Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Brilliant Bullshit!
- Iran Seizes Two U.S. Navy Boats Hours Before Obama's SOTU Address; What the Hell is Iran Doing?
- Decoupling Ridiculousness; US Rail Traffic Is Outright Recessionary
- ISIS Suicide Bomber Hits Istanbul Tourist District, Nine Germans Killed; The Case for Merkel's Resignation
- Unintended Consequence of Negative Interest Rate Madness: Swiss Canton Begs Taxpayers "Please Delay Tax Payments"
| Posted: 12 Jan 2016 10:17 PM PST On Tuesday evening I watched president Obama's state of the union address. It was brilliant. Obama rang all the bells, dotted all the i's, and attacked all the ghosts. At times, he even made sense. All in all, it was a brilliant effort, possibly his best speech ever, even though his speech was essentially bullshit. In case you missed that speech, whether by accident or out of disgust, here is a Transcript Text of President Obama's 2016 State of the Union address. Video Ad Libs Obama deviated from his prepared transcript greatly. Here is a video for interested parties. Belief in Change In his address, Obama said "I believe in change because I believe in you". That's ironic because his first campaign slogan was "Change you can believe in". People believed in change but what change did Obama deliver? Despite promises, we are still in Afghanistan. Despite promises, we did not close Guantanamo Bay. The Mideast is a bigger mess than ever. US unemployment is indeed half of what it was when Obama took office. But who gets the credit for that? The answer is retiring baby boomers dropping out of the labor force by mad. Any US president would have achieved the same result by doing nothing. Obama gets to brag because he is lucky enough to be in office at the time. Doing Things Obama did do things. Obamacare was a disaster. But he bragged about it. Obama's treaty with Iran is his single most positive accomplishment in eight years, but that's in dispute by many on the left and right. Affordable Education From the left, Obama received massive applause for affordable education. Affordable "anything" would get applause from socialists. Yet, "affordable education" will drive up costs every bit as much as "affordable housing". Without a doubt, history shows that any time government sets out to make something "affordable", the opposite happens. Dare I ask: Were Bush's "Ownership Society" and "No Child Left Behind" programs all that different from Obama's proposals? Pure Political Bullshit 75% of Obama's speech was purely political bullshit. Proving the sorry state of divisive politics, Obama received little applause, even on topics where he was right. Campaign finance reform was one such topic. Congress is clearly bought and sold by special interest groups. On the left, unions rule. On the right, bankers rule. In general, neither party really wants reform. If they did, we would have had reform by now. Hypocrisy in Action Had a Republican given the exact same speech (stripping out global warming and other obvious nonsense), Republicans would have applauded every step of the way. Obama's mention of "No Child Left Behind", a ridiculous program of the Bush administration, was nothing short of brilliant. Republicans cheered Bush's program at that time. Curiously, there was dead silence from the Republican side of the aisle when Obama praised it. Had a Republican bragged about taking out Osama Bin Laden, Republicans would have cheered like mad and Democrats would have been silent. We saw the opposite. Brilliance Explained Obama's SOTU speech was pure brilliance. With just a few minor tweaks, either party could have given the same speech, with accolades from their party. That's "brilliant bullshit" at its finest. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Iran Seizes Two U.S. Navy Boats Hours Before Obama's SOTU Address; What the Hell is Iran Doing? Posted: 12 Jan 2016 05:23 PM PST Iran Seizes Two U.S. Navy Boats Are things heating up in the Mideast? Is the Obama-sponsored nuclear deal about to unravel? Those appear to be reasonable question following the news report Iran Seizes Two U.S. Navy Boats hours before president Obama's State of the Union (SOTU) address. What the Hell is Iran Doing? Upon reading the headline, my first thought was "What the hell is Iran doing?" Then I read the story. It appears the US made a mistake, not Iran. US officials say the navy lost contact with the boats and they may have veered into Iranian territorial waters near Iran's Farsi Island. The White House moved to head off perceptions of the incident as an act of Iranian belligerence. "We do not see this as hostile intent, and every indication is they're being well treated and will be released," a senior administration official said. White House press secretary Josh Earnest said U.S. officials were in touch with the Iranians and received assurances the sailors are "being afforded the proper courtesy that you'd expect." The boats were on a trip from Kuwait to Bahrain. Bad Timing or Good Timing? For Whom? Republicans will be screaming hellfire, but look at what we are talking about. These are the boats in question.  