA, Pepsi, McDonald's, Autos in Spotlight August 8: Putin's Trade Blow Throws Finland's Exporters Into Shock August 11: 800 Finnish Dairy Workers Furloughed Due to Russia Sanctions, Others Fired; Brussels to Buy Fruit with Public Money August 14: Solidarity Goes Up in Smoke as Slovakia Proclaims "We Can't Sacrifice Our Interests in the Name of Some Duel" Small Price Theory Who cares if history says sanctions don't work? Who cares if a recession ensues? Not to worry, it's a "small price to pay" say sanction supporters. I encourage everyone to read my previous discussions on the absolute silliness of the "small price" theory. "Small Price to Pay" Scathing Anti-West Editorial in German Handelsblatt; Reader Emails on "Small Price to Pay" Air Flight Restrictions On September 8 I noted Russia threatens to block commercial air traffic over Russian airspace. Costly re-routes on the way. See EU Threatens New Sanctions; Russia Responds with Threats on Natural Gas and Airspace Flight Restrictions. Mentality of Jackasses In the above article I commented ... Why EU and US economic-jackasses think sanctions will accomplish anything positive or change Russia's behavior one bit is at first glance a bit of a mystery. However, economic-jackasses by definition are going to do stupid things, so we should expect more and more of the same failed tactics. Reader Terry responded "I'm astounded that you, a libertarian, belittle the EU for economic sanctions. The EU has nothing but economic sanctions to make Russia pay any kind of price for invading its neighbors." Sanction Irony - Putin's Popularity Hits 87% I am amused by the silliness of Terry's comment. For starters, no Libertarian would ever be in favor of sanctions.  Invariably, the average citizen ends of paying the price. And that holds true for both sides. Time Magazine explains how sanctions really work: Putin's Popularity Soars to 87% in the Face of Adversity Expect Putin to cave in on account of sanctions? Think again. The bigger the sanctions, the greater the hardships on those who impose them. Nonetheless, the EU and President Obama want to "do something". So they do. And to get support, they flash the "patriotism card". Unthinking sheep fall in line every time. Fishing for Trout With Rope and Mashed Potatoes In spite of the fact that sanctions are counterproductive, the "EU has nothing but sanctions to try" so that's what they do. Next, mainstream media parrots fall in line. Ultimately,  and under the guise of patriotism, the sheep and ducks fall in line as well. The sanction approach is similar to fishing for trout with rope and mashed potatoes because that's all you have to fish with. Actually, sanctions are far worse. Fishing for trout with mashed potatoes and rope only wastes time and potatoes. Sanctions waste more time, a tremendous amount of money, and the bigger the sanctions, the greater the loss of jobs and economic output. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Don't Like the Rules? Then Ignore Them: Shoot First, Ask Questions Later Posted: 11 Sep 2014 12:01 PM PDT In politics, if you don't like the rules, you ignore them. This philosophy only works if you are big enough and powerful enough to get away with it. I have some recent examples. Shoot First Ask Questions Later The Guardian comments Obama's Legal Rationale for Isis Strikes: Shoot First, ask Congress Later. For expanded Isis strikes, president relies on legal authority he disavowed only a year ago. Obama said he would welcome congressional support but framed it as optional, save for the authorisations and the $500m he wants to use the US military to train Syrian rebels. Yet one of the main authorities Obama is relying on for avoiding Congress is the 2001 wellspring of the war on terrorism he advocated repealing only last year, a document known as the Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) that few think actually applies to Isis. Taken together with the congressional leadership's shrug, Obama has stripped the veneer off a contemporary fact of American national security: presidents make war on their own, and congresses acquiesce. The constitution envisions the exact opposite circumstance.  