luni, 2 februarie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It?
Diving Into the ISM: What's It All Mean?
Total Construction Spending Weaker Than Expected; Residential Construction Spending in Contraction
Debt of Six Eurozone Countries Exceeds 100% of GDP, Two More Coming in 2015 (France and Spain)
Four Trade War Questions; PMI Reports; Currency Manipulation Charges

Fed Study Shows "Persistent Fed Overoptimism about Economic Growth"; What Will They Do About It?

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 06:06 PM PST

Since 2007 nearly every Fed economic forecast has been on the optimistic side.

In an attempt to explain, a new Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco dives into the Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth.

My friend "BC" commented "It has taken 7-8 years for Fed economists to get around to this brilliant insight."

I provide the real reasons following this excerpt from the report ...

Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth. Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but then are revised down over time as the incoming data continue to disappoint. Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data.

Explaining the persistent overoptimism

Economic forecasting can be a humbling endeavor. In a cross-country study of private-sector forecasts from 1989 to 1998, Loungani (2001) finds that "the record of failure to predict recessions is virtually unblemished." He also finds that forecast revisions in one direction tend to be followed by further revisions in the same direction and that one-year-ahead growth forecasts are typically too optimistic.

Implications for economic models

Research has identified numerous instances of persistent bias in the track records of professional forecasters. These findings apply not only to forecasts of growth, but also of inflation and unemployment (Coibion and Gorodnichencko 2012). Overall, the evidence raises doubts about the theory of "rational expectations." This theory, which is the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics, assumes that peoples' forecasts exhibit no systematic bias towards optimism or pessimism. Allowing for departures from rational expectations in economic models would be a way to more accurately capture features of real-world behavior

An updated study by Ahir and Loungani (2014) finds that the private-sector's record of failure to predict recessions remained intact through 2008 and 2009. A study by Alessi, et al. (2014) finds that one-year-ahead growth forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the European Central Bank from 2008 to 2012 exhibited substantial overoptimism, averaging 1.6 to 2.4 percentage points above actual growth. The SEP growth forecasts fit the pattern of these various studies.

What Will They Do About It?

That question is easy to answer: absolutely nothing. There is a systemic bias towards optimism from economists in general, not just central banks.

I have mentioned that numerous times in recent years, even after it was long understood the recession of 2007-2009 was a balance-sheet recession.

For example, on January 6, I noted Economists Upbeat Despite 4th Consecutive Decline in Factory Orders; Auto Orders vs. Expectations.

Economists are among the most optimistic groups on the planet. Year in, year out they project improvements in growth.

So today, despite 4th Consecutive Decline in Factory Orders, it's no surprise that economists remain optimistic.

Private Pep Rally

On January 29, Fed Chair Janet Yellen met with Senate Democrats at a private luncheon. She told the Democrats that the U.S. Economy is Strong.

"She went through the issues of unemployment and inflation. Very positive. And economic growth numbers were good, have been good. There's work to be done," Sen. Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) said after the luncheon.

Could the Fed be rear-view mirror forecasting once again? I think so. Third quarter GDP rebounded strongly, so Yellen did what economists do, project strength into the future. Somehow this tendency is one-sided. Economists seldom project weakness the same way.

Diving Into the Details

On January 31, I went Diving Into the 4th Quarter GDP Report and noticed some ominous trends.

On February 1, I made a pretty bold statement Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015.

Today, I noted Total Construction Spending Weaker Than Expected; Residential Construction Spending in Contraction.

Also today, but something I did not comment on, U.S. Consumer Spending in December Weakest Since 2009.

U.S. consumer spending recorded its biggest decline since late 2009 in December with households saving the extra cash from cheaper gasoline.

Other data on Monday showed factory activity cooled in January, suggesting the economy may have entered the new year on a slightly softer footing than had been expected.

Nevertheless, upbeat and cash-flush consumers are expected to step-up spending and buoy the economy this year.

