vineri, 22 martie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Regrets Pour In; Cyprus Parliament Passes Bailout Plan; Will Her Highness Approve?

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 04:32 PM PDT

The Cypriot parliament passed bailout measures today, but they are not quite the measures that Her Highness, Angela Merkel approves. They are not measures Cypriot citizens will approve of either.

Let's take a look at the present state of blackmail, as passed by Cyprus and reported by the BBC.
MPs in Cyprus have voted to restructure the island's banks - one of several measures to ease the crisis, which has hit confidence in the eurozone. They have also approved a "national solidarity fund" and capital controls to prevent a bank run. MPs did not vote on a key measure - a levy on large bank deposits. They rejected similar moves on Tuesday.

The "solidarity fund" would allow the pooling of state assets for an emergency bond issue, reports the Reuters news agency. These include future gas revenues and some pension funds - an idea that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has strongly condemned.

Ms Merkel had warned Cyprus not to "exhaust the patience of its eurozone partners", reports say.

Businesses in Cyprus have been insisting on payment in cash, rejecting card and cheque transactions. "We have pressure from our suppliers who want only cash," Demos Strouthos, manager of a restaurant in central Nicosia, told AFP news agency.

Our correspondent says he has never seen this much pressure being applied to a member state by the rest of the eurozone community in recent years.
Regrets Pour In

The Financial Times reports Cyprus laments end of way of life
When he was finance minister a decade ago, Takis Klerides helped steer Cyprus into the EU and the single currency, a defining achievement for a once-impoverished island nation that is far closer to Beirut than Brussels.

But on Friday, with Cypriots contemplating the steep price of an EU bailout, Mr Klerides sounded like a man with regrets.

"We found out the hard way that it's not a family," he said of the EU, arguing that the bloc's biggest members "dictate the terms and everyone else falls in line. It's becoming a dictatorship."

"The European project is crashing to earth," Athanasios Orphanides, who until recently served as central bank governor, said in a separate interview in which he dubbed Cyprus' treatment by European leaders "the bullying of a people".

Nicos Michaelas, the general manager of an investment company, Demetra Investment, put it even more bluntly: "We expected our European friends to help and they put a gun to our heads."
Hello Cyprus, Please Meet Reality

Merkel does not give a damn about you, all she cares about is her September reelection prospects and hardball with you helps those chances. But please, don't take it personal.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

German Economist Proposes "One Time" Cyprus-Like 15% Wealth Tax on Italians; Italy Proposes Easing Stability Pact; Is Italy the Next Cyprus?

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 12:45 PM PDT

Once trust is lost it is very slow to recover. For now, much of Europe is acting as if it believes Cyprus is a "one time" thing? But isn't that what we heard about Greece? Who is next? Italy?

In an article on Handelsblatt the chief economist of Commerzbank says: Italy should bring a unique wealth tax.
It is a myth to talk of crisis-strapped states. Even the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) and the chief economist of Commerzbank, Joerg Kraemer says the numbers suggest a different view.

Kramer relies on surveys of the European Central Bank. Net financial assets of the Italians are 173 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). This is significantly more than the net financial assets of the Germans, which corresponds to 124 percent of GDP, said Kramer for Handelsblatt Online.

"So it would make sense, in Italy for a one-time property tax levy," suggested the Bank economist. "A tax rate of 15 percent on financial assets would probably be enough to push the Italian government debt to below the critical level of 100 percent of gross domestic product."
Reader Bernd suggests Kraemer means a net tax on all assets not just financial ones, but either way the idea is preposterous. Banks always want bailouts to fall on the backs of private citizens not on banks.

Italy's Companies Face Slow 'Death' as Credit Crunch Deepens

While pondering the above confiscation threat, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard the Telegraph reports Italy's Companies Face Slow 'Death' as Credit Crunch Deepens.
Confindustria, the business federation, said 29 percent of Italian firms cannot meet "operational expenses" and are starved of liquidity. A "third phase of the credit crunch" is underway that matches the shocks in 2008-2009 and again in 2011.

In a research report the group said the economy was caught in a "vicious circle" where banks are too frightened to lend, driving more companies over the edge. A thousand are going bankrupt every day.

Franco Bernabè, the head of Telecom Italia, echoed the warnings, lamenting that firms are literally "dying from lack of liquidity". He called on the Bank of Italy to take bolder action to head off disaster. "The Italian economy is being suffocated. The country must intervene rapidly to reinject funds into the economy", he said.

