Central Perk: 24 iul. 2012

marți, 24 iulie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Record Low Yields Once Again on US Treasuries
Germany in Recession: Private Sector Sees Fastest Falls in Output and New Business Since June 2009; New Export Orders Collapse
Mish on Capital Account: Discussion of Social Media Panic in Italy, Soaring Yields in Spain, and the Upcoming 20th Euro Summit, Bound to be Another Failure

Record Low Yields Once Again on US Treasuries

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 12:18 PM PDT

Curve watcher's anonymous is noting record low yields across most of the US Treasury yield curve.

US Treasury Curve 2012-07-24

click on chart for sharper image

The above image is just off the absolute lows. The 30-year touched 2.45% and 10-year 1.39%.

Legend

Brown: $IRX 3-Month Treasury Bill Discount Rate
Blue: $FVX 5-Year Treasury Note Yield
Orange: $TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield
Green: $TYX 30-Year Long Bond Yield

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Germany in Recession: Private Sector Sees Fastest Falls in Output and New Business Since June 2009; New Export Orders Collapse

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 08:28 AM PDT

The vaunted German export machine is sinking into the abyss. The Markit Flash Germany PMI® shows German private sector sees fastest falls in output and new business since June 2009.

Key Points

Flash Germany Composite Output Index(1) at 47.3 (48.1 in June), 37-month low.

Flash Germany Services Activity Index(2) at 49.7 (49.9 in June), 10-month low.

Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 43.3 (45.0 in June), 37-month low.

Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 42.8 (44.8 in June), 37-month low.

Summary:

The seasonally adjusted Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index fell for the sixth month running in July, to 47.3 from 48.1 in June. The index has posted below the 50.0 no-change value in each month since May, and the latest reading signalled the fastest pace of private sector contraction since June 2009.

Manufacturers suffered a sharper drop in business activity than service providers during July, as well as a greater loss of momentum relative to the situation in June. The latest reduction in manufacturing production was the steepest for just over three years, while new orders received in the sector dropped at the fastest pace since April 2009. Service providers recorded only a marginal decrease in business activity, although the rate of contraction was the joint-fastest in three years.

Across the private sector as a whole, new business intakes fell at the quickest rate since June 2009, with manufacturers and service providers both recording much sharper declines than during the previous month. Lower levels of new work have been recorded in the service economy during each month since April, and the latest reduction was the fastest for exactly three years. Meanwhile, in the manufacturing sector, new export orders declined at the steepest rate since May 2009, which contributed to a thirteenth successive monthly fall in total new business volumes.

July data pointed to a sharp and accelerated fall in outstanding business across the German private sector. ....

Flashback January 09, 2012: Dimwit Comment of the Day: Christine Lagarde, IMF Director says "Europe May Avoid a Recession This Year"

In what is likely the silliest comment of the year so far, Christine Lagarde says Europe may avoid recession this year

Flashback January 12, 2012: German Economy Contracts in 4th Quarter; Spain's Industrial Output Plunges 7%; UK Trade Deficit Widens; European Banks Wisely Hoard Cash

If Europe heads into a prolonged recession (and it has already started), Germany cannot help but get sucked into it. Approximately 28 percent of German GDP is derived by exporting goods to EU countries and Switzerland.

Think German exports to the rest of Europe are going to rise forever? Think again, starting with a look at the Eurozone's 4th largest economy. ...

Flashback February 23, 2012: Don't Worry, It's Only a "Mild Recession"

The economic clowns in the EU have finally acknowledged something that was blatantly obvious at least six months ago (and a lot longer if one factored in the likely effects of multiple austerity programs in numerous countries).

However, the economists' new conclusion is about as silly as the "no recession" call that preceded it. The new forecast: there will be a recession in the eurozone but not the EU and it will be "mild".

Such nonsense went on for months actually. Economists were behind the curve every step of the way even though it should have been blatantly obvious what was about to happen.

