luni, 9 iunie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Spanish 10-Year Bond Yield Lowest Since at Least 1789; Reflections on Absurd Risk Assumptions

Posted: 09 Jun 2014 08:47 PM PDT

Those searching for absurdity in government bonds can find it in a multitude of places.


For example, and via translation from Libre Mercado (courtesy of my friend Bran who lives in Spain) please note Spanish 10-Year Bond Yield is Lowest Since at Least 1789.
The interest rate offered on the secondary market for Spanish bonds maturing in ten years is at historic lows, below equivalent yield in U.S. treasuries, which has not happened since April 2010.

The evolution of Spanish debt is even more striking when viewed from a broader temporal perspective.



Today the Spanish 10-year bond is the lowest since at least 1789, the year of the French Revolution, as noted in the graph above. This is something unprecedented.
Great Bond Insanity

ZeroHedge picked up on this as well, in his post: The Great Insanity In Context (200 Years Of European Bonds), citing France and Italy as well as Spain.
As Deutsche's Jim Reid notes,

Draghi has certainly made a huge impact on financial markets as Friday saw some landmark levels hit across different assets.

Many European bond markets hit yield lows with quite a few hitting fresh multi-century all time lows and many others flirting close to them. 10 year French yields hit 1.654 intra-day which was the all-time low covering our entire data history back to 1746. 10 year Spanish yields also hit all time lows with our data going back to 1789. Italy has only been lower in yield for a few months in early 1945 (data back to 1808).
Reflections on Insane Risk Assumptions

Never has risk been so high and risk assumptions so low.

Spanish bonds are prices as if there is zero percent chance Spain leaves the Euurozone. Even if you believe the risk is low, I assure you it is non-zero.

And what about separatist movements in Spain. I guess that is a zero percent chance as well. It's the same for Italy. Apparently Beppe Grillo has a zero percent chance of getting his way in Italy.

Let's assume for a moment there is no chance of any of the above happening. What about further bailouts or more importantly bail-ins in Spain and Italy?

Are those zero percent risk as well? Apparently so.

Indeed, there is no risk anywhere in anything except gold, so go on margin and buy calls like the rest of the herd. You cannot lose (and that is exactly the same kind of central bank sponsored insanity that led to the housing crash and the global financial crisis).

I never thought it would come to this so soon again. How quick we all forget.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Steve Keen and Others Chime In On the Alleged Shortage of Skilled Workers; Musical Tribute

Posted: 09 Jun 2014 09:31 AM PDT

Here are a couple more interesting emails from readers in response to Is There a Shortage of Skilled Workers? My Own Personal Experiences.

Steve Keen Responds
Thanks mate--and you're spot-on.

People who suggest that education is the solution to unemployment, thus implying that it's the workers' fault  they're out of work, have no idea what is required to actually get an education or to work in the areas they're nominating as having "skill shortages". Most of these experts wouldn't know a skill if they fell over it.

I saw this all the time in the university sector. Bureaucrazy managers would waft away about "alternative modes of delivery" (a buzz-phrase from the late 1990s) as a way of reducing the costs of delivering tertiary education.

The amount of waste these morons generate as a result of their lack of knowledge of what skills really are is incredible. It's that and the burden of debt that explain the unemployment levels, not the inappropriate training of the workforce.

By the way, I've just been appointed Head of the School of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University in London--totally unexpected since these positions virtually always go to Neoclassicals. But they have hired me specifically to make it into a center for alternative thought in economics. I'll start here in July.

Best, Steve
Congratulations and best wishes to Professor Steve Keen

Useless Degree Holder Chimes In

UDH writes ...
Hello Mish,

I have been a steady reader of your site for many years and have always found your analysis pragmatic. I initially jumped into a 4-year school right out of high school and due to unfortunate circumstances I had to withdraw during my first year due to medical reasons (completely resolved now). The following year I took general classes at my local community college meant to satisfy prerequisite courses while I determined which career path and major was the way to go.

