joi, 6 martie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


It's So Cold ... Polar Bears Taken Inside; Hundreds of Students Arrested Protesting Keystone Pipeline; Global Warming or Global Cooling?

Posted: 06 Mar 2014 06:51 PM PST

Seriously misguided students are up in arms over the possible revival of the Keystone Pipeline project from Canada to the US. Their concern is greenhouse gas and global warming.

The notion that global warming is caused by man-made greenhouse gasses is questionable enough. The globe has gone through periods of glaciation and melting over hundreds of millions of years. Scientists think they can model changes over a period of hundreds or thousands of years when even 100,000 years may be insufficient.

Anything that happened in the last 100 or 1,000 years can be nothing more than a random fluctuation given the million-year cycles in play.

Trilobite Mass Extinction

I have a fossil of a trilobite on my desk.

They are now extinct, wiped out in a mass extinction about 250 million years ago. Trilobites flourished for 270 million years before that.

Climate change may have been a cause of extinction. Rest assured it was not man-made. Nor could there have been a man-made solution.

It's So Cold ... Polar Bears Taken Inside

To pretend we can track global warming over the last 100 years and attribute that to man-made global warming is ludicrous.

Indeed, scientists are now scrambling to explain why there has been global cooling for the last 17 years.
Global warming is nowhere to be found. The mean global temperature has not risen in 17 years and has been slowly falling for approximately the past 10 years. In 2013, there were more record-low temperatures than record-high temperatures in the United States.

At the end of the first week in January, a brutal spell of cold weather settled over most of the country. Multiple cold-temperature records were shattered across the country. Some sites experienced frigid conditions not seen since the 19th century. Chicago and New York City broke temperature records set in 1894 and 1896, respectively. These extremes were not singular, but exemplary of conditions throughout much of the continent. Temperatures in Chicago were so cold that a polar bear at the Lincoln Park Zoo had to be taken inside.
Global Cooling?

I am as skeptical about global cooling as I am about global warming. Both notions are silly given the eons involved in long-term warming and cooling trends.

Assume Mish is Wrong

Let's assume I am totally wrong. Let's assume man-made global warming is happening.

If so, what is the likelihood of politicians doing anything reasonable about it? I propose the odds border on zero.

To date, governments generally worsen every problem they have thrown money at. Affordable housing is a key example. I can come up with countless other examples.

So even if you do believe in man-made global warming, arguably the best thing to do is leave it alone, waiting for a free market solution, not a government solution.

With that lengthy backdrop I received an interesting email this evening from Meltwater Press for which I do not have a link.

Progressive Groups Fighting Keystone XL Pledge Strong Resistance
San Francisco, CA -- As Friday's deadline nears to submit public comments opposing the Keystone XL pipeline, progressive groups CREDO and Rainforest Action Network have collected more than 169,000 comments to the State Department urging Sec. Kerry to reject the Keystone XL pipeline, while simultaneously preparing to unleash a massive wave of civil disobedience if Sec. Kerry allows the State Department to continue ignoring the facts on Keystone XL, and recommends approval of the toxic tar sands pipeline to President Obama.

"If Secretary Kerry truly believes that climate change is a weapon of mass destruction -- then he must oppose the carbon bomb that is Keystone XL," said Elijah Zarlin, CREDO's senior campaign manager and formerly a senior national email writer on President Obama's 2008 campaign. "Secretary Kerry inherited a mess in the State Department's evaluation process, and more than 86,000 Americans stand ready to risk arrest if he fails to recognize the climate impact of this disastrous project."

To date, CREDO has collected 141,428 public comments and Rainforest Action Network has collected 27,638 public comments to the State Department in opposition of the Keystone XL pipeline. CREDO and Rainforest Action Network will join a host of other groups in delivering large numbers of public comments on Friday.
Climate Change a Weapon of Mass Destruction

Please note the misguided lunacy: Climate change is now allegedly a weapon of mass destruction.