Late payments have become a chronic problem across the board in Italy, with 47,000 official complaints last year. The research group CGIA di Mestre said half of small companies cannot pay their staff on time.
Loans To Businesses and Households Plunge

Backing up what Ambrose Evans-Pritchard said with hard data, the Italian site Il Sole 24 Ore reports New Fall in Bank Lending to Households and Businesses.
Loans to businesses and non-financial families continue to face strong decrease. In February, according to the estimates in the monthly report of ABI were down 2.84% trend (-2.79% in January).

In 2012 there has been a strong leap in non-payments, up 8.8% compared to 2011. Compared to 2007, the last year before the crisis, the increase is 45 percent.

Total gross non-performing loans amounted to 6.4% in January 2013, up from 5.4% a year earlier (+17.5% YoY). With regard to small businesses, NPLs has more than doubled since 2008, rising from 3% to 7.4%. NPLs in family businesses rose from 7% to almost 12 percent. Gross NPLs totaled 126.1 billion in January.

In the construction sector companies the number of non-payments rose by 10,700 up 80% since 2007.
Italy Proposes Easing Stability Pact

In the "Germany is Not Going to Like This" category, Il Sole 24 Ore reports Italy Proposes Easing Stability Pact while lowering growth estimates and increasing deficits.
The government intends "loosen the constraints of the stability pact to allow the use of further resources."

Italy finance minister Vittorio Grilli says the proposal is to "increase our potential debt of 20 billion per year in 2013 and 2014, to create the cash on hand to pay for" expenses.

In this context, the government cuts economic growth forecasts: GDP in 2013 will drop by 1.3% from a previous estimate of -0.2%. GDP is expected to drop by 1.7% in 2014.

The 2013 deficit was revised up to 2.9% from 1.8%. The minister stressed that the increase of debt of 40 billion, to pay the debts of the government, is the "ceiling."
Reflections on "The Ceiling"

Note the euphemism "create cash on hand to pay for expenses" by going another 40 billion in debt. Also note the increase in debt of 40 billion euros is "the ceiling".

Care to bet? If so, care to bet that GDP estimates will not be lowered again?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Hollande Announces 20 "Confidence Shock" Measures to Support Home Building

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 09:39 AM PDT

Sticking with his economically insane campaign promise to construct 500,000 new homes in 2013, Hollande Announces 20 Measures to Support Home Building.

Advocating a "confidence shock" to revive the building "against the Emergency Economic, social and environmental" the head of state has shown its desire to remove "all obstacles to construction", while there was about 340,000 starts of new homes in 2012, below the target of 500,000.

Housing Starts Insanity

I commented on this once before but it's worth a repeat now that Hollande is hell-bent on forcing his will on the market.

Reader Tim Wallace helps put the insanity into perspective. Wallace writes ...
Hello Mish

I was astounded to see that France wants 500,000 units of housing starts. According to the World Bank in 2011 France had a population of 65.5 million people. This compares to the USA population of 311.6 million from the same source. Therefore France is approximately 21% the size of the USA. For the USA to have an equivalent number of housing starts to population (the people who would get the units) we would need to have 2,380,952 starts!

We know how that would end.
Indeed, we do know how this would end.

The US is currently running about 890,000 housing starts annually, on a seasonally adjusted basis. And Hollande wants an equivalent 2,380,952 starts "for the public good".

US housing is distressed. However, France is in the midst of a bubble now burst, and it is beyond stupid to keep building anywhere in the face of falling demand.

"Confidence Shock Coming Right Up"

Before the election, people assured me Hollande could not possibly be foolish enough to actually follow through on his campaign promises. To them I say, never underestimate what a socialist fool (or any other kind of politician) might attempt to do.

Should Hollande actually succeed at getting developers to build 500,000 new homes even though developer Nexity predicts 280,000-300,000, I can guarantee you there will be a "confidence shock" because home prices will crash through the floor.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Get While the Gettin' is Good

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 01:49 AM PDT

The understatement of the day comes from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke who essentially says: I'm Dispensable.

"I don't think that I'm the only person in the world who can manage the exit," Bernanke said when asked at a news conference in Washington if he's discussed his plans with President Barack Obama.