Long story short I found out about the FAA CTI program, and coincidentally in my state there is a 2 yr college that offers the degree (most are 4 year degrees paired with airport management), which if you meet the FAA standards you are able to apply to Air Traffic Control hiring panels. I worked hard and completed the 2yr degree in just over a year with a 3.8 cumulative GPA and a perfect score on the FAA aptitude test. I spent money on tuition, room and board to do so, it wasn't terribly expensive but expensive nonetheless.

In 2012, the FAA scrubbed the group I was eligible for. Then in fiscal year 2013, the FAA instituted a hiring freeze. They hiring panels are now open to the general public, but CTI students will not get preference, effectively making my degree worthless.

That there is exponentially more competition and no way to stand out of the stack is daunting to say the least.

So now, I have a worthless degree and if I have to go back to school the only degrees I am interested in are  mainly focused around STEM career fields.

I have heard estimates that 70% of new jobs in STEM fields will come from Computer Science. Coincidentally I live in Seattle, Washington which is the Forbes #1 ranked city for starting a tech career. In addition, there are 1,566 graduates each year (2yr and 4yr) for computer science but on average 2,700 new jobs requiring a BS in CS in my state each year.

However the total cost for me to finish out a BS CS degree would be roughly 27k (at 3.5% interest) total in debt for tuition/fees and 3 years of my time and I would also have to cover my living costs. That is "option A."

"Option B" is to join the Navy as a Cryptologic Technician for Networks (6 year active duty commitment) primarily a shore based job, finish as much school as I can while in, get as many certifications toward Cyber Security that I can (CISSP, CEH etc). Apply to the Seaman to Admiral (STA-21) and hope for the best and at worst come out with 2 years of school left, significant savings in the bank, possibly veterans preference, post 9/11 GI Bill and 6 years of cyber security experience and a Top Secret Clearance.

The catch is most civilian Cyber Security jobs are in some form dependent on government contracts and funding, the total size of the career field is 1/3rd of the expected new jobs for software development in the next 10 years. In addition there is no guarantee as to where I will be stationed and what my specific duties will be. Communication security or signals analyst experience is far less useful than computer network security experience. And the ability to take classes varies where stationed. The list of possible complications is endless.

On the surface it appears that going back to school is the long term way to go because it has higher earning potential and more job prospects. Conversely the military route guarantees me "related" cyber security experience and guarantees my education/living will be paid for and the funding and ability to re-locate anywhere after my service which may prove limited considering the concentration of Cyber Security in Washington DC.

I would really appreciate your feedback/thoughts if you have the time. I look forward to hearing from you.

Thank you!

Useless Degree Holder
Difficult Choice

In subsequent correspondence UDH stated he would only have to sign up for four years but "they really push people toward 6 year contracts".

I would not relish the choice of becoming a debt slave or joining the navy. I certainly would not fit in.

And I wonder how many do not really fit in, but select that option anyway.

The pressure to join the service must be intense on some folks who see no other realistic option of getting a college education.

Not to make light of this difficult choice, I do have a musical tribute.

In The Navy - The Village People



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


The Town with the Most Polar Bears

Posted: 09 Jun 2014 11:54 AM PDT

Do you want to see a polar bear up close? Just make your way to Churchhill, Manitoba. They've got more than a few polar bears living in town.





















Source

A Harsh Penalty for People Disobeying the No Parking Signs

Posted: 09 Jun 2014 09:48 AM PDT

These people all parked outside a city hospital in Russia and ignored the no parking signs around the area. They probably ended up really regretting it.


















Can You Name This Actor?

Posted: 09 Jun 2014 09:08 AM PDT

Do you know who this actor is? He's world famous and he's also a master of disguise. Who is it?






















He is actually very famous but it is hard to see here that this is actually Johnny Depp in character on the set of "Black Mass" where he is playing a famous Boston gangster.
 

