"The consumer is poised to do well in early 2015. Lower gasoline prices are going to provide a big lift to consumption," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Reasons for Optimism

Missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis
Overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession
Natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data.

Comment on Reason #1

Bernanke like Greenspan could not see the obvious. This is a general statement. Buildup of imbalances has nothing to do with it. Neither Greenspan nor Bernanke could spot bubbles.

Janet Yellen right now is virtually blind as a bat. She cannot see the bubbles in bonds and equities the Fed created. When those bubbles burst, the slowdown should smack some sense into the Fed, but it won't. Moreover, the bigger this equity bubble gets, the bigger the crash. The Fed cannot see that either.

Comment on Reason #2

These arrogant fools actually believe they are economic wizards who can steer the economy like a truck on a highway. The idea that central banks can set interest rates is as faulty as Russian central planners can correctly set the price of oranges. But that's what they believe.

Comment on Reason #3

They are extrapolating 3rd quarter GDP into the future again right now. They miss the bond and equity bubbles, factory orders, and countless other things. All strong reports are thought to be representative. All weak reports are deemed to be a "soft patch".

Judging from the "strong economy" statement of Yellen, the Fed seems to believe the US will "decouple" from the clearly slowing global economy. It has for a while, but it cannot last.

Too Much Fail in Models

Here is the first of two bonus reasons to help explain overoptimism:

The Fed (economists in general) have far too much faith in economic models and far too little common sense. The economy cannot be driven like a truck. Fat tails appear far more than theory suggests. Why? Because many widely-held theories are complete nonsense.

Anyone recall the widespread belief people would not walk away from their homes? And what about the idiotic Keynesian theory that recessions and inflation could not happen at the same time.

Economists widely believed that bit of nonsense. Yet, instead of abandoning Keynesian theories, they went further down the rabbit hole to explain things.

System Runs on Lies

Here's a final bonus explanation the San Francisco Fed failed to mention: Good news sells. People do not like the truth. They would rather hear lies. And the Fed is willing to provide lies, especially in difficult times.

The entire system runs on lies such as

Pro-forma data
Beat-the-street nonsense where corporations provide analysts with numbers the corporations know they can beat by a penny
Analysts are more than willing to downgrade expectations to help corporations beat-the-street

When it Becomes Serious

The Fed does not want an audit? What pray tell does it have to hide?

European politician Jean Claude Juncker summed it up nicely: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie".

And so the Fed does. Sometimes, as a matter of arrogant belief in their own wizardry, they even start to believe the lies they tell.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Diving Into the ISM: What's It All Mean?

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 02:09 PM PST

This morning the Institute for Supply Management released its much followed Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

Index	Jan	Dec	PP Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend in Months
PMI®	53.5	55.5	-1.6	Growing	Slower	20
New Orders	52.9	57.8	-4.9	Growing	Slower	20
Production	56.5	57.7	-1.2	growing	Slower	11
Employment	54.1	56.0	-1.9	Growing	Slower	19
Supplier Deliveries	52.9	58.6	-5.7	Slowing	Slower	20
Inventories	51.0	45.5	5.5	Growing	From Contracting	1
Customers' Inventories	42.5	44.5	-2.0	Too Low	Faster	2
Prices	35.0	38.5	-3.5	Decreasing	Faster	3
Backlog of Orders	46.0	52.5	-6.5	Contracting	From Growing	1
Exports	49.5	52.0	-2.5	Contracting	From Growing	1
Imports	55.5	55.0	0.5	Growing	Faster	24

What's It Mean?

The PMI is a diffusion index. Numbers above 50 indicate expansion, numbers below 50 indicate contraction.

A key problem with diffusion indices is the size of the company does not matter. For example, a chemical company with 300 employees carries the same weight as an auto manufacturer with 200,000 employees.

Moreover, there are some peculiarities with the break-even number of 50.

