vineri, 15 mai 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Consumer Confidence Plunges Below Any Economist's Estimate; Consumers Shock Economists

Posted: 15 May 2015 10:04 AM PDT

Consumer confidence is the third miss by economists in a single day. Please consider the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate for Consumer Confidence.


Consumer confidence has fallen back noticeably this month, down more than 6 points to a much lower-than-expected 95.2. This compares very poorly with the Econoday consensus for 103.0 and is even far below the Econoday low estimate of 100.5. The weakness, ominously, is the result of falling assessments of the jobs market, both the current jobs market and expectations for the future jobs market. The second quarter, which is expected to be much stronger than the weather-depressed first quarter, isn't likely to get off to a fast start, at least as far as this report goes.

The most striking weakness in April is the assessment of future conditions with the expectations component down 8.5 points to 87.5 for the weakest reading going all the way back to September. And the most striking weakness among the sub-components is employment, where fewer see more jobs opening up 6 months from now and more see fewer jobs available. This spills over into income where fewer see an increase ahead and more see a decrease.

But also weak is the present situation component which is down more than 2-1/2 points to 106.8 for its weakest reading since December. Here the most closely watched sub-component is the jobs-hard-to-get reading which is up nearly 1 full percentage point to 26.4 percent. This reading will hold back expectations at least to some degree for a big bounce back in the April employment report from a very weak March.

Inflation expectations are down sharply this month, 4 tenths lower to 4.8 percent which is one of the lowest readings of the recovery. Gas prices have been edging higher but are still low, the latter no doubt a major factor behind the latest reading.

Buying plans are mixed with automobile and vacation plans down but not home plans which are up. But home buying won't be a featured activity for consumers if their expectations for employment are weak. Today's report, showing weakness in the jobs assessment and in inflation expectations, won't be pulling forward expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate hike.
Missing the Boat

Not only was the consensus outside the range of reading predictions, economists did not even get the leading sign correct. Economists expected an improvement from 101.3 to 103.0 but instead the index plunged 7.6%.

For more details let's turn to the actual University of Michigan Survey.

University of Michigan Preliminary Results May 2015



Comments by U of M Chief Economist Richard Curtin
Confidence fell in early May as consumers became increasingly convinced that there would be no quick and robust rebound following the dismal 1st quarter (even if the under performance was exaggerated by inadequate seasonal adjustments). The decline was widespread among all age and income subgroups as well as across all regions of the country. In contrast to last year's rapid 2nd quarter revival, this year the economy faces reduced production and employment from lower oil prices, falling exports, and rising imports from a stronger dollar. Although this was not the first time in recent years consumers have abandoned expectations for a faster recovery, the data nonetheless suggest that consumers have remained optimistic about their future personal finances and have maintained their buying plans at reasonably high levels. Overall, at this time the data are still consistent with a 3% growth rate in real personal consumption expenditures during 2015.
Confidence Nonsense

I believe that statement by Curtin is complete nonsense. Consumers have not maintained their buying plans, at least according to Fed surveys.

Household Spending

But what about household spending? Please check out my May 12 report Household Spending Growth Expectations Plunge; Recession Already Started?

Household Spending Expectations




click on chart for sharper image

I created the above chart with data from Fed does a Survey of Consumer Expectations

Spending Analysis

In spite of rising earnings and income estimates, "median household spending growth expectations retreated significantly from the last month" in the Fed's words.

Recession Likely Underway

I commented on sales in Dismal Retail Sales Numbers Suggest Recession Likely Underway.

Economists were surprised by the dismal retail sales report this morning. That's not surprising because economists are nearly always surprised.

The Bloomberg Consensus retail sales estimate was a rise of 0.2%, but sales came in at 0.0% and the details were ugly.

Estimated Retail Sales

The Census Department offers this Table of Retail Sales.



click on chart for sharper image

Note the huge patch of negative numbers this month. At least people are still eating out and drinking more.

Also note the negative numbers in the November 2014 through January 2015 column.

Economists expected the decline in gasoline sales (down 7.2%) to translate into increased sales elsewhere. It didn't.

I am scratching my head over Bloomberg's statement "consumer confidence may be strong ...". What the heck is Bloomberg talking about?

Does Bloomberg even read its own numbers? Here is a snip from the Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Level Report for April 2015, released on 4/28/2015.
Consumer confidence has fallen back noticeably this month, down more than 6 points to a much lower-than-expected 95.2. This compares very poorly with the Econoday consensus for 103.0 and is even far below the Econoday low estimate of 100.5. The weakness, ominously, is the result of falling assessments of the jobs market, both the current jobs market and expectations for the future jobs market. The second quarter, which is expected to be much stronger than the weather-depressed first quarter, isn't likely to get off to a fast start, at least as far as this report goes.

The most striking weakness in April is the assessment of future conditions with the expectations component down 8.5 points to 87.5 for the weakest reading going all the way back to September. And the most striking weakness among the sub-components is employment, where fewer see more jobs opening up 6 months from now and more see fewer jobs available. This spills over into income where fewer see an increase ahead and more see a decrease.

But also weak is the present situation component which is down more than 2-1/2 points to 106.8 for its weakest reading since December.
The Fed is not looking at those numbers either. In the latest FOMC report the Fed specifically stated "consumer sentiment remains high".

Autos Only Reason YoY Sales Are Positive



Autos are now the only thing keeping retail sales positive year-over-year. And auto sales are driven by subprime loans. How long is this party going to last?