What Bernanke said is best translated as "I'll get while the gettin' is good. Besides, I really don't have an exit plan in the first place, nor does anyone else."

  • What better time to leave when the world has forgotten about your ignorance in blowing the biggest housing and debt bubble the world has ever seen? 
  • What better time to leave than when equity and bond prices are back in enormous bubbles?  
  • What better time to dump what comes next on Janet Yellen (the obvious next dove Fed chairperson appointee)?

Bernanke's big hope is that he can keep this house of cards from collapsing until January when his term expires, and Yellen takes over.

He claims he is tired and wants out of the public life. He ought to be tired after sponsoring the world's biggest housing bubble then bailing out every "too big to fail bank" in the wake.

For that, he gets the praise of Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, who says "His knowledge and experience is too valuable to let him go."

What a joke.

Hans Nichols, says "Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, took steps unprecedented in the Fed's 100-year history to steer the economy through its worst crisis since the 1930s."

If Bernanke was a student of the great depression, precisely what did he learn?

The "cause" of the great depression was not inept policies by the Fed in response to the downturn in 1929 as Bernanke proposes. Rather, the "cause" of the great depression was the debt bubble that preceded it, just as the cause of the global financial crisis was the housing and debt bubbles that preceded the crash.

Bernanke is no savior, nor did he have any clues as the following video proves.



Please play that video, again, and again until you get it.

People are entitled to their opinions, but I am entitled to the "facts". The fact of the matter is the housing bubble was obvious, yet time and time again Bernanke did not see it coming, nor did he understand the severity when the crash did come.

As a self-proclaimed "student of the great depression", Bernanke gets an "F". He did not learn a damn thing. History will not be kind to the man.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Note: Some ATT users (not a fault of ATT) received timeouts on my "Wine Country Conference" link (see below). If you were one of them, please try again. The problem has been fixed.

Wine Country Conference

I am hosting an economic conference on April 5 in Sonoma, California. Proceeds go to the Les Turner ALS Foundation (Lou Gehrig's Disease).

Please see My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs for my association with the disease.

To learn about the economic conference with world-class speakers including John Hussman, Michael Pettis, Jim Chanos, John Mauldin, Mike "Mish" Shedlock, Chris Martenson with guest moderator Lauren Lyster and other Special Guests, please visit Wine Country Conference April 5, 2013

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


If the World Were 100 People [Infographic]

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 01:17 PM PDT

A view global statistics if the population of the world was 100 people.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Via daily.yworlds

SEO Blog

SEO Blog


Why The Right Content In The Right Place Can Really Help

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 05:45 AM PDT

When it comes to running a successful online business we all know that internet marketing is important. It stands to reason that even if you have the best products at the cheapest price people simply can't buy from you, unless they know you exist. It is essential that you use...
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5 Steps That Must Be Followed While Updating Computer Drivers

Posted: 22 Mar 2013 12:39 AM PDT

Computer drivers work as an interface between operating system and computer hardware. These are the software program which act as an intermediary between computer hardware and the software program. Computer drivers help system to recognize the attached hardware and peripheral devices. If any hardware is not working or supporting the...
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Things You Should Know Before You Do SEO

Posted: 21 Mar 2013 10:02 PM PDT

For many website owners SEO is simply a buzz term that they don't particularly understand but they want to do because they've heard good things. It's true that SEO when done well can be great for your business and increase your revenue along with your brand image but equally when...
Read more »

Who deserves the Citizens Medal?

The White House Friday, March 22, 2013
 

Who deserves the Citizens Medal?

Each year President Obama honors a handful of extraordinary Americans with the Citizens Medal, one of our nation's highest civilian honors. The Citizens Medal recognizes Americans for exemplary deeds of service outside of their regular jobs -- people who feed the needy, who take care of our veterans, or who support our children.

Is there someone in your life who deserves to be recognized by President Obama?

There are 9 days left before we close nominations on the 2013 Citizens Medal. Complete this easy nomination process before the public submission period closes:

Will you nominate a hero in your community?

Submit a nomination

Last year, people like you nominated over six thousand Americans from across the country and staff at the White House reviewed every single submission. Here are just a few examples:

  • Mary Jo Copeland has offered a safety net for Minneapolis families since 1985 -- offering food, clothing, shelter, and medical assistance to the needy.
      