The ISM says A PMI® in excess of 43.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January PMI® indicates growth for the 68th consecutive month in the overall economy, and indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 20th consecutive month. Holcomb stated, "The past relationship between the PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the PMI® for January (53.5 percent) corresponds to a 3.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

Thus, a manufacturing PMI above or below 50, does not imply similar overall economic activity as one might expect. Also, month-to-month changes show a lot a variances so it's important to look at trends over a longer period of time.

Manufacturing ISM Historical

The NBER (the historical arbiter of when recessions start and end) says a US recession began in November of 1973. The Manufacturing ISM was 68.1 at the time.

The above chart also shows some recessions began with the manufacturing PMI in negative territory. In isolation, the PMI itself does not say a lot. One needs to incorporate other data.

Manufacturing ISM Percent Change From Year Ago

Upturns from deeply negative tend to end recessions (purple circles), but spikes below the zero-growth tend line don't necessarily mean anything.

There were 10 occasions since 1950 in which the year-over-year growth of manufacturing PMI sunk to -20% that were not associated with a recession.

On the other hand, the chart shows that recessions generally start with the PMI near the zero-growth line. In those occasions where recessions started with PMIs well above 50, the PMI quickly crashed into negative territory.

Manufacturing ISM Percent Change From Year Ago Detail

Far too much reliance is given to these indicators, even though flirting around the zero-line is generally not associated with high growth.

The Manufacturing ISM is now at a spot where recessions frequently begin. Yet, far more often than not, recessions do not begin at this spot.

Nonetheless, please note the weakening trends in the table at the top.

Exports are slowing
Imports are up
Prices falling rapidly
Backlog of orders in contraction
Growth slowing nearly everywhere
Customer inventories rising

None of those imply strong growth.

The ISM says today's report "corresponds to a 3.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis". I will take the under for numerous reasons stated previously.

For more GDP look-ahead analysis, please see ...

January 31: Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends - Yellen Yap - Decoupling or Not?
February 02: Total Construction Spending Weaker Than Expected; Residential Construction Spending in Contraction
February 02: Four Trade War Questions; PMI Reports; Currency Manipulation Charges

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Total Construction Spending Weaker Than Expected; Residential Construction Spending in Contraction

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 11:22 AM PST

Construction spending for December was weaker than expected. Lots of reports recently have been "weaker than expected". From Bloomberg.

Highlights

Construction outlays rebounded 0.4 percent in December after dipping 0.2 percent the month before. December was below market expectations which were for a 0.6 percent gain.

December's increase was led by public outlays which rebounded 1.1 percent after dropping 1.8 percent jump in November. Private residential spending rose 0.3 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in November. Private nonresidential construction spending eased 0.2 percent in December after a 0.8 percent rise the month before.

On a year-ago basis, total outlays were up 2.2 percent in December compared to 2.7 percent in November.

Recent History Of This Indicator

Construction spending slipped 0.3 percent in November after a sharp 1.2 percent rebound in October. Market expectations were for a 0.5 percent gain. November's decrease was led by public outlays which fell 1.7 percent after a 2.8 percent jump in October. Private residential spending rose 0.9 percent, matching the pace the month before. Private nonresidential construction spending dipped 0.3 percent in November after edging up 0.1 percent in October.

Total Construction Spending Percent Change From Year Ago

click on any chart for sharper image

This is another trend that looks ominous. Year-over-year growth in total construction spending has fallen from 8% in February of 2014 to 2% in December.

Commercial Construction Spending Percent Change From Year Ago

Residential Construction Spending Percent Change From Year Ago

Residential construction spending will be a net contraction from 1st quarter GDP unless the trend reverses soon. But why should it? And if residential drops deep enough, total construction spending will subtract from 1st quarter GDP.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Debt of Six Eurozone Countries Exceeds 100% of GDP, Two More Coming in 2015 (France and Spain)

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 10:48 AM PST

In 2014 there were six eurozone countries whose debt-to-GDP ratio went over the 100% threshold. Two additional countries will pass that barrier in 2015.

