Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- EU Doesn't Like Its Forecasts, So It Removes Them From Its Site
- Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics
- Italians Head to Voting Booths, Election Ends 9:00AM EST Monday; Surge for Grillo and "The Apathy Factor" Will Doom Bersani Coalition
| EU Doesn't Like Its Forecasts, So It Removes Them From Its Site Posted: 24 Feb 2013 08:24 PM PST With thanks to Yogi Berra, making predictions is hard, especially about the future. And with constantly revised forecasts for the EU, the European Commission decides the safe safe thing to do is Eliminate Forecasts for 2015. Via Google Translate from El Economista ... This morning you could see the data for 2012, 2103, 2014 and 2015, but now can only see the figures from 2011 to 2014 and there is no trace of the catastrophic 2015 numbers (see the screenshots attached below).Sooner or Later El Economista has some interesting snapshots of the removed estimates. To be completely fair, the original posting may have been a simple mistake. Regardless, I suggest the EU forecast for 2014 is too optimistic. Will the EU 2014 estimates be revised lower as well? If not soon, then expect revisions later, with France leading the way lower. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 24 Feb 2013 07:02 PM PST Here is an interesting video that came my way via reader "Nino". It's a look at some rather amazing technology that is developing right now, and I suspect very few are aware of it. Link if video does not play: Quadrocopter Pole Acrobatics The video shows a quadrocopter capable of dynamically balancing an inverted pendulum (a stick weighted at the bottom), but also flipping the stick to another quadrocopter that determines the optimal position to catch it without losing balance. Technology marches on whether anyone is aware or not. People do become aware as markets for technology develop. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 24 Feb 2013 10:58 AM PST Voting booths are open in Italy though 3:00PM Monday (9:00AM EST). Exit polls will trickle in soon after but early exit polls could be misleading. If the result is close we may not know for over a day. The Wall Street Journal offers this Italian Election Guide. Italian voters can cast ballots Sunday and until 0900 ET Monday, after which exit polls will provide quick but approximate insight into the probable result of the election.Shift Has Taken Place The Journal says "unless Italy's 51 million eligible voters shifted dramatically in recent days, Mr. Bersani should win a plurality." I suggest such a shift has taken place. The open question regards turnout and apathy, not a shift, per se. Loser's Penalty In the Chamber (the lower House of parliament) the party with the largest plurality in the national vote gets a majority (54%) of the seats. In the Senate (the upper chamber of parliament) each of Italy's 17 regions operate independently. The winner of each region gets a majority (55%) of the region's seats. There are 315 seats in the Senate. Lombardy, Italy's largest region gets 49 seats and the winner will take 27 seats (55%). The other parties will split the remaining 22. Second place may only get 10. The Journal sums it up this way. "If Mr. Bersani wins all 17 regions, his coalition will have 178 seats and a commanding upper-house majority. However, if he loses Lombardy, the most populuous region, he will have only 162 seats. If he wins Lombardy but loses Veneto – a near certainty given polling trends – and also loses Sicily – to Mr. Grillo rather than Mr. Berlusconi – the center-left will have 159 Senate seats, a razor-thin majority." Not So Fast I am not convinced Bersani wins the Chamber, let alone the Senate. Some 22-25% of Italians were undecided in the election polls before blackout two weeks ago. Since then, I suggest (based on crowd turnout and social media comments) that there has been a surge for Beppe Grillio and Silvio Berlusconi. The last election polls before the blackout look like this:
Given the number of undecided voters, Bersani can easily drop 3% or more (and I suspect more). If Berlusconi and/or Grillo gets a huge percent of the undecided votes, Bersani can easily drop to second or even third place. Senate Coalition Unlikely Monti is a lost cause and I doubt he gets more than 10%, making a Senate coalition unlikely if not impossible. I commented on the possibility of a win by Berlusconi or Grillo in Germany Warns Against "Silvio the Savior" (And That May Backfire); Fake Horse Race Odds Get Around Blackouts. Reader "AC" who is from Italy but now lives in France writes ... Hi MishThe Apathy Factor I expect a surge of voter enthusiasm for Grillo that will take votes away from Bersani and Berlusconi. Somewhat paradoxically, I also expect a surge in apathy where voters stay home. The apathy I refer to is not on the Grillo or Berlusconi side, but apathy for Bersani and Monti. Certainly the campaign by Monti is anemic. Thus, unless there is a late surge of energy for Bersani (and I highly doubt there is), Bersani is going to come up short. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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