Central Perk: 15 feb. 2012

miercuri, 15 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

24% of Small Businesses Not Hiring Because They May Not Be In Business a Year From Now; 76% Simply Don't Need More Employees
Farage: Globalist Troika Driving Greece Towards Violent Revolution; Godfrey Bloom calls Eurobonds "Pathway to Hell" like Subprime Mortgages
Obama Wants Cheaper Pennies and Nickels; Why Not Do Away With Both?
Euro Area Q4 'Flash' GDP at -0.3% q/q, First Negative Reading Since Q2 2009

24% of Small Businesses Not Hiring Because They May Not Be In Business a Year From Now; 76% Simply Don't Need More Employees

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 05:43 PM PST

The question of the day is "Why Aren't Small Businesses Hiring?" Most of the answers should be obvious, but let's take a look at a recent Gallup Poll on Hiring to confirm.

85% of those surveyed -- are most likely to say the reasons they are not doing so include not needing additional employees; worries about weak business conditions, including revenues; cash flow; and the overall U.S. economy. Additionally, nearly half of small-business owners point to potential healthcare costs (48%) and government regulations (46%) as reasons. One in four are not hiring because they worry they may not be in business in 12 months.

Negative Surprises

That 76% have no need for more employees is not at all surprising. Who wants to hire in this environment?

Healthcare costs are a genuine concern. We have heard that story time and time again. That nearly half cite healthcare costs should not be surprising.

One number however, did stand out.

Edge of a Precipice

That 24% cannot and will not hire because they fear going out of business within a year says quite a lot.

Bear in mind this is in spite of the fact that "economic confidence is approaching its highest levels in the last four years. U.S. small-business owners are also about as optimistic about their business and their future hiring as they've been at any point during that time."

This economy is on the edge of a precipice and few see it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Farage: Globalist Troika Driving Greece Towards Violent Revolution; Godfrey Bloom calls Eurobonds "Pathway to Hell" like Subprime Mortgages

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:48 AM PST

European parliament member Nigel Farage blames Troika for the violence and destruction in Greece.

Link if video does not play: Farage: Globalist Troika Driving Greece Towards Violent Revolution

"Violence and destruction in Greece that you saw on Sunday is being caused directly because people have had their democratic rights taken from them. What else can they do? If I was a Greek citizen I would have been out there joining those protests. I would be out there trying to bring down this monstrosity that has been put upon those people. .... Greece being driven into the ground and quite frankly when it comes to chaos, you ain't seen nothing yet."

Money-Printing, Central Banking Scammers Belong in Prison

Godfrey Bloom, member of European parliament compares Eurobonds to subprime debt and a pathway to hell.

Link if video does not play: Money-Printing, Central Banking Scammers Belong in Prison

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Obama Wants Cheaper Pennies and Nickels; Why Not Do Away With Both?

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 07:54 AM PST

Thanks to the Fed, pennies and nickels are now nearly worthless, except en masse, and except for the metal content of them (at least for now).

Please consider Obama wants cheaper pennies and nickels.

The U.S. Mint is facing a problem -- especially during these penny-pinching times. It turns out it costs more to make pennies and nickels than the coins are worth.

And because of that, the Obama administration this week asked Congress for permission to change the mix of metal that goes to make pennies and nickels, an expensive recipe that has remained unchanged for more than 30 years.

To be precise, it cost 2.4 cents to make one penny in 2011 and about 11.2 cents for each nickel.

Given the number of coins that the mint produces -- 4.3 billion pennies and 914 million nickels last year alone, those costs add up pretty quickly: a little more than $100 million for each coin.

But even though Treasury has been studying new metals since 2010, it has yet to come up with a workable mix that would definitely be cheaper, and it has no details yet as to what metals should be used or how much it would save to do so.

Even if a cheaper metal can be used, it might not take the cost of a penny down to less than a penny.

Just the administrative cost of minting 4.3 billion pennies costs almost a half-cent per coin by itself, leaving precious little room to make a penny for less than a cent, no matter the raw material used.

The raw material cost of the metals used in a current penny is only about 0.6 cents per coin, according to prices quoted on the London Metal Exchange, and a breakdown of a penny's composition from the mint. The mint paid 1.1 cents on average for the metal used in a penny in 2011, but that is the cost of ready-to-stamp blanks from the supplier, not raw material traded on commodity markets.

Treasury spokesman Matt Anderson said Treasury has the authority to stop making the dollar coins on its own, but it can't change the mix of metals in pennies without permission.

