luni, 2 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


DeLong-in-Wonderland

Posted: 02 Sep 2013 08:10 PM PDT

Preposterous economic proposals from economists living in academic wonderland are the norm.

For example: Please consider the following statements by Brad DeLong, a professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, from his post Central Banking: Banking Camp vs. Macroeconomics Camp.
A prolonged and sustained central-bank policy of purchasing ever-increasing quantities of long-term assets is essential to get a financial sector with diminished appetite for risk to use some of its risk-bearing capacity for its proper purpose of reducing the risk burden on entrepreneurship and enterprise. But such a policy removes diminishes financiers' ability to rely on the easy business of riding the duration yield curve for profits. A simple and straightforward central-bank statement that in the aftermath of 2008-2013 it is clear that inflation targets in the 0-2%/year range run unwarranted downside employment risks, and that inflation targets should instead be in the 2-4%/year range is an obvious no-brainer from the standpoint of an organization that exists to balance aggregate demand to potential aggregate supply.
In Academic Wonderland

Those in academic-wonderland think inflation is the cure for everything. Somehow they know (or believe central banks should know)...

  1. The right amount of inflation
  2. The right amount of risk taking
  3. The right amount of unemployment
  4. The right policies that will achieve 1, 2, and 3 above.

In the Real World

  • In the real world, the Fed can set inflation targets but the market does not have to agree
  • In the real world, The Fed can target money supply but it cannot force consumers to borrow or banks to lend
  • In the real world, asset bubbles frequently form before price inflation hits
  • In the real world, the Fed missed a huge asset bubble in dotcom stocks in 1998-2000
  • In the real world, the Greenspan Fed created the biggest housing and credit bubbles in history
  • In the real world, Bernanke did not even realize there was a housing bubble until it burst

No Brainer or No Brains?

DeLong states "... it is clear that inflation targets in the 0-2%/year range run unwarranted downside employment risks, and that inflation targets should instead be in the 2-4%/year range is an obvious no-brainer..."

  1. If inflation was a cure-all, India would not be in the midst of a currency crisis
  2. If achieving 4% price inflation without causing other economic distortions was so easy, Japan would have had inflation decades ago

I could provide a thousand more examples but won't.

Delong-in-Fantasyland

DeLong humorously bills his blog as "Grasping Reality with Every Possible Tentacle: Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal--Fair, Balanced, and Reality-Based 99.4% of the Time".

Let's return to the real world.

When Nixon closed the gold window, the expansion of credit exploded. The Fed blew asset bubble after asset bubble. Fed policies not only got the US economy in serious trouble twice, those policies continue to play a huge part in the wage discrepancies that inflationists like DeLong moan about.

In the real world, Japan got in trouble to the tune of 250% of GDP with ridiculous Keynesian and monetarist "solutions" that did not work.

In the real world, Japan is in deep trouble financing interest on its national debt, even at rates close to 0%.

Delong-in-Wonderland says the cure for such problems is more of the same polices that got us in trouble in the first place.

DeLong may as well stand in front of the ocean and command the tides to stop. Such is the thinking (or lack thereof) of those in ivory towers who think mind-over-matter and Alice-in-Wonderland policies work.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

India Manufacturing PMI Contracts for First Time Since March 2009; Eurozone Manufacturing PMI 26-Month High of 51.4

Posted: 02 Sep 2013 08:50 AM PDT

A weak manufacturing recovery of sorts is underway in Europe. How long it lasts remains in question, with France not participating in the recovery.

The Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® shows Final Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 26-month high of 51.4 in August (July: 50.3).


Country PMI Rankings



The upturns in production at German, Italian, Dutch and Austrian manufacturers all strengthened on the back of improving inflows of new business. Output also rose further in Ireland and returned to growth in Spain as a result of an increase in new business. All of these nations also reported higher levels of new export business, with rates of increase hitting 28-month highs in Italy and the Netherlands, a 32-month record in Spain and a 29-month high in Austria. German exports rose following five months of decline, while the rate of growth in Ireland held broadly steady at July's seven-month peak.