More Obama Examples  Changes on the fly to Obamacare? Hey, why not? Who is going to stop him? Immigration rule changes? Why not? It matters not that Obama would be overstepping his bounds in a matter that should be left to Congress. It matters not that Only 26% in Favor of Obama's Amnesty Plan for Illegal Immigrants. Republicans and Democrats Alike It's not just Obama. Bush and Cheney wanted a war with Iraq so they lied to get one. Some $3 trillion later, many warmongering fools still think Bush was correct. Yet, we are now fighting in Iraq for the third time as a result. FDR Burns Crop, Confiscates Gold FDR confiscated everyone's gold and burned farmers' crops, two of many blatantly illegal, even treasonous acts by FDR. He is revered by Keynesian economists for breaking the law because he got away with it and they believe it worked. (It didn't). End analysis says that if presidents think they can get away with it, they do what they want. Constitution be damned. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

53% of Chinese Expect War With Japan Posted: 10 Sep 2014 11:59 PM PDT Even with battles over energy, disputed islands, and recent militarism by Japan, one might not have expected this polling result: Majority in China Expect War with Japan. China and Japan are heading towards military conflict, according to a majority of Chinese surveyed on ties between the Asian powers in a Sino-Japanese poll. The Genron/China Daily survey found that 53 per cent of Chinese respondents – and 29 per cent of the Japanese polled – expect their nations to go to war. The poll was released ahead of the second anniversary of Japan's move to nationalise some of the contested Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. Relations between Japan and China have soured since Japan bought three of the tiny islands – which China claims and calls the Diaoyu – in 2012. Japan defended the move as an effort to thwart a plan by the anti-China governor of Tokyo to buy them, but China accused it of breaching an unwritten deal to keep the status quo. According to the poll, 38 per cent of Japanese think war will be avoided, but that marked a nine point drop from 2013. It also found that a record 93 per cent of Japanese have an unfavourable view of their Chinese neighbours, while the number of Chinese who view Japanese unfavourably fell 6 points to 87 per cent. Energy Production Given global restraints on the production and use of energy, my view is that it is impossible for China to keep growing 7% a year as most expect. I believe China will be lucky to grow 3% on average for the next decade. Questions of the Day If China attempts to maintain 7% growth for another decade, where will the energy resources come from? If China doesn't maintain high growth, what about mounting Chinese unrest due to lack of jobs? What happens when Abenomics fails? What about US, EU, and Japanese pushes for higher inflation even though wages don't keep up? What about Ukraine and the US-EU feud with Russia? What about ISIS? What abut Syria? My point? The global economy is a tinderbox, waiting for a catalyst to explode. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Damn Cool Pics

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• The X-files Celebrates Its 21st Birthday
• One Of The Last Pictures Taken At The World Trade Center
• When Evolution Goes Wrong
• Gouy Zhingzhing Tests The Firmness Of Her Breasts

The X-files Celebrates Its 21st Birthday Posted: 11 Sep 2014 12:09 PM PDT Today the X-Files turns 21 years old. Mulder and Scully look a whole lot different in 2014 than they did in 1993.  1993 2014

One Of The Last Pictures Taken At The World Trade Center Posted: 11 Sep 2014 10:49 AM PDT On September 10th 2001, this family was one of the last families to stand at the top of the World Trade Center. The picture is now haunting knowing what would happen the next day.

When Evolution Goes Wrong Posted: 11 Sep 2014 10:09 AM PDT Are these things getting better or worse? You be the judge.

Gouy Zhingzhing Tests The Firmness Of Her Breasts Posted: 11 Sep 2014 09:40 AM PDT A website in China challenged fitness model Gouy Zhingzhing to test the firmness of her breasts. It turns out, those things are pretty damn strong.