As for the suggestion of some that the penny be abandoned altogether, Anderson said only "that is not a proposal we have put forward."

Pennies are a nuisance and to a lesser degree, so are nickels.

Rounding up every transaction to the nearest nickel or dime should be easy enough, and there is no legitimate reason to not do precisely that.

There would be a step-up in productivity if people did not have to deal with the damn things.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Euro Area Q4 'Flash' GDP at -0.3% q/q, First Negative Reading Since Q2 2009

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 07:15 AM PST

Via email from Barclays Capital : Euro Area Q4 'Flash' GDP at -0.3% Quarter Over Quarter

Eurostat has estimated that euro area GDP contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q4 in its "flash" form (BC & consensus: -0.4% q/q). This is the first negative reading since Q2 09 (-0.2% q/q), and the most negative since Q1 09 (-2.7% q/q).

As we have already pointed out in our earlier comment (Euro area Q4 GDP wrap-up: Divergent news but still looking for -0.4% q/q for the euro area), today's outturn is the result of a diverging trend vs expectations. On the negative side, we estimate (because we have applied our own seasonal adjustment to the published non-seasonally adjusted data) that the Greek GDP fell by 5.1% q/q, much more strongly than our -1.0% q/q forecast, and the Netherlands also dropped by a severe -0.7% q/q (BC & consensus: -0.3% q/q). Italy also came in below expectations (-0.1pp) at -0.7% q/q. On the bright side, Germany (-0.2% q/q, vs -0.4% q/q expected) and particularly France (+0.2% q/q, vs -0.2% q/q projected) came in stronger than expected.

After pencilling in the actual GDP levels for France and the Netherlands, and the quarterly changes from the eurostat release for the other countries (using FSO for Germany), our tracking estimate is at -0.358% q/q, thus close to the rounding point. Beyond the fact that we don't have any precise information about the exact quarterly change for other large economies (Germany, Italy, Spain) - where decimal places can play a significant role - we would like also to highlight that Ireland should also be considered a significant source of uncertainty. Due to the usual volatility of its GDP quarterly path, it could almost make the overall aggregation sway one way on its own. We currently expect Irish Q4 GDP to fall by 0.7% q/q (after -1.9% q/q in Q3 and +1.4% q/q in Q2).

Although, we don't have any details at this stage, we draw from the countries that have released expenditure breakdowns (France, the Netherlands, and only broad indications in the case of Germany) that investment is likely to have been the main source of upside surprise vs our forecast. One explanation for this could be that, despite the loss of confidence of businesses, which reportedly (notably by the PMIs) troughed in Q4, we believe that relatively clement weather (compared to what we have experienced so far in Q1) may have notably boosted construction investment. The confidence negative feedback loop might also have impacted businesses less than we feared.

Actual Q4 GDP prints [after Q3]

Euro area: -0.3% q/q (BC & consensus: -0.4% q/q) [after +0.1% q/q].
Germany: -0.2% q/q (BC: -0.4% q/q, consensus: -0.3% q/q) [after +0.6% q/q revised up from +0.5% q/q].
France: +0.2% q/q (BC: -0.2% q/q, consensus: -0.1% q/q) [after +0.3% q/q].
Italy : -0.7% q/q (BC & consensus: -0.6% q/q) [after -0.2% q/q].
Spain : -0.3% q/q (already released as flash) [after 0.0% q/q].
Netherlands : -0.7% q/q (BC & consensus: -0.3% q/q) [after -0.4% q/q revised down from -0.2% q/q].
Belgium : -0.2% q/q (already released as flash) [after -0.1% q/q].
Austria : -0.1% q/q (BC : -0.2% q/q) [after +0.2% q/q].
Finland : 0.0% q/q (BC: -0.3% q/q) [after +0.9% q/q].

Contracting Economies

Germany, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, [Portugal and Greece].

Not Contracting Yet Economies

Finland, France

Europe is clearly in recession and that recession will accelerate to the downside as various austerity measures and tax hikes kick in.

As I said yesterday in EU to Punish Spain for Delaying Austerity Measures; European Job Losses Accelerate ...

