luni, 7 septembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Glass Shortage Has Skyscraper Costs Soaring: Got Glass?

Posted: 07 Sep 2015 06:19 PM PDT

In the housing bust, many glass manufacturers went out of business or mothballed operation.

Interestingly, condo towers and new skyscrapers are once again booming, but glass has not kept up. As a result, Cost of Skyscraper Glass Hits Dizzying Heights.
A shortage of glass is taking a toll on the nation's commercial building boom, adding millions of dollars to the cost of new skyscrapers and halting some projects midway through construction. Apartment buildings are sprouting up at their briskest pace in decades, and new office towers are rising in major markets like Manhattan at the fastest rate since the early 1990s.

Restarting idled glass factories is a costly and time-consuming process, so property developers say the current shortage could last well into next year, if not longer.

In the meantime, builders are reporting that curtain-wall prices, which have risen more than 30% in the past 18 months, are setting records.

Glass accounts for roughly one-quarter of a construction project's budget, so the extra expense can add tens of millions of dollars to a building's cost.

Delays are also a problem: Several towers in San Francisco's trendy Rincon Hill neighborhood, home to some of the city's most expensive apartments, are standing bare while their builders wait for glass.

"Nowadays, the glass guys are dictating the timetables of a project to us, instead of the other way around," said Ralph Esposito, who oversees commercial construction by the New York office of Lend Lease Corp. , one of the country's largest building contractors, with nearly 30 high-rise towers under way. "I don't think people had the leap of faith that the [real-estate] industry would be as strong as the run we're currently on."

Producers shut 11 out of 47 float-glass manufacturing plants in North America between 2007 and 2014, according to PPG Industries Inc., a Pittsburgh-based glass maker, as demand for glass of all kind—from building facades to auto windshields—sagged during the downturn. Building a new plant can cost hundreds of millions of dollars, PPG says, and restarting an idled line can take months because workers have to jackhammer thousands of pounds of hardened glass to remove it from melting tanks.

Scott Kinter, a senior vice president in Boston with AvalonBay Communities Inc., one of the largest U.S. apartment-builders, said his team began hearing about glass-related delays about a month ago, and he expects a significant curtain-wall shortage in the fourth quarter of 2015 and into early 2016. Prices are up between 35% and 45% from 2013, he said.
Leap of Faith

Glass manufacturers did not have a leap of faith two years ago. It's more of a leap of faith today that skyscraper, auto, and housing demand will stay intact with a recovery this long in the tooth.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Majority in UK Now Favor Leaving EU; Businesses Told to Shut Up Over "Brexit Poll"

Posted: 07 Sep 2015 08:40 AM PDT

In the wake of the EU migration crisis with German chancellor Angela Merkel chiding UK prime minister David Cameron for not doing enough, a shocking new poll shows Majority in UK Wants to Leave the EU.
A majority of British people would vote to leave the European Union in the wake of the migrant crisis engulfing the continent, a shock new Mail on Sunday poll has found.

If a referendum were to be held tomorrow on whether to remain a member of the EU, 51 per cent of British people would vote 'No'.

It follows a string of polls over recent years which have given comfortable leads to the pro-European camp. Significantly, it is the first measure of public opinion since the Government changed the wording of the referendum question, lending weight to claims that the new phrasing boosts the chances of victory for the 'Out' campaign.

The survey also found strong backing for David Cameron's stance in standing up to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who wants the UK to take in a greater share of migrants.

Growing public support to cut all ties with Brussels came as it was revealed the Prime Minister told Merkel to her face: 'I could walk away from the EU.'

At a private dinner in Downing Street, Merkel accused him of being 'too forceful' in demanding concessions from the rest of the EU. That was why 'we all hate you and isolate you,' she said.
The Above from The Mail.

I strongly doubt Merkel actually said anything resembling "we all hate you". Normally I would stay away from such sources but the Financial Times linked to the article as well.

Brexit Question Rewritten

The Financial Times reports Blow to Cameron with Order to Rewrite Brexit Poll Question.
David Cameron suffered his first defeat in the build-up to the Brexit referendum campaign after being told to rewrite the allegedly biased question to be put on the ballot paper.

Mr Cameron agreed to change the wording after the Electoral Commission objected to the suggestion that voters be invited to say Yes to Britain staying in the European Union.

Eurosceptics celebrated the verdict. Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence party, said: "I'm in no doubt that the Yes/No offering was leading to great confusion."

The EU referendum bill going through parliament had proposed voters be asked: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?"

But the independent Electoral Commission urged the government to change the question to: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

Pro-EU campaigners shrugged and said they would continue to call themselves the Yes campaign. One said: "In any case the word "remain" sounds static: fighting for the status quo is an advantage."

The Electoral Commission said the original wording was clear but contained a "double bias" by including only the "remain" option and having the "yes" answer endorse the status quo.

Research from pollsters ICM and ComRes suggests that voters are more likely to say they favour the status quo when framed as a yes or no question rather than whether the UK should remain or leave.
Businesses Told to Shut Up Over "Brexit Poll"

Please consider Businesses Told to Shut Up Over "Brexit Poll".
David Cameron and his advisers are urging the UK's business leaders not to speak out in favour of the country remaining in the EU, for fear they will jeopardise the prime minister's sensitive renegotiation of Britain's terms of membership ahead of a referendum.

One ally of Mr Cameron's said that the government had been clear in its message to business to "shut up [on a British exit] until a deal is done with the EU".

A poll in the Mail on Sunday by Survation found 43 per cent of people in favour of Brexit — against 40 per cent backing the status quo: suggesting a significant shift towards euroscepticism.

The prime minister's team is concerned that if business leaders speak out now in favour of remaining in the EU they risk damaging the renegotiation process as well as potentially turning public opinion against continued membership. One person close to Downing Street's thinking said that Mr Cameron felt public statements by UK companies at this point would be "counterproductive".
You Talk Too Much

Here's a musical tribute to Cameron's request for businesses to "shut up".



Link if video does not play: Frankie Ford - You Talk Too Much.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Majority of Greeks Now Say Euro Has Harmed Greece

Posted: 07 Sep 2015 08:04 AM PDT

A Gallup poll conducted in May and June but just released today shows Majority of Greeks Say Adopting Euro Has Harmed Country
As the Greek debt crisis came to a head again earlier this summer, it's no surprise that leaders in more solvent eurozone countries expressed doubts about Greece's participation in the monetary union -- but these doubts are also widespread among Greeks themselves. A majority of adults in the country -- 55% -- said in a poll conducted May 14-June 16 that they think converting from the Greek drachma to the euro in 2001 has harmed Greece, while one-third (34%) said the common currency has benefited the country.
Euro Question

In general, do you think changing this country's currency to the euro has benefited or harmed Greece?



A question on EU membership shows the opposite result.

EU Question

In general, does membership in the European Union benefit or harm Greece?



The curious thing about the first poll is a huge majority of Greeks have said they want to stay on the euro. Perhaps we need a new poll.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Three changes in marketing

Three changes in marketing

1. Advertising and marketing are no longer the same thing.

2. The most valuable forms of marketing are consumed voluntarily.

3. The network effect is the most powerful force in the world of ideas.

(The last assertion is based on the fact that culture changes everything about how we live our lives, and culture is driven by the network effect... society works because it's something we do together.)

Just about every big organization ignores all three. 

       

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