marți, 8 iulie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Paris to Tax Empty Offices at 20-40% of Rental Value; Price Crash On the Way

Posted: 08 Jul 2014 10:43 PM PDT

The ideas from France get nuttier and nuttier as time goes by. Via translation from Les Echos, please consider Paris Will Tax Empty Offices.
The Paris City Council approved Tuesday a tax on commercial vacant properties. The main objective according to city planners is to encourage the conversion of empty offices into housing, not to "create a new tax". The city plans to tax owners of vacant commercial premises at 20% of the rental value of the first year, 30% the second, 40% the third year, from 1 January 2015.

Paris has 18 million square meters of office space, of which  6-7% is vacant, according to the deputy in charge of Housing Ian Brossat. The mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, pledged during his campaign to get at least 200,000 square meters transformation of offices into housing during his term.
Price Crash On the Way

With this ruling, a price crash in office space lease terms as well as property values is a given. And if a mad dash for the exits ensues (as is highly likely), expect downward price pressures on rental values and condo prices as well.

Look on the bright side. Deflation is a good thing (but try telling any bureaucrats anywhere on the planet that story).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Immigration Reform Madness

Posted: 08 Jul 2014 10:52 AM PDT

Underage Immigrants Flood US From Central America

Over 52,000 illegal immigrant kids and 39,000 families have been apprehended this year alone, flooding into the US primarily from Central American countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras.

Obama Requests $3.7 Billion to Strengthen Borders

On Tuesday, president Obama asked Congress for $3.7 billion to deal with the issue.

Will Congress oblige? And by the way, whatever happened to the immigration reform bill that both parties seemed to want earlier this year?

Here's the answer (possibly to both questions):

Republicans declared immigration reform dead following the surprise defeat of house majority leader Eric Cantor to Tea Party candidate David Brat in the Republican primary (See Goldman Sachs President Inadvertently Explains Why Cantor Lost; Reflections on the Bush Years).

The Washington Post made the claim Make No Mistake: Immigration Reform Hurt Eric Cantor.

Following defeat of Cantor, Republicans decided it is better to sit back and criticize anything and everything the President does (or doesn't do), rather than propose anything themselves.

What Do Democrats Want?

Besides more money, what do Democrats want? That's a good question and it depends on whether you ask the president or activists. It also depends on when you ask the president.

Back in March, and under pressure from human rights activists, Obama asked for an Immigration-Enforcement Review purportedly to slow the deportation of immigrants.

"Advocates who met with the president said Obama told them he would build off a 2012 decision to defer the deportations of young people brought to the country illegally as children. Democrats and activists have called on him to dramatically expand that program, and Obama has ordered aides to review his legal options."

In March, Obama wanted to slow deportations. Yesterday, Obama stated Most Children Illegally Crossing the Border Alone Will Be Deported.
The White House signaled Monday that it expects to deport most of the unaccompanied minors entering the country illegally across the southern border, employing the strongest rhetoric to date to indicate that an influx of thousands of Central American migrants will not be tolerated.

The tougher tone came a day before Obama administration officials were expected to ask Congress to authorize new measures, including more than $2 billion in emergency funds, that would expedite the legal processing of the more than 52,000 children and 39,000 families apprehended this year.

Officials said the request is separate from statutory changes that the administration is also seeking to make it easier to deport children back to Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, where most of the influx has originated.
Super-Aggressive Stance

Today, the president upped the ante asking for $3.7 Billion in Emergency Border Control Funds.
Funds would be allocated to send more immigration judges to the southern border, build additional detention facilities and add border patrol agents. The move is aimed at more quickly deporting the tens of thousands of women and children who have entered the country illegally across the border, most of them in the Rio Grande Valley in Texas.

The administration's comprehensive strategy represents a "super-aggressive deterrence and enforcement strategy," a senior administration official told reporters, speaking on a conference call on condition of anonymity to provide more details.
What About the Republicans?

One might think that Republicans would generally be in favor of faster deportations, but the Washington Post notes ...
Under anti-human-trafficking laws signed by President George W. Bush in 2008, unaccompanied minors from non-contiguous countries are afforded greater legal protections than those who arrive illegally from Mexico or Canada. They are usually placed in the care of relatives, but many do not show up for their court hearings, which are routinely delayed for more than a year because of backlogs, officials said.
And the Democrat Activists?
Democrats have balked at rolling back those protections. Late last week, 225 organizations led by the American Civil Liberties Union sent a letter to Obama warning that eliminating those safeguards could ultimately jeopardize the children's lives.
Does Anyone Want Reform?