In contrast, output, new orders and new export orders fell at French manufacturers. Production also declined in Greece, despite stabilisations in both total new business and foreign demand following prolonged spells of contraction.
India Manufacturing PMI Contracts for First Time Since March 2009

The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI™ shows Manufacturing operating conditions deteriorate for first time in over four years.


Business conditions in the Indian manufacturing sector deteriorated during August for the first time in over four years, with both output and new orders falling at faster rates. Export orders also declined, ending an 11-month sequence of growth.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) fell from 50.1 to 48.5 in August, indicating a moderate deterioration of business conditions. The latest index reading was the lowest in four-and-a-half years and the first sub-50.0 reading since March 2009.

Amid reports of fragile economic conditions and subdued client demand, new orders placed at Indian manufacturers fell solidly in August. Furthermore, the rate of contraction accelerated to the fastest since February 2009. Order book volumes across the intermediate goods sector decreased at a sharp and accelerated pace, while consumer goods producers registered a slight decline.

New business from abroad also fell, ending an 11-month sequence of growth. Anecdotal evidence suggested that competitive pressures increased and that demand from key export clients was weaker. Consequently, Indian manufacturers reduced their production volumes for the fourth consecutive month in August and at the fastest rate in four-and-a-half years.
Clearly this is not good for the Rupee. Nor is the outlook promising for India's preposterous growth target of 6 percent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Q&A: Tribes and the reality of worldview

 

Q&A: Tribes and the reality of worldview

Our series continues with my book Tribes. It's nice that we're featuring it on Labor Day, a holiday in the US that celebrates some of the most impactful tribal behavior in recent history.

It's easy to gloss over the key points of the book, because for some, it's frightening to realize that each of us has the ability to find and lead like-minded people to make real and powerful change that matters. Lead, not manage. Like-minded, as opposed to converting those who have no connection to us, to each other or to our goals.

As we shift from an economy dominated by mass marketing of the mass produced, this ability to lead is fundamentally transformative.

The selfish nature of the industrialist (hey, I made this, how do I get people to buy it?) hasn't gone away. Whether it's a small coaching service, a non-profit, a local window cleaning business or a big company, the most misguided assertion is, "I have a tribe, how do I make it bigger?" In fact, you might very well have customers, but it's unlikely you have a tribe, not if you haven't intentionally worked to engage at this level.

So, the question... "One of my favourite passages from Tribes is:   

People don’t believe what you tell them.  They rarely believe what you show them.  They often believe what their friends tell them.  They always believe what they tell themselves.   

My question - what is the best way to join the conversation that is already taking place in the minds and hearts of your tribe?  What is the best way to seek out members of your tribe that have the same beliefs as you?" Thanks to Giovanni Marsico for the question.

We just celebrated the fiftieth anniversary of the March on Washington, and understanding how the organizers that led that singular event succeeded can help us understand how tribes work. They didn't create this movement by merely organizing people who already believed in the urgency of the civil rights movement and were ready to march. No, they organized people who already believed in their community, who already cared very much about what their neighbors (not everyone, just the circle of people from their church, their town, their community) did and thought. Only after they organized were they able to embrace their shared understanding of the enormity of racial segregation and respond to the leaders who made the urgency of the moment so clear.

So they began with the bravest early adopters, the few who held the worldview that it was not only their responsibility to take action, but that taking action now was urgent. Early adopters have a worldview different from their neighbors. They ask themselves, "what's vitally important and how soon can we start?" They gave these folks a path, coordinating and reinforcing their actions.

The next step, so critical, is that they amplified the social connections and media cues that would spread the idea of urgency to neighbors, to people less inclined to take action. "People like us do things like that." It's not an accident that the civil rights movement was lead by a Reverend, and that much of it was based in churches. Those churches were a natural nexus, a place where people were already coming to see what people like them were going to do next.

Worldview isn't sufficient, and worldview isn't impossible to change. But what worldview does is give you the bridge, the ability to engage people in the tribe, and then, and only then, do you have the privilege to change the conversation.

The goal isn't to find people who have already decided that they urgently want to go where you are going. The goal is to find a community of people that desire to be in sync and who have a bias in favor of the action you want them to take.

A long blog post, but worth it I hope: You don't build a tribe about the thing you want to sell. You don't even build a tribe about the thing you want to accomplish. You build it around the community and experience that the tribe members already want to have.