  • Adam Burke, an Iraq combat veteran, runs "Veterans Farm," a 19-acre, handicap-accessible farm that helps returning veterans.
      
  • Janice Jackson founded a Baltimore nonprofit to serve women with varying degrees of disabilities.

Citizenship is fundamental to who we are as Americans. That's why, at the last award ceremony, President Obama stressed the role it plays:

"We're home to 315 million people who come from every background, who worship every faith, who hold every single point of view," he said. "But what binds us together, what unites us is a single sacred word: citizen."

There are thousands of people across the country making a difference, but we need your help to find them. Nominate a hero in your community today:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/citizensmedal/submit-a-nomination

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West Wing Week: "Reach Out to New Horizons"

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, March 22, 2013
 

West Wing Week: "Reach Out to New Horizons"

It's been a busy week for President Obama. He visited the Argonne National Laboratory in Illinois, celebrated the luck of the Irish at the Capitol, honored leaders in STEM education and small business at the White House, filled out his NCAA tournament brackets on ESPN, and announced his nominee for the Secretary of Labor in the East Room. And that was all before Tuesday evening, when he embarked on a five day trip to Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan.

Watch this week's West Wing Week.

West Wing Week 03/22/13

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

President Obama Meets Young Israelis and Palestinians on Second Day of his Middle East Trip
On the second day of his Middle East trip, President Obama spent the morning at the Israel Museum before traveling to the West Bank for the first time since 2008, then returning to Israel to speak to young people.

President Obama Drops by a Meeting with Small Business Leaders
In a meeting with small business leaders, President Obama discussed the importance of a big deal -- along the lines of what he offered the Republicans in Congress -- to the overall economy and the success of our small businesses.

Being Biden Vol. 2: A Good Omen
In the latest installment of the audio series "Being Biden," the Vice President takes you to St. Peter's Basilica, just after the Inauguration Mass of Pope Francis.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

2:55 AM: The President participates in a wreath laying ceremony at the grave of Theodor Herzl

3:10 AM: The President participates in a wreath laying ceremony at the grave of Yitzhak Rabin

3:35 AM: The President tours the Hall of Names

4:10 AM: The President lays a wreath in the Hall of Remembrance

4:30 AM: The President signs a guest book and delivers remarks in the Hall of Children

5:15 AM: The President has lunch with Prime Minister Netanyahu

7:15 AM: The President tours the Church of the Nativity with President Abbas

9:20 AM: The President departs Tel Aviv, Israel en route Amman, Jordan

9:55 AM: The President arrives Amman, Jordan

10:35 AM: The President arrives at Al Hummar, the official offices of His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan

10:40 AM: The President is met by His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan with an official arrival ceremony

10:55 AM: The President participates in a restricted bilateral meeting with His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan

11:15 AM: The President participates in an expanded bilateral meeting with His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan

11:45 AM: The President and His Majesty King Abdullah II host a press conference WhiteHouse.gov/live

1:50 PM: The President attends a dinner with His Majesty King Abdullah II

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

Get Updates

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Personalization and SEO - Whiteboard Friday

Personalization and SEO - Whiteboard Friday


Personalization and SEO - Whiteboard Friday

Posted: 21 Mar 2013 06:35 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

Personalization usage data and user data give marketers deep insights into their users' interests and actions. But how can you make the most out of these complex data sets to better serve your SEO campaigns?

In this week's Whiteboard Friday, Rand takes us through the intricate world of personalization and how it affects SEO. We'd love to hear your thoughts and tips in the comments below! 



