vineri, 8 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Japan Posts Second Consecutive Current Account Deficit; 2012 Account Surplus Lowest on Record

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 08:25 AM PST

Bloomberg reports Japan Posts Back-to-Back Current-Account Deficit in December.
Japan posted back-to-back monthly current-account deficits for the first time since 1981, highlighting challenges for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's campaign to revive the economy.

The shortfall in the widest measure of the nation's trade was 264.1 billion yen ($2.8 billion) in December, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a deficit of 144.2 billion yen.

Weakness in global demand, a spat with China and increased energy imports because of nuclear plant shutdowns are weighing on the world's third-biggest economy as Abe pushes the Bank of Japan to end deflation and spur growth.

China Dispute

Exports to China in 2012 fell 10.8 percent from 2011, as slower Chinese growth and a territorial dispute affected a merchandise trade relationship worth 26.5 trillion yen in 2012, according to ministry data.

BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said Feb. 6 he would step down on March 19, almost three weeks before the end of his term, accelerating a leadership transition that may boost Abe's campaign for aggressive easing.
Record Low Surplus for 2012

Reuters reports Record low current account surplus shows Japan's challenges
Japan posted its smallest annual current account surplus on record in 2012 as exports weakened and energy imports grew, a signal to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that economic revival needs more than just a weaker yen and extra spending.

The current account surplus is likely to continue shrinking as energy imports rise due to the closure of nuclear power plants and as Japanese exporters lose out to more competitive Asian rivals, economists say.

Japan's current account surplus was 4.7 trillion yen ($50.4 billion) in 2012, Ministry of Finance data showed, a figure that seems impressive. But it was less than half the surplus recorded a year earlier and the smallest since 1985, when Japan started compiling comparable data.

The deterioration was most marked at the end of the year, with Japan posting consecutive monthly deficits for the first time as the December shortfall hit 264.1 billion yen, more than 80 percent bigger than the median forecast in a Reuters poll.

"Energy imports and higher energy costs are structural factors that will cause the current account surplus to decline further," said Hiroshi Miyazaki, chief economist at Shinkin Asset Management Co.

"Currency moves can only go so far in improving corporate competitiveness. There are other areas like corporate taxes or incentives for business investment where Japan is lagging."

Data last month showed Japan posted a record trade deficit of 6.9 trillion yen in 2012, as exports fell in annual terms through the second half of the year.

The theory is that a weaker yen will reignite the export engine in coming months, but that assumes there will be demand -- something Japan's once-dominant electronic makers are struggling with.
As I have said, this is a case of be careful of what you wish, because you may get it. Inflation is not going to do Japan any good at all in my estimation. Japan's demographics and energy imports make the situation much worse.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Funny Wedding Photos

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 07:18 PM PST

Selection of funny wedding moments.























































































































Preventing Expensive Repairs through Regular Maintenance [Infographic]

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 06:58 PM PST

No one wants to be faced with expensive vehicle repairs. There are actually ways to increase the likelihood that your car will not break down, and considering the high cost of some of the repairs shown below, it only makes sense to follow these tips. The number one way to prevent expensive repairs is to keep up on regular car maintenance, whether your vehicle is one year old or if it is ten years old.

Click on Image to Enlarge.
Via: Arrigo Dodge Chrysler Jeep Dealers West Palm Beach FL

The Worst Places to Drive [Infographic]

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 12:45 PM PST

Most of us drive every day, but don't really think about how truly dangerous it really is. This infographic presented by TraderQuote takes a look at some of the most dangerous roads and areas to drive around the world. Check it out below to learn more.

Click on Image to Enlarge. The Worst Places To Drive
Via TraderQuote

Men vs. Women

Posted: 07 Feb 2013 10:03 PM PST

Hilarious Men vs Women pictures. So true.





































































10 Spectacularly Misspelled T-Shirts

Posted: 07 Feb 2013 08:38 PM PST

If only someone had double-checked these t-shirts before they went to print. Or, in some cases, before someone took them off a hangar, put them on and wore them out in public…




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