Who wants a car, needs a car, can afford a car, and can get a car loan?

Retail Sales Flashbacks


Consumers Did What They Said

In a huge shock to economists, consumers actually did what consumers said they would do rather than what economists models predicted.

And economists still don't believe it. They are looking for 3% growth this year, whereas I think the US is in recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Empire State Manufacturing Weaker Than Economists' Expectations

Posted: 15 May 2015 08:38 AM PDT

The Empire State Manufacturing survey came in today weaker than the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate, but at least the economists got the leading +- sign correct.
The first indication on May conditions in the manufacturing sector is soft, as indications have been all year. The Empire State index came in at 3.09, below what were already weak Econoday expectations for 5.00. Shipments look respectable at 14.94 but are way ahead of new orders, at only 3.85, and even further ahead of backlog orders which are in deep contraction at minus 11.46. Employment growth is down as is the 6-month outlook, both pointing to a lack of optimism.

Price readings in this report stand out, pointing to even less pressure than in April with input cost inflation very subdued, down nearly 10 points to 9.38, and with virtually no price traction at all for finished goods, at only 1.04.

The manufacturing sector, hurt in part by weak exports, looks to be more and more of a drag at a time when economic growth is supposed to be on a springtime rebound.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Industrial Production, Down 5th Month, Weaker Than Economist Expectations

Posted: 15 May 2015 08:12 AM PDT

Industrial production came in at -0.3%, down for the fifth consecutive month below the Bloomberg Consensus Estimate.


Industrial production is stalling, down 0.3 percent in April for a 5th straight monthly contraction. Factories are cutting back with capacity utilization down 4 tenths to 78.2 percent. And the manufacturing component, which has been flat to negative all year, is unchanged. All these readings are at or near the Econoday low-side forecasts.

Among manufacturing subcomponents, consumer goods output fell 0.3 percent with business goods down 0.4 percent. Construction supplies rose only fractionally but at 0.1 percent the reading is the best all year (this a reminder of how weak construction and housing has been). A positive is a second strong month for auto output, up 1.3 percent on top of March's 4.3 percent surge, but whether output increases further will depend on auto sales which, in yesterday's retail sales report, turned lower in April.

The two other main components in today's report show even greater weakness with mining, hurt by oil & gas, at minus 0.8 percent for the 6th contraction in 7 months and utilities at minus 1.3 percent for a 2nd straight decline.

The industrial economy remains flat and is holding down what is supposed to be the economy's springtime bounce. The news from the factory sector, including this morning's Empire State report, won't be pulling forward expectations for the Fed's first rate hike.
Clean Sweep of Economists' Misses

  • Production - Weaker than Expected
  • Capacity Utilization - Weaker than Expected
  • Manufacturing - Weaker than Expected

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


How Fake Reality TV Shows Trick You Into Thinking They're Real

Posted: 15 May 2015 06:48 PM PDT

When it comes to reality TV, things are never what they seem.























Make Yourself Smarter By Learning These Fun And Interesting Facts

Posted: 15 May 2015 06:38 PM PDT

If you're on a quest for knowledge, look no further. These facts are exactly what you need.













How to Combat 5 of the SEO World's Most Infuriating Problems - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog


How to Combat 5 of the SEO World's Most Infuriating Problems - Whiteboard Friday

Posted on: Friday 15 May 2015 — 02:18

Posted by randfish

These days, most of us have learned that spammy techniques aren't the way to go, and we have a solid sense for the things we should be doing to rank higher, and ahead of our often spammier competitors. Sometimes, maddeningly, it just doesn't work. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand talks about five things that can infuriate SEOs with the best of intentions, why those problems exist, and what we can do about them.

How to Combat 5 of the SEO World's Most Infuriating Problems Whiteboard

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard. Click on it to open a high resolution image in a new tab!

What SEO problems make you angry?

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're chatting about some of the most infuriating things in the SEO world, specifically five problems that I think plague a lot of folks and some of the ways that we can combat and address those.

I'm going to start with one of the things that really infuriates a lot of new folks to the field, especially folks who are building new and emerging sites and are doing SEO on them. You have all of these best practices list. You might look at a web developer's cheat sheet or sort of a guide to on-page and on-site SEO. You go, "Hey, I'm doing it. I've got my clean URLs, my good, unique content, my solid keyword targeting, schema markup, useful internal links, my XML sitemap, and my fast load speed. I'm mobile friendly, and I don't have manipulative links."

Great. "Where are my results? What benefit am I getting from doing all these things, because I don't see one?" I took a site that was not particularly SEO friendly, maybe it's a new site, one I just launched or an emerging site, one that's sort of slowly growing but not yet a power player. I do all this right stuff, and I don't get SEO results.

This makes a lot of people stop investing in SEO, stop believing in SEO, and stop wanting to do it. I can understand where you're coming from. The challenge is not one of you've done something wrong. It's that this stuff, all of these things that you do right, especially things that you do right on your own site or from a best practices perspective, they don't increase rankings. They don't. That's not what they're designed to do.

1) Following best practices often does nothing for new and emerging sites

This stuff, all of these best practices are designed to protect you from potential problems. They're designed to make sure that your site is properly optimized so that you can perform to the highest degree that you are able. But this is not actually rank boosting stuff unfortunately. That is very frustrating for many folks. So following a best practices list, the idea is not, "Hey, I'm going to grow my rankings by doing this."

