joi, 2 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


70% of Spanish Citizens Don't Believe Prime Minister Rajoy on the Recovery

Posted: 02 Jan 2014 05:56 PM PST

In what may be the least shocking economic statistic reported so far this year (albeit it's very early), 70% of Spanish Citizens Don't Believe Prime Minister Rajoy on the Recovery.

Via translation from El Economista...
In 2013, Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, promised the "economic recovery" would begin in 2014.

A survey released Wednesday by the newspaper El Mundo shows 71% of the citizens of our country believes that recovery will begin in 2015. A mere 17% trust the recovery will start this year and 8% estimated that the recovery actually started in the latter part of 2013.

The stats have gotten worse. A year ago 30% of Spaniards saw 2014 as the year of recovery, now that number is down to 17%.

With regard to the personal situation of respondents, only 20% believe their life from an economic point of view will be better in 2014. 75% believe it will be the same or worse.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Eurozone Manufacturing Expands Except in France and Greece; Hollande Concedes Taxes 'Too Heavy' Offending Everyone

Posted: 02 Jan 2014 12:47 PM PST

Eurozone manufacturing is at a 31-month high according to Markit. Every country but France and Greece are expanding. French manufacturing is at a seven-month low in an intensified downturn.
The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® rose for the third month running to post 52.7 in December, up from 51.6 in November (and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate).



The latest improvement in overall operating conditions was underpinned by solid and accelerated growth in the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland and Italy, while Austria continued to expand at a robust clip despite the rate of increase easing slightly since November. Meanwhile the Spanish PMI moved back into expansion territory. There was even relatively positive news from Greece, where higher levels of output and new orders elevated its PMI to a 52-month high and close to the 50.0 stabilisation point. France moved in the opposite direction, however, with its PMI falling to a seven - month low and signalling contraction for the twenty-second successive month.

Chief Economist Comment

Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson

"While Germany, Italy and Spain are seeing the strongest output growth since early - 2011, buoyed to varying degrees by improved export sales, France is seeing a steepening downturn, in part the result of widening export losses. This suggest s that competitiveness is a key issue which the French manufacturing sector needs to address to catch up with its peers."
Hollande Concedes Taxes 'Too Heavy' Offending Everyone

French president François Hollande rang the bell on the new year the same way he rang the bell throughout 2013, with an economic as well as public relations gaffe.

His vague promise of lower taxes coupled with an admission on national TV that taxes are too high, infuriated French households facing tax rises now, at the start of the year.

The Telegraph explains François Hollande concedes taxes 'too heavy' in admission that annoys all sides in France.
A New Year's message from François Hollande backfired as his vague promise that taxes would be lowered some time in the future jarred with French voters facing tax increases that took effect as he was speaking.

Instead of winning plaudits for his unexpected admission that taxes had become "too heavy, much too heavy", the unpopular socialist president - weakened by tax increases, rising unemployment and a shrinking economy - provoked incredulity and scepticism among critics on both Left and Right.

Hard-pressed French households faced VAT increases on most goods and services from Jan 1 and only days earlier France's supreme court had upheld a new 75 per cent supertax on high-paying companies.

Mr Hollande made his televised address in front of a virtual background, an image of the Elysée Palace, which provoked a flood of comments on Twitter comparing his appearance with that of a Soviet leader of the 1970s.

He offered companies a "responsibility pact", which he defined as the possibility of "lower labour charges and fewer restrictions on their activity in return for hiring more workers and more dialogue with trade unions".

But he gave no details about which restrictions might be lifted or how he would reduce the high social security charges and payroll taxes that leave French companies with some of the lowest profit margins in Europe.

His proposal came days after France's highest court approved his controversial 75 per cent "supertax" to be paid by companies on annual salaries exceeding €1 million.

Mr Hollande's proposal immediately came under attack from the left wing of his Socialist Party. Marie-Noëlle Lienemann, a Socialist senator, said: "This is not the time to offer companies incentives when ordinary people are struggling. It has to be balanced with measures to help them."

She complained that households would be hard hit by an increase in the standard rate of VAT from 19.6 per cent to 20 per cent yesterday, with an intermediate rate increased from seven to 10 per cent.