The boats detained by Iran were described as 'Riverine' crafts approximately 20 to 25 feet long. Above, two 'riverine' boats in June. Photo: U.S. Navy Prompt Release The Wall Street Journal reports "U.S. has received assurances that crew members will be released promptly". If so, bear in mind that a prompt release would likely not been the case before the nuclear deal with Iran. There is no story here except for Republican warmongers itching to unravel Obama's nuclear deal with Iran. I maintain Obama's deal with Iran is the single best thing he has done in eight years. Hmm. Has he done anything else right? Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Decoupling Ridiculousness; US Rail Traffic Is Outright Recessionary Posted: 12 Jan 2016 11:30 AM PST Global shipping traffic is awful. Worse yet, US rail traffic is downright recessionary looking. Recessionary Decline in Rail Traffic Bloomberg reports Rail Traffic Is Saying Something Worrying About the U.S. Economy. It's not the jobs report or the latest housing data but railway cargo that has analysts at Bank of America concerned.Rail Traffic  Shipping Traffic Please consider Investigating Claims "North Atlantic Trade Ground to a Halt, No Ships Moving"; The Real Shipping Story. Here's an eye-opening chart from that report.  Don't Blame Commodities Mining and commodities are no doubt "part" of the decline, but please don't tell me this is all commodity related. And don't tell me that the decline in shipping is all China related. Above all, don't tell me manufacturing does not matter or the US economy has decoupled from the world. Decoupling Ridiculousness For details on the awful state of shipping, please see Investigating Claims "North Atlantic Trade Ground to a Halt, No Ships Moving"; The Real Shipping Story. The idea that China would decouple from the global markets in 2007 was ridiculous. Reverse decoupling, the notion the US will decouple from the global economy is equally ridiculous. Finally, the new found theory that "manufacturing no longer matters" and the US service economy will carry the day alone is the most ridiculous decoupling thesis yet. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Posted: 12 Jan 2016 10:21 AM PST An ISIS suicide bomber struck at the heart of an Istanbul Turkey tourist district moments ago, killing at least ten people, among them nine German citizens. The Wall Street Journal reports Turkey Blames Islamic State in Istanbul Attack. A powerful explosion hit the heart of Istanbul's central tourist district on Tuesday, killing at least 10 people and injuring 15 others. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said a Syria-linked suicide bomber is believed to be behind the blast.Merkel's Seriously Misguided Refugee Policy After chancellor Angela Merkel foolishly welcomed refugees with open arms, public opinion forced her to change tactics. She did, but in superficial, counterproductive ways. For example, Merkel bribed Turkey with a $3 billion payment so that Turkey will pen in refugees. How's that working? Today we have proof of the absurdity of that offer. But let's dig deeper with more statistics. Turkey Statistics The population of Turkey is roughly 75 million of which 90% are Sunni Muslims. As part of the deal for penning migrants, Merkel agreed to speed up Turkish admission into the EU. Those 75 million Turks would then have Visa-free access to the rest of Europe. Not only is Turkey guilty of human rights violations, president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has Turkey on a Path for Dictatorship. Dealing with Erdoğan is madness. Merkel Should Resign 400,000 Syrians are in Germany right now, seeking asylum. How many of them are ISIS terrorists? Is one too many? Yet, even after the sex attacks in Cologne, she has done nothing to fix the problem. Heck, she will not even admit what the problem is. Instead, Merkel sought deals with a would-be dictator. As I have stated previously, for the good of Germany, Merkel should resign. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Posted: 11 Jan 2016 11:38 PM PST "Please Delay Tax Payments" Negative interest rates have had a new and unusual effect on taxing bodies in Switzerland: Swiss Canton Tells Taxpayers to Delay Settling Bills. Taxpayers in parts of Switzerland this year face an unusual request from fiscal authorities: please delay settling your bill until as late as possible.Unintended Consequences I will gladly receive on Tuesday what you may wish to pay today. Is a fine for bill prepayment the next logical step? Think about that for a second. Rather than getting individuals and corporations to spend (the desired central bank action), negative interest rates (not yet tried at the consumer level) just might get everyone to pay their bills early. Going one step further, if lending rates are low enough, people could borrow money at negative rates and park it under their mattress or in safe deposit boxes and make money by borrowing. Please take the money! Just promise to pay me back whenever. More realistically, negative interest rates on consumer deposits will cause a run on the banks. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
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