The Maastricht Treaty on which the euro was founded was designed to keep "sound fiscal policies", with debt limited to 60% of GDP (not 100%), and annual deficits no greater than 3% of GDP."

Every country in the eurozone, including Germany, has been in violation of those rules. Let's take a look at the biggest violators as reported by El Economista. Data is from second quarter of 2014 (undoubtedly worse now).

100% Debt-to-GDP List

Italy 133%
Portugal 129.4%
Ireland 116.7%
Cyprus 112.2%
Belgium 105.1%
Greece 174.9%
Spain 100.3% (2015 estimate)
France 100% (2015 estimate)

In regards to France, Laurent Bigorgne, director of the Institut Montaigne, predict that French liabilities will not stabilize, but will continue to progress."

That certainly seems like a very safe prediction.

Wild Blue Yonder

And as debts soar off into the wild blue yonder, the need to keep interest rates at 0% to perpetually mask the problem increases.

I offer this musical tribute to celebrate the Keynesian policies that perpetuate wild blue yonder government spending and absurd central bank policies.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Four Trade War Questions; PMI Reports; Currency Manipulation Charges

Posted: 01 Feb 2015 11:47 PM PST

With the declining yen, Japan's manufacturing PMI has risen eight months. In contrast, China has been wavering near the stagnation line since early 2011.

Trade war questions relate to the just-released PMI reports and also the 4th quarter US GDP report. Let's start with today's PMI releases on China and Japan.

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI shows Chinese Operating Conditions Deteriorate Fractionally in January.

Chinese manufacturers saw a fractional deterioration in operating conditions at the start of 2015. Although output rose slightly and new orders broadly stabilised, staffing levels were cut for the fifteenth successive month. Meanwhile, relatively subdued client demand led companies to reduce their stock holdings of both post and pre-production goods in January. On the costs front, lower raw material prices led to the steepest reduction in average input costs since March 2009, which contributed to a sharp decline in prices charged.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) posted at 49.7 in January, down slightly from the earlier flash reading (49.8), but up fractionally from 49.6 in December. This signalled a second successive monthly deterioration in the health of the sector, albeit only slight.

Latest data indicated a renewed expansion of Chinese manufacturing output in January, though the rate of increase was only fractional. This was the first time that production has risen in three months.

Manufacturing companies reduced their headcounts again in January. That said, the rate of job shedding was the weakest recorded in 15 months and only slight.

China Manufacturing PMI Index

China's manufacturing PMI has been flirting just above and just below the stagnation line since early 2011. More time has been spent in contraction than expansion in that period.

Japan Posts "Solid" Growth

In contrast to China, the Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI shows solid production growth at start of 2015.

Key Points

Headline PMI posts above 50.0 for eighth month running
Further increases in output and new orders
Inflationary pressures remain amid reports of yen depreciation

Summary

Data at the start of 2015 signalled a solid improvement in operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing sector. Production growth continued for the sixth month running, supported by a further rise in new orders. Subsequently, payroll numbers remained in growth territory, with the latest expansion broadly in-line with the previous month. Meanwhile, upward pressures on both input and output prices remained.

The headline PMI posted at 52.2 in January, little changed from 52.0 in December and above the 50.0 no-change mark for the eight month running, thereby signalling sustained growth in the Japanese manufacturing sector at the start of 2015.

Panellists attributed the latest increase to a combination of improved advertising, stronger demand conditions and the launching of new products. Similarly, new orders from abroad rose in January.

Japan Manufacturing PMI

Four Trade War Questions

How long will China let Japan debase the Yen without a response?
How long before US manufacturers whine about loss of exports?
Will exports add to or subtract from US GDP next quarter?
Will the US economy decouple from the global economy?

1A. China will not let Japan (and increasingly Europe) get the upper hand forever. China will soon take strong action to reduce the value of the yuan.

