Central Perk: 6 nov. 2011

duminică, 6 noiembrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Does Black Friday Arrive at Midnight or is this the Death of Black Friday?
Swiss Central Bank Threatens More Action to Ward off Deflation; Swiss Real Estate Overheating; Don't Worry, It's Not a Bubble (It Just Looks Like One)
Burning the Piigs in Effigy
In Act of Desperation, G20 Asks Germany to Pledge its Gold for EFSF Rescue Fund, Bundesbank Refuses; Grateful for the Arrogance

Does Black Friday Arrive at Midnight or is this the Death of Black Friday?

Posted: 06 Nov 2011 05:29 PM PST

The day after Thanksgiving is traditionally known as "Black Friday" because that is when Christmas season starts and many stores go into the green for the year.

However, in recent years, stores opened earlier and earlier, with people lining up at 4:00AM to ensure being the first in the store for "hot specials" or items expected to be in short supply. On occasion, people have been trampled to death in the mad rush to get into stores.

This Thanksgiving, many stores have pushed up the clock to open at Midnight instead of 5 or 6 AM.

Please consider More Retailers Attack at 'Black Midnight'

Best Buy Co. is joining the list of big store chains opening at midnight after Thanksgiving this year in hopes of getting a jump on the competition, following recent announcements by Target Corp., Macy's Inc. and Kohl's Corp.

Best Buy's move—significant since the retailer specializes in big-ticket electronics likely to lure shoppers in the predawn hours—leaves Wal-Mart Stores Inc. as one of the last mass merchants that has not announced it is offering "door-buster" specials as soon as the clock strikes 12 on Nov. 25.

Wal-Mart wouldn't disclose its plans for this year, a spokesman said. But it has typically held off on selling its most hyped specials until 5 a.m. the morning after Thanksgiving, on what is known among retailers as "Black Friday."

Some retail experts say that store chains are fighting a losing battle to prolong a shopping rite that looks increasingly antiquated compared with the daily deals and flash sales offered by online rivals such as Amazon.com Inc.

"Once one retailer goes early, the rest feel obligated to follow, and you have to wonder what gain there is for any of them," said Joel Bines, managing director of the global retail practice at consultancy AlixPartners.

Many Wal-Mart stores are open 24 hours, and others opened at midnight on Black Friday last year to sell toys. But the company has thus far postponed selling its discounted flat-screen televisions and other mega deals until just before dawn.

Toys "R" Us Inc. last year opened its doors on Thanksgiving night at 10 p.m. The toy retailer hasn't announced when it is starting Black Friday sales this year. Walt Disney Co., which has opened some Disney Store locations at midnight on Black Friday for several years, said it is expanding early openings this year to 150 stores. Several retailers now open on Thanksgiving Day itself, including Gap Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp., and the moves by others to start the official Black Friday scramble at midnight mean that more deal seekers will now leave families and start lining up hours earlier on turkey day.

Best Buy, which hopes to reverse five consecutive quarters of sales declines at U.S. stores open at least 14 months, said its early Black Friday activities would actually begin late Thanksgiving night at 9 p.m. with what Mr. Dunn said will be a movie screening of "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows—Part 2," which will be released on video Nov. 11.

Death of Black Friday?

Does Black Friday starts at midnight or if this is simply the death of Black Friday? I believe something in between.

Black Friday is on the death-bed but has not yet died. It will. This whole charade is becoming pointless with so many pre-sales and pre-pre-sales and of course pre-pre-pre-sales that eventually no one is going dive a damn.

Unprecedented Drop in Port Traffic

Yet traditions die hard, and people like to shop the day after Thanksgiving. However, a huge drop in port traffic suggests this Christmas season will not be very robust.

I have written about that three times recently.

October 12, 2011: Unprecedented Drop in Port Traffic: A Sobering Omen for Holiday Sales or Should we Listen to Analysts?

October 14, 2011: More Alarming Shipping News and Charts: Railfax Railroad, Ceridian Trucking, Harper-Petersen Shipping; Reader Anecdotes

October 26, 2011: Holiday Price Wars Begin Because "Price Matters"

To what extent is this "Black Midnight" about the need for each retailer to outdo each other vs. the need to do something because all the retailers are scared to death of another miserable shopping season?

The question is moot. Black Friday is on the deathbed, the prognosis for retailers this season does not look good, nor does the prognosis for Black Friday itself in the years to come.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Swiss Central Bank Threatens More Action to Ward off Deflation; Swiss Real Estate Overheating; Don't Worry, It's Not a Bubble (It Just Looks Like One)

Posted: 06 Nov 2011 12:01 PM PST

The Swiss National Banks "expects" the Franc to depreciate, and if it doesn't it will flood the world with more Francs, if necessary, to stave off deflation.

Bloomberg reports SNB Is Ready to Act on Franc If Gains Risk Deflation, Hildebrand Tells NZZ

Swiss central bank President Philipp Hildebrand said policy makers remain ready to act in case the franc's strength increases the risk of deflation and threatens the country's economy.

The Swiss National Bank expects the franc "to depreciate further," Hildebrand told NZZ am Sonntag newspaper in an interview conducted Nov. 2 and published today. "Should that not be the case, it could lead to deflationary developments and weigh heavily on the economy. We are ready to take further measures in case economic prospects and a deflationary development should require it."

Asked whether the SNB would increase its cap on the franc versus the euro, the president said that the central bank "monitors the data and would take further measures if needed."

The SNB's past efforts to stem the franc's advance, including 15 months of currency sales, contributed to the central bank's record $21 billion loss in 2010, prompting calls by lawmakers for Hildebrand to resign. The SNB more than quadrupled its currency holdings over 15 months beginning in March 2009, before suspending interventions in June last year.