Curiously, Obama now wants tougher deportation measures than:

  1. Republicans who don't seem to know what they want, except of course whatever the President doesn't want, no matter what the issue.
  2. Democrats who don't want reform under guise of human rights issues

In general, Republicans prefer a campaign issue to solving a problem. But if a Republican were president, it would be equally safe to say Democrats would prefer a campaign issue to solving a problem.

All things considered, it is the best interest of the majority, with Republicans curiously siding with Democrat activists (but for completely different reasons), to do little or nothing. Don't expect much progress with this setup.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Boo And Buddy Make A Cute Couple

Posted: 08 Jul 2014 01:46 PM PDT

You know your dogs are cute when they make a better couple than most humans do.























The Coolest Custom Shift Knobs On The Planet

Posted: 08 Jul 2014 12:41 PM PDT

If you're going to shift then you need to do it in style.

















Lolita Richi Just Another Living Doll From Russia

Posted: 07 Jul 2014 08:58 PM PDT

Lolita Richi looks like a real life doll. We can't figure out if it's cute or creepy.


















Surgical Tools You Want To Stay Away From

Posted: 07 Jul 2014 08:38 PM PDT

Surgical tools have come a long way. We're willing to bet that if these instruments were still used today, no one would be willing to have surgery.

Amputation Knife (1700s): These sharp knives were used for amputations during the 18th century. They were typically curved so that surgeons could cut through the skin and muscle before the bone was cut with a saw.



Amputation Saw (1600s): Some surgeons had decorated, fancy amputation/bone saws such as this… but sometimes the extra details and carvings were a breeding ground for bacteria.



Arrow Remover (1500s): It is thought that this strange-looking tool was inserted into a wound in a contracted position. Then, the central shaft was used to grab an arrow. The blades were then expanded so that the arrow head wouldn't rip out the flesh on its way out.



Artificial Leech (1800s): Bloodletting was a popular treatment for a range of medical conditions. In 1840 the artificial leech was created and was used frequently in eye and ear surgery. The rotating blades would pierce the skin and the tube would suck up the patient's blood like a syringe.



Bullet Extractor (1500s): These extractors could reach bullets embedded deeply in a patient's body. Pulling out a bullet was sometimes risky and could result in more injury, but was common practice.



Cervical Dilator (1800s): This could be used to dilate a woman's cervix during labor. You could determine the amount of dilation with the measurement scale on the handle. Doctors stopped using these because they would often cause the cervix to tear.



Circumcision Knife (1770s): Ritual circumcision common, but tools like this sharp European knife from the 18th century make it seem like a brutal and archaic practice.



Ecraseur (1870s): This tool was used to remove hemorrhoids, uterine tumors or ovarian tumors by severing them. The chain was looped over the mass and tightened using the ratchet, stopping the circulation of blood to the area.



Hemorrhoid Forceps (1800s): To remove a hemorrhoid, these forceps were used to grasp it and apply pressure to stop the blood supply. As a result, the hemorrhoid would usually fall off.



Hernia Tool (1850s): This tool was used after hernias were corrected. It would be inserted into the body near the affected area and left there for a short amount of time. The tool would help encourage the formation of scar tissue, holding the hernia in.



Hirtz Compass (1915): This compass could used to be locate bullets within a body, using trajectory formulas, so that they could be removed with precision.



Hysterotome/Metrotome (1860s-90s): This hysterotome (or metrotome) was used to amputate the cervix during a hysterectomy.



Lithotome (1740s-1830s): In order to remove bladder stones, the bladder would need to be cut and doctors would use a lithotome to do it. The shaft contained a hidden blade that was inserted into the bladder and then released using a spring handle.



Mouth Gag (1880s-1910s): This wooden, screw-shaped mouth gag wasn't used to silence patients. It would be inserted into an unconscious patient's mouth to ensure their airway was open.



Scarificator (1910s-20s): Scarificators were used in bloodletting, to help draw out the blood. The spring-loaded blades in this device would cut the skin and then the device would be warmed to encourage blood flow.



Skull Saw (1830s-60s): To access the brain, this hand-cranked skull saw would be used to cut through the cranium.



Tobacco Smoke Enema (1750s-1810s): This kit would be used to infuse tobacco smoke into a patient's rectum. It was used primarily the resuscitation of drowning victims. The warmth of the smoke was thought to promote respiration.



Tonsil Guillotine (1860s): To remove tonsils, this tool was used. It's like a small guillotine. The blades would slice off the infected tonsils, but would often cause hemorrhaging and would leave tonsil remnants in the throat.



Trephine (1800s): The trephine basically was a hand-powered drill with a cylindrical blade, used to bore into the skull. The spike in the center would hold the instrument still while cutting.



Vaginal Speculum (1600s): Specula have been used for thousands of years by doctors, mainly so that they could examine a woman's vaginal area. This 17th century European example is ornate and intimidating, but is similar to the specula used today.