Central Perk: 22 ian. 2011

sâmbătă, 22 ianuarie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Budget Deficit Accounting Fraud and the Off-Balance-Sheet Student Loan Scam; Time to Scrap Entire Student Loan Program
"Imagine There's No T-Bonds - It's Easy If You Try"
Illinois Comptroller Says Stack of Unpaid Bills will Soon Double Despite Tax Increase

Budget Deficit Accounting Fraud and the Off-Balance-Sheet Student Loan Scam; Time to Scrap Entire Student Loan Program

Posted: 22 Jan 2011 02:04 PM PST

Inquiring minds have been wondering why the federal debt has been rising far faster than cumulative federal deficits. The short answer is off-balance-sheet scams like student loans and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "assets".

A complete explanation comes from WC Varones in his post Mystery solved: the difference between the deficit and the increase in national debt

The ex-Wall Street types at ZeroHedge chewed on this but couldn't come up with a good explanation. Karl Denninger called it crooked accounting, but couldn't pinpoint the fraud. B-Daddy at the Liberator Today noticed the same thing and didn't have an answer. Then I threw the question over to the academics at Econbrowser:
If it's such a simple accounting identity, would you please reconcile the $1.9 trillion and $1.65 trillion debt increases in FY 09 and FY 10 with the alleged deficits of $1.4 trillion and $1.3 trillion for the same fiscal years?

And before you answer that it's the Social Security Trust Fund, intragovernmental holdings increased by just $320 billion over the two years.

So where's the other $530 billion?
None of the academics among the bloggers and commenters at Econbrowser could answer the question, until Menzie Chinn found an expert who could.

I and many others suspected the answer was in some off-budget shenanigans like Fannie/Freddie, GMAC, etc. It turns out we were right in general but missed the biggest specific off-budget item: student loans. In table S-14 of this FY2011 OMB Mid-Session Review shown to me by Menzie, you'll see that the financial asset "Direct loan accounts" increased from $489 billion to $689 billion. And the prior Mid-Session Review (table S-15) shows that account at $196 billion at the end of FY08. So an increase in student loans accounted for $393 billion of the missing money over the two years.

There's also an increase of $100 billion in "Government-sponsored enterprise preferred stock" (Because Fannie and Freddie are assets to the Treasury, not liabilities, right! How are those preferred dividends working out for you, Timmy?). Together with the student loans and the change in intra-governmental holdings, that explains the vast majority of the difference between the reported two-year deficit and the actual increase in debt.

Student Loan Scam

Thanks WC, I had been wondering that myself.

Let's dig into Table S-14 (page 55 - PDF page 65) and look at projections for "Guaranteed Loan Accounts" under the general heading of "Debt Held by the Public Net of Financial Assets".

Using Data from the Table S-14 I made this chart of student loan projections.

Student Loan Projections 2009-2020 in $Billions

Time to Scrap Entire Student Loan Program

That debt is government (taxpayer) guaranteed. It is one of the primary things fueling the ever-rising cost of higher education. Amazingly students scream for more aid, and Obama want to give it to them, even though the debt destroys millions of lives in the process.

I propose the entire student loan program be scrapped. Much of that alleged "aid" goes straight to corrupt institutions like the University of Phoenix which charges exorbitant amounts for fluff degrees leaving students trapped as debt slaves for the rest of their lives.

For more on the University of Phoenix and other collegiate scams, please consider ...

Subprime Goes to College; Students Buried in Debt; Who is to Blame?

Debt for Diploma Schemes and the Cookie Monster Principle

University of California Campus Erupts In Riots; Student Loan Scam Drives Up Cost Of Education; Expect More Riots

Since student debt cannot be discharged in bankruptcy, and since universities get paid by the government, the universities (even legitimate ones) do not care how many lives they destroy.

The way to end the madness is to phase out all student loans over the next 3 years, immediately halting all new loans to freshmen. If colleges want to lend directly to students, nothing stops them. However, those debts should not be guaranteed by taxpayers.

The second thing we need to do is accredit far more online colleges. There is no reason legitimate courses cannot be offered over the internet at amazingly low prices.

These actions would quickly pop the bubble in higher education costs and make college affordable for nearly everyone without putting taxpayers at risk.

In the meantime, all off-balance-sheet debt needs to be properly accounted for in budget deficit projections, not hidden in places like Table S-14 where it took an army of people to figure out what was happening.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

"Imagine There's No T-Bonds - It's Easy If You Try"

Posted: 22 Jan 2011 11:28 AM PST

In "World Comes Together to Save the Euro" I posted a video Beatles' tribute to the idea "Come Together".

In response, reader "Spiral" wrote sent in some lyrics that he wrote. The first is to the tune of "Come Together" the second to the tune of John Lennon's "Imagine".