Signs point to a deep and lengthy recession, not the shallow recession forecast by economists. I seriously wonder what the heck they are looking at.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Everything You Wanted to Know About Pinterest [Infographic]
Gyroscopic Self-Leveling Pool Table on a Cruise Ship
El Diablo Restaurant - Cooking Food on a Volcano

Everything You Wanted to Know About Pinterest [Infographic]

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 01:32 PM PST

Pinterest is the hottest new social networking site. The virtual bookmarking site allows users, or "pinners," to collect photos and videos that link back to the products they love. Pinners create boards to share all of the things they find funny, delicious, beautiful, inspirational or otherwise interesting.

Lemon.ly, a visual marketing firm, took a deep dive into the data to catalog Pinterest's stunning rise and produced the infographic below.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Gyroscopic Self-Leveling Pool Table on a Cruise Ship

Posted: 14 Feb 2012 09:36 PM PST

If you ever travel on a cruise ship named "Radiance of the Seas" by Royal Caribbean, you might run into a pool table like this. As the ship moves the pool table adjusts so that the billiard balls don't move at all, even in rough weather. If you look closely you can see that the balls remain still as the table moves, enabling you to play in almost any conditions.

El Diablo Restaurant - Cooking Food on a Volcano

Posted: 14 Feb 2012 04:34 PM PST

Barbecue fans, behold El Diablo Restaurant, an unusual eatery in Lanzarote, Spain that has a grill set atop an active volcano. There is no danger of the volcano erupting and blowing the place sky high, but the chefs do use the heat from it to cook the food. The grill has been in place since the 1970s, and leverages abundant volcanic heat to cook food. El Diablo Restaurant serves traditional Canary Islands cuisine.

Be Careful Using AdWords for Keyword Research

Posted: 14 Feb 2012 12:49 PM PST

Posted by randfish

For the past decade, most of us in the field of search have relied on Google's AdWords data (either in the public tool, the API or the tools inside AdWords accounts). It's the best source we've got, but many marketers may not realize that sadly, the numbers and queries may not always match up to what's actually happening on Google's search engine. I'll illustrate with an example.

An SEOmoz blog post ranks in the top 2-3 results for many keywords around the phrase "blog traffic." Here's a screenshot of some of those rankings:

Google Search for "Improve Blog Traffic"

I went into our Google Analytics account and pulled the related keywords along with how much traffic they've sent in the past 30 days:

Moz Google Analytics Data

Then I went to Google's AdWords Tool and searched for "blog traffic" to compare the suggestions:

AdWords Search for "Blog Traffic"

Here I got confused, because many of the terms that we receive traffic for are NOT shown above in the list... Is Google hiding them? Do they not know about them?

To be sure, I typed them into Google's AdWords Tool manually, performing [exact match] searches only:

AdWords Tool Data

Holy cow... There they are. So, AdWords does have volume for these, and will display it, but only if you enter them exactly (or rather, "more exactly" - you can find them if you do sets of imprecise, but closer queries, too). I made the chart below to illustrate which terms were available from the broad reserach:

Comparison of Keywords Suggested vs. Those with Volume

As you can see, there's ~50% of the terms not shown in the suggestion list, which is fairly substantive and could lead to some serious missed targeting opportunities.

THE IMPORTANT LESSON: Running discovery-focused searches in AdWords may not show you all the valuable/high-volume keyword phrases connected to a word/phrase.

There are a few ways to address this challenge:

If you have the budget, my top recommendation is to buy a few, very broad keywords in AdWords, send them to a relevant landing page on your site, but realize you probably will lose money on the campaign. The goal isn't conversions, but rather to learn by watching the keyword terms/phrases for which you get impressions. This is also great conversion-testing if you have the budget to invest, but even a week or two of data can be highly valuable for future keyword targeting.
When searching in AdWords, start broad, and then enter narrower queries and note the new phrases that come up. Make sure to use exact match, and be diligent in testing variations. Google only lies through omission.
The relative numbers of searches aren't perfect (as you can see above), but they are relatively decent. In fact, I'd say they've improved in what they show vs. the actuals you'll see compared to prior years. However,
Use your own analytics as a guide to find new terms/phrases you might be imperfectly targeting. And if you see keyword variations that have a unique or different intent, it might even pay to create a more targeted page for that query, and you often need less work to rank, since Google uses the "indented results" system to drop a second URL from the same domain directly underneath the first one on a given page.

Now I'd love to hear from you - what are your experiences around keyword research in AdWords? Are you seeing the same thing we are? You can share your thoughts in the comments and/or use the poll below (from a new service called Quipol that has some fun twists):

Quipol

BTW - Given that 30%+ of our referrals from Google searches are keyword (not provided), I'd venture to guess that all of the numbers from our analytics are underreporting by about that same percent. Keep that in mind when comparing the data from AdWords vs. our analytics above.