Hundreds of Students Arrested at White House Protesting Keystone XL

Two days ago the Huffington Post reported Hundreds of Students Arrested at White House Protesting Keystone XL.
I just came back from the White House, where the police are still arresting the hundreds of students who are taking part in what will likely be the largest act of youth civil disobedience at the White House in a generation.


Photo: Kristina Banks
This is XL Dissent: a massive surge of protest against the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline and a powerful show of solidarity with all communities who are fighting the fossil fuel industry and confronting the impacts of the climate crisis.


"An entire movement has thrown itself into in this Keystone fight, from local frontline groups to big national green organizations," 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben wrote in an email. "But this weekend shows the power and bravery of some of the most crucial elements: young people, and activists who understand the centrality of environmental justice."

The scene down at the White House this afternoon was incredible. There were just over a thousand students that rallied in Lafayette Park, but it sounded like 10 thousand. This wasn't your parents' protest, but the spark-shooting dynamo of student movement that is beginning to embrace its true power.

"Obama was the first President I voted for, and I want real climate action and a rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline," said Nick Stracco, a Senior at Tulane University and one of the lead organizers of XL Dissent. "The people that voted him into office have made it absolutely clear what we want, and that's to reject Keystone XL."

President Obama has a choice to make. He can side with Big Oil and approve Keystone XL, tarnishing his environmental legacy and getting little political benefit in the process. Or he can stand with the generation of young people that helped power him into office and reject this XL climate disaster. It's time to make the right call.
Wow.

Forced to make a choice, I side with the polar bears: Stay indoors. Even if man-made global warming is a reality and not a myth, do you really want Al Gore or Obama in charge of doing something about it?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Blank Check Proposal for More Tax Hikes Heads for Illinois Legislature; Picking-Your-Pocket Numbers: How Much More Will You Pay?

Posted: 06 Mar 2014 02:46 PM PST

Currently the Illinois state constitution requires a flat tax on income. Even with the flat tax, Democrats have hiked taxes again and again, on individuals and corporations.

The results speak for themselves - Illinois population is shrinking. Illinoisans exited the state for Indiana, Wisconsin, and Texas.

For details please see Jobs Bowl: Illinois vs. Texas and Indiana.

Blank Check Proposal for More Tax Hikes

Not content with the damage they have already caused, "Progressives" want even more. Now they want to modify the Illinois constitution to take more out of your pocket.

Via email from Kristina Rasmussen at the Illinois Policy Institute ...
Legislators are being asked to consider a constitutional amendment that would replace Illinois' flat income tax with a progressive tax, sometimes referred to as "graduated" or "variable rate" tax. Others incorrectly call it a "fair tax" – but it is nothing of the sort.

What exactly should these families cut from their household budget to make room for more government? The mortgage payment? Food? Utilities? Retirement savings?

Proponents of a progressive tax hike are deliberately misleading the public by pretending that the current income tax rate of 5 percent, which reverts to 3.75 percent at the end of 2014, continues on in perpetuity.

Of course, the proponents of a tax hike are not interested in an honest policy discussion. They want to minimize perceived costs to deceive voters. The easiest way to do that is to pretend that current law doesn't give every Illinoisan real tax relief next year.

We won't let them get away with this illusion.

One thing is for sure: Regardless of the final rate-and-bracket structure, a progressive tax will slam communities like those within DuPage County. This is because they're "rich" relative to other areas in Illinois in the same way that the owner of a Honda Accord is "rich" compared to the owner of a Ford Focus.

Kristina Rasmussen
Executive Vice President
Progressive Picking-Your-Pocket Numbers

Rep. Naomi Jakobsson, D-Champaign, is the brainchild of one "Progressive" proposal. Here are the Numbers.



Worse Proposals

Recall that Corollary Number Five of the "Law of Bad Ideas" says that no idea is so bad it cannot be made worse.

Sure enough: Another progressive tax plan, this one developed by the union-funded Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, increases the tax rate for anyone who earns more than $5,000.

Those making $300,000 will have a rate of 10% and those making $1 million will see a rate of 11%. The only beneficiaries of this ludicrous proposal are those who make less than $5,000. Everyone else will see tax rates rise! 