Video Transcription

"Howdy, SEOmoz fans. Welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week I'm wearing a hoodie and a T-shirt, so it must be informal. I want to take you in a casual fashion into the topic of personalization user data and usage data, and these are complex topics. This Whiteboard Friday will not be able to cover all of the different areas that user and usage data and personalization touch on. But what I do hope to do is expose you to some of these ideas, give you some actionable insights, and then allow you guys to take some of those things away, and we can point to some other references. There are lots of folks who have done a good job in the search world of digging in deep on some of these other topics.
Let's start by talking about some of the direct impacts that personalization usage data have. Of course, by personalization usage data I mean the areas where Google is showing you or other users specific things based on your usage activities, where they are leveraging usage data, broad usage data, for many users to come up with different changes to these types of search results, and where they're leveraging user personalization on a macro level, taking the aggregate of those things and creating new types of results, re-ranking things and adding snippets. I'll talk about each of those.
In these direct impacts, one of the most important ones to think about is location awareness. This is particularly important obviously if you're serving a local area, but you should be aware that location biases a lot of searches that may not have intended to be local simply by virtue of their geography. If you're at a point, if I'm here in downtown Seattle, there is location awareness that affects the results ordering. I can perform searches, for example for Coffee Works, and I will get these Seattle Coffee Works results.
Perhaps if I was in Portland, Oregon and they had a Coffee Works in Portland, I would be getting those Coffee Works results. Usage history also gives Google hints about your location, meaning that even if you're searching on your smartphone or searching on your laptop, and you said, "Don't share my location," Google and Bing will still try to figure this out, and they'll try to figure it out by looking at your search history. They'll say to themselves, "Hey, it looks like this user has previously done searches for Madison Markets, Seattle Trader Joe's, used our maps to get directions from Capitol Hill to Queen Anne. I can guess, based on that usage data, that you are in Seattle, and I will try and give you personalized results that essentially are tied to the location where I think you're at."
A fascinating example of this is I was searching on my desktop computer last night, which I have not made it location aware specifically, but I did a search for a particular arena in Dublin, which is where the DMX Conference, that I'm going to in a couple days and speaking at, is going to be held. Then I started typing in the name of the hotel I was at, and it's a brand name hotel. What do you know? That location came up, the Dublin location of the brand hotel, even though that hotel has locations all over the world. How do they know? They know because I just performed a search that was related to Dublin, Ireland, and therefore they're thinking, oh yeah, that's probably where he's looking for this hotel information as well. Very, very smart usage history based personalization.
Do be aware search suggest is also affected directly by personalization types of results. If you are doing a search that is going to be biased by some element of personalization, either your search history or your location, those kinds of things, auto-suggest will come up with those same biases as the rankings might.
Next, I want to talk about the semantics of how you perform queries and what you're seeking can affect your search as well. Search history is an important bias here, right? Basically, if I've been doing searches for jewelry, gemstones, wedding rings, those kinds of things, and I do a search for ruby, Google and Bing are pretty smart. They can realize, based on that history, that I probably mean ruby the stone, not Ruby the programming language. Likewise, if I've just done searches for Python, Pearl and Java, they might interpret that to mean, "Aha, this person is most likely, when they're searching for Ruby, looking for the programming language." This makes it very hard if you're a software engineer who's trying to look for gemstones, by the way. As you know, the ruby gem is not just a gem. It's also part of the programming protocol.
This gets very interesting. Even seemingly unrelated searches and behavior can modify the results, and I think this is Google showing their strength in pattern matching and machine learning. They essentially have interpreted, for example, as disparate things as me performing searches around the SEO world and them interpreting that to mean that I'm a technical person, and therefore as I do searches related to Ruby or Python, they don't think the snake or the gemstone. They think the programming language Python or the programming language Ruby, which is pretty interesting, connecting up what is essentially a marketing discipline, SEO a technical marketing discipline, and connecting up those programming languages. Very, very interesting. That can modify your results as well.
Your social connections. So social connections was a page that existed on Google until last year. In my opinion, it was a very important page and a frustrating page that they've now removed. The social connections page would show, based on the account you were inside of, all your contacts and how Google connected you to them and how they might influence your search results.
For example, it would say randfish@gmail.com,which is my Gmail account that I don't actually use, is connected to Danny Sullivan because Rand has emailed Danny Sullivan on that account, and therefore we have these accounts that Danny Sullivan has connected to Google in one way or another. In fact, his Facebook account and several other accounts were connected through his Quora account because Quora OAuths into those, and Google has an agreement or whatever, an auth system with Quora. You could see, wow, Google is exposing things that Danny Sullivan has shared on Facebook to me, not directly through Facebook, but through this protocol that they've got with Quora. That's fascinating. Those social connections can influence the content you're seeing, can influence the rankings where you see those things. So you may have never seen them before, they may have changed the rankings themselves, and they can also influence the snippets that you're seeing.
For example, when I see something that Danny Sullivan has Plus One'd or shared on Google+, or I see something that Darmesh Shah, for example, has shared on twitter, it will actually say, "Your friend, Darmesh, shared this," or "Your friend, Danny Sullivan, shared this," or "Danny Sullivan shared this." Then you can hover on that person and see some contact information about them. So fascinating ways that social connections are being used.