2A. Manufacturers will start whining loudly if they are not already. Expect to see currency manipulation charges in the news again soon. Those charges will escalate as soon as China responds to Bank of Japan and ECB moves to reduce the value of the yen and euro.

3A. Subtract. Not only are US exports getting more expensive relative to Europe and Japan, the entire rest of the global economy is slowing rapidly.

Our biggest trading partner is Canada, and Canada is in recession, with a rapidly sinking Canadian dollar on top of it. (See Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015)

4A. No. The US will not decouple as economists assume.

Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends

I addressed questions three and four in more detail in my Saturday, January 31 post: Diving Into the GDP Report - Some Ominous Trends - Yellen Yap - Decoupling or Not?

There's much more analysis of autos, imports, inventories, and other US GDP factors in the above link, including a discussion of US recession possibilities. Please give it a look if you missed it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

All These Snaps And You Still Won't Chat

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 10:00 AM PST

via imgur

This Pitbull-Dachshund Crossbreed Rami

Posted: 02 Feb 2015 09:30 AM PST

Rami the dog is a cross between a pitbull and a dachshund. Hw is being offered for adoption by the Moultrie Colquitt County Humane Society in the state of Georgia in the U.S.

via facebook

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How to Approach Owned and Earned Media - Moz Blog

How to Approach Owned and Earned Media - Moz Blog
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How to Approach Owned and Earned Media

Posted on: Monday 02 February 2015 — 00:16

Posted by SamuelScott

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of Moz, Inc.

Image: Flickr user nickrate

We all know content is king, but if your content marketing plan consists of blindly publishing daily blog posts on your website or submitting countless bylined articles (i.e., guest posts) to random outlets, your king will turn into the court jester.

Marketing must have a sound strategy behind it to be successful. To help the Moz community maximize the return on investment of their content, I want to share a strategy I used in my prior position as a senior director at a global agency, and continue to use as a digital marketing and communications consultant.

What is content, exactly?

First, it is important to know that content is not simply something used to get links. As I explained in a Mozinar and a subsequent blog post on integrating digital marketing and public relations, content is essential to any business's overall marketing and communications strategy. Its functions include:

Goal Identification
Audience Research
Messaging and Positioning
Channel Research
Content Creation
Campaign Execution
Measuring Results

To use an example from the earlier post:

A sender decides upon a message. The message is packaged into a piece of content. The content is transmitted via a desired channel. The channel delivers the content to the receiver. Marketing is essentially sending a message that is packaged as a piece of content to a receiver via a channel.

Content is merely the vehicle that contains a desired marketing message that is then transmitted via a channel to an audience.

The big idea

In case you haven't heard, the newest thing is for brands to become publishers that create content.

While I was visiting SMX West in 2014, I heard this wonderful talk from Brian Clark of Copyblogger (see the SlideShare here):

The core message: Brands that become online media companies will dominate the Internet Age. One of Clark's examples: Netflix went from merely distributing content (in the form of TV shows and movies) to creating content.

The strategy makes sense because the more content brands produce, the more likely it is that their content will be shared on social media, the more brand awareness they will generate and the more chances there are for the content to garner links. In the end, the act of becoming a media company is a way to increase overall online engagement, which is an important ranking factor many SEOs are neglecting.

As more and more brands become publishers, marketers have more and more places to publish. However, we cannot effectively target all of these places, especially when our own websites need content.

The key is to develop a strategic approach to content marketing.

The different types of content

In general, there is owned media and earned media. (There is also paid media, but that mainly refers to paying to get earned content placement on a website.)

Owned media is content you publish on outlets you own (e.g., your website)
Earned media is content other outlets freely give you (e.g., bylined articles and news coverage)

Here is the central question I wish to address: When should you use owned versus owned media? In other words: Say you create a great piece of content. When should you publish it on your website and when should you publish it somewhere else? Owned and earned media have their benefits and drawbacks.

For an in-depth look on online branding and the different types of media, I invite you to read this detailed essay by Will Critchlow on Moz.