That's the true meaning of "progressive".



How Much More Will You Pay?

How much higher will your taxes be under a progressive tax?

Visit Unfair Illinois to find out.

The above link has a Facebook feature but you do not have to use it. I didn't, but I did sign the petition.

Why Will it Stop There?

Here's my question: Whatever this costs now, why would it stop there?

Flat out, I will tell you it won't. Anyone being honest knows it won't. The massive "temporary" tax hike Quinn passed will go away, and the Progressives still want more and more and more.

Here's corollary number six to the "Law of Bad Ideas": Bad ideas lead to more bad ideas to fix problems caused by previous bad ideas.

What's the Real Problem?

If you want to understand the real problem, please see Monetarism, Abenomics, QE, and Minimum Wage Proposals: One Bad Idea Leads to Another, and Another.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

What Country Should Crimea Be Part Of? Reflections on Nation Building and US Hypocrisy

Posted: 06 Mar 2014 11:40 AM PST

An up or down vote on whether Crimea stays with Ukraine or joins Russia is slated for March 16, just 10 days from now.

Please consider Crimea Votes to Join Russia, Accelerating Ukraine Crisis.
Crimea's parliament voted to join Russia on Thursday and its Moscow-backed government set a referendum on the decision in 10 days' time in a dramatic escalation of the crisis over the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula.

The vice premier of Crimea, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, said a referendum on the status would take place on March 16. All state property would be "nationalized", the Russian ruble adopted and Ukrainian troops treated as occupiers and forced to surrender or leave, he said.
Historical Background

Let's take a look at the historical and political references as noted by the Financial Times.
"Crimea was, is and will be an integral part of Ukraine," said Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukraine prime minister. Speaking in Brussels, he said the referendum had "no legal grounds" and urged the Russian government not to support those advocating separatism in Ukraine.

Oleksandr Turchynov, Ukraine's acting president, said Crimea's referendum would be banned, its parliament disbanded and snap elections held.

Crimea has been a bone of contention between Moscow and Kiev ever since Nikita Krushchev gave it to Ukraine in February 1954, in a move to mark the 300th anniversary of the 1654 treaty that unified Ukraine and Russia.

In 1992, Crimea's parliament voted to declare the region independent of Ukraine and scheduled a referendum to confirm the vote. But after pressure from Kiev, lawmakers backtracked, announcing the peninsula was part of Ukraine.
What Country Should Crimea Belong To?

Like it or not, it's pretty clear that in recent history Crimea was not part of Ukraine. Rather Crimea became part of Ukraine without a vote. In 1992 it almost left Ukraine, but the Crimea parliament was talked out of a vote.

What country should Crimea be part of? Should it be its own country? And should the people decide, or politicians?

U.S. Hypocrisy

Somehow it's OK for the U.S. to send troops to Iraq and Afghanistan half a world away, supposedly to protect U.S. interests, but it's not OK for Russia to protect its interests at its own doorstep.

Two wrongs don't make a right, I simply want to note the hypocritical nature of U.S. statements on the matter.

In general, I don't condone military actions. Nor do I condone Russia's military actions now. That said, Russia at least has genuine political interest in its actions.

The U.S. had zero business in Iraq and there is certainly no justification for ongoing U.S. troops in Afghanistan for the last 10 years.

Rule of Votes

Politicians don't want votes unless the vote is going their way.

That Crimea's parliament is willing to hold a vote is a strong indication of which way the vote will go.

Reflections on Nation Building

No matter how the Crimea vote goes, there is going to be a significant number of people who will despise the outcome.

This is precisely what is guaranteed to happen when politicians merge regions into countries for political reasons.

Iraq was once three distinct countries. Wikipedia offers these notes on Iraq History.

Following WWI ... "Britain imposed a Hāshimite monarchy on Iraq and defined the territorial limits of Iraq without taking into account the politics of the different ethnic and religious groups in the country, in particular those of the Kurds and the Assyrians to the north. During the British occupation, the Shi'ites and Kurds fought for independence."

