Central Perk: 1 mar. 2014

sâmbătă, 1 martie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

France Becoming Increasingly Euroskeptic: Poll Shows 52% of Workers Want to Leave the Euro, Only 34% of Workers Believe EU is a Good Thing

Posted: 01 Mar 2014 02:45 PM PST

The following bullet points are from the French Ipos Poll: New French fractures, results and analysis of the Ipsos/Steria.

Although a huge majority of French want to stay on the Euro, a majority of "workers" don't.

Poll Conclusions

79% distrust the outside world
72% have no confidence in the French National Assembly
74% think journalists do not write about the real problems
66% think there are too many foreigners in France
63% say Islam is not compatible with values of French society
84% think politicians act for personal reasons
70% Want strengthening of national power away from EU (up 5 percentage points from last poll)
33% want to exit the euro (up 5 percentage points)
52% of workers want to exit the euro (up 8 percentage points)
45% think membership in the EU is a good thing, 40% think it's bad
34% of workers think membership in the EU is a good thing

Kevin O'rourke on the Irish Economy blog comments Class divides and European Integration, Yet Again.

This morning's Eurointelligence briefing put me on to this article in Les Echos, which in turn led me to this Ipsos opinion poll. It contains several sobering findings, notably with respect to foreigners. But the finding that struck me most — since this is something I have been writing about for years now — is that a majority of French working class voters now want to leave the Euro. Indeed, only 34% of French workers think that EU membership is a good thing.

Isn't it amazing how short run blips in various economic indicators can lead powerful people to assume that all is well with the EMU project? It is slow moving variables — long term unemployment, gradual shifts in public opinion, and so on — that pose the greatest threat to the Euro's survival. If the far right does as well as people now seem to think it will in the European elections, this will presumably be presented in the media as a "shock" to the system, but has it not been obvious since 2010 at the latest that something like this was likely, given Eurozone macroeconomic policies? And has it not been obvious for years that actually existing EMU is harming the broader European project?

Europe's political leaders should remember what Ernest Hemingway said about bankruptcy.

Ernest Hemingway, 'The Sun Also Rises'

"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked.
"Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

Painful Choice

In case you missed it, please see Stiglitz: Leaving the Euro Painful but Staying in More Painful; Eurozone Breakup Recap.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Russian Troops Seize Crimea; UN Security Council Meets; Russian Flag Raised in Kharkiv

Posted: 01 Mar 2014 01:07 PM PST

News is fast and furious in Ukraine.

Putin received approval to send Russian troops into Ukraine from Russian parliament.
Russian troops seized Crimea
Russian anti-submarine warships appear off Ukraine coast near Sevastopol in violation of naval agreement
Ukraine troops are on combat notice.
UN Security Council meets.
Obama warns Russia

The Telegraph has a live blog on Ukraine going with some of those headlines and this image of Kharkiv in which protesters have raised the Russian flag.

Russian Troops Seize Crimea
Reuters reports Troops Seize Crimea.

Talk of confrontation or outright war spread rapidly across Ukraine, with pro-Moscow demonstrators raising the Russian flag above government buildings in several cities and anti-Russian politicians calling for mobilization.

Troops with no uniform insignia but clearly Russian - some in vehicles with Russian number plates - have already seized Crimea, an isolated peninsula in the Black Sea where Moscow has a large military presence in the headquarters of its Black Sea Fleet. Kiev's new authorities have been powerless to intervene.

Western capitals scrambled for a response, but so far this has been limited to angry words from Washington and its European allies.

So far there has been no sign of Russian military action in Ukraine outside Crimea, the only part of the country with a Russian ethnic majority, which has often voiced separatist aims.

As tension built on Saturday, demonstrations occasionally turned violent in eastern cities, where most people, though ethnically Ukrainian, are Russian speakers, and many support deposed President Viktor Yanukovich and Moscow.

Demonstrators flew Russian flags at government buildings in the cities of Kharkiv, Donetsk, Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk.

In Kharkiv, scores of people were wounded in clashes when thousands of pro-Russian activists stormed the regional government headquarters, and fought pitched battles with a smaller number of supporters of Ukraine's new authorities.

Pro-Russian demonstrators wielded axe handles and chains against those defending the building with plastic shields.

In Donetsk, Yanukovich's home region, lawmakers declared they were seeking a referendum on the region's status.

"We do not recognize the authorities in Kiev, they are not legitimate," protest leader Pavel Guberev thundered from a podium in Donetsk.

Thousands of followers, holding a giant Russian flag and chanting "Russia, Russia" marched to the government headquarters and replaced the Ukrainian flag with Russia's.

Coal miner Gennady Pavlov said Putin's declaration of the right to intervene was "right".

"It is time to put an end to this lawlessness. Russians are our brothers. I support the forces."

"WAR HAS ARRIVED"

Although there was little doubt that the troops without insignia that have already seized Crimea are Russian, the Kremlin has not yet openly confirmed it.

For many in Ukraine, the prospect of a military conflict chilled the blood.

"When a Slav fights another Slav, the result is devastating," said Natalia Kuharchuk, a Kiev accountant.

"God save us."

Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Odessa

ABC News has some additional details in Russian Troops Take Over Ukraine's Crimea Region

Russian troops took over Crimea as the parliament in Moscow gave President Vladimir Putin a green light Saturday to use the military to protect Russian interests in Ukraine. The newly installed government in Kiev was powerless to react to the action by Russian troops based in the strategic region and more flown in, aided by pro-Russian Ukrainian groups.

Ignoring President Barack Obama's warning Friday that "there will be costs" if Russia intervenes militarily, Putin sharply raised the stakes in the conflict over Ukraine's future evoking memories of Cold War brinkmanship.

