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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Startling Look at Employment Demographics by Age Group: Spotlight on Age 25-54
Obama's Chance to Do Something Right: Nominate Hagel for Secretary of Defense; Why the War Party Fears Hagel
The Bears' Prayer

Startling Look at Employment Demographics by Age Group: Spotlight on Age 25-54

Posted: 06 Jan 2013 10:28 PM PST

Last month I posted a chart showing employment by age group. Here is an update as of Friday's job release.

Employment Demographics by Age Group

click on chart for sharper image

Note that 100% of the job growth since the recession is in age group 55 and over.

Last month, someone proposed the above chart was blatantly misleading because it does not reflect the aging workforce.

Let's investigate that hypothesis with a look at actual data (numbers in tables and charts in thousands).

Civilian Institutional Population (CP) and Labor Force (LF)

Year	16-19 CP	20-24 CP	25-54 CP	55+ CP	16-19 LF	20-24 LF	25-54 LF	55+ LF
2000	15912	18311	120656	57697	8271	14250	101393	18668
2001	15929	18877	121604	58683	7902	14557	101789	19485
2002	15994	19348	122077	60151	7585	14781	101719	20778
2003	16096	19801	123289	61981	7170	14928	102309	22104
2004	16222	20197	123410	63527	7114	15154	102122	23011
2005	16398	20276	124175	65233	7164	15127	102773	24257
2006	16678	20265	124884	66988	7281	15113	103566	25468
2007	16982	20427	125696	68761	7012	15205	104353	26554
2008	17075	20409	125652	70652	6858	15174	104396	27858
2009	17043	20524	125565	72668	6390	14971	103742	29040
2010	16901	21047	125290	74591	5906	15028	102940	30014
2011	16774	21423	124704	76716	5727	15270	101744	30876
2012	16984	21799	124314	80187	5823	15462	101253	32437

Age Group 25-54 Key Facts

In 2007 the civilian population was 125,652,000
In 2007 the labor force was 104,353,000
In 2012 the civilian population was 124,314,000
In 2012 the labor force was 101,253,000

Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables.

Simply put, the decrease in civilian population in age group 25-54 was 1,340,000. The decrease in the labor force was a staggering 3,100,000!

Let's explore this idea in still more detail looking at employment, unemployment, and non-employment.

Spotlight on Age Group 25-54

Year	25-54 CP	25-54 LF	25-54 Employed	25-54 Not Employed	25-54 Unemployed
2000	120656	101393	98292	22364	3102
2001	121604	101789	97948	23656	3842
2002	122077	101719	96823	25254	4896
2003	123289	102309	97178	26111	5131
2004	123410	102122	97472	25938	4650
2005	124175	102773	98517	25658	4256
2006	124884	103566	99672	25212	3894
2007	125696	104353	100450	25246	3904
2008	125652	104396	99369	26283	5027
2009	125565	103742	95144	30421	8597
2010	125290	102940	94082	31208	8858
2011	124704	101744	93674	31030	8069
2012	124314	101253	94150	30164	7103

Notes

Unemployment is the difference between employment and the labor force.
Not-employed is the difference between employment and the civilian population.
Numbers are non-adjusted from BLS tables.
There may be rounding errors.

More Key Facts For Age Group 25-54

Between 2007 and 2012 the civilian population declined by 1,340,000
Between 2007 and 2012 the labor force declined by 3,100,000
Between 2007 and 2012 employment fell from 100,450,000 to 94,150,000.
Between 2007 and 2012 employment declined by 6,300,000 jobs on a mere decrease in the civilian population of 1,340,000!

Let's take a look at the above table in chart form.

Civilian Population, Labor Force, Employed, Not-Employed

click on chart for sharper image

Irrefutable Evidence Falling Employment Not Based on Boomer Demographics

This plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 is irrefutable proof that the drop in employment and the falling participation rate is not based on aging boomer demographics.

By calculation, 4,960,000 jobs (6,300,000 - 1,340,000) simply vanished into thin air (in age group 25-54 alone).

Thus, the plunge in employment in the prime working age group of 25-54 also provides strong evidence the stated unemployment rate of 7.8% is bogus by a more sensible measure of unemployment.

Better Measure of Unemployment

I propose this simple definition: If you want a job, are physically able to work a job, and you don't have a job, then you are unemployed.

Actual measures are purposely defined to hide the true state of the economy.

For a close scrutiny of the latest jobs report, please see Establishment Survey +155,000 Jobs; Household Survey +28,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Revised Up, Flat Since September

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish
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Obama's Chance to Do Something Right: Nominate Hagel for Secretary of Defense; Why the War Party Fears Hagel

Posted: 06 Jan 2013 05:43 PM PST

The Financial Time reports Hagel nomination expected this week.

US President Barack Obama is poised to nominate Chuck Hagel as secretary of defence, setting the stage for a tough nomination fight focusing on the former Republican senator's views on Israel and Iran.

The announcement by Mr Obama of a new Pentagon chief to replace Leon Panetta could come as early as Monday, administration officials indicated. Mr Obama returned from a holiday in Hawaii on Sunday.

Mr Hagel's possible nomination has caused an uproar among neoconservatives over his questioning of sanctions and military action against Iran and his statement that a "Jewish lobby" intimidates Congress.