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"We Will Only Grow Stronger"

Here's what's going on at the White House today.         DAILY SNAPSHOT Thursday, September 11, 2014             Featured "We Will Only Grow Stronger" Thirteen years ago today, our nation was irrevocably changed by horrific acts of terror that took the lives of thousands of innocent people. Across the country, Americans pay tribute to their memories and honor all those who have made great sacrifices in service to our country. At 8:46 a.m. ET this morning -- the time that the first plane hit the World Trade Center -- President Obama, First Lady Michelle Obama, and Vice President Joe Biden joined Americans in observing a moment of silence. The President and First Lady then joined Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, servicemen and women, survivors, and the families of victims at the 9/11 memorial at the Pentagon. At the memorial, the President spoke to all who lost loved ones that day, and who have inspired a nation with their determination to carry on and live lives worthy of their memories. See more from today's events commemorating the 13th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, and Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, listen to the national anthem during the September 11th Observance Ceremony at the Pentagon Memorial in Arlington, Va., Sept. 11, 2014. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)       Top Stories President Obama: "We Will Degrade and Ultimately Destroy ISIL" In an address from the State Floor of the White House last night, President Obama spoke to the nation about ISIL -- and our comprehensive strategy to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group. READ MORE AmeriCorps: Changing Lives, Changing America Twenty years ago, our nation started a new chapter in our proud tradition of citizen service. AmeriCorps represented a new way of getting things done: passionate citizens making an intense commitment to solve problems and improve the lives of others while expanding opportunity for themselves. READ MORE Vice President Biden Marks the 20th Anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act This week, Vice President Biden marked the 20th Anniversary of the landmark Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) -- a landmark law that empowered women and children to expose and prosecute domestic violence. The signing of the law marked the end of an arduous road to pass the legislation, and put our society on the path toward effectively combating such heinous crimes. READ MORE       Today's Schedule All times are Eastern Time (ET) 8:45 AM: The President, Vice President, First Lady, and White House staff observe a moment of silence to mark the 13th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks 9:30 AM: The President and First Lady attend the September 11th Observance Ceremony 12:30 PM: The President and Vice President meet for lunch 1:00 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Josh Earnest 2:55 PM: The President and Vice President meet with Secretary of Health and Human Services Burwell 5:20 PM: The President and First Lady participate in a service project   Facebook     Twitter    |   More Ways to Engage Did Someone Forward This to You? Sign Up for Email Updates This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

The Marketer's Guide to Facebook Graph Search

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The Marketer's Guide to Facebook Graph Search Posted: 10 Sep 2014 05:15 PM PDT Posted by SimonPenson Social search has long been heralded as the "next big thing." The opportunity to create the search engine for people is too enticing; the prize being held above all others in the race to build the next Google. Facebook is widely recognised as the only company other than the search giant itself capable of creating such a product, and it's one of the key reasons behind its enormous  price-to-earnings ratio. Few are investing on the strength of the current format; instead they know that the data it has at its fingertips could be world-changing in terms of information retrieval and advertising. And that project began in earnest, publicly at least, with the launch of Graph Search in 2013. At the time the product lacked any significant features and after a short fanfare, marketers' focus shifted elsewhere. The engineers, however, had very clear instructions to iterate, fast, and the results of that work are now starting to float to the surface. What is graph search? Graph Search is Facebook's way of mapping all the data we give the platform together in a really useful way. It is by far the best example of "Social Search" – the premise of creating a search engine based not on websites but on entities – people, places and things. The company has been quietly iterating it since last year. There's still a long way to go but the foundations are already there for what promises to be the only true rival to Google in the world of information organization and retrieval and only days ago did they start testing new functionality that allows some users to search through content as well as people, interests and things. Search operators So what has changed that makes Facebook's search engine worth talking about again for digital marketers? The answer is the introduction of a large number of much more sophisticated search operators, or ways of searching, layered over the top of a greater connected data set. To help understand what we mean, we have created this free  Facebook Graph Search Cheat Sheet, brimming with many of the useful connotations you may want to use to improve your understanding of your customers, or those of your competitors. This post is about