Central Perk: 6 sept. 2015

duminică, 6 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Should We Change the Name "Labor Day" to "Robot Day"?

Posted: 06 Sep 2015 06:26 PM PDT

Happy Labor Day!

Here's the question of the day, on this Labor Day weekend: Will a robotic economy do away with human work?

That's what Barron's suggests in its pay-walled editorial commentary: The End of Labor?

The message is clear, although it's delivered by a voice that sounds almost as mechanical as the process it describes: "Automation is inevitable. It's a tool to produce abundance for little effort. We need to start thinking now about what to do when large sections of the population are unemployable through no fault of their own. What to do in a future where, for most jobs, humans need not apply."

That's the only clip non-subscribers see.

Reader John pinged me with this inside quote "America will have to change the name of Labor Day to Robot Day — at least until artificial intelligence catches up, and robots become citizens."

Doom for Workers?

PBS NewsHour asks Do labor-saving robots spell doom for American workers?

The onslaught of automation that's replacing human workers -- from golf caddies to bank tellers -- may be putting us on a path to humanitarian crisis, says Jerry Kaplan, author of "Humans Need Not Apply." As technology grows and jobs become obsolete, income inequality and poverty could follow for millions of Americans. Economics correspondent Paul Solman reports.

My Take

Automation has always been with us. We went from horses to cars. Candles to electricity. Phone operators to wireless.

Jobs never vanished. And standards of living rose every step of the way.

Is it different now? If so, why?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

China's Central Bank Says Stock Market Correction "Mostly Over"

Posted: 06 Sep 2015 09:20 AM PDT

In remarks to the G20 finance ministers, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank says China Stock Market Correction 'Mostly Over'.

In remarks at the G20 in Turkey, the People's Bank of China quoted Mr Zhou as saying: "At present, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the dollar is stabilising, the correction in the stock market is already mostly over and the financial markets show hope for stabilising."

Mr Zhou acknowledged that "before June, the Chinese stock market bubble grew continuously", but added that of the three major corrections since June, only the most recent in mid-August had a global impact. Chinese government action had prevented further slides and systemic risks, he added.

"Following the correction, levels of leverage are clearly lower and there has been no notable effect on the real economy," he added.

The PBoC issued its paraphrased transcript of Mr Zhou's remarks only after Taro Aso, Japanese finance minister, told reporters that Mr Zhou had three times used the term "burst" referring to the stock market bubble. The Chinese transcript uses the more decorous term "correction", and refers to a "bubble" only once.

Words for Us and Words for Them

Apparently it's OK for central bank officials to use the word bubble even though others have been forced to make public confessions for using "emotionally charged" words.

The media was ordered not to use words such as slump, spike, plunge, and collapse. Analysts were instructed "Do not conduct in-depth analysis, and do not speculate on or assess the direction of the market."

Following a witch hunt, one poor soul was forced to make a public confession for saying the wrong things.

For more details, see my post Witch Hunt Victim "Confesses": Word Police in China vs. Word Police in US.

Shanghai Stock Index Daily

Normally the word "correction" means a slide of over 10% but less than 20%. Anything greater is called a "bear market".

From 5178.19 to 2850.71 is a plunge of 44.94%. The index is still down 38.97%.

Correction Over?

Zhou says the correction is "mostly" over?

Is that in terms of time or price or both? Regardless, how could Zhou possibly know?

A weekly chart provides a better perspective.

Shanghai Stock Index Weekly

Chartwise, the rise still has that bubble look.

And if the market takes off another thousand points or so, it will be back where it started.

Since the index is down about 2000 points now, I guess one could say "mostly" over, even if the target is a complete round trip.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

The 8 Most Likely People To Meet In A House Share [Infographic]

Posted: 06 Sep 2015 06:53 PM PDT

Here Gumtree presents the 8 most likely people to meet in a flat share.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via Gumtree

Seth's Blog : Taking it personally

Taking it personally

Yesterday, I visited a shop that only sells children's books. The store was empty and I asked the clerk, "Do you know where I can find Yertle the Turtle?"

He walked over to the computer, typed a few keystrokes and said, "I don't think we have it, do you know who the author is?"

Stunned silence.

[I found the section myself--they had three copies]

It's possible that he thinks his job is to be a clerk, to keep people from stealing things, to type letters into a computer and to read the results out loud as he stands at the cash register.

If that's the case, this store, like all stores staffed by clerks who are taught to be merely clerks, is doomed.

On the other hand, it's possible that his job is to take it personally, to be interested, to notice, to care, to add more value than a website can.

Who gets hired, how are they trained, where is the magic?

What happens when the boss cares enough to only hire, train and work with people who take it personally?