marți, 20 ianuarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Obama Howls at the Moon

Posted: 20 Jan 2015 10:11 PM PST

During the last dozen years or so, the only State of the Union Addresses I failed to watch were because I was on the road. On Tuesday, I purposely missed one.

Why Bother?

We all knew in advance what Obama would say. He leaked it out in pieces long in advance. That took most of the drama out of things right up front.

Icing on the #WhoCares cake is the answer to this question: How could it possibly matter?

Lamest of Lame Ducks

President Obama is the lamest of lame ducks. His ideas are headed for the ash heap of history.

  1. Raise taxes: Dead on arrival
  2. Free Education: Dead on arrival
  3. Environment fearmongering: Dead on arrival

We all knew those going in. The only thing we did not know was how blatant the lies would be.

Lie of the Day
 
To find the lies of the day, I just finished reading Obama's State of The Union Address.


The primary lie was easy to spot. In case you missed it, here it is: "In two weeks, I will send this Congress a budget filled with ideas that are practical, not partisan. And in the months ahead, I'll crisscross the country making a case for those ideas."

No doubt Obama will crisscross the country. That can be believed.

The lie is in regards to "ideas that are practical, not partisan". Supposedly taxes on the wealthy, free education, and cutting carbon pollution are "practical, not partisan".

That's two lies actually. All three proposals are all partisan, and not a single one of them is practical.

I did not disagree with everything Obama said. For example, I do think we should talk with Cuba and Iran. Beyond that, there is little to like and much to dislike.

Free Trade is Fair Trade

I certainly would not give the president "trade promotion authority to protect American workers, with strong new trade deals from Asia to Europe that aren't just free, but fair."

Instead, I would simply propose cutting all tariffs and be done with it, regardless of what any other nation does. Free trade is fair trade. And on that score many Republicans are worse than the president.

Senator Rand Paul offered this response.

Rand Paul Response
Higher taxes, more spending, and bigger government.

President Obama just revealed that is what he has in store for Americans in 2015.

But you and millions of your fellow Americans sent a loud and clear message to President Obama in November.

It's time to lower taxes, not raise them. It's time to reduce spending, not increase it. It's time to shrink government, not grow it.

I'm ready to answer the call and lead the fight for our conservative principles.

Tonight, I responded to President Obama's State of the Union address by outlining my vision for our great nation. Please take a moment and watch the video below.
Rand Paul Video




Link if video does not play: Rand Paul Responds to Obama's State of the Union Address.

President Obama howled at the moon with partisan, impractical proposals nthat are dead on arrival in Congress.

Looking for nonpartisan, practical ideas? Please play the above video.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Rebels Advance: Near Collapse of Ukraine Positions Near Lugansk; The Big One

Posted: 20 Jan 2015 05:41 PM PST

In Graves Waiting For Bodies: Major War Escalation in Ukraine; In 5 Weeks Ukraine Out of Money I stated ...

Reader Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and read Ukrainian informs me that "The battle for the Donetsk airport is over. The rebels expelled Ukraine's most elite units from their last redoubts in the new terminal building."

That statement was immediately challenged. For example, Reuters reported Sunday afternoon that Ukrainian troops retake most of Donetsk airport from rebels.

Then that statement was challenged. Yahoo!News reported Ukraine, Rebels Both Claim to Control Donetsk Airport.

Meanwhile Fox News reported Ukraine Rebels Claim They Control Donetsk Airport After Heavy Fighting.

First Casualty of War

As they say, the first casualty of war is the truth. Disinformation is everywhere. So whom to believe?

I place faith in reports I get from reader Jacob Dreisin, Colonel Cassad, and others who have been right far more often than mainstream media. Colonel Cassad has called this better than Jane's Defense.

See my August 26, report Jane's Defense vs. Colonel Cassad: Someone Seriously Wrong
in which Jane's Defense wrote "Ukrainian Military Moves to Endgame".

Brief synopsis: Jane was seriously wrong.

Not everything Dreisin says is 100% accurate. But the same can be said about me. Until proven otherwise, I trust my sources, and they have some significant news.

Ukraine Airport Synopsis

Most of my reports come from Dreizin, so let's tune in. Dreisin writes ...
Ukrainian forces have been cleared from every single building and built-up area within the airport complex. They may be still holding on to some of the open area at the edges. Reports of Kiev being in control of the airport is total spin. U.S. media passes along whatever Kiev's mouthpieces say.