On the flip side, many folks do these things on larger, more well-established sites, sites that have a lot of ranking signals already in place. They're bigger brands, they have lots of links to them, and they have lots of users and usage engagement signals. You fix this stuff. You fix stuff that's already broken, and boom, rankings pop up. Things are going well, and more of your pages are indexed. You're getting more search traffic, and it feels great. This is a challenge, on our part, of understanding what this stuff does, not a challenge on the search engine's part of not ranking us properly for having done all of these right things.

2) My competition seems to be ranking on the back of spammy or manipulative links

What's going on? I thought Google had introduced all these algorithms to kind of shut this stuff down. This seems very frustrating. How are they pulling this off? I look at their link profile, and I see a bunch of the directories, Web 2.0 sites -- I love that the spam world decided that that's Web 2.0 sites -- article sites, private blog networks, and do follow blogs.

You look at this stuff and you go, "What is this junk? It's terrible. Why isn't Google penalizing them for this?" The answer, the right way to think about this and to come at this is: Are these really the reason that they rank? I think we need to ask ourselves that question.

One thing that we don't know, that we can never know, is: Have these links been disavowed by our competitor here?

I've got my HulksIncredibleStore.com and their evil competitor Hulk-tastrophe.com. Hulk-tastrophe has got all of these terrible links, but maybe they disavowed those links and you would have no idea. Maybe they didn't build those links. Perhaps those links came in from some other place. They are not responsible. Google is not treating them as responsible for it. They're not actually what's helping them.

If they are helping, and it's possible they are, there are still instances where we've seen spam propping up sites. No doubt about it.

I think the next logical question is: Are you willing to loose your site or brand? What we don't see anymore is we almost never see sites like this, who are ranking on the back of these things and have generally less legitimate and good links, ranking for two or three or four years. You can see it for a few months, maybe even a year, but this stuff is getting hit hard and getting hit frequently. So unless you're willing to loose your site, pursuing their links is probably not a strategy.

Then what other signals, that you might not be considering potentially links, but also non-linking signals, could be helping them rank? I think a lot of us get blinded in the SEO world by link signals, and we forget to look at things like: Do they have a phenomenal user experience? Are they growing their brand? Are they doing offline kinds of things that are influencing online? Are they gaining engagement from other channels that's then influencing their SEO? Do they have things coming in that I can't see? If you don't ask those questions, you can't really learn from your competitors, and you just feel the frustration.

3) I have no visibility or understanding of why my rankings go up vs down

On my HulksIncredibleStore.com, I've got my infinite stretch shorts, which I don't know why he never wears -- he should really buy those -- my soothing herbal tea, and my anger management books. I look at my rankings and they kind of jump up all the time, jump all over the place all the time. Actually, this is pretty normal. I think we've done some analyses here, and the average page one search results shift is 1.5 or 2 position changes daily. That's sort of the MozCast dataset, if I'm recalling correctly. That means that, over the course of a week, it's not uncommon or unnatural for you to be bouncing around four, five, or six positions up, down, and those kind of things.

I think we should understand what can be behind these things. That's a very simple list. You made changes, Google made changes, your competitors made changes, or searcher behavior has changed in terms of volume, in terms of what they were engaging with, what they're clicking on, what their intent behind searches are. Maybe there was just a new movie that came out and in one of the scenes Hulk talks about soothing herbal tea. So now people are searching for very different things than they were before. They want to see the scene. They're looking for the YouTube video clip and those kind of things. Suddenly Hulk's soothing herbal tea is no longer directing as well to your site.

So changes like these things can happen. We can't understand all of them. I think what's up to us to determine is the degree of analysis and action that's actually going to provide a return on investment. Looking at these day over day or week over week and throwing up our hands and getting frustrated probably provides very little return on investment. Looking over the long term and saying, "Hey, over the last 6 months, we can observe 26 weeks of ranking change data, and we can see that in aggregate we are now ranking higher and for more keywords than we were previously, and so we're going to continue pursuing this strategy. This is the set of keywords that we've fallen most on, and here are the factors that we've identified that are consistent across that group." I think looking at rankings in aggregate can give us some real positive ROI. Looking at one or two, one week or the next week probably very little ROI.

4) I cannot influence or affect change in my organization because I cannot accurately quantify, predict, or control SEO

That's true, especially with things like keyword not provided and certainly with the inaccuracy of data that's provided to us through Google's Keyword Planner inside of AdWords, for example, and the fact that no one can really control SEO, not fully anyway.

You get up in front of your team, your board, your manager, your client and you say, "Hey, if we don't do these things, traffic will suffer," and they go, "Well, you can't be sure about that, and you can't perfectly predict it. Last time you told us something, something else happened. So because the data is imperfect, we'd rather spend money on channels that we can perfectly predict, that we can very effectively quantify, and that we can very effectively control." That is understandable. I think that businesses have a lot of risk aversion naturally, and so wanting to spend time and energy and effort in areas that you can control feels a lot safer.

Some ways to get around this are, first off, know your audience. If you know who you're talking to in the room, you can often determine the things that will move the needle for them. For example, I find that many managers, many boards, many executives are much more influenced by competitive pressures than they are by, "We won't do as well as we did before, or we're loosing out on this potential opportunity." Saying that is less powerful than saying, "This competitor, who I know we care about and we track ourselves against, is capturing this traffic and here's how they're doing it."