Bernard Accoyer, a centre-right MP, said his message was "a litany of his failures in 19 months as president" and added: "He admitted that he underestimated the crisis, raised taxes and charges on companies too high and failed to make the necessary cuts in public spending."
Vague Promises, Nonsensical Proposal

Hollande offers a "possibility" of lower taxes and labor charges IF businesses expand hiring and negotiate more with unions.

What business would accept that nonsensical proposal? Given the proposal was accompanied by an admission "taxes are too heavy, much too heavy", it's no wonder everyone was offended.

It's also no wonder France is going the opposite of the rest of the eurozone. But the rest of the eurozone is not out of the woods yet. No structural problems have been fixed anywhere.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

US Manufacturing PMI Shows Solid Expansion, Led by Large Companies; Expect "Measured Pace" Tapering

Posted: 02 Jan 2014 10:09 AM PST

Both the ISM Report and the Markit PMI report show strengthening US manufacturing.

ISM: The December 2013 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® shows Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December for the seventh consecutive month.
"The PMI™ registered 57 percent, the second highest reading for the year, just 0.3 percentage point below November's reading of 57.3 percent. The New Orders Index increased in December by 0.6 percentage point to 64.2 percent, which is its highest reading since April 2010 when it registered 65.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 56.9 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to November's reading of 56.5 percent. December's employment reading is the highest since June 2011 when the Employment Index registered 59 percent. Comments from the panel generally reflect a solid final month of the year, capping off the second half of 2013, which was characterized by continuous growth and momentum in manufacturing."
Markit: Here is a look at the Markit US Manufacturing PMI.
Key Points

  • PMI rises to 11 - month high, indicating solid improvement in business conditions
  • Output supported by strong increase in new orders
  • Employment growth quickens to nine - month high
  • Input price pressures intensifies

Summary

Business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector improved at the fastest rate since January, according to the final December Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™). At 55.0, up from 54.7 in November and above the earlier flash estimate of 54.4, the PMI indicated a solid rate of expansion.

Production in the series average and the fastest since March 2012. All three market groups (consumer, intermediate and investment) posted higher levels of output in December, with manufacturers of investment goods posting the fastest rate of increase.

Manufacturing Output



Company size analysis

Large manufacturers (more than 500 employees) reported a marked rise in output during December. This generally reflected a sharp increase in new business , with the rate of new order growth the joint - fastest since late - 2009. In contrast, new order growth was only modest at small manufacturers (less than 100 employees), with new export work having fallen since November.
"Measured Pace" Tapering

The consensus will start looking for additional Fed tapering, perhaps at an accelerated pace.

I expect tapering at a "measured" pace (small) accompanied by dovish statements from the Fed. When the economy slides, tapering will halt.

Recall that Alan Greenspan used the term "measured pace" when he started hiking rates after the 2001 recession.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

New Year, New Coverage

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

New Year, New Coverage

Millions of Americans finally have the security and peace of mind that comes from having quality, affordable health insurance coverage.

One of them is Trinace Edwards, who was diagnosed with a brain tumor shortly after being laid off and losing her insurance. Unable to work or afford private insurance, she couldn't get treatment. But when she began shopping for coverage after the Health Insurance Marketplace opened, she learned she would be eligible for coverage through Medicaid. In October, President Obama met with a group of Americans - including Trinace and her daughter - who are benefitting from the Affordable Care Act.

Hear what they had to say about what the law means for their family.

Hear Trinace's story.


 
 
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New Health Insurance Options, New Consumer Protections in the New Year

Millions of Americans finally have the security that comes from quality, affordable health coverage. And those who already have health insurance will have better, more reliable coverage than ever before. From now on, insured Americans won't be forced to put off a check-up or worry about going broke if they get sick.

READ MORE

A New Day in Health Care Coverage

For consumers whose Marketplace coverage began on January 1, we're doing everything we can to help ensure a smooth transition period. If consumers have questions about their new private insurance coverage, they can contact their insurance company directly. Consumers can log into their account on HealthCare.gov to find their insurer's customer service line or browse through a directory on HealthCare.gov.

READ MORE

Year in Review: Our 13 Favorite Online Moments of 2013

We're always looking for new ways to engage with the American people, so it's time to look back at some of our favorite online moments of 2013. Check out our favorites and be sure to stay tuned in the New Year.