Ukraine's population of 46 million is divided in loyalties between Russia and Europe, with much of western Ukraine advocating closer ties with the European Union while eastern and southern regions look to Russia for support. Crimea, a semi-autonomous region that Russia gave to Ukraine in the 1950s, is mainly Russian-speaking.

Pro-Russian protests were reported Saturday in the eastern cities of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk and the southern port of Odessa. In Kharkiv, 97 people were injured in clashes between pro-Russia demonstrators who flushed supporters of the new Ukrainian government out of the regional government building and hoisted the Russian flag on top of it, according to the Interfax news agency.

Trenin, of Moscow's Carnegie office, said that Putin could be seeking to "include a Crimea within the Russian Federation and eastern and southern regions of Ukraine forming a separate entity integrated with Russia economically and aligned with it politically."

In Crimea, the new pro-Russian prime minister — who came to power after the gunmen swept into parliament on Thursday — claimed control of the military and police and asked Putin for help in keeping peace. There was no visible presence of Ukrainian troops Saturday.

Crimea only became part of Ukraine in 1954 when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred jurisdiction from Russia, a move that was a mere formality when both Ukraine and Russia were part of the Soviet Union. The Soviet breakup in 1991 meant Crimea landed in an independent Ukraine.

Russia put pressure on Ukraine from another direction when a spokesman for state gas company Gazprom said that Ukraine owed $1.59 billion in overdue bills for imported gas. Sergei Kuprianov said in a statement carried by Russian news wires that the gas arrears would endanger a recent discount granted by Russia.

The Russian payment demand and loss of the discount would accelerate Ukraine's financial crisis. The country is almost broke and seeking emergency credit from the International Monetary Fund.

The tensions barely touched everyday life in Simferopol, the regional capital of Crimea, or anywhere on the peninsula. Children played on swings a few blocks from the parliament building, and most of the city's stores were open. Couples walked hand-in-hand through parks. Crimea's airports — civilian and military — were closed to air traffic, but trains and cars were moving to and from the Ukrainian mainland.

"Things are normal," said Olga Saldovskaia, who was walking through town with her son and grandson. While she doesn't like having gunmen in the streets, like many people in this overwhelmingly ethnic Russian city, she also found their presence reassuring.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Investing in Technology and Infrastructure to Create Jobs

Featured

Weekly Address: Investing in Technology and Infrastructure to Create Jobs

President Obama said he took action this week to launch new manufacturing hubs and expand a competition to fund transformative infrastructure projects. Both are policies aimed at expanding economic opportunity for all by creating jobs and ensuring the long-term strength of the American economy. Congress can boost this effort by passing a bipartisan proposal to create a nationwide network of high-tech manufacturing hubs and taking steps to invest in our nation’s infrastructure – rebuilding our transportation system, creating new construction jobs, and better connecting Americans to economic opportunities.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Weekly Wrap Up

It's the First-Ever White House Film Festival

Students and celebrities walked the White House red carpet yesterday as they entered the first-ever White House Film Festival.

Kal Penn, Bill Nye, and Neil deGrasse Tyson were on hand to showcase the 16 Official Selections, chosen from over 2,500 submissions -- all celebrating the role of technology in the classroom. As you can see, a Presidential selfie was in order.

Last week on "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon," the First Lady asked Americans to show her how they move. She promised that "if we get enough of a response, we'll have a little surprise -- the President, and maybe the Vice President, will show us how they move." Well, you showed us how you move in droves, and the First Lady is keeping her promise.

READ MORE

The Nutrition Label, Revamped

The celebration of Let's Move!'s fourth anniversary continued this week with a major announcement that serves as just one example of how the country is moving toward a new, healthier norm. First Lady Michelle Obama joined Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Margaret Hamburg to reveal proposed updates to the Nutrition Facts label.

The Nutrition Facts label was released for the first time in 1994 and has only been updated once in the past 20 years. The proposed updates reflect the latest scientific information, which ties diet to obesity and chronic diseases. In addition to being redesigned to highlight key parts of the label, such as calories and serving sizes, the proposed label also updates serving sizes to match how much people really eat and requires information about the amount of “added sugars” in a food product.

Vice President Biden stopped by the inaugural episode of "Late Night with Seth Meyers" on Monday, where he spoke about his love of trains, the President's State of the Union address, and more. Behind the scenes, the VP chatted with the new host and guest Amy Poehler and even had gifts for the two of them:

Mr. Vice President, we'd love a train whistle too!

The President made a major announcement earlier this week before delivering remarks about manufacturing innovation:

Yes, President Obama did announce we're building Iron Man. Or maybe he didn't. Either way, it's above our pay grade. We do know that the President made another, more serious announcement of two new manufacturing innovation hubs, one in Chicago and one in the Detroit area, along with a competition for the first of four additional institutes that will will boost advanced manufacturing in the United States and attract the types of high-quality jobs that a growing middle class requires.

As always, to see even more of this week's events, watch the latest episode of West Wing Week:

WATCH NOW

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Seth's Blog : Might as well burn that bridge all the way down to the pilings

Might as well burn that bridge all the way down to the pilings

It's not that hard to have a misstep. In fact, if you interact with enough people, it's certain that you will.

Sometimes, if we're quite lucky, when we get it wrong, the person we wronged will politely point it out to us.

At this point, we have a choice. We can elegantly (and with gratitude) make things right, which often builds a better bridge than we could ever hope for...

Or, in frustration, embarassment and a bit of pique, we can choose to make things worse.

Here are some of the magic words that might help build that bridge:

"I" (not "we" or some magical use of the third person)
"sorry"
"thank you"

When someone gives you gentle feedback, it's because they want to connect, not because they want to help you finish burning down the bridge you ignited in the first place. They don't want an excuse, a clever comeback or a recitation that you're just doing your job.

It's there if you want it.