Why you should use owned media

You will own the content forever. If you publish, say, a blog post on your company website, then you will own and have access to that document for as long as you own your website. However, you have no guarantee of how long your content will remain on another website.
Your website can rank in the search engines. Why should another website receive the search benefits of your hard work? If I write an e-book that targets a keyword theme addressing informational queries, I want my website to rank for those search terms for the foreseeable future to generate top-of-the-funnel awareness.
It enhances brand building. The more you publish (and promote), the more your brand authority will grow over time as the content gets traffic, news coverage, mentions, and links.

Why you should use earned media

You can use someone else's audience. A bylined article or news coverage about you on a website or publication read by 100,000 people provides invaluable exposure.
You can earn links. As Jen Lopez explained here, you should not be submitting countless, short guest posts to random websites to get links. A targeted post on a respected website can gain numerous links for your brand.
You can likely build brand awareness more quickly. Building a brand on your own can take a long time, especially if you are a new business or startup with few readers and social followers. At my prior agency, we got an unknown CEO interviewed or published in what the public relations industry refers to as "Tier 3 outlets." Then, we took those interviews to "Tier 2 outlets" as proof that he was an influencer worthy to quote or be published in their outlets. From there we went to "Tier 1 outlets" for coverage. This had a tremendous positive impact for the business overall.

How to decide?

Image: Flickr user ralphpaglia

Obviously, there are benefits to using both owned and earned media. But a lot of the time, a single piece of content can only be used in one or the other channel. (See the last part of this article for important exceptions!)

Here is the rule I use for both clients and for myself:

**Owned media is used for your long-term marketing goals. Earned media is used for your short-term marketing goals.**

Now, graphic design is not one of my strong points (I'm personally more of a writer), but I've created a simple guide to illustrate that rule:

Here are some specific examples I've seen and used:

Owned media

Is it an attempt to rank highly in search results for a certain keyword theme over time? An example would be an essay that addresses a pain point your target customers have, one they would attempt to address by searching Google. At my prior agency, I wrote a guide to international SEO a few years ago. Last I checked, the agency still ranked in the top four for searches relating to "international SEO strategy" because of that document.
Is it part of your sales funnel? Perhaps the sidebar of your website includes a call-to-action to download an e-book. Of course, people would have to provide an e-mail address, and the e-book could contain links to product pages and sales representatives.

Earned media

Is it meant to introduce and/or brand yourself to a targeted audience? A client at my prior agency was a mobile advertising network. We had gotten bylined opinion articles for the CEO on major websites that are all about mobile devices and Internet advertising. Over time, the CEO received more and more attention from larger and larger publications, which helped his personal brand and that of the company's as well. (This is the real reason for so-called guest posting.)
Is it meant to generate more immediate sales and/or social media followers? If your company is in a B2B industry, for example, then LinkedIn is an obvious platform on which to publish. By posting on LinkedIn Pulse, you can get more followers of the author's profile (see an important thought below on company versus individual branding) business connections, leads, and thought leadership.

Internal content strategy for companies

Image: Flickr user fletcherprince

With LinkedIn, internal branding decisions need to be made because the platform allows only individuals to publish content. So, if your business has a great piece of content for a B2B audience for LinkedIn Pulse or another similar outlet, you must decide who publishes it.

Here's a brief outline of the strategy I recommend:

Determine who can or should represent the company in some public capacity
Decide what specific area each person will focus on based on his or her interests and expertise
Determine who should produce the content

As a hypothetical example, imagine a startup has a mobile app that helps companies create and manage online communities. Here is how duties could be divided up:

The CEO would discuss topics that relate to founding and running a high-tech startup
The vice president of products would focus on technology and cater his discussions to such matters
The vice president of marketing would write and speak about community management

It's crucial that your business divides content and PR duties among the senior staff. Plus, if multiple people are representing the company, there's greater potential for coverage and exposure.