Show multiple scenarios. Many of the SEO presentations that I see and have seen and still see from consultants and from in-house folks come with kind of a single, "Hey, here's what we predict will happen if we do this or what we predict will happen if we don't do this." You've got to show multiple scenarios, especially when you know you have error bars because you can't accurately quantify and predict. You need to show ranges.

So instead of this, I want to see: What happens if we do it a little bit? What happens if we really overinvest? What happens if Google makes a much bigger change on this particular factor than we expect or our competitors do a much bigger investment than we expect? How might those change the numbers?

Then I really do like bringing case studies, especially if you're a consultant, but even in-house there are so many case studies in SEO on the Web today, you can almost always find someone who's analogous or nearly analogous and show some of their data, some of the results that they've seen. Places like SEMrush, a tool that offers competitive intelligence around rankings, can be great for that. You can show, hey, this media site in our sector made these changes. Look at the delta of keywords they were ranking for versus R over the next six months. Correlation is not causation, but that can be a powerful influencer showing those kind of things.

Then last, but not least, any time you're going to get up like this and present to a group around these topics, if you very possibly can, try to talk one-on-one with the participants before the meeting actually happens. I have found it almost universally the case that when you get into a group setting, if you haven't had the discussions beforehand about like, "What are your concerns? What do you think is not valid about this data? Hey, I want to run this by you and get your thoughts before we go to the meeting." If you don't do that ahead of time, people can gang up and pile on. One person says, "Hey, I don't think this is right," and everybody in the room kind of looks around and goes, "Yeah, I also don't think that's right." Then it just turns into warfare and conflict that you don't want or need. If you address those things beforehand, then you can include the data, the presentations, and the "I don't know the answer to this and I know this is important to so and so" in that presentation or in that discussion. It can be hugely helpful. Big difference between winning and losing with that.

5) Google is biasing to big brands. It feels hopeless to compete against them

A lot of people are feeling this hopelessness, hopelessness in SEO about competing against them. I get that pain. In fact, I've felt that very strongly for a long time in the SEO world, and I think the trend has only increased. This comes from all sorts of stuff. Brands now have the little dropdown next to their search result listing. There are these brand and entity connections. As Google is using answers and knowledge graph more and more, it's feeling like those entities are having a bigger influence on where things rank and where they're visible and where they're pulling from.

User and usage behavior signals on the rise means that big brands, who have more of those signals, tend to perform better. Brands in the knowledge graph, brands growing links without any effort, they're just growing links because they're brands and people point to them naturally. Well, that is all really tough and can be very frustrating.


I think you have a few choices on the table. First off, you can choose to compete with brands where they can't or won't. So this is areas like we're going after these keywords that we know these big brands are not chasing. We're going after social channels or people on social media that we know big brands aren't. We're going after user generated content because they have all these corporate requirements and they won't invest in that stuff. We're going after content that they refuse to pursue for one reason or another. That can be very effective.

You better be building, growing, and leveraging your competitive advantage. Whenever you build an organization, you've got to say, "Hey, here's who is out there. This is why we are uniquely better or a uniquely better choice for this set of customers than these other ones." If you can leverage that, you can generally find opportunities to compete and even to win against big brands. But those things have to become obvious, they have to become well-known, and you need to essentially build some of your brand around those advantages, or they're not going to give you help in search. That includes media, that includes content, that includes any sort of press and PR you're doing. That includes how you do your own messaging, all of these things.

(C) You can choose to serve a market or a customer that they don't or won't. That can be a powerful way to go about search, because usually search is bifurcated by the customer type. There will be slightly different forms of search queries that are entered by different kinds of customers, and you can pursue one of those that isn't pursued by the competition.

Last, but not least, I think for everyone in SEO we all realize we're going to have to become brands ourselves. That means building the signals that are typically associated with brands -- authority, recognition from an industry, recognition from a customer set, awareness of our brand even before a search has happened. I talked about this in a previous Whiteboard Friday, but I think because of these things, SEO is becoming a channel that you benefit from as you grow your brand rather than the channel you use to initially build your brand.

All right, everyone. Hope these have been helpful in combating some of these infuriating, frustrating problems and that we'll see some great comments from you guys. I hope to participate in those as well, and we'll catch you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

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Net-a-Porter launch their own social platform, The NET SET, and we’ve reviewed it!

Net-a-Porter launch their own social platform, The NET SET, and we’ve reviewed it!

Link to White.net » Blog

Net-a-Porter launch their own social platform, The NET SET, and we’ve reviewed it!

Posted: 14 May 2015 02:00 AM PDT

BLOG- Google's Twitter integration (1)Online designer clothing retail behemoth Net-a-Porter, not content with 6 million unique visits a month to its desktop site, yesterday launched its new app, the Net Set. Having been impressed with their content strategy in the past year, which included the expansion of its online magazine and the creation of a dedicated print magazine, I decided to take a look at this new platform, dubbed in the invitational email, The social shopping network we have all been waiting for.

Fortune Magazine this week called it Net-a-Porter’s ‘new weapon in [the] luxury eCommerce battle’ setting the tone for a new era of mobile device targeted platforms.

fortune headline

The focus of my blog post in September last year was the way in which online retailers were utilising magazine-style and ‘curated’ or editorial content in order to improve the customer experience and blur boundaries between content and commerce. In many ways, the Net Set app, launched this past week, is simply an extension of this vision, which seeks to interfere with the traditional retail model, further creating an interactive, inspirational experience; the ultimate commerce/content hybrid.