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Google+: The Ultimate You-Sourced Search Engine

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 11:33 AM PST

Posted by Erica McGillivray

Google+ has crept into SERPs near you. From getting hyper-personalized results popping up everywhere to recommending people to follow or showing you results you've +1'd or posts you've made, Google+ isn't giving you the choice to ignore it. (Unless you use Bing, Yahoo!, or another search service entirely.) Sure, there are ways to depersonalize it; but who has the time for another click, unless you're really getting results you aren't happy with or being an SEO super-sleuth. From author spotlights or highlights from those you've circled, it seems the closer you are to a keyword and its SERPs, the more intense the personalization gets.

Check out my entire page of personalized results when I search for "SEOmoz":

SEOmoz SERP personalized for Erica McGillivray

As anyone knows who's tried to do a little bit of personalization to customers, personalization is hard. There are zillions of factors and complex algorithms to work through. But we also know when it comes to conversions, personalization is a huge win-sparkle.

But Google has the employee bandwidth and some of the best minds of several generations working on making personalization happen. Despite their numerous products, search is Google's crown jewel; 80% of searches are done there because they generally deliver better results than their competitors. (Sorry, Bing and Yahoo!, but "Google" is a verb.) In the long-run, personalized results are going to be easier for Google and provide more relevant results for users, which will keep users coming back for more.

Google+ Worker of a You-Sourced Search Engine

Have you signed up for a Google product? Congratulations, you are now a Google volunteer. No, you don't get any benefits except one: using Google's (mostly) free products. Instead, as you surf the web, your movements will make your own crowd-sourced engine. Or as a crowd of one, you-sourced.

When you search for "angel," are you looking for a brooding vampire, not ethereal creatures or charity networks? Don't worry, Google already knows because you're subscribed to the Tumblr Angel Does Stuff and you wrote a blog post about how much you love Lilah Morgan. Not to mention, you've visited Angel's IMDB page while rewatching it with your sweetie and playing "who's that actor?"

Maybe you're new to a field, say it's "SEO." Go ahead and circle Rand Fishkin, Danny Sullivan, or Aaron Wall, SEO influencers as suggested by Google, and bam: their recommendations guide your results.

SEO SERP recommending me to follow Danny Sullivan and SEOmoz

Note: Danny Sullivan, more circlers than Lady Gaga.

Got Authority? Yes, You Do.

A huge problem Google has right now is site authority and quality. Page rank and domain authority are attempts to inform rankings which sites have authority and quality content. But this doesn't always work. Spammers and black hats have had years of perfecting the dark force to beat Google.

Last year's Panda algorithm change was a direct assault on sites with duplicate and weak content that were squeezing into rankings. Panda didn't happen to cause SEOs to tear our hair out. No, it was a direct punch against snake oil SERP results and results that made all of us go "meh." You can argue that some sites didn't deserve the hit and got caught in the crossfire, but Panda tossed out a lot of junk.

Now in combination with Panda's tweaks, Google+ creates the ultimate SERP authority: you. You are awesome, and no one knows what you want better than you. Google+ just isn't sending you SERPs based on your subtle hints and wish list anymore; now, it's going directly to you, the source. And if you don't know about it, perhaps your "circles" will.

I've told Google that I love Sherlock, the BBC series, and think way too much about it. Google serves me "Sherlock" SERPs completely filled with what I love. No mention of the books, other TV or film, or various businesses, services, or products using the Sherlock name. My personalized SERP kicks off 3 links that "normally" rank in the top 10. Including a pub chain in Texas, which I'm sure fought hard for that ranking.

Sherlock SERP personalized for Erica McGillivray

Additionally, by giving bloggers the incentive of authority and our tiny photos in SERPs, hooking in your Google+ profile to your blogging platform creates a type of article authority Google hasn't had before. There's a reason Rand has a ridiculous number of Google+ followers; if he put out crap, they'd uncircle him. Now Google knows that Rand's articles are quality content -- mostly likely around SEO, inbound marketing, and entrepreneurship -- Rand's content becomes an extremely strong "safe" ranking factor to serve results on. And he gets his smiling face as a recommended follow for "SEO."

If you haven't started building your authority with the articles you're writing, it's time to jump in. You too can become a safe SERP in your field, interest, or hobby. Are you an authority on something? Is your brand an authority? It's time to start creating content, curating content, and building up your following. If you're considered an authority, your rankings may jump higher than they've ever gone before.