Iraq achieved independence in 1932. Then came multiple coups, two US invasions, religious wars, and ethnic battles that continue to this day.

The Kurds want their own country. They once had it. Here is a Map of Kurdistan.



Turkey and Iraq are both involved in the Kurdish mess.  Kurdistan once overlapped part of Turkey and part of Iraq. The Kurds now want their own independent area of Iraq. Turkey does not want that to happen fearing it will unite Kurdish sentiment in Turkey.

Historically speaking, no good ever came from the "nation building" political exercise of forcing together widely different ethnic and religious groups into a single country.

Why should it be any different this time?

So let me ask again: What country should Crimea belong to and who should decide?

Whatever you answer, the U.S. should stay out of this mess. It's not our battle, and sending missiles to the Czech Republic as part of the solution as McCain proposes is decidedly preposterous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Dubai Police Super Cars

Posted: 06 Mar 2014 02:32 PM PST

Dubai police can spend up to $1.6 million for a car.

Renault Twizy Cost: $10,000
Top speed: 50 mph (80 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): Hahaha
Engine size: LOL
Horsepower: 17 HP (13 kWh)
Fuel economy: 0 mpg





Chevrolet Camaro SS Cost: $34,000
Top speed: 155 mph (250 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 4.7 seconds
Engine size: 6.2L
Horsepower: 426 HP
Fuel economy: 16 city/24 highway mpg




Ford Mustang GT
Cost: $35,000
Top speed: 146 mph (235 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 4.8 seconds
Engine size: 5.0L
Horsepower: 420 HP
Fuel economy: 15 city/26 highway mpg





Nissan GT-R Cost: $100,000
Top speed: 193 mph (311 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 2.9 seconds
Engine size: 3.8L
Horsepower: 545 HP
Fuel economy: 16 city/23 highway mpg



BMW M6 Gran Coupé
Cost: $115,000
Top speed: 155 mph (249 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 4.1 seconds
Engine size: 4.4L
Horsepower: 560 HP
Fuel economy: 14 city/20 highway mpg



Audi R8 Cost: $170,000
Top speed: 198 mph (319 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 3.7 seconds
Engine size: 5.2L
Horsepower: 550 HP
Fuel economy: 12 city/19 highway mpg





Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG
Cost: $200,000 Top speed: 204 mph (328 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 3.2 seconds
Engine size: 6.2L
Horsepower: 583 HP
Fuel economy: 13 city/19 highway mpg



Bentley Continental GT
Cost: $220,000 Top speed: 197 mph (318 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 4.5 seconds
Engine size: 6.0L
Horsepower: 567 HP
Fuel economy: 13 city/20 highway mpg





McLaren MP4-1
Cost: $240,000 Top speed: 207 mph (333 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 2.9 seconds
Engine size: 3.8L
Horsepower: 616 HP
Fuel economy: 15 city/22 highway





Brabus B63S-700 Widestar (modified Mercedes-Benz G63 AMG)
Cost: $250,000 
Top speed: 186 mph (300 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 4.9 seconds
Engine size: 5.5L
Horsepower: 700 HP
Fuel economy: 12 city/14 highway mpg





Ferrari FF
Cost: $300,000 Top speed: 208 mph (335 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 3.7 seconds
Engine size: 6.3L
Horsepower: 651 HP
Fuel economy: 11 city/16 highway mpg





Lamborghini Aventador LP 700-4
Cost: $450,000 Top speed: 217 mph (350 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 2.9 seconds
Engine size: 6.5L
Horsepower: 700 HP
Fuel economy: 11 city/17 highway mpg





Aston Martin One-77 (limited edition, 1 of 77) Cost: $1,400,000
Top speed: 220 mph (354 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 3.5 seconds
Engine size: 7.3L
Horsepower: 750 HP
Fuel economy: 9 city/14 highway mpg



Bugatti Veyron
Cost: $1,600,000 Top speed: 252 mph (406 km/h)
Acceleration 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h): 2.5 seconds
Engine size: 8.0 Horsepower: 1,001 HP
Fuel economy: 8 city/15 highway mpg

50 Awesome Facts About Languages [Infographic]

Posted: 06 Mar 2014 10:46 AM PST

Do you know how many languages are currently spoken across the world? Or that there are endangered languages just like endangered species? Our infographic will tell you more about this fascinating subject.