The-edit-by-net-a-porter

Knowing from the start that Net-a-Porter as a brand could not be seen to be devaluing its designers wares by offering discounts and offers, Net-a-Porter has focused on the customer experience. Reaching-out, addressing and hugging those consumers who have become advocates of the brand over the years has been an important focus of Net-a-Porter’s strategy.

The fact that Net-a-Porter would bring out an app is not surprising given its standing as the go-to online retailer of designer brands. That it would seek to create its own social platform is a novel idea and little tested in the fashion, let alone the eCommerce world.

Knowing that the likes of ASOS still have separate apps for their magazine content and shopping function, the Net Set may be a venture into a new platform, but knowing their content approach works as well as it has done, Net-a-Porter must be confident that this strategy is the right one. Natalie Massenet, founder of the Net-a-Porter group seemed confident upon launch that the app will be a success; "A lot of people are trying to create social shopping destinations, but they're missing some of the ingredients. Either they don't have the scale and reach and audience already, they don't have the relationship with the brands, or they don't have the logistics or in-house tech team we have," she told Fortune.

Quotes (1)

Essentially the app creates a further touch-point for consumers who already browse on retail website, read the online magazine the Edit, and purchase the offline publication Porter.

Research from Crowdtap and Ipsos found that user-generated content is 20% more influential than any other type of media when it comes to purchasing, and 50% more trusted. So lets look at how Net-a-Porter have utilised this kind of content in their new offering.

Creating an app that will inspire

The Net Set user journey asks users to complete their profile with 6 quick steps. These choices inform the content that users will receive in the app, through joining different ‘style tribes’, choosing  favourite designers, and selecting specific Style Council members (such as the likes of Laura Bailey and Poppy Delevigne, but strangely, no Paul Weller) to follow.

6 Steps to Creating Blockbuster Content

Once registered, users are treated to a platform that is a mixture of Vogue-like features, trendy Instagram accounts and a an eCommerce platform. What is most astonishing is that this app seems to blend the three seamlessly.

The look of the app will be familiar to Net-a-Porter’s following, especially anyone who has read their online magazine, The Edit. The interface is decidedly trendy and echoes the feeling you get in those really designer stores with plenty of shiny white walls and a few rails of stock. Simplicity and clean lines are key features here.

The user interface is slick, with gorgeous imagery, and set out rather intuitively into 5 main navigation options: Browse, Find, Upload, Alerts and Profile. Most importantly, that little shopping bag icon reminds you that you can purchase so easily from inside the app.

The idea of curated content that Net-a-Porter introduced in The Edit flows seamlessly into the app. The main content feed (Browse) is a mixture of popular products (measured in ‘loves’), instagram-style posts by Style Council members (which utilise hashtags, emoticons and the ability to tag other users) and new products from favoured designers or Style Tribes. According to one media report, the app has built-in visual recognition technology (presumably to recognise products and tag them to their designer/brand), however, I haven’t used this yet so I can’t comment on how effective it is.

feed

Find

Find  is essentially a beautiful search feature. It includes 350 designer collections, and you can search products, people, brands, photos and Style Tribes within the same feature and most importantly, it displays instant search results, a function which seem to work well even on a 3G connection.

Upload

This is the section where you can create a post/image to upload and share. It’s pretty self explanatory and is kept simple and clean to encourage frequent posting and sharing.

Alerts

I’m not quite sure what this feature does at the moment – I hope to find out soon – it may be related to a ‘let me know when its back in stock’ type idea.

Profile

In this section you can edit your vital statistics and find all of the products and images you have ‘loved’.

Products Pages

Product pages on the app not only let users view a lovely carousel of images of each item from different angles, but also let users:

  • Recommend a product to a Style Tribe
  • View uploads by others users of how they have styled this and similar items

4

The converting appeal of the product pages would always be the money-making aim of the app and thus creating product pages which blend the checkout process with the browsing and wish-list function was imperative. The NetSet seems to have done this rather well, ensuring that the purchase journey is clear, reinforces expectations and guides the user to purchase with as few steps as possible.

Is it a seamless purchase journey?

payment screen
Whilst no purchase for £1,600 will be taken lightly (or maybe it will by the uber-wealthy), the checkout journey is reasonable slick and conveys simply an extension of normal app use. The checkout is a guided four step affair, which, in my opinion, could be improved a little bit in terms of the layout and, in particular, the payment screen where buttons are quite small to tap and rather too close together. I think the app should make greater play of the facility to pay by Paypal as this method does ultimately decrease the time it takes to make a purchase on-the-go, and ultimately, is less likely to lead to purchase drop-outs at this stage.

I would remark that the summary information on the payment page should be condensed so that the payment form is not pushed below the fold of the average smartphone as the current look of this step of the payment process looks more time consuming than it really is simply due to the amount of words and boxes on the screen.

 

 

 

 

Conclusions:

Net-a-Porter already has 4.1 million fans across its existing social channels and thus knows there is an audience for this app. They have set the bar high in entering the social media app world and I can see this becoming the app to flick through and drool over for followers of fashion and those that enjoy beautiful design.

The Net Set has been created with Net-a-Porter regular shoppers and loyal brand advocates in mind, allowing a seamless registration that pulls in information from their existing online account to populate their feed. Net-a-Porter could have just designed a sleek looking shopping app, but it obviously believes this way of shopping, the softly softly approach outlined in my previous blog post, will reap dividends for them in the long term.