SEOs: No Longer a Pain in Cutts' Butt

Google+ radically changes an SEO's game strategy towards rankings. Good luck getting another SERP into my results for "SEOmoz" the old-fashioned way. That said, the cries of "SEO's ~~finally~~ dead" still remain highly exaggerated. Sloppy SEO and some black hat tactics are certain staked in their tracks. Your keyword stuffed article isn't going to get my +1.

Now I don't expect Google+ to remain ungamed. There's a whole subset of the SEO industry who's made their way on gaming every change Google's made. But the amount of time and energy you'd have to put into gaming Google+ to convince me that you're not a bot...I think you got a little bleach on your hat there.

Ultimately, white hat tactics of quality, linkbait content will prevail in the world of Google+. Whether you're focusing on how-tos or selling jewelry, your content isn't going to get the love of the +1 if it doesn't appeal to the people.

Nowhere Near Perfect

Right now, Google's crowd-sourcing is nowhere near perfect. Not enough people are using Google+ on a regular basis to make a huge impact. Yes, Google says they have 90 million users (800 million on Facebook and 200 million on Twitter for comparison), but no one's sure just how many people are actually using it.

I know my personal information stream seems a little bare with a few heavy-weight champions *cough*SEOs*cough* dominating my results. Not to mention, my own information comes up a lot. This is great when I share out a link, and I'm trying to find it again. This is not so great if I'm say looking for an image of Doctor Who as I still have those on my harddrive. Or if I'm searching for videos of adorable baby pandas (very likely) and Google serves me White Board Friday Videos posted on SEOmoz's Google+; no offense, SEOmoz teammates, but I'd much rather watch the bears with the giant heads.

Besides mass user adoption, the biggest hurdles left are of the philosophical nature: privacy and group-think.

Privacy, know our friend "not provided"? Know how Google Analytics went to court in Germany? Or how SOPA came about? When the non-web marketer sees their friends showing up in their SERPs, they're going to start freaking out. I have a feeling that zombies are on the way out and Skynet and killer robots are back as the villains reflected in our cultural subconscious.

Subtle personalization has been happening for a long time. We like seeing ourselves reflected back in the mirror of advertising, and the best inbound marketing reflects what we need to see, not just what we want to see.

"I'd rather make a show 100 people need to see than a show that 1,000 people want to see." -- Joss Whedon, producer/writer of Buffy: the Vampire Slayer and Firefly

I love the above quote from Whedon because this is what personalization does at it's best. It gives us what we need, not just want we want. And in giving us what we need, we're less likely to call shenanigans on Google's privacy policy. (Just look at Facebook, who may have even better access to personalization data than Google, and a platform that people get lost on for hours.)

By giving us what we need, Google will also give us diversity of opinions and our feeds can avoid group-think. If my results are completely personalized based on my searches and my circles, they are unlikely to carry thoughts that aren't similar to my own. Seeing only results from other liberal-minded, web marketers who are giant geeks isn't what I need, even if that's the feed I may want to live in.

Diversity of ideas

In order to be truly innovative and understand humanity on the whole, we need a variety of ideas. I need to know that people disagree with my opinions, whether political, personal, or otherwise. And our "circles" have an inherent selection bias in that we generally surround ourselves with people like ourselves.

Not to mention, our circles aren't experts in everything. My coworker Jen Lopez found that her circles don't know anything about hotels in Madrid:

Google+ Personalization: Easy-as-Pie Win-Sparkle.

As Google+ builds and more people find value in adopting it as part of their social world, the SERPs will improve. And given that Google adjusts its search algorithm over 500 times in a year, I suspect there's already geniuses working on these problems. The more Google builds out Google+ for personalization and pushes its you-sourced engine, the better the results will get and the easier it will be for Google to serve each of us what we need.

As we head into a world of personalization, we SEOs are going to focus on the creation of content and distribution of content more than ever. We're investing in building our authority on subjects for our businesses and hobbies, and there's nothing better than getting in on the ground-floor.

Make Google+ personalization a win-sparkle for you and your customers. Embrace better content, build your own authority, and make the you-sourced search engine even cooler.

miercuri, 15 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Be Careful Using AdWords for Keyword Research

Be Careful Using AdWords for Keyword Research

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

miercuri, 15 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Be Careful Using AdWords for Keyword Research

Be Careful Using AdWords for Keyword Research

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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