Big take-aways here, if you are a business and you're thinking about doing marketing and SEO, you have to be aware that these changes are taking place. It's not productive or valuable to get frustrated that not everyone is seeing the same auto-suggest results, the same results in the same order. You just have to be aware that, hey, if we're going to be in a location, that location could be biasing for us or against us, especially if you're not there or if something else is taking your place.
If people are performing searches that are related to topics that might have more than one meaning, you have to make sure that you feel like your audience is well tapped into and that they're performing searches that they are aware of your products getting more content out there that they might be searching for and building a bigger brand. Those things will certainly help. A lot of the offline branding kinds of things actually help considerably with this type of stuff.
Of course, social connections and making sure that your audience is sharing so that the audience connected to them, even if they're not your direct customers, this is why social media strategy is so much about not just reaching people who might buy from you, but all the people who might influence them. Remember that social connections will be influenced in this way. Right now, Google+ is the most powerful way and most direct way to do this, but certainly there are others as well as the now removed social connections page, helped show us.
What about some indirect impacts? There are actually a few of these that are worth mentioning as well. One of those indirect impacts that I think is very important is that you can see re-ranking of results, not just based on your usage, but this can happen or may happen, not for certain, but may happen based on patterns that the engines detect. If they're seeing that a large number of people are suddenly switching away from searching ruby the gemstone to Ruby the language, they might bias this by saying, "You know what, by default, we're going to show more results or more results higher up about Ruby the programming language."
If they're seeing, boy a lot of people in a lot of geographies, not just Seattle, when they perform a Coffee Works search, are actually looking for Seattle Coffee Works, because that brand has built itself up so strongly, you know what, we're going to start showing the Seattle Coffee Works location over the other ones because of the pattern matching that we're seeing. That pattern matching can be a very powerful thing, which is another great reason to build a great brand, have a lot of users, and get a lot of people around your product, your services, and your company.
Social shares, particularly what we've heard from the search engines, Bing's been a little more transparent about this than Google has, but what Bing has basically said is that with social shares, the trustworthiness, the quality, and the quantity of those shares may impact the rankings, too. This is not just on an individual basis. So they're not just saying, "Oh well, Danny Sullivan shared this thing with Rand, and so now we're going to show it to Rand." They're saying, "Boy, lots of people shared this particular result around this topic. Maybe we should be ranking that higher even though it doesn't have the classic signals." Those might be things like keywords, links, and all the other things, anchor text and other things that they're using the ranking algorithm. They might say, "Hey the social shares are such a powerful element here, and we're seeing so much of a pattern around this, that we're going to start re-ranking results based on that." Another great reason to get involved in social, even if you're just doing SEO.
Auto-suggest can be your friend. It can also be your enemy. But when you do a search today, Elijah and I just tried this, and do a search for Whiteboard space, they will fill in some links for you – paint, online, information. Then I did the same search on my phone, and what do you think? Whiteboard Friday was the second or third result there, meaning, they've seen that I've done searches around SEOmoz before and around SEO in general. So they're thinking, "Aha. You, Rand, you're a person who probably is interested in Whiteboard Friday, even though you haven't done that search before on this particular phone." I got a new phone recently.
That usage data and personalization is affecting how auto-suggest is suggesting or search suggest is working. Auto-suggest, by the way, is also location aware and location biased. For example, if you were to perform this search, whiteboard space, in Seattle, you probably would have a higher likelihood of getting Friday than in, let's say, Hong Kong, where Whiteboard Friday is not as popular generally. I know we have Hong Kong fans, and I appreciate you guys, of course. But those types of search suggests are based on the searches that are performed in a local region, and to the degree that Google or Bing can do it, they will bias those based on that, so you should be aware.
For example, if lots and lots of people in a particular location, and I have done this at conferences, it's actually really fun to ask the audience, "Hey, would everyone please perform this particular search," and then you look the next day, and that's the suggested search even though it hadn't been performed previously. They're looking at, "Oh, this is trending in this particular region." This was a conference in Portland, Oregon, where I tried this, a blogging conference, and it was really fun to see the next day that those results were popping up in that fashion.
Search queries. The search queries that you perform, but not just the ones the you perform, but the search queries as a whole, kind of in an indirect, amalgamated, pattern matching way, may also be used to form those topic models and co-occurrences or brand associations that we've discussed before, which can have an impact on how search results work and how SEO works. Meaning that, if lots of people start connecting up the phrase SEOmoz with SEO or SEOmoz with inbound marketing, or those kinds of things, it's very likely or you might well see that Google is actually ranking pages on that domain, on SEOmoz's domain, higher for those keywords because they've built an association.
Search queries, along with content, are one of the big ways that they put those topics together and try to figure out, "Oh yeah, look, it seems like people have a strong association with GE and washer/dryers, or with Leica and cameras or with the Gap and clothing." Therefore, when people perform those types of searches, we might want to surface those brands more frequently. You can see this in particular when you perform a lot of ecommerce-related searches and particular brands come up. If you do a search for outdoor clothing and things like Columbia Sportswear and REI and those types of brands are popping up as a suggestion, you get a strong sense of the types of connections that Google might build based on these things.
All right, everyone. I hope you've enjoyed this edition of Whiteboard Friday. I hope you have lots of great comments, and I would love to jump in there with you and suggestions on how you people can dig deeper. We will see you again next week."