Global Recession Revisited

On July 6 I wrote Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived

Clearly I am not changing that prognosis although I do wish to reiterate the definition of "global recession as per my post Case for US and Global Recession Right Here, Right Now; Recognizing the Limits of Madness; Permabears?

Contrary to popular myth, recession does not mean two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. Rather, two consecutive quarters of economic contraction is a sufficient, but not necessary condition.

In the US, the NBER is the official designator of recession start and end points. Many recessions have started with GDP still growing.

The "Conditions for Global Recession" are even looser. "The International Monetary Fund (IMF) considers a global recession as a period where gross domestic product (GDP) growth is at 3% or less. In addition to that, the IMF looks at declines in real per-capita world GDP along with several global macroeconomic factors before confirming a global recession."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mish on Capital Account: Discussion of Social Media Panic in Italy, Soaring Yields in Spain, and the Upcoming 20th Euro Summit, Bound to be Another Failure

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 12:20 AM PDT

I had the pleasure of being back on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Monday for a discussion of social media panic in Italy, soaring yields in Spain, and the end of the line for Greece.

I come in at about the 18 minute mark, but positioned the video to automatically start play at the 17:15 mark, which is the start of the segment.

That way you can hear a brief introduction from Lauren.

For detailed information about the discussion in the above video, please see...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Japanese Smart Trashbox
Germany's 2012 Hipster Olympics
Actors Who Pose Exactly The Same
Extreme Daguerrotype Hair Styles 1850s - 1870s
Child Safety in Cars [Infographic]
The Doing-a-lot-of-Nothing Congress [infographic]

Japanese Smart Trashbox

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 05:50 PM PDT

Japanese inventor Minokur posts a video of his latest invention: the "Smart Trashbox," a battery-operated trash can that uses XBox Kinect technology to track falling pieces of trash and move around the room to catch them.

Germany's 2012 Hipster Olympics

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 05:40 PM PDT

Believe it or not there is an actual "Hipster Olympics" with actual events, such as "horn-rimmed glasses toss" and skinny jeans tog o' war" held in Germany.

Attendees wait in line to enter the second annual Hipster Olympics.

Attendees sign up to compete.

An attendee takes a photo of 'early Hipsters,' author Jack Kerouac and "Family Matters" Steve Urkel.

Participants of the "Hipster Olympiade" (Hipster Olympics) throw horn-rimmed glasses.

Participants compete in a Crate Race.

Contestants compete in an event in which they must suck the "pearls" out of a cup of the ubiquitous bubble tea.

A team celebrates after winning a round of Skinny Keans Tug O' War.

Members of the winning team, Jam FM, celebrate after winning the second annual Hipster Olympics on July 21, 2012 in Berlin, Germany.

A member of the winning team, Jam FM, celebrates after receiving his medal.

Images by Adam Berry / Getty Images
Via Buzzfeed

Actors Who Pose Exactly The Same

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 12:46 PM PDT

Maybe these actors should try a little variety when it comes to posing for their movie covers.

Extreme Daguerrotype Hair Styles 1850s - 1870s

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 12:37 PM PDT

When people think of bad hair, the '80s pop to mind but it looks like the mid to late 1800's might have them beat according to this collection of shots from Retronaut.

We're not sure we even want to think about kind of styling products were involved.

Via Retronaut

Child Safety in Cars [Infographic]

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 12:05 PM PDT

Did you know that car crashes are the #1 killer of children in America? Or that 72% of 3500 observed car and booster seats were misused in a way that could increase a child's risk of injury?

From the first car ride home from the hospital on, parents are responsible for making sure their child is safe during each car trip. The designers of this infographic uncovered above fact while researching car safety seats.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

ViaCarInsurance.org

The Doing-a-lot-of-Nothing Congress [infographic]

Posted: 24 Jul 2012 11:38 AM PDT

Lawmakers have sent only 54 bills to President Obama so far this year, making it one of the least productive sessions on record. Most of the new laws are trivial.

Click on Image to Enlarge.