Central Perk: 10 apr. 2014

joi, 10 aprilie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

LA Commission Studies Pension Crisis, Recommends New Commission; Bankruptcy Inevitable

Posted: 10 Apr 2014 11:22 AM PDT

The Los Angeles 2020 Commission studied amongst other things the sorry state of LA's pension mess. In a case of can-kicking extraordinaire, its recommendation was to appoint another commission to further study the problem.

Please consider Report Finds Los Angeles at Risk of Decline

A scathing verdict on Los Angeles's civic health that was delivered in a one-two punch — the second on Wednesday — by a committee of lawyers, developers, labor leaders and former elected officials who make up something of the Old Guard here. The Los Angeles 2020 Commission presented a catalog of failings that it said were a unique burden to the city: widespread poverty and job stagnation, huge municipal pension obligations, a struggling port and tourism industry and paralyzing traffic that would not be eased even with a continuing multibillion-dollar mass transit initiative.

The first part of the report was released in December. Its bleak portrait of Los Angeles's future was designed to break through and draw attention to the city's plight like "an alarm clock," said Mickey Kantor, a former United States Secretary of Commerce who is the co-chairman of the commission, adding that the committee wanted to ensure that the document did not become "another report gathering dust on the shelf."

But as exhaustive as Chapter 1 was in laying out problems, the follow-up presented here on Wednesday was strikingly less ambitious and specific, testimony to what municipal leaders have long said was the intractability of the challenges, the difficulty in getting things done in a community with a history of lackluster civic involvement and an institutionally weak mayor.

On what is widely seen as perhaps the biggest threat to the long-term fiscal stability of the city — the crushing cost of pensions and worker benefits — the commission recommended appointing another commission.

Mr. Kantor and Austin Beutner, a former deputy mayor and Wall Street investment banker who is the other co-chairman, said they did not have the expertise needed to suggest what the city might do. Hence, the proposal for a "Commission for Retirement Security."

"Yeah, we did kick the ball to someone else, because we didn't have the staff at the time, the resources to really do what would be a professional job in coming up with correct recommendations in this very technical area," Mr. Kantor said.

Bankruptcy Inevitable

The 2020 report is sure to gather dust like all studies before and after until the inevitable happens. The inevitable is "bankruptcy".

The only conceivable way LA can meet its pension obligations is to reduce them.
Given that unions will not negotiate, the only conceivable way to reduce them is bankruptcy.

LA is already bankrupt, the only missing ingredient is political recognition of that simple fact.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Putin Sends Letter to 18 Countries Threatening to Cut Supply of Gas; China-Russia Gas Deal Expected

Posted: 10 Apr 2014 09:44 AM PDT

The pipeline of natural gas to Ukraine and Europe is on the verge of shutdown this morning. Putin sent letters to 18 countries demanding upfront payment for gas as Ukraine refuses to pay the price Russia wants.

Please consider Europe Supply in Jeopardy as Putin Threatens Ukraine Gas Cut.

In a letter sent to European leaders and seen by the Financial Times on Thursday, the Russian president said that Gazprom had a contractual right to force Ukraine to pay in advance for gas supplies and in the event of further violation of the conditions of payment "will completely or partially cease gas deliveries".

The letter is the first time Moscow has so clearly threatened to cut gas supplies to Ukraine, a key transit route for 15 per cent of European gas consumption. It marks an escalation of economic pressure on Ukraine at a time when Kiev's new government is already struggling to defuse a stand-off with armed pro-Russian separatists in the country's east.

Gazprom and Ukraine have been involved in an increasingly hostile dispute in recent weeks, with the state-controlled Russian company nearly doubling the price of gas for Ukraine, a move described by Arseniy Yatseniuk, the country's acting prime minister, as "a plan to pressure and grab Ukraine through gas and economic aggression".

Ukraine says it will not accept the newly announced price of $485 per thousand cubic metres, while Gazprom insists that Ukraine pay off its debt.