The hero defenders of the airport, known as "cyborgs" in the Ukrainian press for their supposedly superhuman characteristics, were all either killed or retreated several days ago from the new terminal building.

All Ukrainian counterattacks have failed with heavy losses. The rebels have also largely taken the town of Peski north of the airport. This is (was) a major base for Ukrainian artillery hitting Donetsk. I will let you know when the entire town is fully under control of the rebels.

The rebels are also reportedly preparing to storm the town of Adveevka, near the airport. It's another major artillery base.
May Be "The Big One"

The above is from yesterday. Today Jacob says ...
Rebel chatter reports near-collapse of Ukrainian positions all along the front north/northwest of Lugansk city. This may be the big one that we've anticipated. It is more slow-motion, step-by-step than what happened in August, but it's happening nonetheless.

But first...

Another (minor) Ukrainian counterattack against the airport grounds failed today. There is footage available of some of the dead and prisoners. Two of the prisoners claimed on camera that they were told that the new terminal building was in Ukrainian hands, and that they were initially just sent to pick up wounded. Then after they set out, they were told of their real mission. Amazing, just amazing.

Back to the rebel advance...

Rebel forces are making considerable progress northeast of Pervomaisk (northwest of Lugansk) in a possible armored breakthrough to Lisichansk far to the north, which they abandoned in early August.

Rebels are also moving from the Pervomaisk direction northeast to Krymskoe. Large Ukrainian forces in the area are at risk of being surrounded. Will keep you posted.

Also, fighting is still ongoing in Peski north of the airport. Ukrainians have taken heavy losses there and it's not looking good for them.
Assault on Lisichansk and Severodonetsk

Moments ago I asked Jacob if I transcribed Forced Conscription: Ukraine to Mobilize 200,000 Armed Forces properly. He responded "yes". He also added ...
A very reliable rebel source claims Kiev expects an assault against Lisichansk and Severodonetsk imminently. This would be an advance by the rebels of something like 30-40 kilometers through many thousands of Ukrainian forces. Importantly, they would have to cover their flanks which probably means advancing northeast all the way from Krymskoe to the Russian border.

This is potentially huge. Also there is much talk of an imminent move against Mariupol, though this could be a feint for a dash further west, who knows.
This All Ties In

This all ties in with Ukraine to Mobilize 200,000 Armed Forces; Hyperinflation on the Way?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Forced Conscription: Ukraine to Mobilize 200,000 Armed Forces; Hyperinflation on the Way?

Posted: 20 Jan 2015 02:24 PM PST

The war in Ukraine is going so well for Kiev that .... Ukraine will force 200,000 more into the army.
According to military prosecutor Anatoly Matios, there will be three waves of mobilization in 2015. The overall plan is to call 200,000 Ukrainians into military service.

Ukraine will begin on January 20, 2015 with 50,000 reservists and conscripts. There will be mandatory training at training centers. The next wave of fighters will be directed to the ATO (Anti-Terrorist Operation) Zone until March 2015.

"Azov" and "Kiev" fighters will also join ATO on a rotation basis.
Thoughts From Europe

Reader Steven writes...
Hello Mish

The 50,000-100,000 reserve call-up is for ATO (Anti-Terrorist Operations), what they call the war in eastern Ukraine. These future soldiers will generally be from 25-60 years old.

Call-ups impact nearly every family in Ukraine. My girlfriend's son-in-law is a reserve officer. Her ex-husband is a retired officer who has already been called.

Interestingly, he is absolutely pro-Russian, but accepts his position as an artillery trainer where he personally does not shoot at the "enemy" to keep his pension.

Her son, a 19-year-old who recently dropped out of school, is suddenly eligible for the special call-up beginning today. Her best friend's son, mid 30's, came to Prague illegally to escape this "draft". He was sitting in my flat a couple days ago. He used to work in Poland, but the Poles have dramatically tightened up to avoid an onslaught of Ukrainian workers.

Steven
Hyperinflation on the Way?

Ukraine is down to five weeks of currency reserves. The only way to pay these soldiers is to print Hryvnia, constantly dwindling in value.



Seeds Sown

The Hryvnia is down 48% vs. the US dollar since the end of 2013 (nearly 50% in just over a year). That is not hyperinflation material, but the seeds are sown.

Even if some sort of bailout does come, if Ukraine blows it all on war (which sure seems to be the pledge), the decline in the Hryvnia is far from over.

And if Ukraine does not get another bailout, the Hryvnia is toast. Pension promises will be worthless.

For what?