Making College Affordable

 
Here's what's going on at the White House today.
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

Making College Affordable

At a time where college has never been more important, it has also never been more expensive. So as part of his year of action to expand opportunity for all Americans, the President is working to make student debt more affordable and manageable to repay.

Today, he signed a memorandum directing the Secretary of Education to propose regulations that would allow nearly 5 million federal direct student loan borrowers to cap their loan payments at 10 percent of their income. The memorandum also outlines new actions to support federal student loan borrowers, especially vulnerable borrowers who may be at greater risk of defaulting on their loans.

Find out more about the President's actions to make college affordable.

And tomorrow, the President will take to Tumblr to answer your questions about education, college affordability, and reducing student loan debt. Learn how you can participate.

Making College More Affordable


 
 
  Top Stories

Weekly Address: Supporting America's Students

In this week's address, President Obama underscored the importance of helping to lift the burden of crushing student loan debt faced by too many Americans and highlighted the efforts he's taken to ensure we uphold America's commitment to provide a quality education for all who are willing to work for it.

READ MORE

The President's First-Ever Tumblr Q&A

Tomorrow, President Obama will take to Tumblr to answer your questions about education, college affordability, and reducing student loan debt.

READ MORE

West Wing Week: 6/6/14 or, "Dispatches: Europe"

Last week, President Obama embarked on a three country tour, which took him to Poland, Belgium, and France. If you haven't already, you'll want to check out this very European West Wing Week.

READ MORE


 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

10:00 AM: The President and Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:50 AM: The President meets with nurses to discuss immigration reform

12:30 PM: Press Briefing by Principal Deputy Press Secretary Josh Earnest

1:15 PM: The Vice President will attend an event for Governor Maggie Hassan

1:45 PM: The President delivers remarks and signs a Presidential Memorandum on reducing the burden of student loan debt

2:40 PM: The President meets with governors of Western States via video teleconference

4:15 PM: The President welcomes the NCAA Champion UConn Huskies to honor the Men's and Women's Basketball teams and their 2014 NCAA Championships WATCH LIVE


 

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The Hidden Power of Nofollow Links

The Hidden Power of Nofollow Links


The Hidden Power of Nofollow Links

Posted: 08 Jun 2014 04:23 PM PDT

Posted by nicoleckohler

A few years ago, while I was still on the client side of things, I received an email from a blogger I was working with. As part of our fledgling link building program, my company had been sending out free products in exchange for a review and link to our site. Oldest trick in the book, right? However, the blogger's email threw me off: she told me her policy was to nofollow links, and asked if this would be all right.

"Uh, sure," I eloquently responded, having absolutely no idea what she was talking about, "just as long as there's a link!" I then scrambled to look up just what in the heck a nofollow link was, and roughly five minutes later started cursing at my monitor. We'd just invested thirty bucks in a completely useless link!

While that may have been my viewpoint back then, my opinion on nofollow links has changed. Obviously, for those of us who are trying to earn links for our clients, receiving a nofollow link can feel like a slap in the face. But these links have hidden powers that make them just as important as followed ones.

Here's why nofollow links are more powerful than you might think.

Links build awareness

A link has a few different connotations these days. It could mean, "this is an article that supports my viewpoint, and you might benefit by reading it, too." It could mean, "I do a lot of shopping here, and I think you should look at their cute dresses." Or it could simply mean, "I like cat videos!" But at its very core, a link is designed to create awareness of something on a different page.

When you're out there trying to make people aware of your business, links are hugely important. SEO companies now offer link building services because businesses realize how important they are. So to that busy CEO who sees his or her website traffic dipping, and believes that links will give them a way to get back on top, a successful link building campaign is going to be really desirable.

That busy CEO is probably going to flip out if you say "well, we got 50 new links this month, and 40 of them were nofollow." But it's important that neither you nor the CEO (nor their marketing team) discredit the power of a nofollow link. Links still build awareness, as long as they are seen. They don't have to be followed. They probably don't even have to be clicked! They just have to be visible.