I believe this app will put pressure on other retailers who have fallen behind in the eCommerce game. What is clear, is that marketing spend on eCommerce will grow immeasurably over the next few years as retailers strive to compete against one another in an increasingly innovative multi-touchpoint landscape.

The post Net-a-Porter launch their own social platform, The NET SET, and we’ve reviewed it! appeared first on White.net.

Why isn’t my mobile website converting?

Posted: 14 May 2015 12:00 AM PDT

There's been a lot of hype over the last couple of months about the latest mobile-friendly algorithms for mobile search. Whilst it's great to see that traffic from mobile devices has been on the increase over the last year, on the whole conversions haven't enjoyed this positive increase.

I’ve read a lot of blog posts recently on the new algorithm and it's great to hear that Google will reward mobile friendly websites, but there is little information on why mobile conversions aren’t increasing.

We now need to understand why users aren’t converting via mobile devices and what businesses can do to tackle the fundamental issues users are facing when on a mobile device.

The first question we need to ask ourselves is why are conversions lower on mobile devices? Although the mobile devices are often the go-to choice of technology, people aren’t purchasing on them. Google's smart shopper survey revealed that 87% of respondents used a computer to make a purchase whilst only 6% used a smartphone.

So what are people doing on their mobile devices?

It's clear to see just how much of an impact mobile devices are having on our lives, but do we know what actions and activities our customers are performing? It could be argued that smartphones are more of a research or browsing platform rather than a buying platform.

Going back to the findings from the Google survey, 83% of respondents used a desktop to conduct research compared to 21% who used a smartphone.

But whilst it's great that we’ve identified what people do, we need to find out WHY people are discouraged from purchasing on a mobile device. It could be down to a multitude of reasons; here are some of them:

  • Websites aren’t mobile responsive
  • Website aren’t storing user and payment details
  • Page speed is slower on a mobile device
  • People like to research on a mobile device and purchase on a desktop
  • Depends on the need state- e.g. booking a table at a restaurant is easier and quicker to do than purchasing a camera
  • Low value items are more likely to be made on a mobile device
  • People feel like they are missing out on information, products etc. when purchasing on a mobile device.

Why first impressions count

How many times have you bounced off a website because you can't read the text on your phone? Or if the page takes forever to load? Frustrating huh? You're not alone; when it comes to mobile every second counts. Loading time can affect your bottom line for a number of reasons, so ensuring that your website loads fast, doesn’t crash or send a 404 error is now more important than ever.

Google's survey revealed that 26% of respondents claimed that they sometimes experienced problems and 8% said they often experienced issues.

Most users, including myself, don't have the time nor the patience to wait for a site to respond, we just expect it to work and when it doesn’t it can leave a lasting impression.

Whilst it's important to find out how many people experienced problems, it's what users do after they’ve experienced problems that can help us.

Findings from the Google survey concluded that:

  • 50% use the same site on another device
  • 15% use the same site despite the problem
  • 24% use another site that works better on a smart phone
  • 25% try the same site via smartphone again or at a later time

Whilst it's great that 50% of the respondents went back and visited the same site on another device, the question is, how long will people put up with these issues and start expecting more?

A large proportion, 24% in fact, bounced straight to another site, most likely to a competitor. And guess what? If your competitor's site is mobile friendly, they are more likely going to purchase through them.

What makes a site mobile friendly?

So the most important question is, "what makes a site mobile friendly?" And "what things can I do to make the user journey quick and easy for its visitors?"

Having a mobile friendly website has become a necessity rather than a nice-to-have option. Design and development teams are now having to rethink and refine the process to incorporate the variety of screen sizes whilst taking into account the needs of the user. Understanding the basics of having a mobile friendly website is paramount to the future success of your site.

I have put together a list of the top features I think are a must have for every website, as seen below.

Checklist of essential requirements for mobile websites:

  1. Present your navigation horizontally, in the burger format
  2. Ensure the content fits the screen
  3. Not too much scrolling, tapping or pinching required
  4. Site that loads quickly
  5. Have the most important content above the fold
  6. Search facility within the site
  7. Content that is easy to read without needing to zoom in
  8. Keep your copy simple and concise
  9. Don't overcrowd the page
  10. Click-to-call functionality
  11. Maps of your locations/stores
  12. Links that aren't close together
  13. Large call-to-actions that are easily clickable
  14. Input fields that have large touch areas
  15. Ability to store user and payment details to speed up the purchase

Mobile websites: saints and sinners

To make this a little more interesting and relatable, I have chosen 5 features from the list above that I think are the most important, and found saints and sinners for each category. You will notice I didn’t need to navigate further than a brand's homepage before noticing problems!

 

1) Have the most important content above the fold

Have the most important content above the fold

SINNER – ALTON TOWERS

Alton Towers mobile website focuses on a promotion rather than important areas such as ticket purchase.

SAINT – PIZZA EXPRESS

Pizza Express have provided links to the core areas their customers will want to go to.

 

 2) Links that aren’t close together

Links that aren't close together

SINNER – PETS AT HOME

The links within Pets at Home's drop down navigation are far too close together making it almost impossible for users to select one link.

SAINT – OASIS

Oasis have created enough space between each call to action button.

 

3) Ensure the content fits the screen

Ensure the content fits the screen

SINNER – STAPLES

Staples haven't set the mobile view port so the page doesn’t fit on a mobile device.