Smart Decisions

Those fleeing Ukraine for Prague or elsewhere in Europe are the smart ones.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Bloomberg Editorial Board Loses Mind

Posted: 20 Jan 2015 12:25 PM PST

A Bloomberg  editorial on what the ECB needs to do is rather amusing. The article headline, albeit true in and of itself, contradicts the body of the article. Let's take a look.

ECB Cannot Save Europe

The Bloomberg editorial board says Not Even Mario Draghi Can Save Europe Now.

I certainly agree with that title. Had that been the entire article in and of itself, I would have said "the Bloomberg editorial board gets it".

Unfortunately, the editors didn't stop with the headline. Instead the editors proposed "The ECB needs to surprise financial markets with a bigger-than-expected announcement."

It gets better ...

The board says Draghi should go for outright shock and awe. .... He could say that monetary policy, as he understands it, includes the option of "helicopter money" -- and that the bank would shortly begin sending out checks to every EU citizen.

Such a scheme would be illegal of course. But hey, that's no problem.

Legal or not, helicopter money would be a frontal repudiation of the monetary conservatism that Germany's government and others have sought to impose on the bank.

Not even Draghi can save Europe, but let's do illegal things anyway to prove it. Wow.

Eurozone Structural Problems

The problems in Europe are insurmountable, and well understood by many.

  • No fiscal union
  • Wildly differing social agendas of member states
  • Wide variances in productivity
  • Wage discrepancies
  • Retirement benefit discrepancies
  • One size fits all monetary policy
  • To make treaty changes every eurozone country must agree
  • Target2 imbalances

What the hell good would even €5 trillion in QE do to fix those?

What good would it do if the ECB bought every bond from every country and pushed rates to zero across the board? How would it fix any structural problem?

More QE Will Not Help the World, says Mervyn King

I seldom agree with central bankers, especially when they hold that position. On occasion, however, once outside their official role, they regain some sense of sanity.

For example, More QE will not help the world, says Mervyn King.
More monetary stimulus will not help the world economy return to strong growth, former Bank of England governor Mervyn King said, days before the European Central Bank is expected to decide whether to embark on a massive bond-buying programme.

"We have had the biggest monetary stimulus that the world must have ever seen, and we still have not solved the problem of weak demand. The idea that monetary stimulus after six years ... is the answer doesn't seem (right) to me," he added.
Pettis, Jakobsen Chime In

Saxo Bank chief economist Steen Jakobsen made the claim the other day that QE was actually counterproductive.

Here is Steen's actual statement: "Lower Interest Rates May Reduce Consumption".

That may sound shocking, but his rationale is sound. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets and Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management both agreed.

Grand Experiment Failure

I wrote Steen's theory in Grand Experiment Failure; Bankers Prefer Bubbles; Europe is not USA; Final Epitaph, a rebuttal to Bloomberg author Barry Ritholtz, also in favor of massive QE.

Instead of repeating myself again, I simply ask the editorial board and Ritholtz to "Read, Then Think!"

Deflation fighting efforts ruined Japan, but somehow deflation fighting is supposed to cure Europe?! It makes no sense. Nonetheless, people believe central bank parroting instead of thinking on their own.

Deflation Fighting Silliness

Let's once again review my Challenge to Keynesians "Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit"

I also strongly suggest the editorial board review Deflationary Spiral Nonsense; Keynesian Theory vs. Practice; Eurozone Policymakers Concerned About Falling Prices.

For a third take on the insanity of fighting consumer price deflation, please see Deflation Bonanza! (And the Fool's Mission to Stop It).

Problem is Debt

The problem with the global economy in general is debt. You cannot cure a debt-deflation problem via attempts to force more debt into the system. It is axiomatic the cure cannot be the same as the disease.

Bloomberg, please go back to the drawing board.

Next Time .... Think!



Link if video does not play: The Blues Brothers - Aretha Franklin.

The ECB, central bankers in general, the Bloomberg editorial board,  Monetarists,  and Keynesians, all need to step back and "Think!" about what they are trying to do (and why it cannot possibly work).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Deflation Bonanza! (And the Fool's Mission to Stop It)

Posted: 20 Jan 2015 09:33 AM PST

Of all the widely believed but patently false economic beliefs is the absurd notion that falling consumer prices are bad for the economy and something must be done about them.

The recent move in the Swiss franc puts a spotlight on the issue. For example, on Sunday, in Swiss Peg Removal: Did Anyone Win? I commented ...
One widely recognized "big loser" is the tourism industry. For sure, hotel prices in Switzerland rose as much as 40% overnight compared to prices elsewhere.

