Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Mariupol Exchange Rates vs. Laughable "Official" Rate: Foreign Exchange Intervention; IMF Calling the Shots?
- In Search of the Magic Wand: Career Change at Age 45 Possible?
- Ukraine Hyperinflation; Currency Plunges 44% in One Week! Actual Black Market Rates; Poroshenko Gives "Ultimatum" to Central Bank to Fix Exchange Rate
- Emails From Kiev: Free Speech Vanishes, Total Media Thought Control; US Radar System Falls Into Rebel Hands?
| Posted: 25 Feb 2015 07:15 PM PST Colonel Cassad reports It Takes 44 Hryvnia to Buy a Dollar in Mariupol.  Let's do some quick math. On Monday (perhaps reflective of Sunday) Ellen, who lives in Kiev wrote "Today $1 is worth 36 hryvnias on the black market. A Week ago it was 20 hryvnais. No one knows where the bottom is. People buy anything just to get rid of hryvnias." To be safe, let's call it 10 days ago. In those 10 days, the hryvnia plunged from 20 to the dollar to 44 to the dollar. That is a decline of 54.54% in about 10 days. Here is the key "People buy anything just to get rid of hryvnias". Laughable "Official" Rate Here is an amusing chart from Investing.Com for February 25.  I explain that chart below. Meanwhile, rest assured that not a damn thing transacts at that rate other than perhaps graft and illegal transactions by bankers and Ukrainian officials selling 25 hryvnias for a dollar. Poroshenko Ultimatum Earlier today I wrote ... Poroshenko Gives "Ultimatum" to Central Bank to Fix Exchange Rate At a live press conference on the currency market, Poroshenko ordered the Chairman of the National Bank and the Finance Minister to Stabilize the Hryvnia at the "Budget" Rate of 21.5 hryvnia per dollar.Amazing Reversal Yesterday, February 24, the central bank put on currency restriction. Today we see National Bank has Overturned Yesterday's Foreign Currency Ban. National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) eased restrictions on foreign exchange market and abolished the prohibition of authorized banks to buy foreign currency on behalf of customers of the 26th and 27th of February.IMF Calling the Shots? The only thing that makes any sense in this mess is the IMF demanded Ukraine stabilize the hryvnia. The National Bank of Ukraine attempted stabilization with a farce of a move that no one on the street believes. And if the central bank supplies all demands at 22-27 per US dollar while the black market bid/ask is 32:44 (equating to an instant arbitrage profit in spite of the massive spread), all Ukraine's foreign reserves will be wiped out in a week. Alas, it appears there is a $50,000 restriction on such moves, reserved for imports, limited to special accounts, with the waiting period increasing from three to four days. Fake Receipts The street laughs at the official rates, and so do I. Meanwhile, I wonder how many fake import receipts have been generated recently. Prime Minister Accuses Central Bank of Negligence Yesterday Ukraine's Prime Minister Accused the National Bank of Negligence. The Prime Minister of Ukraine complains that the NBU did not take control of output currency abroad for import contracts. According to him, during the last 9 months, the financial market has sold $51.5 billion.Currency Speculation? Incompetence? Shocking! Say it ain't so Joe. Incompetence? Negligence? You bet. It would be difficult to find a central banker on the planet that is truly competent. By definition, no one competent could even take the job because they would not believe in central bank planning in the first place. That said, some are more incompetent than others. Appraisal of Ukraine's Prime Minister First, I have a couple of choice comments regarding Ukraine's prime minister.