READ MORE

 

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How to Use the Information Inside Google's Ved Parameter

How to Use the Information Inside Google's Ved Parameter


How to Use the Information Inside Google's Ved Parameter

Posted: 01 Jan 2014 03:29 PM PST

Posted by deedpolloffice

It's been two years now since Google announced that they'd be gradually withholding the search terms from referer headers, as secure (SSL) search was rolled out. This has meant that the keyword report in Analytics shows (not provided) for most visitors.

In our own Analytics reports, (not provided) keywords now make up 82% of all organic visitors.

For paid traffic (coming through AdWords) the keywords are still "provided," which is very helpful, but also very expensive.

And of course there's also the Search Queries report in Webmaster Tools. This is also useful, but it's still a disappointing loss of information compared to what we used to have (even if I personally think Google was probably right to go ahead with it).

The ved parameter to the rescue

Back in May, Tim Resnik wrote about patterns he'd spotted in Google's ved parameter. It turns out that ved codes contain rather useful information about the link that was clicked on in the search engine results page. And as Tim pointed out, this goes some way in replacing what was lost (or rather, killed off) by Google taking away the keyword data.

Three months later, Benjamin Schulz worked out that ved codes are actually encoded in Protocol Buffers (or "Protobuf"). So, as they're not actually encrypted, it's not too hard to unencode them (plus we don't have to feel too guilty about it!).

Google has even released open-source compilers (in several different languages), which you can use to decode ved codes yourself. However these compilers are probably a bit over-the-top for what online marketers need (and probably a bit hard to put into practice).

We've written up a guide to decoding and interpreting ved codesâ€"as well as filling in some of the unanswered questions (such as what parameter 1 means). And we've also written a JavaScript function for decoding veds, whichâ€"as I want to explainâ€"is essential if you want to incorporate this information into your own Analytics reports.

This article is an actionable guide to getting information out of these ved codes, and incorporating it into Analytics.

What is a ved code anyway?

I don't want to repeat too much what has already been written about in other posts, but it's a good idea to summarise what veds are, what's inside them, and how you can access them.

When you click on any of the links in Google's search results, the URL (address) of the link contains a "ved" parameter.

This "ved" code contains information about the link that you clicked on, and when a user comes to your website through Google's search results, the ved code is (usually) passed to you in the referer HTTP header.

What's inside a ved code?

A ved code contains up to five separate parameters, which each tell you something about the link that was clicked on:

Link index (parameter 1)

All the links on the SERP have a numerical index, which gets passed in the ved code.

It only gives you a very rough idea of where the link was in the page (without knowing more about what was on the page), so it's the least useful of the five parameters inside the ved.

However, it is rather useful when it's for a ved code coming from an adword, simply because there's no other information about the position.

Although the link index only gives a rough idea of the position of the adword, there are two concrete things you can take from it:

  • If it's about 45â€"65 or less (shopping results could go up to 85), then it means the adword was in the main column above the organic results
  • If it's about 170 or over, then it means the adword was in the right-hand column or at the bottom of the page

Link type (parameter 2)

This parameter is a number which corresponds to the type of link that was clicked on.

The most common value is 22, which corresponds to a normal (universal) search result.
Other common values (and their meanings) are:

Type of link Value
normal (universal) search result 22
sitelink 2060
one-line sitelink 338
image result (thumbnail) in universal search 245
news result 297
adword (i.e. sponsored search result) 1617

See the complete list, for other (less common) values.

We've actually found well over a hundred distinct values, so this is a small fraction of them! Most of them, though, are very unlikely to appear in referer URLs (bear in mind that these are Google's parameters; they weren't really meant for us).

You'll no doubt have noticed that there are lots of gaps in the values. I don't really know if this is because a lot have been retired, or if Google has left space for future link types (probably a bit of both, but more of the latter). For example, our reports show the link type 703, but we haven't worked out what it means yet. It seems like it's some sort of universal search result just for mobile devices. If you see 703 or other codes in your reports, and you have an idea what they meanâ€"write a comment below, or submit a pull request.

Start result position (parameter 7)

This parameter is the cumulative result position of the first result on the page. On page 2 it will be 10, on page 3 it will be 20, and so on.

It's better to think of this as the page number of results (after subtracting 1, and multiplying by 10)â€"because it's quite a long time ago now that there were always 10 results on every page. Anyhow, you'll need to interpret it in conjunction with parameter 6.