Putin blamed European countries for Ukraine's economic turmoil, saying that EU member states had contributed to the country's trade deficit, while Russia had subsidised the Ukrainian economy by $35bn in the past four years through lower gas prices and unpaid fines.

30-Year Gas Deal With China Expected

Bloomberg reports Putin Expected to Sign China Gas Deal as Crisis Forces Hand

Vladimir Putin is more likely to sign a 30-year deal to supply pipeline gas to China next month after more than a decade of false starts because the crisis in Ukraine is forcing Russia to look for markets outside Europe.

While Putin and President Xi Jinping will make the final decision in Beijing next month, Russia's need for new customers means it's pushing to complete a deal first mooted in 1997, a manager at gas-export monopoly OAO Gazprom (GAZP) and a government official said, asking not to be named because talks are ongoing. In China yesterday, Russia's deputy prime minister said he "hoped" a deal would be signed in May.

The crisis in Ukraine has increased the importance of Russia's relationship with China, its largest trade partner outside the European Union and the only country in the United Nations Security Council not to censure its actions in Crimea. Until a China pipeline is built, Russia has few export markets for gas outside Europe, leaving it vulnerable to sanctions and competition from U.S. exports of shale gas.

Putin Turns the Screws

Also consider Putin Threatens Ukraine's Imports to Turn Economic Screw.

President Vladimir Putin told his government to develop plans to replace imports from Ukraine and said Russia can't subsidize its neighbor permanently, increasing economic pressure as the government in Kiev battles separatists.

Ukraine's pro-European cabinet accuses Russia of stoking unrest in the regions near the nations' border in a bid to destabilize next month's presidential election.

The Ukrainian government also says Russian bans on goods such as dairy products are politically motivated. The U.S. is providing legal advisers to help Ukraine file a complaint against Russia with the World Trade Organization, Nuland said in Washington.

The U.S. also is working with Ukraine and the European Union in an effort to limit Russia's ability to use the threat of a natural-gas cutoff, Nuland said.

"The most likely source of quick gas for Ukraine in the event of a shutoff comes in reverse flows from Slovakia, from Hungary, from Poland," she said. "This requires some upgrading of infrastructure, it requires some investment, it requires some political decisions."

Putin Has Upper Hand

Notice the hypocrisy of the US complaint that Russia's bans on Ukraine goods is "politically motivated".

What the heck are US sponsored sanctions if not "politically motivated". Was Obama dumb enough to believe Russia would not respond? Or did he simply not care about the consequences to Ukraine and Europe?

By now, two things should be crystal clear

Russia has the upper hand.
More sanctions cannot possibly help.

Finally, the statement by Nuland regarding "reverse flows of natural gas from Slovakia, from Hungary, from Poland," is preposterous.

For starters, the infrastructure is not in place. But even if the infrastructure was in place, precisely where are Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland going to get the gas to send to the Ukraine?

The apparent answer is Russia, and Russia can cut off all gas to Europe in response.

The only thing missing in this sorry charade is more counterproductive bellowing from senator John McCain about putting missiles in Georgia.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Celebrities Without Makeup on Instagram
Haunted Paintings
Meet Yun Tang, The First Ever Human Barbie From China

Celebrities Without Makeup on Instagram

Posted: 10 Apr 2014 04:43 PM PDT

Instagram photos of famous girls wearing no makeup.

Haunted Paintings

Posted: 10 Apr 2014 04:07 PM PDT

Haunted artwork you don't want to look at.

Bruno Amadio created a string of striking paintings featuring weeping children. Beginning in 1985, stories regarding the paintings' ability to both start, and avoid fires popped up. "The Crying Boy" inexplicably survived dozens of house fires, and people are scared these paintings purposely set houses ablaze.

In 2010, Sean Robinson blamed his misfortune on a painting he owned entitled "The Anguished Man". His grandmother told him the painter used his own blood on it and committed suicide. Both report shadowy figures, rising smoke, and hearing anguished screams. You can even watch Robinson's videos of these phenomena on YouTube.