Many Democrats have been unenthusiastic as well, because he is a Republican and over a past statement criticising a Clinton-era diplomatic appointment as "openly, aggressively gay".

But the criticism has been especially virulent from the right, with Israel conservatives labelling him borderline anti-Semitic and suggesting he was intent in making dangerously deep cuts to the defence budget.

Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator from South Carolina and a prominent defence hawk, said on Sunday he was inclined not to support his former Senate colleague because of his "antagonistic" attitude to Israel.

"This is an in-your-face nomination by the president for all those who are supportive of Israel," Mr Graham told CNN.

Got That?

Democrats don't want Hagel simply because Hagel is a Republican. The Republicans do not want him because he is not a war-monger.

That's what this whole thing boils down to.

Why the War Party Fears Hagel

Let's fill in the details with a look at Why the War Party Fears Hagel

Who is Chuck Hagel?

Born in North Platte, Neb., he was a squad leader in Vietnam, twice wounded, who came home to work in Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign, was twice elected U.S. senator, and is chairman of the Atlantic Council and co-chair of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board.

To The Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, however, Hagel is a man "out on the fringes," who has a decade-long record of "hostility to Israel" and is "pro-appeasement-of-Iran."

Hagel's enemies contend that his own words disqualify him.

First, he told author Aaron David Miller that the "Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people up there" on the Hill. Second, he urged us to talk to Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran. Third, Hagel said several years ago, "A military strike against Iran ... is not a viable, feasible, responsible option."

Hagel has conceded he misspoke in using the phrase "Jewish lobby." But as for a pro-Israel lobby, its existence is the subject of books and countless articles. When AIPAC sends up to the Hill one of its scripted pro-Israel resolutions, it is whistled through. Hagel's problem: He did not treat these sacred texts with sufficient reverence.

"I am a United States senator, not an Israeli senator," he told Miller. "I support Israel. But my first interest is I take an oath ... to the Constitution of the United States. Not to a president. Not to a party. Not to Israel. If I go run for Senate in Israel, I'll do that."

Hagel puts U.S. national interests first. And sometimes those interests clash with the policies of the Israeli government.

Chuck Hagel allies launch counter-attack

Politico reports Chuck Hagel allies launch counter-attack.

Brent Scowcroft, who was national security adviser to Presidents Gerald Ford and George H.W. Bush, said Hagel "has a very broad view of American foreign policy and the role in the world. He is very judicious, and he has an outstanding record as a senator, which gives him the knowledge and background to understand about the sometimes fractious relationship between the Congress, especially the Senate, and the administration."

"He got two Purple Hearts on the front lines," Scowcroft added. "That's about the best recommendation you can get from somebody whose job would be to advise on the use of troops around the world. I am honestly surprised, even astonished, at the attacks. I do know where they're coming from, but I don't understand the genesis of them.

Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), a former Army Ranger who serves on the Armed Services Committee and has traveled to war zones with Hagel, said: "Every man and woman in uniform in the Pentagon and across the world will know that he's not only talked the talk, he's walked the walk. … He also has a successful business record. He is an entrepreneur who's succeeded.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter, forcefully defended Hagel on MSNBC's "Morning Joe": "Unlike some of his critics, … he has fought for his country. He has been wounded for this country. He is a man who knows what war is like."

Nonviable Options

I support anyone willing to make this statement "A military strike against Iran ... is not a viable, feasible, responsible option." vs. anyone not willing to make the same statement.

A military strike on Iran would be idiotic, and I have no doubt one would have happened had Romney been elected.

It remains to be see if Obama can get this right. However, Hagel as Secretary of Defense would be a step in the right direction.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

The Bears' Prayer

Posted: 06 Jan 2013 09:58 AM PST

Given the Chicago Bears were put out of their misery last week, missing the playoffs I offer this prayer for 2013

Our Papabear
Who art in heaven
Hallas be thy name
We're havin' no fun
Cause we sure play dumb
At home as we do away
Give us this season
Coach Lovie's Leavin'
And forgive us you must
As we forgive those, scoring big against us
And lead us not into the playoffs
But deliver us from Cutler
Amen

I wrote that in 1997 and only needed to change a few words. Back then it was

Give us this season
Dave Wanstedt's Leavin'

In 1997 I ended with "deliver us from the Packers"

Since Lovie is gone, part of the prayer has been realized already. Fans still await much needed delivery from Cutler.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

SEO Blog

Sunday Exclusive | Best online games sites for 2013

Posted: 05 Jan 2013 09:59 PM PST

I think everybody in spite of age bar like spending time in activities which give them pleasure and happiness after hectic work schedule at office, home or school/colleges. Online games are one of the best ways for recreation and give your mind and body relaxation. The world of online games...
Read more »

Seth's Blog : What people buy when they buy something on sale

What people buy when they buy something on sale

Assuming it's not something they were shopping for in the first place...

The impulse big-sale buy is not a matter of acquiring a high value item they'll need later at a bargain price today.

No, the consumer is spending money in exchange for the feeling, right now, of saving big. The joy of a bargain. The item is secondary, the feeling is what we just paid for.

You wouldn't know that from the way people selling things act, but that's what we buy.

[Aside: More than a billion people on Earth have never purchased anything on sale at a store. The clearance-sale emotion is a learned one, and a recent one at that.]