How many times a day do you see someone you follow tweet a link to an article with an interesting headline? Let's say the article is really well written, and is on a site you don't currently follow. So you add them to your feed reader. A week later, you think "oh, you know, that post I read is really relevant to this blog post I'm working on now!" So you link to it in your post. This accomplishes two things: one, it probably negates that original nofollow link from Twitter (more on that shortly), and two, it has made both you and your followers aware of that site.

Links lead to profit

A nofollow link can also directly lead to someone spending money on your company's products or services. If you consistently create awareness and engage with people, those nofollow links may earn you way more than domain authority. Don't believe me? Here's the story of how I became a paying Buffer customer.

A few months ago, I saw a tweet with a link to this case study about how Buffer responded to being hacked. I had no idea what Buffer was, but it gave me an idea for a blog post. After I wrote my post, I followed Buffer on Twitter. I engaged with them a few times (for example, mentioning them after my post went up), and they engaged right back.

Over the next few weeks, I visited the Buffer blog when they tweeted links to new posts, learned about their company, and admired the heck out of their content marketing skills. I'd say it was at about the two month mark that I decided to actually give them a try. A month later, I upgraded to the Awesome plan and began using it daily to manage not only my accounts, but also our agency's accounts.

To recap, this is how it all went down:

  1. I became aware of Buffer through someone else's Twitter link
  2. I followed Buffer on Twitter
  3. I engaged with their content
  4. I tried, subscribed, and ended up forking over $10 a month (well worth it!)

This was all because of a single nofollow link. Over the course of three months, my general awareness turned into lifetime value for Buffer. That one nofollow link directly led to profit.

You can make an equation out of this:

a + e = p

Awareness + engagement = profit. By becoming aware of Buffer, and having opportunities to engage regularly with them, I converted into a paying customer. This all happened because of social media, and all those links you see on social media are nofollow. (Who said there's no ROI in Twitter?!)

Links lead to more links

A few years ago, Joshua Unseth wrote a post for YouMoz explaining how a single nofollow link earned him a second link that was followed, increased his traffic, and boosted his article to the top of the SERPs for a specific phrase. His post, titled "The Importance of nofollow Links," has a really great conclusion that stresses the importance of even a single link:

To put it into context, of the people that came to the article as a direct or indirect result of the nofollow, ~1% made a comment on the article itself, and ~2% blogged about it – actually, if you count this article, then the results were blogged about by 3% of the visitors.

While I don't think that these numbers would hold on a site with more viewers, I think that they represent the way in which content ends up going viral. In the end, ALL IT TAKES IS ONE LINK, and its follow status doesn't seem to make a difference.

I couldn't say it any better! What Joshua wrote still holds true today – and in fact may be even truer, considering how many of us use Twitter to amplify messages and blog posts we enjoy, or rely on a feed reader to provide us with interesting content that we want to share on our websites.

Here's a real-life example of the potential power of a single nofollow link. Back in March, we published two maps showing the ISP landscape in the United States, and how the potential Comcast buyout of Time-Warner would affect it. The post was picked up by the Amazing_Maps Twitter account, which has more than 160,000 followers.

This was a nofollow link, obviously, as were the retweets that followed.

Two days later, we made it to the front page of the Huffington Post.

After HuffPo picked up the story, the maps spread to several other websites, most of which had followed links back to our blog post or homepage. But even if those links hadn't been followed, we still would have created new awareness of WebpageFX, our blog, and the work we do.

Like Joshua said: it only takes one. One link can lead to many.

How to make the most of your nofollow links

"Okay, Nicole," I can hear you skeptics saying, "I'm on board. nofollow links are powerful. Magical, even. But you don't see any of my tweets getting picked up by HuffPo."