Abandon Ship! I don't have a competence rating for Valery Gontareva, but I do have advice: Get the hell out of Ukraine immediately. When you are dealing with hyperinflation and the prime minister accuses you of negligence, arrest is likely coming unless you stabilize the currency, and that is impossible by decree. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| In Search of the Magic Wand: Career Change at Age 45 Possible? Posted: 25 Feb 2015 01:03 PM PST Reader Mark has a career question. Mark writes ... Hi Mish: I am 45 years old. I have worked in the grocery business for 20 years. I am starting to have back problems. I would like to move on. Do you have any suggestions as to a suitable career for someone my age. I do read your blog, and I can relate to the money business. Thanks, Mark Formal Education is No Magic Wand Hi Mark Unfortunately, and in spite of what the education industry would like you to believe, I present a sobering reality: A career change at age 45 or even 55 is possible, but extremely difficult. Traditional education is highly unlikely to give you the skills you need. Occasionally someone hits the jackpot, but most likely you would waste money, and lots of it trying. Don't believe hype from places like the University of Phoenix. From information technology (IT), to banking, to writing, to market analysis, to dog catching, corporations will want experience. Even college interns have difficulty finding jobs. In IT, there are hundreds of thousands of skilled workers out of a job and competing with programmers in India or Russia. In banking or finance (if not everything), my honest assessment is that someone would look at your age and experience and pass you over for someone younger, someone with more experience, or both. Your safest plan is to make an effort without spending much, if any money. I suggest some free courses at the Khan Academy, Coursera or elsewhere. That would put something on your resume of relevance, and more importantly would show prudent motivation. Instead, if you drain your savings on training, the most likely thing is you will be exactly where you are, but without your savings. Please don't pick a career for the money. Selecting a career based on pay is not the road to happiness. Find something you really want to do. That has to come from within. In the meantime, if you have physical issues, you should strongly consider mentioning them to your current employer, perhaps asking for a different type of position that is less physically demanding. Finally, please be realistic about your expectations. Consider anything that gets your foot in the door at a company you would like to work for. Good luck to you. And please keep reading. I have more below. How to Find an Authentic Career A Gallup Study that reviewed 25 million responses in 189 different countries shows 30% are happy with their job, 20% are miserable, and the rest are going through the motions, at best. Finding a new career is very difficult but not impossible. I have written about this before. Please consider Majority Hate Their Job but Only 25% Looking; How to Find Your Way to an Authentic Career In the above link, I describe my own career change thrust upon me, and a career change by Adam Taggart, co-founder of Peak Prosperity with Chris Martenson. A career change at 45 is possible, I managed to do it at age 50. Adam tells me he was a reader of this blog and he decided that if I could make a career change, he could too. Others can make a career change as well, but it takes lots of dedication and motivation, and likely a good dose of luck as well. Many helped me along the way as noted in Financial Blogger Profile of "Mish" on Equities.Com. By the way, I failed to mention one extremely helpful person in the above link. His name is Neil, a hedge fund manager in the UK. At the time I made my career change, I knew nothing about the stock market, nothing about investing, and nothing about the economy. Fifteen years ago, if someone told me I would have an income from writing and being an investment advisor I would have thought they belonged in the loonie bin. Yet here I am, and hopefully it's obvious that I really enjoy what I'm doing. Education was important for me, and I had many good teachers along the way, all online, all free. It can be done, but it is not easy. Good luck! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 25 Feb 2015 10:44 AM PST I hear various reports of what the hryvnia actually trades for on the black market in Ukraine. I believe the reports, but they come in piecemeal. Today, I have an actual black market link to share thanks to reader Oleg from Crimea. In response to Ukrainian Currency Comparison: Budget Rate vs. Official Rate vs. Interbank Rate vs. Street Rate reader Oleg Writes ... Hello Mish!Currency Limits The official foreign exchange limit is 3000 hryvnias per day, down from 15,000 a year ago. That's less than $100 a day. That limit is posted in Changes in Currency Control Rules (in English). The Exchange Tax, not in English, is up from 0.5% to 2.0%. In a second email Oleg comments "It's a pretty widespread practice to ask around when you need to sell dollars/euros because there are tons of willing buyers at a very competitive price compared to official exchange places. Of course, going straight to the black market is risky in many respects. However, importers frequently turn to such exchanges because they need currency and cannot obtain it by official means." Black Market As I said previously, no one gets the "official" rate exchanging hryvnia for dollars other than corrupt banks officials taking advantage of the rigged system. I am not sure who gets the interbank rate and in what quantities. But anyone who needs hard currency above and beyond what they can get at the interbank rate has little choice other than the black market sites that have sprung up. Black Market Exchange