I heavily modified the version of "Imagine" he sent in, but the first is entirely his.

"Come Together" (buy bonds from me)

Here come the issue
You get 3 percent coupon
You get at deep discount
You got 30 yr window
You got debt as far as the eye can see
You don't get yo money back ain't nothin' be free
Come together right now
Buy from me
-------------------------------------
We sell to China
We sell mucho Ja-pan
We sell fo Russian Rub-ble
Hey this ain't no Bub-ble
There ain't no Asian Contagion you see
But this far in the hole ain't no place to be
Come together right now
Buy from me
-----------------------------------

We on a roller coaster
With some Wall Street cracker
He got all our dough & our futures blacker
He say one fo all & all fo ME
He will cheat you till you all the way down on yo knee
Come together right now
Buy from me.............

"Imagine"

Imagine no Bernanke
It's easy if you try.
No Fed-hell below us,
Bills not to the sky.

Imagine all the people,
With no debt to pay.

Imagine there's no T-bonds,
It isn't hard to do.
No Federal Reserve notes,
And no T-Bills too.

Imagine real money,
Spendable today

You may say I'm a dreamer,
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
For a solid gold backed buck

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Illinois Comptroller Says Stack of Unpaid Bills will Soon Double Despite Tax Increase

Posted: 22 Jan 2011 04:31 AM PST

Illinois is so far behind paying bills that the comptroller says unpaid bills will soon double despite tax increase.

Please consider Illinois Statehouse News Old overdue bills still an issue for Illinois

The state's stack of unpaid bills will soon double despite an income tax increase, according to state Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka.

The four year, temporary personal income tax hike of 67 percent was approved on the final day of the previous Legislature and recently signed by Gov. Pat Quinn. In part, the income tax hike is designed to help Illinois catch up on past-due bills and stop being delinquent on its payments.

"Our current backlog of bills stands at $6 billion, and the increased revenues will help address this backlog," said Kelly Kraft, spokeswoman for the governor's Office of Management and Budget.

Not quite, according to Topinka, who is in charge of Illinois' checkbook.

"By the time we get through four years from now and all of this and what they're able to spend, we will probably have a debt of $12 billion of unpaid bills that have yet to be dealt with," the Riverside Republican said.

Topinka said her office is now working on getting last August's bills paid.

Shortly after the income tax increase passed the state House of Representatives, House Republican Leader Tom Cross said his caucus would be willing to consider voting for borrowing, but not without some concessions.

"We'll look at it to pay our vendors, but we're going to look at it a different way. It might be a smaller amount, we might say you've got to cut somewhere else, we might say you have to look at (workers' compensation), I don't know what else we might say," Cross said.

For her part, Topinka has not decided one way or another on the borrowing plan.

"It will help to some extent, in terms of paying the bills. I still want to look at that before we sign off on it and see exactly where it goes. I want to read that bill and see exactly what it does. I've signed off on borrowing when I was (state) treasure, but not all the time," she said.

If Republicans want concessions, I have one in mind: Make Illinois a right to work state, killing all prevailing wage laws along with it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Your Weekly Address: “We Can Out-Compete Any Other Nation”

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, Jan. 22, 2011

Your Weekly Address: “We Can Out-Compete Any Other Nation”

President Obama discusses the steps he is taking to make America competitive in the short and long terms, and why he chose GE CEO Jeff Immelt to head up the new Council on Jobs and Competitiveness.

Watch the video.

Weekly Wrap Up

A quick look at the week of January 17, 2011:

Quote: “Dr. King obviously had a dream of justice and equality in our society, but he also had a dream of service, that you could be a drum major for service, that you could lead by giving back to our communities.” Read the Post. Watch the video.

State of the Union: On Tuesday, January 25, at 9 p.m. EST, President Obama will deliver the State of the Union address at the U.S. Capitol. Find out how you can get involved in the State of the Union and ask your questions of President Obama and senior Administration officials.

China State Visit: At the Arrival Ceremony for the China State Visit, President Obama welcomes President Hu of China and calls for more productive cooperation between the two nations. Watch the video.

West Wing Week: A Rather Large Painting: The President welcomes the presidents of China and Pakistan, serves the D.C. community in observance of Martin Luther King Day and speaks in remembrance of Ambassador Richard Holbrooke and President John F. Kennedy. Watch the video.

Notable Numbers: 86 and 68. In honor of President Hu's State Visit, President Obama presented the Chinese leader with a painting on canvas measuring 86 inches wide and 68 inches high – 8 and 6 are lucky numbers that coincide with China’s country code 86. See the paining.

Voices of Health Reform: Americans from across the country share their stories on how they are already benefiting from the health reform law, the Affordable Care Act. Listen to their stories.