using it specifically to find, learn about, and work with influencers in your space and build out a much more detailed picture of your existing and prospective audiences. Using Graph Search Before you can even begin extracting useful information from the platform, however, you need to check to see if you have access to the full search facility. To do that there is a very simple little hack that involves changing your language settings. Claiming Graph Search If you are reading this from the US then chances are you will already have Graph Search by default. That is not the case for all. If you fall outside of this and still have the painfully poor old search box you must head into settings to change this. To do it search for your settings in the top nav. Next, go to the General account settings and change your language to English (US) and hey, presto: You should now have enabled Graph Search. Marketing uses There will undoubtedly be scores more ways for marketers to use Graph Search as the months roll on and functionality improves, but as we examine the options today we can divide them into five key areas: Audience insight Influencer discovery Influencer research GSO – Graph Search optimization Advertising 1. Audience insight Number one on the list has to be the ability it gives you to join the dots in your audience research work. The endless hours I and other marketers spent sitting behind one way screens as part of ethnography research group work in past decades made true insight very labour-intensive and expensive. It was also only partially effective, as by the time data from these methods was processed it was often weeks, or even months, old. Not for one moment am I saying, however, that those methods have no value, as getting in front of your audience to see how they really use or interact with your product(s) can be extremely useful. But the data pot is small. Where you can really start to trust your findings is when the data you are handling is "big," aggregating the beliefs of tens of thousands of current or potential customers. So, how does Graph Search help? Let's look at that in a little more detail. Initial research We have already discussed how the functionality of Facebook's search engine has come on in leaps and bounds and here we can start putting that to use. We've created a free cheat sheet to help you navigate the scores of search operators ( download it here). Let's look at a couple of examples in real time now so you can see how it works. For this run-through we've chosen a brand in the UK entertainment space, but we have kept the brand anonymous. The process of running through that data, however, should give you a very good understanding of how to work through this, step-by-step, for your own brand. To begin with, we can start with something relatively simple: A look at other pages liked by those that like the brand. This helps create a better understanding of the other interests of the audience: To achieve this, search for: "Pages liked by people who like INSERT BRAND". As yet, however, we are not getting into anything especially insightful. To really dive into the exciting data we must find a way of segmenting these random brand and page affinities with broader interest sets. To do this we can again lean on Graph Search to provide us with that detail. To achieve this search for: "favorite interests of people who like INSERT BRAND". As you can see, there are already some revealing interests coming to the fore, and we'll look at those in greater detail a little later. As with any research, however, results can be skewed by small data sets, and so to bulk out those numbers it is possible to combine your brand with others in the same space. To achieve this search for: "favorite interests of people who like INSERT BRAND and INSERT COMPETITOR". Once you have a list of relevant and useful results, the options are almost endless, and it is at this point that you can decide to add extra depth to the areas that matter most. For instance, for our example brand it is important to understand what drinks and food the audience likes, as they run a large number of "brick-and-mortar" outlets. To achieve this search for: 'favorite 'DRINK/FOOD' of people who like 'INSERT BRAND'. And given that discussions may be ongoing around brand ambassadors it may be useful to extract some information about favourite celebrities, musicians or entertainers. To achieve this search for: 'favorite 'DRINK/FOOD' of people who like 'INSERT BRAND'. The results here can be truly eye opening – and there is still more you can dig into, which we'll look at a little later. Quantitative data The challenge with the above is that while it can give you significant qualitative insight the problem is gauging just how much of your audience shares that same interest. It's all well and good creating content to suit individuals, but you may be wide of the mark if you don't have a fuller view of shared interests. Thankfully, however, there is a way to get just that. I've written previously here about extracting social data for use in informing strategy and we can use that same principle here to add the richness we need to give us the confidence necessary to make real decisions. The science bit Grabbing that data is easier than you think and while it's not perfect the result is worth the effort. Here's how it works. There are no fancy tools either I'm afraid, just a little bit of simple math, and to help make that process as hassle free as possible we've already built this simple calculator, which should make the process as pain-free as possible. Step one Start by jumping onto Facebook's Ad Centre and click 'create ad'. You'll then be presented with this screen. Click on any of these, but