Result position (parameter 6)

This is very similar to the cd parameter, but there are a few important differences:

  • cd is counted from 1 (and upwards), whereas the ved result position is counted from 0.
  • On page 2 of the results, cd keeps on counting (i.e. 11, 12, 13…), but the ved result position is reset to 0.
  • Sometimes the cd parameter is not passed (e.g. for image thumbnails). In these cases, though, the ved result position does seem to get passed.

The ved result position is the more reliable of the two. If, for example, the cd parameter is 11â€"you wouldn't know if this is the 11th result on page 1, or the first result on page 2. With the ved result position, you can distinguish the two.

Sub-result position (parameter 5)

This parameter is like the result position (parameter 6), except it tells you the position in a list of sub-results, such as breadcrumbs, or one-page sitelinks.

How to decode ved codes and pull the information into Analytics

To import the ved into Analytics, you'll need to include some Javascript to decode it (and send it to the Analytics servers).

To do this, you can modify your Analytics JavaScript "snippet" as follows:

1. Include the ved-decode and base64 libraries

You need to include these libraries in your HTML, somewhere before your Analytics snippet.

The ved-decode library is needed to decode the ved and extract the information we want.
The base64 library is needed for Internet Explorer users, because they won't have a native Base64 decoder available in their browser.

Each of the two libraries is licensed under a permissive open-source licence (MIT / Apache v2.0)â€"which lets you use it in any kind of project.

  <!-- Include both these scripts or copy them into your main JavaScript file -->  <!--[if lt IE 10]>      <script type="text/javascript"          src="http://veddecode.opensource.dpo.org.uk/js/base64-1.0.min.js"></script>  <![endif]-->  <script type="text/javascript"      src="http://veddecode.opensource.dpo.org.uk/js/ved_analytics-1.0.min.js"></script>  

2. Send the ved data to Analytics

How you do this depends on whether you're using the old Analytics (ga.js) code, or the new Universal Analytics (analytics.js) code:

If you're using Analytics (ga.js)

Add this JavaScript code just before the call to _gaq.push(['_trackPageview'])â€"

      // The custom variable code needs to go *before* you record the pageview      // (i.e. the call to _trackPageview)      (function(w) {          var customVars = [              { slot: 1, name: 'Google link index',          v: 'linkIndex'         },              { slot: 2, name: 'Google link type',           v: 'linkType'          },              { slot: 3, name: 'Google result position',     v: 'resultPosition'    },              { slot: 4, name: 'Google sub-result position', v: 'subResultPosition' },              { slot: 5, name: 'Google page',                v: 'page'              }              ];          if (w._gaq && w.VedDecode && w.VedDecode.ved) {              for (var i = 0, val; i < customVars.length; ++i) {                  val = w.VedDecode[customVars[i].v];                  w._gaq.push([                      '_setCustomVar',                      customVars[i].slot,                      customVars[i].name,                      val ? val + '' : '(not set)',                      2 // session scope                      ]);              }          }      })(window);  

If you're using Universal Analytics (analytics.js)

For Universal Analytics you need to set up custom dimensions corresponding to the five parameters:

Custom dimension name Scope
Google link index Session
Google link type Session
Google result position Session
Google sub-result position Session
Google page Session

(These are suggested names, of courseâ€"you can call them whatever you like.)

Then add this JavaScript code just before the call to ga('send', 'pageview'):

      // The custom variable code needs to go *before* recording the pageview      (function(w) {          if (w.ga && w.VedDecode && w.VedDecode.ved) {              // Send pageview with custom dimension data              ga('set', {                  dimension1: getVedValue('linkIndex'),                  dimension2: getVedValue('linkType'),                  dimension3: getVedValue('resultPosition'),                  dimension4: getVedValue('subResultPosition'),                  dimension5: getVedValue('page')                  });          }          function getVedValue(key) {              var ret = w.VedDecode[key];              return ret ? ret + '' : '(not set)';          }      })(window);  

Make sure that the index generated for each dimension in your control panel corresponds to the dimension number in the JavaScript code.

For example, if the generated index for the Google link index dimension is 7, then you need to refer to it as dimension7 in the code.

Using the data

After a short while, the ved data should show up in your reports!