Video transcription by Speechpad.com


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Announcing the Just-Discovered Links Report

Posted: 21 Mar 2013 02:00 AM PDT

Posted by The_Tela

Hey everyone, I'm Tela. I head up data planning at SEOmoz, working on our indexes, our Mozscape API, and other really fun technical and data-focused products. This is actually my first post on the blog, and I get to announce a brand new feature - fun!

One of the challenges inbound marketers face is knowing when a new link has surfaced. Today, we're thrilled to announce a new feature in Open Site Explorer that helps you discover new links within an hour of them going up on the web: the Just-Discovered Links report.

This report helps you capitalize on links while they're still fresh, see how your content is resonating through social channels, gauge overall sentiment of the links being shared, give you a head start on instant outreach campaigns, and scope out which links your competitors are getting. Just-Discovered Links is in beta, and you can find it in Open Site Explorer as a new tab on the right. Ready to learn more? Let's go!

What is the Just-Discovered Links report?

This report is driven by a new SEOmoz index that is independent from the Mozscape index, and is populated with URLs that are shared on Twitter. This means that if you would like to have a URL included in the index, just tweet it through any Twitter account.

One note: The cralwers respect robots.txt and politeness rules, which would prevent such URLs from being indexed. Also, we won't index URLs that return a 500 status code.

search results

Who is it for?

Our toolsets and data sources are expanding to support a wider set of inbound marketing activities, but we designed Just-Discovered Links with link builders in mind.

Getting started

You can search Just-Discovered Links through the main search box on Open Site Explorer. Enter a domain, subdomain, or specific URL just as you would when using the Inbound Links report. Then select the Just-Discovered Links beta tab. The report gives PRO members up to 10,000 links with anchor text and the destination URL, as well as Domain Authority and Page Authority metrics.

One important note on Page Authority: we will generally not have a Page Authority score available for new URLs, and will show [No data] in this case. So, when you see [No data], it generally indicates a link on a new page.

You can also filter the results using many of the same filter drop-downs you are used to using in other reports in Open Site Explorer. These include followed and no-followed links, and 301s; as well as internal or external links, and links to specific pages or subdomains. Note: We recommend you start searches using the default "pages on this root domain" query, and refine your search from there.

How does it work?

When a link is tweeted, we crawl that URL within minutes. We also crawl all of the links on the page that have been tweeted. These URLs, their anchor text, and their meta data (such as nofollow, redirect, and more) are stored and indexed. It may take up to an hour for links to be retrieved, crawled, and indexed.

We were able to build this feature rapidly by reusing much of the technology stack from Fresh Web Explorer. The indexes and implementation are a little different, but the underlying technology is the same. Dan Lecocq, the lead engineer on both projects, recently wrote an excellent post explaining the crawling and indexing infrastructure we use for Fresh Web explorer.

There are a few notable differences: we don’t use a crawl scheduler because we just index tweeted URLs as they come in. That’s how we are able to include URLs quickly. Also, unlike Fresh Web Explorer, the Just-Discovered Links report is focused exclusively on anchor text and URLs, so we don’t do any de-chroming as that would mean excluding some links that could be valuable.

How is it different?

