Central Perk: 17 aug. 2015

luni, 17 august 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Bond Spread Blowout Revisited; Fred Data Error
Huge Shipping Delays for Toyota, Deere, Walmart, etc. in Wake of Tianjin Warehouse Explosion
"Out of the Blue" Plunge in New York Region Manufacturing; Optimism Persists
Mish with Max Keiser in Chicago, Discussing Chicago Economics and Pizza
Blowout in Some Corporate Bond Spreads; Bond Funds Post 3rd Week of Outflows

Bond Spread Blowout Revisited; Fred Data Error

Posted: 17 Aug 2015 11:12 PM PDT

Yesterday, in Blowout in Some Corporate Bond Spreads; Bond Funds Post 3rd Week of Outflows, I posted some charts directly created by "Fred" the Federal Reserve data repository.

Those charts were in error, most likely a data feed error, not at this end.

For example, please consider a chart of the spread between CCC rated bonds and BB Bonds.

CCC Minus BB (8-17-2015)

CCC Minus BB (8-17-2015)

I am not sure precisely where the error was, but it was not on this end. There was either an error of some sort at Fred or an error of some sort at BofA.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Huge Shipping Delays for Toyota, Deere, Walmart, etc. in Wake of Tianjin Warehouse Explosion

Posted: 17 Aug 2015 02:21 PM PDT

In the wake of the gigantic Tianjin warehouse explosion on August 12 (See Massive Fireball Explosions in Chinese Port City of Tianjin Kill 17; Video Footage, Images, Logistics, Reader Anecdotes) repercussions are still being felt.

Reader Tim Wallace writes "This could have an interesting impact. Peak shipping season should be going full bore right now out of China. Companies impacted will include Walmart. Diversion to other ports always costs more money. Fortunately I ship out of Yantian and HK."

3PLs Eye Alternatives

SupplyChain 247 writes 3PLs Eye Alternatives Due To Severe Road Access Limits Following Tianjin Explosion.

Third-Party Logistics providers and shippers are looking to re-route cargo to other Chinese ports following Wednesday's devastating explosion at the port of Tianjin.

The vessel access channel to the port is now open again to two-way traffic, one terminal operator confirmed to The Loadstar, but attention has now turned to access roads that have remained closed or subject to diversions, which lead to the port's numerous box terminals.

Several forwarders reported that they expect the nearby ports of Dalian and Qingdao, some eight to nine hours away by road, "will bear the majority of the burden".

One major 3PL confirmed that "all ocean export and import operations via Xingang/Tianjin are suspended, which may last for a week or longer". The source added that it was anticipating news of cargo damage and was in close contact with customers, and had a contingency plan in place.

"3PLs and shippers are looking at alternative ports such as Dalian and Ningbo, which will be costly as we need to truck these boxes on roads which are closed. "It may take three to four weeks to resume to normalcy."

One of the biggest problems, reported one company active in the city, is that the one-stop logistics centre was heavily damaged. "It's where everyone got their paperwork done.

"That's where the whole community – forwarders, hauliers and the rest – were doing all the other administrative activities. It was very efficient, and now companies have to go directly to their respective individual terminals to get this done."

There remains doubt as to whether the individual terminals have the administrative infrastructure to deal with the upsurge in paperwork in the interim period.

Companies affected included Volkswagen and Toyota, which lost cars waiting to be shipped. The Wall Street Journal reported that GSK, Airbus, Wal-Mart and Deere & Co were among multinational companies that operated factories or distribution centres in the area.

At least 50 people died in the blast, while hundreds were injured.

Confusion Mounts Over Ownership

The Financial Times reports Confusion Mounts Over Tianjin Warehouse Ownership.

China is awash with confusion over the true ownership of the hazardous goods warehouse that exploded in Tianjin last week even as the Communist party seeks to assure the public there will be no cover-up.

Identifying owners of businesses in China has been complicated since exposés of the family wealth of the Communist party's most powerful leaders led to greater restrictions on corporate ownership registries.

The task is further complicated by the practice of individuals legally holding shares on behalf of other, unnamed but more powerful, people, often on the basis of a verbal agreement.

Adding to the speculation, Tianjin's online corporate registry database was inaccessible for four days after the blasts. When access resumed on Monday, a search for Ruihai Logistics yielded a curious gap.

The company was registered in 2012 but its current legal owners only bought their shares in 2013. The historic list of changes that should have reflected the previous owners did not appear.