The Cost of Repealing Health Reform: Repeal would be bad for business, bad for the economy, and bad for families’ bank accounts. Get the break down on the latest White House White Board.

The Most Creative and Innovative Businesses in the World: The President announced that GE Chairman and CEO Jeffrey Immelt will join his team of economic advisors as the head of the new White House Council on Jobs and Competitiveness - a board to get Americans back to work and strengthen our economy. Watch the video.

Get Updates

Stay Connected

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House
Unsubscribe e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com | Privacy Policy
Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

SEOptimise

30 Ways to Use Social Media for Business People

Posted: 21 Jan 2011 08:36 AM PST

*
While we Web professionals may assume that virtually everybody is using social media these days it’s far from the truth. People use social media but businesses don’t. A recent study shows that 94% of businesses actually do not use social media even for the most obvious task it’s good for: Getting feedback. That’s akin to not using cars, phones or electricity in the first half of the 20th century.

So of course another study shows that those businesses not using social media fail to compete.

Also getting feedback from your customers is a crucial benefit but it’s just the most obvious and must have use case for social media. Thus I compiled a list of 30 ways to use social media for business people.

Get feedback: There is even software for that like Uservoice, GetSatisfaction or OpenMind. Or simply listen to what people say on Facebook, Twitter, blogs and forums. There are also tools for that.
Create demand: Better than simply reacting is proactively informing about upcoming products, features or services. This way the demand is there before the actual product arrives. Apple is doing it all the time.
Offer discounts: Once you have an account on Facebook or Twitter or even before you gain a significant following the best thing you can do is offering discounts. People will follow you then and they also will buy. Dell has been selling computers on Twitter for years.
Get attention: Sounds simple doesn’t it? Say something of importance and then you migt get attention. Why? Well, on the Web not money is the most valuable good, it’s attention. It can be turned into money but you earn more money in the long term by trying to get attention repeatedly.
Spread the word: Tell the people about you and your business once you have established a connection with your following by getting attention over and over again and again. Announce changes on your blog, promote your next appearance at a conference or like mentioned above present your new product.
Build brand loyalty: Brand loyalty is self-explanatory isn’t it? People like your brand and then buy from it in the future again. How do you make them loyal customers? Either by providing formidable goods and services or you provide something for free, be it information or community.
Establish a community: The Web is a great place for creating communities. Why? People from all over the world who are obsessed about the same weird hobby can virtually meet with other like-minded individuals. You can establish a community of fans of your brand right there on your blog, feedback site or Facebook group.
Answer questions: People as questions all the time on the Web. That’s why start ups like Quora try to be next big thing while Yahoo Answers had more traffic that Twitter up to 2010. replay and answer questions, be helpful, whether you are dealing with your won products and services or the niche by and large.
Provide support: sometimes people have more than questions. They are annoyed, angry or even desperate. Your product or service may have caused that suffering. A simple tweet can help. Just this week I tried to install open source analytics Piwik and failed miserably. I voiced it on Twitter and the official Piwik account replied with a very simple solution. It took them one short look at my installation to find out what’s wrong.
Get clients: Of course you get clients or customers this way as well. When Yahoo announced that Delicious will be discontinued i and many other were scrambling to find an alternative to rescue their bookmarks. I got contacted by at least one other company.
Improve CRM: Does your company use customer relationship management tools like Salesforce? Well, many CRM tools already support CRM features to manage relationships beyond customers or rather before they become customers. Even simple Twitter tools like CoTweet provide CRM features. You can view past conversation with each Twitter user you interact with.
Empower staff: In Germany we have a drugstore chain infamous for being stingy. Their shops are small, look shabby and they don’t even have a phone to prevent staff for private conversations. Thus these drugstores get robbed regularly as staff can’t even call the police. Likewise many companies forbid Facebook, Twitter etc. on the job and isolate their workforce. other companies empower their staff and win customers or clients on social media.
Monitor trends: You can find out more on social media than just who is talking or complaining about you. Many tools allow to watch trends unfold. You determine what’s cool and where the demand is almost instantly by scanning Facebook and Twitter with simple tools like Topsy.
Identify influencers: Topsy also allows you to find out who actually tweets about your business. You can check how many clicks these people brought to your site via bit.ly or Twitter’s own stats. Indeed Topsy even marks important users “influential” or “highly influential” based on their activity.
Reach out: Once you know who likes you you can reach out to these people. blogger outreach is even an established industry term by now. Contact them, simply express your gratitude, invite them to your next product presentation or sen them your products for testing purposes.
Discuss features: Feedback is great but as long as it’s a monologue by disgruntled users complaining about you it isn’t very helpful. Often users can already suggest solutions. O you can try to explain how you’d like to change your product or service. A discussion will often yield far better results than just simple feedback.