The central bank is monitoring developments in the Swiss real-estate market "with a certain concern," Hildebrand told NZZ am Sonntag. Still, it's possible that with the economy cooling and unemployment rising the property market may calm, he said.

Check out that last comment by Hildebrand. He is worried about a property bubble and wants to prevent deflation by printing Francs, which (until the Swiss property bubble bursts), will further inflate its property bubble, placing more deflationary pressures on Switzerland when it pops.

Don't Worry, It's Not a Bubble (It Just Looks Like One)

UBS says Swiss Property Market Booming In 3Q, But Not In Bubble

Switzerland's property market continued to boom in the third quarter, though the chance of a downward price correction remains low, according to an index measuring risk in the market.

"Strikingly, loan applications for real estate purchased for leasing increased further despite being at a high level already, and neither is any trend reversal in sight for Swiss household mortgage debt," UBS said. Still, "the relatively small increase in nominal house prices has had a cooling effect on the market."

The Zurich, Geneva and Lausanne metropolitan regions remain Switzerland's most risky regions on account of to their economic importance, but Zug, Vevey and the tourist region of Davos have now been added to the list, it said.

The Swiss central bank warned this year on the dangers of the residential real-estate market overheating, and has said it and the Swiss financial market regulator Finma are watching developments closely.

Increases in Swiss house prices, especially in some lakeside locations in Zurich and Geneva, have been driven largely by robust economic growth, historically low mortgage rates, and the influx of high-earning immigrants.

Mad Mad Recap

UBS says Switzerland real estate is not a bubble even though it is acting like one and even though the Swiss central bank and Swiss regulators are worried about it.

Moreover, the Swiss central bank is ready to stave off deflation yet is counting on the "economy cooling" to calm the property market, while attempting to prevent the economy from cooling by flooding the world with Francs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Burning the Piigs in Effigy

Posted: 06 Nov 2011 08:29 AM PST

Every Autumn, my neighbor has an "effigy party" and guests are invited to burn a symbol of what ails them in a display of public odium.

One of the guests was Alex Sirois, Director of Strategy of Motorola, who chose to burn a ceramic Piig. Others burnt symbols of the Chicago Cubs, the Ohio State coach, a giant cigarette by someone who was quitting smoking, and other such worthy symbols.

I arrived with the action already in progress but I did manage to catch a few burning images. Click on any shot for sharper image.

Ceramic Piig, Complete with Symbol of Euro

Lifesize replica of Ohio State football coach going up in flames. The head is an image taped on a balloon. How that balloon lasted so long in a fire is rather amazing.

No effigy burning party would be complete without burning a figure of the most futile team in all of sports history, the Chicago Cubs.

If by some miracle the Chicago Cubs win next year, please thank my neighbor's associates for properly exorcising the demons that haunt the Cubs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

In Act of Desperation, G20 Asks Germany to Pledge its Gold for EFSF Rescue Fund, Bundesbank Refuses; Grateful for the Arrogance

Posted: 05 Nov 2011 11:57 PM PDT

The gall and arrogance of the G20 and Euro-nanny finance minister clowns is staggering.

German newspapers report that the G20 discussed asking Germany to pledge its gold to bail out Greece and the Piigs, and to fund the EFSF.

The Bundesbank, Germany's central bank said "We know this plan and we reject it."

One might think that would be enough to stop such idiotic talk, but one would be wrong. In spite of Bundesbank opposition, euro zone finance ministers will discuss the idea next week.

Please consider Bundesbank: central bank reserves will not help fund EFSF

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung (FAS) reported that Bundesbank reserves -- including foreign currency and gold -- would be used to increase Germany's contribution to the crisis fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by more than 15 billion euros ($20 billion).

The European Central Bank (ECB) would own the reserves, according to the paper, citing sources at the G20 meeting held in Cannes this week.

The Welt am Sonntag newspaper, citing similar plans, said 15 billion euros would come from special drawing rights (SDR) that the Bundesbank holds.

G20 leaders in Cannes discussed the idea that the European System of Central Banks could pawn their total foreign exchange reserves of 50-60 billion euros to a trust of the European crisis fund in the form of special drawing rights from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the newspapers said.

"We know this plan and we reject it," a Bundesbank spokesman said.

The newspapers had said the issue was taken off the agenda at the G20 following Bundesbank opposition but that it would be debated on Monday at a Eurogroup meeting of euro zone finance ministers.

Grateful for the Arrogance

In spite of the stupidity of discussing something that is not going to happen, here are three reasons to be grateful they did.

The proposal highlights the desperation, blatant arrogance, and sheer pig-headedness of the G20 and Eurozone finance ministers.
The proposal shows that gold is money.
Sooner or later, one of these asinine proposals will will cause Germany to realize the EMU is a lost cause. The sooner Germany realizes that, the better off everyone will be.

ZeroHedge addresses the question "why will this be debated?"

Why will it be debated? Because when at first you don't succeed, try, try again. Germany may be crossed off the list, but here is who is next in order of appearance. Sooner or later, Europe will stumble on that one "leader" whose gold is less valuable than their political stability.

If France and Italy want to expand the EFSF, why don't they pledge their own gold rather than asking Germany to pledge its gold?

One possible answer is that any country dumb enough to pledge its gold will very quickly lose its AAA rating. However, the Euro-nanny finance minister clowns are probably not bright enough to figure that out.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : What do you do when you don't know the answer?

What do you do when you don't know the answer?

"Nothing" is the most common response.

Do nothing until you do know the answer. Study and practice and wait for approval and then do something.

Which is fine (for a surgeon) but what happens most of the time? Most of the time there's something that needs to be done where the answer is unknowable until you do it...

That's what we're waiting for you to do.