Spectacular Explosion

Link if video does not play: Tianjin Warehouse Explosion

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

"Out of the Blue" Plunge in New York Region Manufacturing; Optimism Persists

Posted: 17 Aug 2015 11:11 AM PDT

Out of the Blue Plunge

Last month, the Empire State Manufacturing report eked out a small gain, giving economists grounds for optimism in the manufacturing sector. This month, the index plunged nearly nineteen percentage points to -14.92, well below the lowest Bloomberg Econoday Estimate of 3.0.

Out of the blue, the Empire State index has plunged deeply into negative column this month, to minus 14.92 in August vs plus 3.86 in July. This is by far the weakest reading of the recovery, since April 2009. New orders, which had already been weak in this report, fell from July's minus 3.50 to minus 15.70 for the weakest reading since November 2010. Backlog orders, which had also been weak, came in at minus 4.55 from minus 7.45. Shipments, in the weakest reading since March 2009, fell to minus 13.79 from positive 7.99.

Last week's industrial production report, boosted by the auto sector, offered hope but today's report is a reminder that weak exports and weakness in the energy sector are stubborn negatives for the factory sector. Today's results scramble the outlook for Thursday's Philly Fed report which was expected to show moderate strength.

Economists vs. Weathermen

Reader Tim Wallace pinged me with this comment: "Only weather forecasters and economists get to miss their forecasts by so much."

Empire State Manufacturing Index

The above chart from the Empire State Manufacturing Report.

The headline general business conditions index tumbled nineteen points to -14.9, its lowest level since 2009. The new orders and shipments indexes also fell sharply, to -15.7 and -13.8 respectively, pointing to a marked decline in both orders and shipments. The inventories index dropped to -17.3, signaling that inventory levels were lower. Price indexes showed that input prices were slightly higher, while selling prices were flat.

Labor market indicators suggested that employment levels and hours worked were little changed. Indexes for the six-month outlook registered somewhat greater optimism than in July, with the future general business conditions index rising seven points to 33.6.

Optimism Persists

The chart shows perpetual optimism in expected conditions vs. existing conditions. There is absolutely no reason to believe manufacturing will dramatically improve.

Instead, there is every reason to think manufacturing will get worse, led by autos.

As I have pointed out, record or near record auto sales will not go on perpetually. Yet the preponderance of economists seem to believe it will.

When autos turn, the Fed will be in for a rude awakening.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Mish with Max Keiser in Chicago, Discussing Chicago Economics and Pizza

Posted: 17 Aug 2015 10:28 AM PDT

A couple weeks ago I had the pleasure of meeting Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert, downtown Chicago.

On the lakefront, in a very informal chat, we discussed the sorry state of affairs regarding Chicago finances and education. Max released the video yesterday.

There is nothing new in the video for Mish readers, but I had a fun time doing a couple segments with Max.

Link if Video does not play: Mish with Max. The video is about 25 minutes long, and I come in half way.

By the way, my favorite pizza restaurant in the world, discussed in the above video but not named, is Chicago Pizza and Oven Grinder located at 2121 N. Clark.

It's not thick, thin, stuffed, double decker, or triple decker. Instead it looks like this.

The pizza comes in an extremely hot ceramic bowl (upper left image but bowl not visible). A server with thick padded gloves flips the bowl over and the pizza looks as shown in the bottom two images. The second image is their Mediterranean bread, the best flatbread I have ever had. The flatbread is ginormous. The above image does not do justice to the size.

I often make bets with people that CPOG has the most unique pizza in the world. Since tastes vary, I cannot claim best, although it is best for me. I made such a bet with economist Steve Keen and he paid up.

Max said I lost the bet on the basis it was not pizza we were served, but spaghetti (even though there are no noodles in the pie) just tomato sauce, meat and huge whole button mushroom (I leave the mushrooms out). Vegetarian is available.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Blowout in Some Corporate Bond Spreads; Bond Funds Post 3rd Week of Outflows

Posted: 17 Aug 2015 12:01 AM PDT

Bond Funds Post 3rd Week of Outflows

Reuters reports High-yield, Investment-Grade Funds Post Third Week of Outflows.

U.S-based high-yield bond funds reported $1.2 billion in outflows, while U.S.-based investment-grade corporate bond funds posted their biggest cash withdrawals since June 2013, at $1.8 billion, data from Thomson Reuters' Lipper service showed on Thursday. The latest figures, for the week ended Aug. 12, mark the third straight week of outflows for the two fund categories, Lipper said. "The flows data indicated investors were running away from high yield in both mutual funds and ETFs," said Pat Keon, research analyst at Lipper.

Reader Jerome who emailed the above link also noted rising spreads in corporate bonds. Here are some charts and a table that highlight what's happening.

AA vs. BBB vs. BB Junk Bond Yields