Freshness

Freshness of data continues to be a top priority when we design new products. We have traditionally released indexes on the timeframe of weeks. With this report, we have a new link index that is updated in about an hour. From weeks to an hour - wow! We'll be providing additional details in the future on what this means.

URL coverage

This index includes valuable links that may be high-quality and topically relevant to your site or specific URL but are new, and thus have a low Page Authority score. This means they may not be included in the Mozscape index until they have been established and earned their own links. With this new index, we expect to uncover high-quality links significantly faster than they would appear in Mozscape.

I want to clarify that we are not injecting URLs from the Just-Discovered Links report into our Mozscape index. We will be able to do this in the future, but we want to gather customer feedback and understand usage before connecting these two indexes. So for now, the indexes are completely separate.

How big is the index?

We have seeded the index and are adding new URLs as they are shared, but don’t yet have a full 30 days worth of data in the index. We are projecting that the index will include between 250 million and 300 million URLs when full. We keep adding data, and will be at full capacity in the next week. 

How long will URLs stay in the index?

We are keeping URLs in the index for 30 days. After that, URLs will fall out of the index and not appear in the Just-Discovered Links report. However, you can tweet the URL and it will be included again.

How long does it take to index a URL?

We are able to crawl and include URLs in the live index within an hour of being shared on Twitter. You may see URLs appear in the report more quickly, but generally you can expect it to take about an hour.

Why did you choose Twitter as a data source?

About 10% of tweets include URLs, and many Twitter users share links as a primary activity. However, we would like to include other data sources that are of value. I’d love to hear from folks in the comments below on data sources they would like to see us consider for inclusion in this report.

How much data can I get?

The Just-Discovered Links report has the same usage limits as the Inbound Links report in Open Site Explorer. PRO customers can retrieve 10,000 results per day, community members can get 20 results, and guests can see the first five results.

What is “UTC” in the Date Crawled column?

We report time in UTC, or Coordinated Universal Time format. This time format will be familiar for our European customers, but might not be as familiar for customers in the states. The time zones for UTC are ahead of Eastern Standard Time, so US customers will see links where the time-stamp appears to be in the future, but this is really just a time zone issue. We can discover links quickly, but can’t predict links before they happen. Yet, anyways :)

CSV export

You can export a CSV with the results from your Just-Discovered Links report search. The CSV export will be limited to 5,000 links for now. We plan to increase this to 10,000 rows of data in the near future. We need to re-tool some of Open Site Explorer’s data storage infrastructure before we can offer a larger exports, and don’t have an exact ETA for this addition quite yet.

export search results

This is a beta release

We wanted to roll this out quickly so we can gather feedback from our customers on how they use this data, and on overall features. We have a survey where you can make suggestions for improving the feature and leave feedback. However, please keep in mind the fact that this is a beta when deciding how to use this data as part of your workflow. We may make changes based on feedback we get that result in changes to the reports.

Top four ways to use Just-Discovered Links

Quick outreach is critical for link building. The Just-Discovered Links report helps you find link opportunities within a short time of being shared, increasing the likelihood that you’ll be able to earn short-term link-building wins and build a relationship with long-term value. Here are four ways to use the recency of these links to help your SEO efforts:

  1. Link building: Download the CSV and sort based on anchor text to focus on keywords you are interested in. Are there any no-followed links you could get switched to followed? Sort by Domain Authority for new links to prioritize your efforts.
  2. Competitor research: See links to your competitor as they stream-in. Filter out internal links to understand their link building strategy. See where they are getting followed links and no-followed links. You can also identify low-quality link sources that you may want to avoid. Filter by internal links for your competitors to identify issues with their information architecture. Are lots of their shared links 301s? Are they no-following internal links on a regular basis?
  3. Your broken links: The CSV export shows the http status code for links. Use this to find 404 links to your site and reach-out to get the links changed to a working URL.
  4. Competitor broken links: Find broken links going to your competitors’ sites. Reach out and have them link to your site instead.

what you can do with Just-Discovered Links

Ready to find some links?

We’ve been releasing new versions of our Mozscape index about every two weeks. An index that is continuously updated within an hour is new for us, too, and we’re still learning how this can make a positive impact on your workflow. Just as with the release of Fresh Web Explorer, we would love to get feedback from you on how you use this report, as well as any issues that you uncover so we can address them quickly.

The report is live and ready to use now. Head on over to Open Site Explorer’s new Just-Discovered Links tab and get started!


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