Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 01 Jul 2012 09:07 PM PDT The global economy led by Europe and China continues its downward path. Will the US follow? First let's take a look at China. Markit reports China Manufacturing PMI Declines 8th Consecutive Month. Key pointsChina PMI vs. Shanghai Stock Index The following charts show an interesting story of unsustainable growth and over-exuberance by China cheerleaders nearly everywhere. China PMI $SSEC Shanghai Stock Index Decoupling Review Notice the bubble in 2007. That's when all sorts of ridiculous decoupling theories, US hyperinflation scenarios, US treasury crash scenarios, crude is going to $200, Natural Gas is going to $40, and other nonsensical ideas came out of the woodwork, many in book form, some still persisting to this day. Instead, the reverse happened! It was the US that decoupled from the global economy. Moreover, China has been exposed for the malinvestment bubble that it is. Now, in 2012, nearly everyone but the die-hard hyperinflationists thinks the US will decouple from the global economy. This reverse-decoupling idea is primarily based on the absurd belief the Fed will not let the economy or the stock market down (when the Fed is in fact not in control). For further discussion, please see Is There a Limit on Central Bank's Ability to Inflate? The debate on the Fed will remain, but the facts show that I disagreed with decoupling in 2007 and I disagree with reverse-decoupling theories now. Please see 12 Reasons US Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly) for detailed rationale. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Email From Lead Analyst at EIA on Petroleum Usage Posted: 01 Jul 2012 11:27 AM PDT In response to my post 3-Month Petroleum Usage Chart for March, April, May Shows 14 Years of Supply Demand Growth has Vanished (with charts from Tim Wallace) I received a nice email from James Beck, Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Status Report Team, Energy Information Administration (EIA). Hello Mike and TimJet Fuel and Propane In a follow-up email I asked about jet fuel and received this response. Hello MishMonthly Delays The reason Tim Wallace uses weekly data is one of timeliness. There are long delays in waiting for monthly stats. It is nice to see that the monthly charts below confirm what Tim Wallace has been saying. Here are the monthly charts from James Beck. Because of seasonal variations, the proper comparison in each of the charts below is red-dot to red-dot. Total Petroleum Usage Diesel and Heating Oil Gasoline Jet Fuel Propane Thanks James and Tim! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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