How you then use the data is up to you.

Clearly, though, it's going to be useful for optimizing different routes to your site, and looking at how different routes affect your conversion rates.

Personally, I think it's very interestingâ€"for AdWords customersâ€"to see how adword position (i.e. link index) affects conversion rates. It's very frustrating only having daily averages to work with, because you can't see (in the standard reports) how much your adword position varies during the day.

Please let us know what you do with the data in the comments below.

But what if no referer header gets passed?

This is important, because if there's no referer header, then there's no ved parameter.

The referer won't get passed in some cases:

If your site isn't secured by HTTPS

If your site uses HTTP, or it uses HTTP for some pages (in particular, any landing pages), then the referer header may not get passed. Sometimesâ€"even if a user is using secure (HTTPS) searchâ€"Google redirects them through a (non-secure) intermediate HTTP click-tracking page. When this happens, you'll get the referer (and the ved parameter).

However, if Google passes them through a secure (HTTPS) click-tracking page, then you won't get the referer (or the ved parameter) unless your site is also using HTTPS.

In conclusionâ€"if you want to be sure of getting the ved parameter for as many users as possibleâ€"use HTTPS for your site. (Of course this isn't the only reason to use HTTPS!)

If the user is on a mobile device

For mobile devices, Google has started to use hyperlink auditingâ€"which should have been called "click tracking", and is better known as the "ping" attributeâ€"instead of redirects through a click-tracking page. Hyperlink auditing isn't as reliable as a redirect, though, which is why:

  • Google only use it for mobile devices
  • all paid results (e.g. adwords) still go through traditional redirects

According to Google, the main motivation for using the ping attribute (only) on mobile devices, is to improve speedâ€"and I'm inclined to believe them. But it probably also helps that:

  • mobile users are probably less likely to turn hyperlink auditing off (or know how, or know what it is)
  • mobile devices run modern browsers, which support hyperlink auditing

Howeverâ€"you might askâ€"if mobile devices don't go through a redirect, and my site is using HTTPS, shouldn't I get the referer anyway?

Yes, that's right, you should get the referer!
But sadly, Google has specifically disabled it.

What Google do, if they use hyperlink auditing, is to set the meta referrer element to origin:

      <meta name="referrer" content="origin">  

This instructs the user's browser to include the document's origin in the referer header rather than the full URL of the document. So the referer will just state (something like) <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/">https://www.google.co.uk/</a>.

Before you think, "How evil!"â€"there's a good reason for this. If they didn't do this, then the search terms would also appear in the referer, and Google has committed to turning this off for privacy reasons.

So, mobile devices are another kettle of fish, and ved code analysis won't work most of the time. But for most sites, mobile devices will still be in the minority, and things change quickly anyway. (For example, if there was a new anti-privacy law requiring hyperlink auditing to be off by default, that would certainly be the death of it.)


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gamer4ever: "The Walking Dead Season 2 Episode 1: All That Remains - Bad/Rude/Wr..." and more videos

Seth's Blog : For startups and those about to start: a new course on Skillshare

 

For startups and those about to start: a new course on Skillshare

http://skl.sh/19WeEP0

To start off the year, the folks at Skillshare asked me to teach a course for them. You can find the details on the course at the link above. Reviewing the final footage, I'm excited at how well it turned out, and I'm hoping it will resonate with you.

In this course, I'm teaching specific tactics, and using the Skillshare platform to provide supplemental materials and a chance to interact with others if you choose.

Lately, it feels like I've recently had precisely the same discussion with a dozen different entrepreneurs. They've built (or are about to build) something they're proud of, and then, without warning, they hit a wall.

The problem, surprisingly, isn't their marketing. It's a miscalculation buried deep into the structure of their project. Again and again, the same issues keep coming up. I decided it would be worth creating a course to share my thoughts on how these seven different issues can be avoided (or even better, turned into advantages).

The course features seven lessons plus an intro about business models, together with exercises for each. You get about an hour of original video, along with ebooks, exercises and a chance to post your questions and your work.

If you use discount code BLOG (until January 10) on their site, you will save a few bucks.

I'm going to be actively answering questions online for the first round of students who take the course when it starts on January 10 (it's self-paced, so you can watch it when you want). Hope you find it worthwhile.

       

 

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