Click on Image to Enlarge.



Via uiclondon

Transformation of One of the Britain's Fattest Kids

Posted: 06 Mar 2014 10:00 AM PST

23-year-old Nathan Hewitt used to weigh 322 lbs (146 kg). He lost 168 lbs (76kg) by going on a strict diet. At 19 he had surgery to remove excess folds of skin from his body. Now he works as a weight loss coach.






















via dailymail

Here's what I did yesterday:

 

Hi, everyone --

We never know what curveballs life is going to throw at us. But we do know that those curveballs come. That's why it's so important that everyone -- including healthy young adults -- sign up for health insurance and get our friends and family to sign up, too.

Yesterday, I traveled to Miami to meet with folks doing extraordinary work on the ground to get more people health coverage -- and I took over the @MichelleObama Instagram account to share it all with you.

Check out what my day looked like yesterday -- then help me get the word out.

Take a look at my day

Take a look at my day

Take a look at my day

Take a look at my day

If you still need coverage, you only have until March 31 to sign up, so go to HealthCare.gov right away and get covered.

And if you've already signed up for coverage, be sure to find those people in your lives who still need to sign up, and make sure they do it.

This matters, and it's going to take every single one of us to get it done -- so let's get to work.

Thank you.

First Lady Michelle Obama

Visit WhiteHouse.gov
 

President Obama: If You Work Hard, It Should Pay Off

 
 
 
 
 
 
  Watch Live

Today at 1:05 p.m. ET, President Obama will deliver a statement on Ukraine. Watch on WhiteHouse.gov/Live.


 

  Featured

President Obama: If You Work Hard, It Should Pay Off

Yesterday, the President spoke to a crowd filled with students about how raising the minimum wage will expand opportunity for all Americans, young and old.

Here's what President Obama had to say:

Nobody who works full-time should ever have to raise a family in poverty. That violates a basic sense of who we are. And that's why it's time to give America a raise... What every American wants is a paycheck that lets them support their families, know a little economic security, pass down some hope and optimism to their kids. And that's worth fighting for.

That's why it's time to raise the wage. Learn more and, if you agree, add your name.

President Obama addresses a crowd in Connecticut.

President Barack Obama delivers remarks on the minimum wage, at Central Connecticut State University in New Britain, Connecticut, March 5, 2014. The President is joined by Gov. Dannel Malloy of Connecticut; Labor Secretary Thomas Perez, Gov. Peter Shumlin of Vermont, Gov. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, and Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)


 

  Top Stories

A Day in the Life: The First Lady Talks Healthy Families in Miami

Yesterday, the First Lady traveled Miami to meet with people doing extraordinary work on the ground to get more people health coverage -- and she took over the @MichelleObama Instagram account to share it all with you.

READ MORE

Brian Deese Answers Your Questions About the Budget

After sending his 2015 budget to Congress, President Obama visited a local elementary school to discuss what he called a "roadmap" for the agenda he laid out in his State of the Union address to restore opportunity for all Americans. Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget Brian Deese took to Twitter to answer questions about the President's budget.

READ MORE

Presidential Innovation Fellows Round 3: Serve. Create. Innovate.

Today, we are very excited to announce that applications are now being accepted for the third round of the Presidential Innovation Fellows program. This initiative pairs talented, diverse individuals from outside government with top Federal innovators to implement game-changing projects that make the Federal Government work better for the American people.

READ MORE


 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

11:35 AM: The President participates in a town hall

1:05 PM: The President delivers a statement WATCH LIVE

1:10 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WATCH LIVE

7:00 PM: The President and the First Lady host "In Performance at the White House: Women of Soul" WATCH LIVE


Did Someone Forward This to You? Sign Up for Email Updates

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy
Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111