       

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Labor Day

The White House Monday, September 2, 2013
 

Labor Day

As a nation, we celebrate Labor Day to recommit ourselves each year to the idea that everyone who works hard in America has a chance to get ahead.

It's a goal that motivates President Obama every single day. It's why he's fighting for a better bargain for the middle class.

Getting ahead means a good education and a home of your own. It means health care when you get sick and a secure retirement even if you’re not rich. Above all else, it means a good job that pays a good wage.

So this Labor Day, take a moment to watch President Obama talk about why this holiday is so important, then share it with your friends:

Watch: President Obama's Labor Day message

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Planning for Success: Three Essential Consulting Project Plans

Planning for Success: Three Essential Consulting Project Plans


Planning for Success: Three Essential Consulting Project Plans

Posted: 01 Sep 2013 04:13 PM PDT

Posted by Benjamin Estes

Being a consultant can be an intense experience. Every client (and every day!) presents a new challenge. In my experience that isn't a product of the ever-changing state of affairs in SEO or inbound marketing. In fact, I don't lose sleep over every algorithm changeâ€"there are plenty of smarter people from whom I can draw that sort of information.

What keeps me awake at night is how I can shape my projects to make them successful. A lot of people work together with me every day: my clients, my teammates, and teams in other offices. Everyone needs to collaborate to even have a shot at success. How will we pull that off? How will they communicate? What do they need to do this week? Next month? Next quarter?

In short, I focus on planning, and I focus on it in three specific scopes:

  1. Pitching (how do we estimate project size in advance?)
  2. Strategy (how do we know what we are going to do, and when?)
  3. Execution (how do we ensure that these things actually get done?)
Three different tasks with three different plans, each with its own unique purpose. A list of tasks to execute is not a sales pitch any more than it is a high-level summary of the course of a project that helps you decide what to do today. Each of these plans must be treated differently, and with appropriate respect. The most important thing I've discovered as a consultant is this:

You can disagree about what's in a plan, but you must agree about what the plan is intended to accomplish.

Let me walk you through these three types of plans, what the purpose of each is, and what warning signs may crop up if something isn't going smoothly in each stage. I firmly believe that a little conscious effort can improve how we handle each of them, and tune our instincts to spot when something is going wrong. On the other hand, I won't go into techniques for how to create these plansâ€"at that point I'd be writing a book instead of a blog post.

I've definitely not mastered all of this yet, so if you have any lessons of your own to share in the comments I'd love to hear them! All of these planning phases interact with each other, and I can only talk about them from my point of view. In your experience the lines may be fuzzier or more defined. You may treat them very differently. Do share!

Pitching

Why do we have a plan at this stage?

To understand the scope of a project, that we are the right choice for the client, and that the client is the right choice for us.

What should this plan do?

  • Address the client's needs (as far as they are understood)
  • Reflect the limitations of what we can offer and what the client can execute
  • Get the right order of magnitude for project size

What should we watch out for?

  • Anyone talking about scheduling deadlines for deliverablesâ€""We need the keyword deliverable week one, the technical audit week two…"

What I've noticed:

The first time we have to deal with a plan for a new client is when we're trying to convince them to work with us. Obviously we are asking someone to trust us to help them get a good return on their investment, and part of building that trust is to let them know what sort of work we are going to be doing. A good plan during the "pitch" phase helps us do that.

An example plan for a pitch from Distilled. Activities are scheduled chronologically left to right.

You can see from the illustration I've included that for a lot of projects this plan can be quite broad. Basically it amounts to a straightforward summary of what needs to happen and in what order. It's where everything begins, before the engagement has even started.

The other piece of data that is presented concurrently with the plan shown is a budget, which is essentially the size of the project or the proposed bandwidth that Distilled will dedicate to it. To know that a budget should be X dollars per month or that a contract should last for some amount of time seems quite amazing if you think about itâ€"so many variables are involved! But while every project is different, there are a lot of things we can estimate with a good degree of accuracy. The things we have a handle on might be different from yoursâ€"there might be areas where your estimation is a lot better than ours, or vice versa. Consider:

  • Weekly meetings
  • Project management (time spent scheduling)
  • Monthly reports
  • Some common research reports (this may vary wildly, but it helps to have an average we can point to)

These are all elements which can be used to anchor an estimate. There may also be some other administrative tasks or fixed price elements (tools, copy writing) that can be leveraged as well.