Facilitate testing: social sites are not only for talking aka conversation. Some sites like Clue e.g. offer user testing as a free service. Usability testing is not only a task for experts you always need real people do the testing as well. Approach them on social media and simply ask to perform a short test.
Debunk myths: People are often complaining about you in public on social media in an exaggerated way. They may misunderstand your product or go way over board out of anger. These people will make look like the worst hotel in history or the most expensive car dealer in the country. Just counter these allegations with numbers, customer feedback etc. Often people complain about your brand even without trying it just beacuse someone else said “it sucks”.
Market offerings: Yes, indeed, you can market your offerings as well. It’s not like marketing elsewhere though. You don’t appear on the social media scene and start shouting about you and your offers. All the actions mentioned above and below are part of the marketing. People like you when you do all of or at least part of it right and then nobody will mad at you for just mentioning your offer even without it being new or a bargain.
Forge relationships: Did you know that people don’t want to talk with companies, they want to talk with people. So they really want to have a relationship with you. They want to know who you are, where you live and that you are a human being. People don’t want to talk to anonymous call canter agents they will never again talk to because there a hundred more any each time you get another one randomly. social media users want to follow a CEO, a public figure, a visible representative. Rad Fishkin, Matt Cutts and Lee Odden are perfect examples of this in the SEO industry.
Develop authority: A real life person telling the truth, being helpful and sharing valuable information more than once is on her or his way to develop authority. Isn’t it logical? So having a recognizable representative over time can make your company exec or spokesperson become an industry authority important beyond the position s/he has in your company.
Build links: That’s funny, I almost forgot that! As this here is an SEO blog: You can get links on social media and even likes and tweets counts as votes on search engines these days. So building links on social media is a wonderful side effect. You don’t want to submit your site to “10000 social bookmarking sites”. That’s spam. I mean building links doing all of the above.
Raise funds: Your business model doesn’t have to be selling something. Maybe you don’t even have a product or you work for an NGO. Social media is an excellent fundraising tool. There are even sites that automate that process and promote your projects. It’s called crowdfunding: Kickstarter is quite well known by now but only open to hip elite projects. Other sites like Kapipal do not have such high hurdles. Also there is P2P credit where real people can lend you money for your business idea.
Get publicity: What’s the difference between getting attention, spreading the word (I mentioned both above) and getting publicity? Well social media is used no only by bloggers but also by old school journalists. Social media press releases and giving away the news to bloggers can result in publicity beyond the social media sphere itself.
Watch the competition: In case you are not on social media your competition probably already is. You can watch their steps and try to learn or mimic them. As long as they excel on social media you have to do that. Than you can just watch them like you watch your overall industry and mentions of your brand. Google Alerts is your first love to do it but plenty of other tools assist you here.
Find talent: I don’t need or want a job, I value my freedom. A few years ago I still was open to job offers but nonetheless I get headhunters who are contacting me on LinkedIn and Xing. I got my writing gig here on SEOptimise via Twitter back in 2007. So looking for talent is one of the more evident ways to use social media sites.
Organize: Do you know Anonymous? It’s a group of Internet activists who are really a pain in the back of the corrupt and powerful these days. You might not condone their methods or goals but their mode of organization is simple, it’s social media. You can organize your workforce all over the planet using social media.
Create value: These days value is often ephemeral. Stocks and money are often virtual an traded at the speed of light. Real value as in gold or made of steel, brick and mortar are rare. Assets are often data and knowledge. It’s very easy to create value by sharing and thus multiplying information. Resources lists I often compile on SEOptimise are an example close to home.
Locate markets: Do you know the idiom “big in Japan”? It refers to artists or musicians who have been overlooked in the US, UK or Europe but who are hugely popular in Japan. Likewise some products and services flop at home but are all the rage elsewhere. On social media you have people from all over the world listening. When your market is crowd you can discover another somewhere else.
Meet peers: Watching your competition is not the best thing to deal with other in your niche or industry. They are your peers. Of course you compete with them a bit but at the end of the day hooking up with them will be more beneficial to you and them that solely competing. In the SEO industry we share our knowledge all the time. I haven’t seen anybody going bankrupt beacuse of that.

Do you want more? this list could easily go on forever. Add your ideas in the comment section. The best ones will be added to the list. After all we’re social, aren’t we?

* Image by Leo Seta.

Seth's Blog : Treat different customers differently

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Treat different customers differently

This is difficult if you also insist on treating every customer the same. Or treating every customer the best, which is a better way to describe a similar idea.

No, the only way you can treat different customers differently is if you understand that their values (and their value to you) vary. It's easier than ever to discern and test these values, and you do everyone a service when you differentiate.