SAINT – WATERSTONES

Waterstones have set the view port so that the page fits within a mobiles frame.

 

4) Content that is easy to read without needing to zoom in

Content that is easy to read without needing to zoom in

SINNER – FUDGE KITCHEN

The text on Fudge Kitchen's homepage is far too small to read on a mobile device.

SAINT – STARBUCKS

The font on Starbucks's homepage is easy to read on a mobile device without the need for zooming in.

 

5) Don’t overcrowd the page

Mobile - Mobile - Don't overcrowd the page

SINNER – ANIMAL

Animal have too much information on the homepage making it harder for customers to find what they need.

SAINT – AO

AO's 'shop by' options make it easy for customers to find what they need.

So what's next?

Where do we go from here? Firstly, don't give up. The biggest mistake to make is to become complacent and accept that things won't change. But we all know that approach won't work.

It's important to ask yourself what your customer's intentions are when visiting your site, what information would they want to see, how could you make their time on the site more enjoyable and simple. Then once you've answered these types of questions you can identify the best ways to optimise the site so we can make it easier for them to convert on their mobiles.

Just remember that the easier you make a customer's journey the more likely they are to convert!

Do you have any other mobile friendly features that I should add to my list? If so, please leave me a comment below with your recommendation.  I look forward to hearing from you.

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Your Competitors Are Optimised For Mobile Devices – Are You?

Posted: 12 May 2015 04:08 AM PDT

We’ve all heard of #Mobilegeddon in the digital news of late… if you haven’t where have you been!?

It was deemed that the Google organic sky was blackening for those businesses whose site was not optimised for mobile devices, or deemed mobile friendly, with the fear of being dropped from Google SERP altogether.

This begs the question, Your Competitors Are Optimised For Mobile Devices – Are You? And do you need to be for PPC?

In this post I will look at what it is to be mobile ‘friendly’, or optimised. There are examples of what is and what is not, along with my tips on how to approach optimisation for mobile from a organic and paid POV.

I will say at this stage that I had a decision as to whether to use stats from Bing or Google…. I decided on Bing for the sole reason that they seem to receive far lower coverage in the media than the giant that is Google. So, the figures you’ll see displayed throughout the post are taken from Bing on-line publications.

So… the first question.

Why invest in mobile?

Well to start with, CPCs on mobile are typically 30% cheaper than desktop/laptop CPCs with 3 out of 10 searches on the Yahoo Bing Network undertaken on a mobile device(1).

We’ve seen search become more intuitive on mobile devices of late than desktop, and the recent(ish) introduction of Siri and Cortana has enabled us as a user to find the information we desire via voice command (is it me or are those keyboards on mobiles devices getting smaller? That or my fingers are getting fatter!)

Customers are spending more and more time on mobile devices, with average time on device increasing by some 5 times from 2011 to 2014.

Consumers in general are spending more time on their mobile devices than watching TV or reading a book (OK so they could be reading a book on their mobile device, but you get my drift). As smartphones become more and more the norm to own, over 82%(2) of owners search on and browse the web using their mobile device during the day.

Search is shifting to mobile; over 40%(3) of internet searches on the Yahoo Bing Network are through smartphone devices and it’s estimated by 2017 that searches from mobile devices will outpace those via PCs and laptops.

mobile-time-on-device

Smartphone searches drive conversions at home, in-store and on the go with 70%(4) of mobile conversions occurring within five hours of a mobile search.

This does vary by sector but this is very true for online shopping. Sectors such as travel see a very different conversion path with mobile/tablet searches being undertaken for research purposes and generally conversions following on a desktop/laptop device.

So, we have looked at some impressive stats, but before you consider mobile advertising, ask yourself, ‘Is my site mobile optimised?’

What is a mobile optimised website and why do I need one?

In plain English, a mobile optimised website is a simplified version of a site, designed for smartphones and tablet devices for ease of navigation and readability.

The whittard.co.uk site is mobile optimised, and is shown below on the left. TheMissingBean.co.uk website is not optimised for mobile, and is shown on the right:

mobile-optimised-non-optimised

As you can see, the site with a desktop optimised layout is more difficult to navigate than the mobile optimised version.

Mobile users need, no demand, a suitable experience on your site; it needs to be:

  1. East to load
  2. Easy to read
  3. Easy to interact with

The benefit?

Users are more likely to convert on sites optimised for mobile devices; Bing Ads reported that the smartphone conversion rate was 23% for those not optimised for mobile and 60% for mobile optimised sites(5)… the stats speak for themselves right? If your site is not optimised for mobile you’re losing customers!

30% of users will abandon a purchase from your site if the shopping cart is not optimised for mobile. I’m part of that 30%.

There is nothing more frustrating that attempting to make a purchase and constantly having to zoom in/out of fields within the cart or hit the wrong field as they’re so so small to read, I would much rather skip to a competitor and pay that extra £1.00 if it meant that the shopping experience was optimised for me and my purchase. Have you done similar?

Now, when I say ‘mobile-optimised site’ I do not necessarily mean you need to rush out to your developers and design a new site, you have two options really. Either create a separate site for mobile screens (m.example.com) or create a mobile-friendly responsive design.

Option 1: A separate site for mobile screens

Typically a separate site served on an alternate URL, m.example.com for mobile users.