How to combine owned and earned media

Of course, a lot of your content might not fit neatly into one of the two buckets above. You don't always have to choose one or the other.

The important point to understand is every third-party publisher is different and has its own rules. It's crucial to know them so that you do not violate their policies and thereby risk losing the resulting exposure.

When you cannot republish earned media

Moz has a rule that contributors cannot republish posts on their own websites. So, whenever I publish an article here, I do the following:

Publish a post on my blog with an excerpt (usually the first paragraph or two) with a call-to-action to visit Moz for the full article
Set the post on my blog to no-index and the canonical URL to that of the Moz post
If someone clicks the Twitter share widget on the specific post on my website, the share dialogue uses the canonical URL (to Moz)

This way, we both benefit. Moz gets the due credit (from Google and more), and my blog's subscribers see that I have published the article (on Moz). I would use this strategy when publishing content on third-party networks that do not allow republishing.

When you can republish earned media

LinkedIn Pulse, for example, allows anyone to publish a lengthy essay, and the website seems to use a combination of algorithms and human editors to decide which essays to promote on specific channels (such as Marketing Strategy or Social Media) and on the website's homepage.

While LinkedIn does allow you to publish content that has already been published elsewhere, the brand tends to more actively promote original content.

Here's what I do to maximize the benefits from LinkedIn Pulse:

I publish the content on my personal blog
Then I immediately post the content to Google+
Both of those actions "tell" Google that my website was the original publisher (see this post by Cyrus Shepard on how quickly Google indexes content that is posted to Google+)
After about 15 to 30 minutes, I post the content to LinkedIn Pulse
LinkedIn is more likely to promote the content then because it is not yet detectable in Google's SERPs

Here is just one example of an essay I published on my website and on LinkedIn—my website gets the credit in Google search and Google News. LinkedIn also promoted the post to thousands of users:

Images: Personal screenshots

This strategy can be used to your advantage. If you publish content on a third-party website, you might be able to convince them to set a canonical tag to your original post on your website.

Note: the rel=canonical tag is only a suggestion to Google. If another website publishes a post with a canonical tag to your website, the search engine may still choose to make that website the authoritative copy. I would also add a text link somewhere in the body of the post with wording such as "Originally published...". Matt Cutts has also recommended that the tag be placed as close to the top of section of code as possible.

But even in cases where the canonical tag is not an option, you can still publish the same content in multiple locations, provided one of several provisions is in place.

The main takeaway

The content marketing strategy for your own website (owned media) should focus on organic search and your sales funnel. The content marketing strategy for publishing and getting coverage elsewhere (earned media) should focus on your public relations and publicity goals (see my Moz essay on the basic principles of PR).

Both inbound and outbound marketing are crucial in any overall marketing strategy. Strategic deployment is the key.

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Seth's Blog : The productivity pyramid (give yourself a promotion)

The productivity pyramid (give yourself a promotion)

Productivity is a measure of output over time. All other things being equal, the more you produce per minute, the more productive you are. And economists understand that wealth (for a company or a community) is based on increasing productivity.

The simplest way to boost productivity is to get better at the task that has been assigned to you. To work harder, and with more skill.

The next step up is to find people who are cheaper than you to do those assigned tasks. The theory of the firm is that people working together can get more done, faster.

The next step up is to invest in existing technology that can boost your team's output. Buying a copier will significantly increase your output if you're used to handwriting each copy of the memo you've been assigned.

The step after that? Invent a new technology. Huge leaps in value creation come to those that find the next innovation.

The final step, the one that that eludes so many of us: Figure out better things to work on. Make your own list, don't merely react to someone else's.

It turns out that the most productive thing we can do is to stop working on someone else's task list and figure out a more useful contribution instead. This is what separates great organizations from good ones, and extraordinary careers from frustrated ones.

The challenge is that the final step requires a short-term hit to your productivity. But, if you fail to invest the time and effort to find a better path, it's unlikely you'll find one.