Well, food for thought: we've published hundreds of blog posts, and only one of them led to a Twitter link (not ours) that led to HuffPo. Success on the Internet is all about being at the right place with the right content at the right time, and with all of the blogs, websites, and companies vying for attention, your chance at getting noticed is lower than low.

Here are some ways that you can make the most of your nofollow links, whether they're on social media, someone's blog, or elsewhere.

Motivate viewers to click your link. This might mean testing headlines, trying different tweets, or coming right out and saying, "look, if you click this, this cool thing will happen." For example, Buffer found that one tweet earned a blog post 100% more clicks than another, just because they changed the language surrounding the link.

Increase your audience. Want more people to see, click, and act on your nofollow link? Get a bigger audience. This may be as simple as following industry figureheads who are likely to follow you back, directly asking for shares, or sharing your post multiple times. Try emailing people of authority and asking (nicely) for them to check out your content. If it's really good, it may earn you a share.

Another trick: if you write blog posts or product content that references someone else, make sure they know about it. It may seem like you're just trying to stroke their ego, but it works. If someone wrote a blog post about me, heck yeah I'd tweet the link out to everybody I knew! (Unless it was bad. Then I'd just cry.)

Ensure your link is relevant. This, in my opinion, is one of the most important aspects of a nofollow link. So many links on social media go unclicked simply because the content isn't relevant to them. This one is hard to control, because it's pretty difficult to know when your audience is going to be in the mood for your blog posts vs. photos of puppies, but you can still get ahead by thinking very carefully about what you share, when, and why.

Make sure your content is relevant, too. Okay, so your link got clicked. Great! But your bounce rate is at 99%. Not great. You can write the best headline in the world, but if the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is empty, nobody's going to stick around. Avoid misleading headlines, unfulfilling content, or just plain marketing to the wrong people.

This is honestly the biggest flaw of the ISP map I linked above. Lots of people checked out the maps, and even visited our blog to see the rest of the study, but then they left. Probably 99% of our visitors to that post have no idea who WebpageFX is and what we do. That doesn't mean the content was bad, but it just wasn't relevant to the kind of audience we want to attract (that is, potential clients).

Optimize your landing pages. What do you want someone to do after they visit your link? What's the next step for this visitor? Keep them around a little longer. Use a related posts plugin to provide some additional reading, or try a service like snip.ly to suggest relevant content or links.

Don't complain. If someone gives you a link and it's nofollow, please don't storm into their inbox with guns blazing. Maybe they just don't know you well enough to follow your links yet. If you're cool about it, the second link they give you may be a followed one. And even if it isn't, you're still getting exposure out of it, right?

A nofollow link isn't the end of the world

As SEO professionals, I know we're all aiming for followed links that pass a lot of "juice" to the websites of our clients. If we all had our way, earning links would be easy, every link would be followed, and Google would never, ever penalize websites for having too many links, or too many links of a certain type. We would all have millions of dollars, and would spend our days on the beach drinking fancy cocktails. Unfortunately... that's just not the way things are.

Honestly, a nofollow link isn't the end of the world, either for you or for a client. These links are valuable, and important for anyone trying to build their brand online. As I've shown, they hold significant power, and more than you might expect.

Instead of focusing on whether or not a link is followed, we should do our best to get those links in front of the right people at the right time, crafting content beyond the link that motivates conversions. As it is for everything in SEO, obtaining links is all about balance: the balance between followed and not followed, "juicy" links and dry ones.

In my case, that nofollow link I talked about at the beginning of this post went live, the blogger was happy with her product, and the review she wrote was fantastic. It led to a fairly high amount of clicks through to our site… and what do you know, even a few purchases. Seeing was believing for me, and now I'm an advocate of earning links in general – not just the followed ones.

Image Credit: Public domain images from Pixabay (links, beach); cat screencap from Maru's YouTube channel (http://www.youtube.com/user/mugumogu); Twitter & snip.ly screencaps I took; Buffer blog (source linked in post)


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