But Swiss grocery shoppers buying food imports from France, Spain, and the rest of Europe benefit mightily.

Which of those is more important? I suggest the benefit to Swiss shoppers is more important, at least in the grand scheme of things. Moreover, those consumers will have more money to spend on other things ... like restaurants, travel and hotels.
Shopping Bonanza!

On Monday came a Wall Street Journal story that exactly matched my prediction: Soaring Franc Creates Bonanza in Swiss Stores.
The soaring Swiss franc that caused howls in financial markets is creating a bonanza in stores, where shoppers are suddenly getting discounts on everything from vegetables to party dresses.

On Monday, Basel-based Coop said it was cutting prices on more than 200 types of fruit and vegetables imported from the European Union. The supermarket chain, Switzerland's second-largest retailer behind Migros, said further price cuts for imported fish, poultry and cheese were also in the works.

Coop isn't the only retailer going into bargain mode. Furniture chains, travel agencies and fashion companies are among the retailers slashing prices to rope in shoppers.

"For us housewives, this is welcome news for our daily shopping," said Anita Mueller, who was perusing sales on Banhofstrasse, Zurich's main thoroughfare, on Monday morning.

Even luxury stores are passing on the savings. The window of Grieder & Cie., a high-end department store in Zurich's shopping district, bore a message informing shoppers their money would go further.

"Due to the sudden rise of the Swiss franc against the euro and to give us time to adjust our prices to the move, we are now offering a 20% discount on all of our non-reduced goods for an indefinite time," the message read.

Swiss consumers are also taking advantage of their improved buying power by crossing into Germany. BVB, the transportation authority in Basel, added more trams to the border town of Weil am Rhein to accommodate the rush of Swiss bargain hunters looking to take advantage of their muscular Swiss francs.

TUI Suisse, one of Switzerland's biggest tour operators, cut prices by 15% on vacation packages to sunny destinations around Mediterranean Sea. Tours of Greece, Spain, Turkey, Italy and Portugal are all included in the sale, which is dubbed the "euro discount." TUI Suisse, which has branches in many shopping malls across Switzerland, is also lowering prices on trips to Morocco and Egypt for departures through the summer.
Don't Cry For Exporter Yet

In Swiss Peg Removal: Did Anyone Win? I also commented ...

"Conventional wisdom is that Swiss exporters will be crucified and importers will benefit. Certainly there is an initial shock. But long-term, look at it this way: The price of materials used in exports (metals in watches and Swiss-made machinery) will get cheaper. ...

So, don't cry for exporters just yet.

US Dollar vs. Swiss Franc



Last Thursday, the value of the Swiss Franc related to the US dollar soared as much as 28 percent. About half of that has been recovered.

Swiss exporters will find they can import commodities about 14% cheaper than early last week. They do lose out current inventories of goods, but this is not the widely-believed export disaster story except for the initial stock market carnage.

Guess What?

Shoppers are shopping! They are even booking extra trains to Germany to do so. Fancy that! Other travel is up as well. Gee who coulda thunk?

The widespread belief is that when prices fall, shoppers will wait and wait and wait. I Have been mocking that view for years.

Economic Challenge to Keynesians

Let's once again review my Challenge to Keynesians "Prove Rising Prices Provide an Overall Economic Benefit"
Challenge to Keynesians

I challenge Keynesians and Monetarists to prove rising prices provide an overall economic benefit.

Sure, those with first access to money benefit (the banks, the already wealthy, and government bodies via taxation). But that is at the expense of everyone else.

The absurd underlying notion behind the battle cry for inflation is that if prices fall people will stop buying things and the economy will collapse.

Reality Check Questions

  • If price of food drops will people stop eating?
  • If the price of gasoline drops will people stop driving?
  • If price of airline tickets drop will people stop flying?
  • If the handle on your frying pan falls off or your blow-dryer breaks, will you delay making another purchase because you can get it cheaper next month?
  • If computers, printers, TVs, and other electronic devices will be cheaper next year, then cheaper again the following year, will people delay purchasing electronic devices as long as prices decline?
  • If your coat is worn out, are you inclined to wait another year if there are discounts now, but you expect even bigger discounts a year from now?
  • Will people delay medical procedures in expectation of falling prices?
  • If deflation theory is accurate, why are there huge lines at stores when prices drop the most?

Bonus Question

If falling prices stop people from buying things, how are any computers, flat screen TVs, monitors, etc., ever sold, in light of the fact that quality improves and prices decline every year?
Krugmanites Cheer Abenomics

The idea that falling consumer prices will lead to a downward spiral is absurd. Everyone in Japan would have died long ago if that was true.