Site Please consider the appropriately named Black Market Exchange. The site amusingly warns "Please note that the violation of the order and conditions of sale and purchase transactions of foreign currency, the perpetrators of such violations shall be liable in accordance with Art. 162 of the Code of Administrative Offenses, according to which the illegal purchase, sale, exchange, use of currency values as a means of payment or collateral - entail a warning or a fine of thirty to forty-four times the income of citizens with confiscation of currency values." The way it works is by phone. You see an exchange rate you like, make a call to the posted phone number, meet and do a deal. The word "course" translates as "exchange rate". Some of the offers are nonsensical. Scroll down to offers that have a strike-through. Those allegedly represent completed transactions at the shown rate. I do not believe some of the executed transactions. Others look reasonable. Currency Converter The Currency Converter, part of the same website, seems more reasonable. Average Black Market Rates  Average Bank Rates  Rates Revisited Yesterday, I noted The Dollar on the Interbank Market was Fixed at Around 33.5/USD. Ukraine's international newspaper, The Mirror (available in English), reported on February 16, Ukrainian Government Changes Rate to UAH 21.7/USD in 2015 Budget. The "official" rate yesterday was 28.29/USD. I can now complete a table whose last line yesterday read like this "Street: Unknown but assuredly higher". We can now reasonably quantify "unknown". Exchange Rates
All of the above for Monday, 2015-02-24. Hyperinflation? At the beginning of 2014, the exchange rate was 8.21 per dollar. From 8.21 to 38.5 is a decline of 78.6% in just over a year. This morning in Emails From Kiev: Free Speech Vanishes, Total Media Thought Control; US Radar System Falls Into Rebel Hands? I quoted "Ellen" who lives in Kiev. Ellen, who lives in Kiev writes "Today $1 is worth 36 hryvnias on the black market. A Week ago it was 20 hryvnais. No one knows where the bottom is. People buy anything just to get rid of hryvnias." That's a decline of 44.44% in one week! And if you use the 38.5 black market rate, the weekly decline is 48%. In my book, that is hyperinflation, complete with that attitude that does with it: "People buy anything just to get rid of hryvnias." And where will it stop? Full Scale War Ukraine's deputy foreign minister announced a "Full Scale War" on Saturday. For details, please see "Prepare for Full-Scale War" says Ukraine Deputy Foreign Minister: "With What?" asks Mish; Ukraine Lie of the Day. Ukraine is broke. It has no means to fight a war. Nonetheless, Ukraine is dedicated to fighting the impossible to win war, with foreign currency reserves dwindling. Insistence on more fighting will produce more of the same results. Except now the US is involved in a not-so clandestine way (See Emails From Kiev: Free Speech Vanishes, Total Media Thought Control; US Radar System Falls Into Rebel Hands?) Poroshenko Gives "Ultimatum" to Central Bank to Fix Exchange Rate To put the finishing touches on the hyperinflation story, at a live press conference on the currency market, Poroshenko ordered the Chairman of the National Bank and the Finance Minister to Stabilize the Hryvnia at the "Budget" Rate of 21.5 hryvnia per dollar. During an online broadcast, Poroshenko issued an ultimatum demanding the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Valerie Gontareva, stabilize the hryvnia at a level which was guided by Cabinet in approving changes to the 2015 budget. Poroshenko is not only a military fool, this rate change by mandate while fighting a stupid war proves he is an economic fool as well. Of course Mish readers knew that long ago. I advise Hontaryevoyi to get out of Ukraine while she still can. Addendum - Street Rates in Lviv Reader John, who speaks Ukrainian, and whose father payed a key role in the Ukrainian resistance in WWII, has a sister who lives in Lviv, a beautiful town in Western Ukraine. He got "street" rates from his sister, just moments after I posted the above. John writes ... Hello MishUkraine faces an IMF funding decision on March 11. Clearly it's not going well. I knew that was the purpose of the ultimatum. John provided the date. Black market street rate in Lviv is now 39-to-1 if you want to buy dollars. Addendum Two - Translations In my previous post, I requested a better translation of "Накануне супруга журналиста сообщила, что он задержан СБУ по подозрению в госизмене". The Google translation was "suspicion of SBU gosizmene". Many readers confirmed my translation assumption that gosizmene meant treason. Reader Andrei offers this translation and explanation "Yesterday the journalist's wife informed that Ukraniane Secret Services detained her husband on suspicion of treason". Andrei explains "gosizmena" is a shorter version of "gosudarstvennaya izmena" which means "treason against the government" Reader "Silver" commented: "Try Yandex for translations. It tends to be much more accurate than Google or Bing." I tried it. Here is the Yandex Translation: "On the eve of the wife of the journalist reported, he SBU detained on suspicion of treason." That's quite broken, yet understandable. Yandex did get the word treason correct. Google translated it as the non-word "gosizmene". This is what I go through every day, in many languages. I am getting better at guessing words. Many have volunteered to help, but my hours are not normal to say the least. I frequently write at 3:00AM. Thanks to all who responded. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 25 Feb 2015 12:12 AM PST Free Speech Vanishes - Total Media Thought Control I have a couple emails from Ukraine to share, one from two days ago, one from yesterday. Both are from "Ellen" who lives in Kiev (name changed). Two Days Ago From Ellen As you know, the Debaltsevo pocket situation is resolved. It's not as bad as it could have been in terms of casualties. However, this was a crashing defeat of Poroshenko's generals.UAE Sells Arms to Ukraine, Currency Plunges More Yesterday From Ellen .... News today is Ukraine will buy arms from UAE, perhaps arms that Americans previously sold to UAE. Poroshenko signed the contract, but we do not know what exactly Ukraine is buying.No-So Clandestine US Weapons Shipments Colonel Cassad describes UAE anti-tank offerings in Arms supplies to Ukraine. Given that Obama, despite pressure from the Pentagon and the Senate, has not yet taken a decision, it seems that a "buffer" scheme has been activated, whereby a country dependent on the U.S. is prepared to ship arms to Ukraine, essentially becoming a sort of middleman through which American weapons systems are sent to Ukraine. These can come in the guise of "arms from the UAE", with the U.S. seemingly uninvolved.TOW Anti-Tank Missiles  BGM-71 TOW Description Wikipedia describes the BGM-71 TOW as a "Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided" anti-tank missile. First produced in 1970, the TOW is one of the most widely used anti-tank guided missiles." An optical sensor on the sight continuously monitors the position of a light source on the missile relative to the line-of-sight, and then corrects the trajectory of the missile by generating electrical signals that are passed down two wires to command the control surface actuators. Lethal Aid On February 7, Stratfor wrote US Considering Lethal Aid to Ukraine. A significant portion of the anti-tank weapons Ukraine owns are old and likely inoperable. Moreover, only a few effective weapons such as the 9K115-2 Metis-M, indigenous Skif missile and RPB-29 are in its stockpiles. If the United States or its NATO allies were to transfer Javelin anti-tank guided missiles or heavier crew-served TOW missiles to Kiev, it could give Ukrainian troops a credible capability against separatist and Russian heavy armor.That just happened. Expect Russia to respond in kind. And expect more deaths. Renewed Fighting Around Mariupol Earlier today Yahoo! News reported Ukraine Rebels Fill Hospital as Clashes Flare Around Mariupol US Radar System Falls Into Rebel Hands? One of the problems in sending top-notch equipment to Ukraine is what happens to it. For example Colonel Cassad reports ... "Among the trophies in the Debaltsevo area was a damaged American mortar counter-battery radar system. The junta claims that during the flight of the 128th Brigade its soldiers were able to wreck it. But there is some doubt seeping through these claims. It is likely that the radar, in one condition or another, passed into the hands of the Novorossia Armed Forces, which means that it will get to Russia and be studied, as happened with American hardware captured during the Olympic (2008 Russia-Georgia) war." I do not know the equipment, or the significance, but if Cassad thinks it happened, history suggests it probably did. Say Something Against the Draft - Go to Jail Ellen commented "Total mobilization is underway. Anyone who refuses to join the army will go to jail". It's a bit worse than that. If you call for a boycott of mobilization, you will be arrested. Please consider Prosecutor Calls for Arrest of Journalists who Protest Mobilization. In mid-January, journalist Ruslan Kotsaba recorded a video in which called for the abandonment of the mobilization.I need a better translation of "Накануне супруга журналиста сообщила, что он задержан СБУ по подозрению в госизмене" vs. Google translation of "suspicion of SBU gosizmene". I suspect that phrase and/or Part 1 of Article 111 and Part 1 of Article 114 pertain to treason or subversion. Anti-Draft Agitation - Eight Years in Prison Here's a literal headline translation that's easy to understand: "For Agitation in Social Networks Against Mobilization Can Collect Up to 8 Years". Conscription of Minivan Here's a final post that shows who we are supporting. The prosecutor's office in Kharkov starts Criminal Proceedings on a Corporation's Refusal to Turn Over Minivan for Military Use. In Kharkov, prosecutors opened criminal proceedings on the failure of one of the companies within the mobilization region to transfer a minivan for the needs of the APU.Hiding a Minivan Sheesh. From the last paragraph above, it appears this company was charged because it concealed a minivan. For now, I believe this type of thuggery is primarily happening in Eastern cities not under separatist control. I don't think they would dare do this in Kiev yet. If they did, I would expect an uprising if not takedown of Poroshenko. Recall that Ellen said "Maybe this anger will be out on the streets soon." The problem is, the asshats associated with Poroshenko are even worse than he is. Addendum: Regarding my request for a better translation of "Накануне супруга журналиста сообщила, что он задержан СБУ по подозрению в госизмене" vs. Google translation of "suspicion of SBU gosizmene" ... Many readers confirmed my translation assumption of treason. The most offered context was along the lines of "He was taken by the SBU (Ukrainian KGB) for suspicion of treason." Reader "Silver" commented: "Try Yandex for translations. It tends to be much more accurate than Google or Bing." I tried it. Here is the Yandex Translation: "On the eve of the wife of the journalist reported, he SBU detained on suspicion of treason." That's quite broken, yet understandable. Yandex did get the word treason correct. Google translated it as the non-word "gosizmene". This is what I go through every day, in many languages. I am getting better at guessing words. Many have volunteered to help, but my hours are not normal to say the least. I frequently write at 3:00AM. Thanks to all who responded. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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