Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Posted: 16 Sep 2013 01:29 PM PDT Common sense won out twice in Wisconsin in the past two weeks. On September 11, Wisconsin Act 10 upheld in another federal court challenge. A federal judge on Wednesday dismissed one of the lawsuits challenging Act 10, Gov. Scott Walker's budget repair bill in 2011 that eliminated most collective bargaining powers held by Wisconsin public unions.It goes to reason that if government does not have to listen to the union, then the union is useless. Acting in advance of the ruling, Wisconsin's Third Largest Teachers Union Decertified on August 31st. Vincent Vernuccio, Director of Labor Policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, told the MacIver News Service, "recertification is needed to keep unions responsible to their members and to allow the change necessary to remove ineffectual representation. It is simply democracy and majority rule."Bingo. No one should be forced to join a union to get a job. And no one should have to pay union dues either. People can still join unions if they want. So there are no legitimate rights lost. I commend Governor Scott Walker. And the school children of Wisconsin as well as taxpayers are already benefiting. Teachers can now teach, educators do not have to bargain with bullies, and teachers can put more money in their pockets instead of contributing to unions. Actual Results Actual results speak for themselves as Union curbs rescue a Wisconsin school district. The Kaukauna School District, in the Fox River Valley of Wisconsin near Appleton, has about 4,200 students and about 400 employees. It has struggled in recent times and this year faced a deficit of $400,000. But after the law went into effect, at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday, school officials put in place new policies they estimate will turn that $400,000 deficit into a $1.5 million surplus. And it's all because of the very provisions that union leaders predicted would be disastrous.Elimination of Collective Bargaining is the Single Best Thing one Can do for School Kids As I said on July 2, 2011 Union-Busting is a "Godsend"; Elimination of Collective Bargaining is the Single Best Thing one Can do for School Kids Also consider Collective Bargaining neither a Privilege nor a Right. I commend Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker for his brave stand to end slavery in Wisconsin. I also commend Senator Rand Paul's effort in pursuing a national "right-to-work" law. It is time to abolish collective-bargaining slavery once and for all. A properly written national "right-to-work" law would help do just that. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
CSU Receives 49% in Bavaria State Election; Assessing the National Impact for Merkel on September 22 Posted: 16 Sep 2013 09:27 AM PDT CSU soared to an absolute majority in the Bavaria state election. The results look like this +- 0.2% or so.
Majority for CSU Freie Waehler is the Bavaria Eurosceptic party and Die Grünen is the Green Party. Inquiring minds may be wondering how 48.7% constitutes a majority. It does because majorities are based on the percentage in government, not the percentage of voters. Recall that the threshold for participation is 5%. For determining parliamentary majorities, CSU received over 50% of the votes that count (the first four groups above). The National Election Outlook Assessing FDP Chances of Making Parliament If these results hold for the national elections on September 22, FDP may very well be out, as I have suggested on numerous occasions. Assessing AfD Chances of Making Parliament AdP did not run in the Bavaria election. However, the vote looks good for AfD because most of the Freie Waehler voters will likely support AfD in the national elections. Assessing CDU/CSU Chances Alone It is possible CDU/CSU does not need any coalition (grand or otherwise). The math would look something like this
In that scenario, it would be 43:40 (again discarding everything below the 5% threshold), with no need to form a coalition. Assessing the Red-Green Chances The odds of SPD + Die Grünen without Die Linke are zero. The odds of SPD + Die Grünen + Die Linke are shrinking. The Green Party once had 15% of the vote but may not get 10%. Combine that with the fact that SPD did worse than expected in Bavaria. If neither FDP nor AfD makes it into parliament, and if SPD can get 26-28% of the vote, and if both the Greens and the Left get 9% or more, then the Red-Green coalition with Die Linke can achieve a majority. That seems like a long shot now, but it is not impossible. Much will depend on voter turnout combined with complacency setting in for CDU/CSU combined with apathy for the smaller parties. Even IF SPD + Die Grünen + Die Linke can form a mathematical majority, both SPD and the Greens would have to be willing to form a coalition with Die Linke. That is not out of the question, but party leaders have said they won't. Are such statements believable or not? Assessing a Non-Grand Coalition
Assessing the Grand Coalition If none of the above happens, a "Grand Coalition" of CDU/CSU + SPD will happen. So what has changed since before the Bavaria election? Not much. There are still many scenarios in which there is no "Grand Coalition". Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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