But it is ambiguous. The pitches you deal with might be more or less ambiguous than ours, but there is no possible way that a proposal created in the sales process can accurately reflect what will actually happen. No one can predict the future, and the sales process is too far removed from actual work to be treated as definitive when it comes to planning.

And that's what I watch out for. It's not uncommon for leads to demand that we offer them strict calendars for delivery of reports. It's one thing to build in regular meetings and status updatesâ€"those are great, at appropriate intervalsâ€"but if we are talking about rigorously scheduling deliverables like technical audits, or are devising a content strategy, there are too many variables present to know exactly when all that is going to happen. Demands in the sales process for the abstract to be made concrete should be handled very carefully in the sales process. The needs of the client must be addressed, but acquiescing to unreasonable scheduling is likely going to hurt your relationship with a client rather than help it. In other words:

A prospective client can disagree with what is included in the proposed project, but they can't insist on a level of detail that is inappropriate.

In my own experience, there have been a couple of clients in particular who needed help with website redesigns or complete domain migrations. One insisted on an extremely delineated schedule provided in the pitch, with arbitrary deadlines for various deliverables and a project duration which would coincide with the launch of a new site. The justifications for this (on the client's end) were both to get a better understanding of the work being done and to make sure that we would be around to monitor the site's launch. Needless to say, the site didn't launch on timeâ€"few websites ever do. And because of the strict language of our arrangement, we had no flexibility to adapt our strategy or extend the duration to accommodate. I didn't feel good about that outcome.

If I were put in the same position again, working with our sales team on the pitch for this project, would I take a hard line against this style of planning? It's hard to say. But I would be very aware of the potential risks, and at the very least make sure that there were contingencies in place if the scheduling of work turned out to be inappropriate.

Fortunately, we only have to deal with this sort of ambiguity once or twice in each projectâ€"once the engagement has begun, things become more tangible. Once the project has kicked off, we don't talk at such a general level. It's time to take charge, get more information, and figure out how to make things happen. It's time for proper strategy.

Strategy

Why do we have a plan at this stage?

To figure out what work should be done and when it should be done.

What should this plan do?

  • Prioritize work
  • Defer work that can't be done within time constraints

What should we watch out for?

  • Big chunks of time that don't have any tasks assigned to them
  • Too many tasks to accomplish in the time available

What I've noticed:

Once a client has retained our services we need to figure out what we're going to do. Consider: there are a tremendous number of constraints on the work we commit to doing every day. We have a finite number of working hours in a day, week, or month. We may be dependent upon other projects finishing in a timely mannerâ€"will the client's website launch in time? Will the team working on the content finish?

In the face of that uncertainty we still manage to accomplish something. We just have to limit the scope of what we do. Estimate the amount of time various elements of the projects will take, decide what will fit into this month, and commit to executing them. It's that commitment and specificity that distinguishes this phase from the sales pitch phase. And that's why we can't start thinking at this level before we've engaged a clientâ€"we need more information from them, we need their commitment to a project, and we need to know as much as possible about our own bandwidth in a given month.

A screenshot of Distilled's internal scheduling system. The "size" of tasks is defined by how many hours they are anticipated to take. These tasks are kept fairly broad: project management, weekly meetings, etc.

This plan is the response to those needs. We know we need to do keyword research, a technical audit, and Analytics implementationâ€"how long will each take, approximately? Which will we do this month? Which have to wait for information from the client? We answer these to the best of our ability and that becomes our roadmap.

The facts and the constraints that become apparent also become the boundaries of what we can sensibly plan. It's in this boundary that I've noticed most problems crop up. Some clients will present a barrage of questions that threatens to undermine the rest of the scheduled work you're trying to do. In the worst cases, results might be demanded when what you're trying to prioritize is which work should be done. So let's adjust the axiom above for the "strategy" phase:

A client can adjust the priorities of elements within this strategy, but they can't insist that you do more work than there are hours available.

Unless they give you a bunch of money. Just kidding. Sort of.