Pros:

  • A design that is fully optimised to work on smaller screens
  • You have the ability to adjust content to respond to top ranking mobile search queries or products purchased more often on mobile tan desktop
  • Faster load time for the user

Cons:

  • Cost and management time required to monitor and optimise two separate sites
  • SEO is managed seperately on a mobile site
  • Can lack flexibility to adapt to new screen sizes as they’re released

Option 2: A responsive web design (Like the one you’re on now :) )

A responsive design automatically adjusts to different viewing conditions, such as screen size and orientation. Try viewing this post on your tablet and switch between portrait and landscape orientation.

Pros:

  • Management time and costs are lower due to a single URL, sitemap that adapts to all device types automatically and updates apply to all device types

Cons:

  • The site will require a complete overhaul in-terms of architecture and design – a one-off investment

How can I make the most of my mobile optimised site?

There are three key things to remember here, your site must be easy to load, easy to read and easy to engage with.

Optimise the site for speed, I would probably say this is one of very key things to ensure you adhere to at all times. Mobile users want content that is easy to read and engage with yes, but, the very first thing they want is the page to load quickly!

Typically if your page takes longer than 5 seconds to load that’s going to be a bounce and possible an exit. Here is a great post by Pauline Jakober on Site Speed & PPC Performance: Why You Can't Ignore A Slow Site Anymore. A great read.

Make it easy to read by only using content that is accessible on mobile devices. For example, its no good using Adobe Flash as this is not accessible on iOS devices, instead consider HTML5.

Ensure that any plug-ins you are using are also mobile friendly, otherwise you may end up with a mobile site with a lot of inaccessible content which to a user is a reason to bounce/exit right there and then. Typically HTML5, JPG, GIF and jQuery are good formats to stick to.

Ensure that the design is easy to navigate, limiting distractions You want your user to follow a sales/conversion path so don’t consider bombarding them with 101 reasons to click elsewhere. Less is more.

Keep your content concise  and to the point. Talking of points…. use bullet points to get key messages across. This may sound silly, but consider your font size also, minimise the need for the user to zoom. Make sure that the CTA is clearly visible at all times, having a ‘Menu’ button at the top of the screen makes it visually hard for your user to miss.

mobile-optimised-nav

Make sure your site is touch-friendly, fingers and thumbs, keeping the need to click at a minimum. Buttons are a clear path for users to naturally recognise and follow, so integrate them. Speaking of buttons, make sure these call-to-actions are strong, ‘More info’, ‘Add to cart’ for example.

Mobilise Your PPC Activities

As above, it is important to signal to users that you recognise that they are searching via a mobile device and that they can expect an optimised experience when visiting your site and converting.

Tell potential customers that you are mobile-first.

  • Use keywords and ad text like mobile and smartphone where possible. "Order now from your mobile" for example
  • If you have a mobile-specific URL, be sure to use it… "m.example.com"
  • Utilise mobile-friendly ad extensions such as location, call and app

I guess what I am trying to say here is extensions, extensions EXTENSIONS. Help your customers find the pages they’re seeking with sitelink extensions. If you have bricks and mortar stores then utilise location extensions to allow users to locate their nearest store.

Get more customers on the phone with call extensions, it is sometimes easier for the user to call than browse your site, and example here would be a user looking to locate a last minute hotel room. It’s quicker to call and ask than fill in mobile forms to only then be told no.

starbucks-ad

If we analyse the Starbucks ad to the right, we see that the ad text fits perfectly for mobile screens, we have the options to click-to-call, click to get direction to the nearest store and also to download the app.

All of these options are designed to assist us as a potential customer. The major benefit of engaging the user to download your app is the potential log-term gain of repeat custom. A recommendation here would be optimisation of the sitelinks.

"Conversion rates for smartphone shoppers on mobile-optimised sites is 160% higher than on non-optimised sites" – Bing

If an ad group has both mobile preferred and regular ads, only mobile preferred ads serve on mobile devices, and only regular ads serve on PCs and tablets.

Don't forget to set up mobile-only ads, this will ensure that you can deliver your desired message to searchers rather than potentially losing that message when not all ad text is displayed on a mobile device from a non-mobile preferred ad.

Make sure as well that you have both mobile preferred and non-mobile preferred extensions set up correctly to ensure they are displayed on the correct device type. Note: mobile preference cannot be set at the ad group level. If all sitelinks in an ad group are set to 'mobile preferred' some may be displayed on tablet/PC if there are no other sitelinks available to use.

mobilepreferred

As mentioned above, if you have a mobile site (m.xxxxxxxx) ensure that you utilise the {if mobile} destination URL query string so that you direct mobile users to your mobile optimised site. For example {ifmobile:m.thisis-anexample.com}.

To re-cap then, I hope the above is enough to encourage you to optimise your site and ad campaigns now.

The time we as a user spends on mobile devices is expected to increase even further through 2015 with an estimated 42% of digital media time occurring on smartphones and 12% on tablets(6). Mobile ad performance is accelerating also by 57% growth in year-over-year mobile conversion rates.

As always, I’d love to hear your experiences of optimising for mobile. Have you taken the plunge? Has it worked? Get in-touch using the comments section below.

*1 - Yahoo Bing Network CTR and CPC, Apr - Sepetember 2014 Internal Data. 2 - Nielsen. "The mobile consumer. A Global Snapshot". 3 - Microsoft Internal Data. 4 - xAd/Telmetrics Study, "Mobile Path to Purchase" and Microsoft research. 5 - NetElixir study of 180M shopping session on 53 retail client's sites. 6 - comScore Media metric Multi-Platform.

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