Instead of accepting the gift of falling prices (a clear benefit to consumers), Japan fought it every step of the way with the Krugmanites cheering every step of the way.

Japan Deflation Fighting Results

  • Japan has gone from being the largest creditor nation in the world to being the largest debtor nation in the world
  • Japan now has the largest debt-to-GDP ratio of any developed country, roughly 250% of GDP.
  • Japan has totally and completely squandered every bit of its savings.
  • Keynesians cheered every step of the way, amazingly concluding, Japan failed because it did not spend enough!

Keynesian Theory vs. Practice

Keynesian theory says consumers will delay purchases if prices are falling. In practice, all things being equal, it's the opposite.

If consumers think prices are too high, they will wait for bargains. It happens every year at Christmas and all year long on discretionary items not in immediate need.

Central Banking's Grand Experiment

In spite of the above, and ignoring the total failure of both Monetarism and Keynesianism in Japan for decades, on January 15, Bloomberg author Barry Ritholtz came out in praise of Central Banking's Grand Experiment.

I took the other side of the debate in Grand Experiment Failure; Bankers Prefer Bubbles; Europe is not USA; Final Epitaph.

In praise of the Fed (and with a pointed finger at the ECB), Ritholtz proposed this tombstone epitaph for Bernanke "At least we tried".

I responded ...
And here's the irony: "At least we tried [to create inflation]" is not only the essence of the rising income inequality problem that Fed Chair Janet Yellen (and countless others) moan about, it's also the very essence of the ever-increasing debt problem the world faces.

Final Epitaph

Ritholtz offered his epitaph. Here's mine. It's in regards to today's central bankers in general, written from the perspective of future historians.

"These fools thought the world needed 2% inflation, thought they could end the business cycle and recessions, and thought they could steer the global economy like a car on a curvy, mountainous roadway. The actual result was a series of economic bubbles of increasing magnitude, culminating with the currency crises of [date]."

Addendum:

Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management pinged me with this interesting thought: "Academic research indicates that QE in the US contracted rather than expanded economic activity, just as it did in Japan. Thus, Steen could have made the even stronger case that since it didn't work in the US or Japan, it will not work in for the ECB."

To that I will add, I am positive Lacy is correct. Any alleged economic benefit of QE was a monetary illusion coupled with enormous "temporarily" hidden costs.


  1. Bubbles in equities and junk bonds
  2. Expansion of wealth inequality
  3. Massive increase in debt 100% guaranteed to slow future growth

Contrary to widespread popular belief, constant meddling in free markets never provides long-term economic benefits.
Asset Deflation vs. Consumer Price Deflation

Central Bankers to the Rescue - Not.

The fear of falling consumer prices is absurd.

Ironically, by fighting routine price deflation, central banks create asset inflation, pent-up volatility (the Swiss franc is a prime example), speculative bubbles of increasing amplitude (housing is a prime example), and income inequality.

When those asset bubbles break, banks are inevitably in trouble over loans made on speculative assets (for example housing bubbles or more recently loans made on wells that need $90 oil to be profitable).

Then, the central bankers inevitably try to ease the shock, further encouraging moral-hazard speculation. The pattern repeats over and over creating bubbles of ever-increasing magnitude.

Musical Tribute

In spite of central bank foolishness, a musical tribute is in order.



Link if video does not play: Bonanza

Simpler Epitaph for Central Bankers

In retrospect, my above proposed tombstone epitaph for central bankers is far too long. I now propose a far simpler gravestone engraving "We F'd Up".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


You Probably Wouldn't Mind Being Arrested By These Russian Police Girls

Posted: 20 Jan 2015 10:06 AM PST

Getting handcuffed by these lovely ladies really doesn't sound all that bad.














There Is A Very Important Detail In “Friends” You Never Noticed

Posted: 20 Jan 2015 09:41 AM PST

Have you ever wondering how the cast of "Friends" always got the best seats at their favorite coffee house? They had a special trick and you're about to find out what it was.

"Friends" is probably one of the defining TV shows for a generation.



A lot of it takes place in Central Perk, a busy New York Coffee shop.



But if Central Perk is so busy - which it is - how does everyone always manage to get a seat at their favourite sofa?



You can see how they did it in this still.



Nope? Can't see it?



They RESERVED their table, all the time. It was literally right in front of our eyes for ten whole series.







It all seems so obvious now.