we'll use the Page Likes option here. Once in the console scroll down until you get to the Audience section. Start by selecting the geography you wish to look at. You can choose to focus on a global audience by default, but for this study we have chosen the UK. On the right hand side you'll then be able to see how many people fit the selection. For instance, here we can see that there are 36,000,000 people in the UK on Facebook. The next step is to add the audience interest. This can be anything from an interest to a brand, so let's start with our example entertainment brand (BRAND A). The right-hand column now tells us that there are 96,000 people in the UK that 'Like' them. The next step is to start to understand a little more about those interests we saw earlier using Graph Search. Remember the pole dancing 'interest'. Who couldn't? The question is, just how many of those who already show an affinity with the brand 'Like' this alternative entertainment activity when compared to the average person? Benchmarking To do that we simply add pole dancing to our brand audience as you can see below and it gives us the combined audience of 126,000 people. OK so far? Now comes the math part – and this is where the calculator can come in useful. Below we can see the formula that sits behind the calculator and this will give us a better understanding of just how much our audience likes pole dancing. Taking the numbers we have just talked through we can now create a sum that looks a little like this and it tells us that 6.25% of the brand's audience likes pole dancing. That feels like a high percentage but, feeling is not good enough. We need to know for certain and to truly understand what that means we need to look at the average person and then compare the two. To do that we work through the same process by first getting the number for the UK Facebook audience and the pole dancing audience separately. And we can then use this simple formula to work out what percentage of the average Facebook audience likes pole dancing. The result here is that just 0.1% of the average audience likes this particular interest. The brand audience just got very interesting, as there is a huge over-indexing of this particular interest. We know, therefore, that content around this subject matter will resonate! The idea from here is to then rinse and repeat this process for multiple interests so you can chart them against each other like this: This is where we really start to understand our audience. The pink column represents the example brand's audience and the blue the average Facebook audience. We can clearly see where the over indexing is. Those are the interests you want to really concentrate on as part of your content plan, as you know there is a high propensity to engage. Competition ideas Graph Search can also be used to refine those content ideas. Let's say, for instance, that you are running a competition to win restaurant vouchers. Rather than generically doing the same thing for everyone in the UK why not look to see if there is a North/South, or state divide? Below we have used the same process as previously described but also looked at how location affects affinity with different restaurant brands. The data above suggests there is a definite North/South divide and the marketer would be better offering McDonalds or Nandos vouchers to those in Manchester and Frankie and Benny chain coupons to those in London for better engagement. 2. Influencer discovery Another area that Graph Search can really help marketers with is in finding key influencers and evangelists – both of which are critical to today's marketing plans. There are several ways you can do this. To begin with let's take a look at our example brand once more and start uncovering those people with the most potential reach. We are able to use a couple of more advanced Graph Search operators to see whose attention they may already have. A great place to start is by looking at the blogosphere in a little more detail, and that starts with this search: We can immediately see here that there are a number of people that run blogs and already like the brand; a brilliant conversation opener when you reach out to them. And if you struggle to find bloggers who do follow the brand then why not utilize this search instead to see if they follow, or are friends with, people who work for the brand? We can see here which other options are available to us in this section of Facebook's data set if we want to refine our search. It doesn't end here, either, as there are many more nuances available: And if larger sites are your ultimate targets then a search for journalists is also possible, as below: While you can also refine by location if your campaign needs to target a country, region or city: Should you wish to refine that search further still you can target specific publications. Our search here for The Telegraph newspaper in the UK brings up more than 1,000 people, many of whom are key journalists: And we can then use the internal search tool to refine further by job title: By using it to find "writers," it creates this search, and we have a list of 12 people to then connect with via LinkedIn or via a call to the newspaper's news desk. 3. Influencer research The value that Graph Search can bring to your marketing plan doesn't end there either. Using it to paint your audience understanding picture and discovering influencers in your network is obviously very powerful in itself but you can also use the platform to add further colour to your influencer pitches. As journalists are pitched to every hour of the day, warming that conversation with some prior intelligence can make the difference between success and failure. It's possible