Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- $10,000 Scholarship for College Student Bloggers
- Greek Strikes on Eve of Critical Vote; Expect Violence
- Restaurants to Mitigate Health Care Costs by Cutting Hours; Reflections on Productivity
- Don't Throw Your Vote Away; Reflections on "Lesser of Two Evils"
$10,000 Scholarship for College Student Bloggers Posted: 06 Nov 2012 02:39 PM PST Are you in college and are you a blogger? If so you are eligible to Win a 10,000 Scholarship. Scholarship Requirements
Applications were taken starting October 28, 2012 and the submission deadline is November 13, 2012. Please see the link at the top for details. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Greek Strikes on Eve of Critical Vote; Expect Violence Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:45 PM PST In spite of all the huffing and puffing and bluffing, once again the Greek puppets will likely dance to the strings of the Troika and pass austerity measures required for Greece to get the next tranche of money. Unions, lawyers, pensioners, and workers in general are not pleased with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and have planned a major series of strikes. I expect violence if Samaras musters the votes to pass the bills. There is likely to be violence before the vote as well. Please consider Greeks Plan Strikes On Eve of Votes On Monday, public-transit workers, taxi owners and journalists around the Greek capital walked off the job in protest of the €13.5 billion ($17.3 billion) austerity and reform package to be voted on Wednesday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, all public-sector services are expected to be frozen in a 48-hour general strike called by the country's two umbrella unions—private sector GSEE and public sector Adedy—bringing chaos to the Greek capital.One curious aspect of this vote is everyone seem to think it will pass (even if by a slim margin). In votes for prior austerity measures, there appeared to be more doubt than now. If there is massive violence ahead of the vote, then perhaps it does not pass. The journal notes "If elections were held today, only 20% of Greeks respondents said they would vote for New Democracy—down from 29.7% in June—while Pasok saw its support cut almost in half to 6.5%, and Democratic Left by a third to just 4% and Syriza would garner 23% support, down from 26.9% in June." Those percentages total only 53.5%. If all of those parties are losing votes then where are the votes going? Here's the depressing answer: the Neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Restaurants to Mitigate Health Care Costs by Cutting Hours; Reflections on Productivity Posted: 06 Nov 2012 07:46 AM PST NPR "Restaurant News" confirms exactly what I have been saying about Obamacare: Restaurants to Mitigate Health Care Costs by Cutting Hours. "What we're seeing is that this health care law puts unique challenges on chain restaurants," said Rob Green, executive director of the National Council of Chain Restaurants. "The law will have cost implications on a lot of different business sectors, but restaurants and retail are in the bull's eye."Misdiagnosing the Setup Reader "Flapping Eagle" says I have it wrong and Obamacare will cause unemployment to rise. Here is his logic: When you can only work 25 hours at a job, you have ample time to work two jobs.Flawed Analysis Did you catch the flaws in Flap's analysis? I responded to Flap as follows: Many, perhaps most of these part-time workers have hours or shifts that change week to week. Moreover, they are expected to be on call in case someone is sick. Scheduling two 25 hour weeks, both subject to change and call-ins does not work! Furthermore Red Lobster and an Olive Garden are part of the same chain. The employer, Darden Restaurants, would increase full-time employment if it did what Flap suggested, and that is precisely what the chains want to avoid. Reflections on Productivity This will be resolved in the manner that I said, with one more peculiarity that I failed to mention earlier. Productivity will go down. People want more hours and get less of them. Morale will suffer. Also, some of these new hires are marginal. I have run into the issue twice already. I have had clearly new, as well as inept waiters at two different Olive Gardens in the past month. Restaurants are hiring to avoid Obamacare ramifications, and that hiring has lowered the unemployment rate. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Don't Throw Your Vote Away; Reflections on "Lesser of Two Evils" Posted: 05 Nov 2012 11:26 PM PST I have unwaveringly stated I will not vote for either president Obama or Mitt Romney. That position has not changed. I wrote about that point of view on September 19 in QE to Infinity and Beyond; Mish for President? In response, I received quite a few emails from people stating they would indeed write in "Mish" for president. I deeply appreciate the support. However, here we are on election eve (or election morning depending on your time zone), and I need to tell you something slightly different. The reason is not all states count write-in votes. For example, in Illinois, write in votes are only counted if someone declares write-in candidacy via a specific date. I missed the Illinois deadline. I also missed any other such deadlines in other states as well. Stand Up and Be Counted So as much as I appreciate the support, I have to advise, that if you want your vote to be counted, you likely have to vote for an official candidate. Sadly, that means you cannot vote for Ron Paul, for me, for yourself, or anyone other than an official declared and filed candidate. Dissatisfied With Obama and Mitt Romney? Are you disastified with the mainstream Republican and Democratic candidates? If so, I wonder if you are not in the majority. Yet, people will foolishly vote for one or the other on the misguided grounds of "lesser of two evils". Reflections on "Lesser of Two Evils" Here is my basic thought. If you keep voting for the lesser of two evils, then you will continually be presented with two evil choices! (Use your own definition of evil). Does either of these candidates represent mainstream US thinking? I think not. So why not opt out of such choices? Here's the deal. In all but a handful of states, the election has already been satisfied. For example, if you live in California you may as well piss in the wind as to go vote for Mitt Romney. Likewise, if you live in Montana, a vote for Obama is a wasted vote. So why do it? Don't Throw Your Vote Away My friend Arkady "Ari" Kamenetsky on the Right Condition blog suggests the same thing in his article Why voting third party is exactly the opposite of throwing your vote away. Ari posts an amusing flowchart leading voters to a choice that says vote for the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. The flowchart has some mathematical flaws (such as infinite loop connections that cannot be resolved), yet his article is a sound one. Specifically Ari asks ... "Are you tired of the two party system? Are you tired that every 4 years the choice becomes less and less obvious? Are you tired of voting for the same big spending, big military, big prohibition, less rights and more intervention party? Do you even believe that there are two parties anymore? Unless your entire political concern lies somewhere in the abortion/religion/homosexuality triangle then you are probably yearning for more." Well my answer to Ari's first question is "yes". I am indeed tired of the choices presented. I wrote in Ron Paul in the last two elections and was going to write in "Mish" for this one. However, I want my vote to be counted. Therefore, I am going to vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. Gary Earl Johnson is an American businessman, a former Governor of New Mexico, and the Libertarian Party nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 election. Several months ago I took a survey that showed I had 96% of my views in common with Ron Paul and 95% in common with Gary Johnson. Clearly I have 100% of my views in common with myself, but 95% is good enough. Even if you have far less in common with Johnson, if you live in a decided state, then you have nothing to lose by voting for him, and everything to gain. If you do not like either Obama or Romney, please consider a protest vote for Johnson because that will be counted but a vote for Mish may not be. Apologies if you did not see this in time. I meant for this post to go out much sooner. Don't Throw Your Love (or your vote) Away I offer this musical tribute for your vote. Link if the above video does not play: The Searchers - Don't Throw Your Love Away Election Night Coverage With Mish on National Radio Regardless of the outcome, I will be on Coast-to-Coast national syndicated radio with George Noory to discuss the election results and the impact on the stock market and jobs. The broadcast starts at midnight Central, 10 PM Pacific. Click here for a station in your area, many of which have an internet broadcast feed, even if none are close by. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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