Consider the alternative to using this sort of strategic scheduling: Every month that a client has you on retainer, you just do whatever they ask until you use up the budget in week two and just stop for the rest of the month. Or you keep working and effectively cut your hourly rate in half. Neither of these solutions sound great, do they?

It took a while for me to get the hang of this "strategy" stuff. Early on in my tenure at Distilled, this manifested in projects that were extremely productive early on. There were tons of technical things to fixâ€"so much low hanging fruit that we at Distilled seemed like miracle workers. No strategy needed, pure actionâ€"for a couple of months. But once that stuff dried up, the relationships sputtered out. I was so enthusiastic about those quick wins that I didn't establish a rapport with the client. I didn't figure out how to work together with them to make their business better. I just told them what to do.

Talking about strategy gave me a language I could speak with my clients that helped improve our relationship and has been much more effective in the long run.

Eventually, you'll work out a sequence of work that fits your schedule and addresses the needs of the client. Once you get to that point, you need to figure out how to execute the work.

Execution

Why do we have a plan at this stage?

To figure out how we're going to do the work that needs to get done.

What should this plan do?

  • Lay out exactly what actions need to be taken
  • Let everyone know who is accountable

What should we watch out for?

  • Tasks that aren't well-defined
  • Tasks that are defined by outcomes (e.g "get 10 links")

What I've noticed:

At this point we're finally we're dealing with something that actually looks like a proper scheduleâ€"a real to-do list. Tasks need to be chunked into pieces that are clearly delineated and actionable. The image below actually reflects a list of tasks for one of my clients.

An activity schedule in Google spreadsheet form from one of my projects.

The biggest problem that I've observed in working with clients in "execution" mode â€"one that consultants often bring upon themselvesâ€"is the tendency to create tasks that aren't well-defined. For instance, if I have "keyword research report" as a line item in my to-do list, I know I'm doing it wrong. Get more specific: Pull data from Searchmetrics, the Google Keyword tool, and Analytics; do analysis in Excel; and so forth.

On the other hand, the issue that has arisen through my interaction with clients is not recognizing when something is being put in this "to-do" list that is outside the scope of what we laid out in the strategy. Once you know what you are doing in a given month, and you have broken that down into individual tasks, you have to be careful about committing to other things. It's very common to field random questions from a point of contact or their teammates, and it is usually best for the relationship for you to answer them. In order to do that, it is smart to schedule extra time for this kind of ad hoc support questionâ€"and if you starting going over that time you should be seriously concerned. To wit:

A client can negotiate the tasks in this schedule to complete the work you're setting out to do, but they can't add unrelated elements (i.e. change the strategy).

There are as many methods of keeping track of to-do lists as there are people doing to dos. How you actually accomplish these tasks is up to youâ€"I prefer OmniFocus, while I know some at Moz have a bit of an Asana obsession. The important thing as that at some point, in order to go from a "strategy" phase to actually accomplishing something, you have to come up with a list of actions.

I know I've talked a lot about high-level planning in the "pitch" and "strategy" phases, but I should note that at the end of the day, getting better at scheduling the actual work is the most important element of the process. You can meditate all day on the structure of a perfect project, but unless you actually do something there is no chance for success. I consider it the Minimum Viable Plan, so to speak.

Review

Planning isn't easy, but it gets better with practice. And that will, in turn, have a positive effect on all the projects you work on. Let me say it once again:

You can disagree about what's in a plan, but you must agree about what the plan is intended to accomplish.

This rule is something I intuitively use more and more when planning a project and when issues arise over the course of a project. Once you start thinking about these things in increasingly conscious ways, their value becomes exponentially more obvious in ways you can't anticipate.

Do you think about projects in these three phases? If so, what are the warning signs that you've spotted in your experiences?


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Seth's Blog : Scuff-proof shoes

 

Scuff-proof shoes

There are two ways to make your shoes scuff-proof:

1. You can invest in a chemical process that involves an impermeable shine and be on high alert to avoid anything that might be damaging to that shine

or

2. You can wear well-worn, authentic shoes that are already scuffed

When we know and understand you and your brand, warts and all, it's really unlikely that a new scuff is going to change our opinion of who you are and what you do.

       

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