Be careful - it's reported that just looking at this image can cause fainting, dizziness, and unease. "The Hands Resist Him" was purchased by a couple who immediately complained the boy and creepy doll didn't just change position regularly, but would leave the painting altogether and appear in the room itself. Many people suffer ill effects when viewing or even trying to print online copies of this image.

This portrait of Bernardo de Galvez hangs in Hotel Galvez, and it is reported his painted eyes follow you as you pass it by. If you attempt a photo of de Galvez without his permission, you will never get a clear shot - you might even end up with skeletal images like this guy did: http:www.galvestonghost.comfilesap3.jpg

After the discovery of this painting of Madame Delphine LaLaurie, weird things started happening, including objects going missing, cloths bundled in fireplaces but not burning, and a mysterious "grey lady" appearing suddenly to carpenters. People think the Madame isn't too pleased with restorations being done to her old home.

This painting was a purposeful work created by "Caregan", an online user of feasters who mostly does pieces involving yuri-style bondagado. A made-up story goes along with the image, but even Caregan reports having had trouble finishing the work - and many others find it particularly unnerving as well.

The story is that a talented Korean girl painted this image shortly before committing suicide. If you stare at it for long enough, it will change. Some purport the girl transforms into a deranged psychotic, while others claim to have seen a haggard old woman. Be warned, though - a few imposters float around the net, the result of photoshop and jealous pseudo-artists claiming the image is actually theirs. You can search YouTube for extended videos of the piece, where people take the stare challenge.

This painting hangs in Austin's Driskill Hotel. Many visitors report feeling sick, dizzy, or getting a "lifting" sensation while gazing upon the image for too long. Apparently the owners of Driskill tried to remedy this by moving the painting from the lobby to the 5th floor.

This is one of a set of incredibly dark, mysterious portraits by a Taiwanese artist named Lo Chang Peng. People are often disturbed and feel unnerved by his renderings - although I personally find them gorgeous!

Said to be the most frightening painting of all time, Goya's "Saturn Eating His Son" does not just exist for the sake of being macabre. An entire philosophy emerges from it, with the image becoming symbolic for everything from abuse to fascism. A particularly interesting look into how it relates to the film Pan's Labyrinth.

Apparently the malevolent spirit of murderer John Wayne Gacy still exists within his paintings of "Pogo the Clown". Due to his notoriety, works he created while on death row are highly coveted. Musician Nikki Stone purchased Pogo, and soon got rid of it after his dog died and mother was diagnosed with cancer. Actor Johnny Depp also bought a Pogo, and suddenly contracted a pathological fear of clowns and likewise, dumped the painting.

This portrait is from Casa de Greene, and was purchased on a whim by a guy's father who saw it "somewhere in Spain" and couldn't resist buying it. The image has a way of putting a mysterious hold on who gazes upon it, and the father believes the girl in the painting is a witch, since her tears are falling at the same rate.

This is a work by the famous Yuko Tatushima. Along with being an accomplished artist, she is also a doll artist and performer - she played Ice in the film S-94 -. Apparently her talents take on a much more paranormal purpose. This particular work is said to induce feelings of suicide in those who gaze upon it.

This image is from J.R. Barker, an artist whose work is purportedly so eerily awe-inspiring, he instantly received contracts to illustrate on editorials, video game concept art, comic books, medical books, and trading cards. Chances are, if you play a video game or any kind of collectible card game, Barker has done the artwork for it.

Diego Velasquez created an unnerving work entitled "Venus With Mirror". Any owners of this piece have mysteriously become sick or were outright killed. No museum in history has ever been able to hold on to this piece, as workers and visitors become unhinged, and even attempt to destroy the display. At one time a visitor managed to slice the painting with a knife.

Meet Yun Tang, The First Ever Human Barbie From China

Posted: 10 Apr 2014 03:46 PM PDT

Meet a new Asian Barbie Girl. Her name is Yun Tang and she is 19 years old. This Chinese Barbie, who's a student at Australia's Adelaide University, has made waves on both Chinese and Japanese websites with her striking doll-like resemblance.