to find out a lot about individuals with this same process and give you a much better understanding of the journalist you want to work with as a result. Take this search for example. Let's say we want to find out more about the Assistant Editor at The Telegraph magazine, discovered with this little search: We can then use many of the searches previously mentioned to build a really good picture of his interests, and what makes him tick. Knowing that he clearly supports Tottenham Hotspur and that he will be excited about the new Inbetweeners movie coming out gives you a brilliant "in" and conversation warmer. And we can even see where he likes to spend time. Below you can see one of many searches that use Bing's map functionality to bring extra location-based insight. It gives us the places the Assistant Editor has visited: It's this area of Graph Search that could offer the most promise in the long term, and I would be worried if I ran Tripadvisor or any other review-based site, on this evidence. While review sites are generally based on the general public view Facebook is able to slice and dice to give you the views of anyone from your friends or family to those with similar interests or ages to you—trusted reviews from people you know and or respect. 4. GSO – Graph Search optimization If Graph Search is going to become more useful then the likelihood is that people will start using it more and that means one thing; the birth of Graph Search optimization, or GSO. Being at the top of those lists could drive significant traffic to brand pages and understanding how Facebook orders that will be key. There is very little information on this area at present but logic suggests that the same signals used to order Facebook's activity wall would apply to Graph Search. This may mean that Likes and the new links with extra weight given to Likes from people and pages with the largest audiences. The more authoritative the person or brand behind the connection the greater the impact on Graph Search rankings. If you then throw page actions into the mix, such as content likes, shares and comments as well as app usage and so on, you soon build up a clear picture of how GSO may work. Could this mean that the digital PR of the future includes work to incentivize key influencers to Like Facebook Pages, or engage with key content? Only time will tell. And given the fact that the Menlo Park company is already testing a search facility for content, this area will undoubtedly become more important still. 5. Advertising The value of the insight also extends to social advertising. Given that CPCs are often higher in important commercial niches, it can really pay to understand where else your audience may be interacting. If, for instance, those you want to target are also very likely to have an affinity with gardening, then creating ad groups to test your advertising in that niche can often result in a reduction in CPCs. Not all interest sets will work here and in practice it is a good idea to create six or more campaigns targeting the top shared interests and then run them for a day or so to see how they perform. Takeaways Graph Search is here to stay and will increasingly become a major weapon in any marketers' armory as we all look for ways of making our strategies and campaigns smarter and more effective. The audience insight it gives and ability to drill down into the minutia is what those investing in Facebook see as its real value, and they've clearly only just started opening the treasure chest. 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School's in Session at Moz Academy Posted: 10 Sep 2014 04:15 AM PDT Posted by Nick_Sayers The onset of fall sharpens the air. Kids laboriously lug stacks of books and binders to class. Teachers puzzle over their lesson plans for the year. Lockers that were once empty now overflow with paper, and quiet hallways fill with the chatter of eager minds. School is finally back in session. In the spirit of fall and the start of school, we think it's a perfect time to open up Moz Academy to our community! If you've never heard of Moz Academy, let me give you an earful! At Moz, we really want people to be awesome marketers so they can use our products in fun ways and make the Internet way cooler, with less spam and garbage content. We've got a ton of terrific instructors at Moz, but Moz Academy has so much SEO knowledge that it'll make teachers out of all of you! Over the past year we've added more than 30 videos to Moz Academy. One of my favorite lesson plans shows off how you can use Moz Pro to help with your day-to-day marketing. We're also proud to offer a comprehensive Local SEO section that we built with our good friends over at LocalU. To give you a sense for what we've got, we wanted to show you some of our favorite Academy lectures! First up: Listen to Steve Martin look-alike Cyrus Shepard tell you how to size up your competition in Moz Pro—like a pro. Next, listen to the mustached master of SEO, Rand Fishkin, instruct us on how to correctly implement redirects. If you're into advanced filtering in Google Analytics, listen to Tim Resnik's explanation of how to segment your search traffic into verticals by pulling a parameter from the URLs in the SERPS. Our own Jen "Don't call me J-LO" Lopez, gives us a crash course on measuring your social media efforts. Finally, Mike Ramsey from Nifty Marketing can help you get a handle on creating local content. Now that school is back in session we hope you're excited to start learning again. Please enjoy Moz Academy and share the lessons with folks learning SEO or trying to get a nice refresh. Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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