Central Perk: 12 nov. 2015

joi, 12 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Bank of England Chief Economist Says "80 million US and 15 million UK Jobs to be Taken Over by Robots"
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Caught in Another Lie, Plans Mutualized Bank Guarantees
Schäuble Accuses Merkel of "Careless Actions" Warns Germany Faces "Avalanche” of Refugees; Reckless not Careless
EU Pledged to Relocate 160,000 Refugees in One Year - Results So Far, 147 in Three Months

Bank of England Chief Economist Says "80 million US and 15 million UK Jobs to be Taken Over by Robots"

Posted: 12 Nov 2015 06:08 PM PST

Bank of England's chief economist Andy Haldane joined the worry over robots parade. Eighty Million US Jobs at Risk from automation says Haldane.

Speaking at the Trades Union Congress in London, Bank of England chief economist said 80 million U.S. and 15 million U.K. jobs are in danger of being taken over by robots.

Haldane added the jobs that are most at risk from automation tend to have the lowest wage. "In other words, technology could act like a regressive income tax on the unskilled. It could further widen income disparities," he said.

"Yet the smarter machines become, the greater the likelihood that the space remaining for uniquely-human skills could shrink further," Haldane said. He said what was previously unthinkable even a decade ago is now reality, like a driverless car.

Being a central banker, Haldane further pointed out that the narrowing of slack is having less impact on wages than in the past. "That might arise because technology has made it easier and cheaper than ever before to substitute labor for capital, man for machine," he said.

Jobs at Risk

"Regressive Tax on the Unskilled"

The idea that technology is a tax on anyone is ridiculous. Technology always has, and always will enhance quality of life, with the exception of war-mongering technology.

What is clearly a regressive tax on the poor is central banks' efforts to force inflation in a deflationary world.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Caught in Another Lie, Plans Mutualized Bank Guarantees

Posted: 12 Nov 2015 11:01 AM PST

Mutualized Bank Guarantees

Although denying that was his intention, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker Plans Deposit Guarantee Fund by 2024.

Brussels is drawing up plans to gradually siphon cash away from national bank deposit guarantee schemes over the next decade to fund a new eurozone-wide insurance system, a move likely to trigger a bitter clash with Germany.

According to draft proposals from the European Commission seen by the Financial Times, the new "European Deposit Insurance Scheme" would initially serve as a back-up for national guarantee funds. But it would evolve via intermediate steps into a fully mutualised system by 2024, the documents show.

Many eurozone governments and the European Central Bank argue that a euro-area wide scheme would convince depositors their euros are safe and could never be repaid in national currencies, a fear that helped spark a bank run in Greece. But Germany has fiercely resisted any move to share risk that could leave its depositors or taxpayers on the hook for other countries' banking system.

In September the German finance ministry fired a warning shot at Brussels, circulating a paper to national capitals saying the commission's plans to introduce legislation was "unacceptable".

In an effort to placate Berlin, Jean-Claude Juncker, the commission president, last week said in a speech in Germany he was "not planning a European-wide mutualisation of deposit insurance systems" or a "mutualisation of risk". But the draft plan appears to contradict his assurance.

Germany is the only eurozone country that currently has a fully-funded national deposit guarantee scheme, although all are required to create one. Germany's politically powerful regional banks have fiercely lobbied against a non-German system.

But following deliberations among the 28 EU commissioners on Wednesday, Valdis Dombrovskis, vice-president in charge of eurozone issues, said there was now "commitment to propose first steps" towards the scheme in Brussels. The Commission is expected to publish the draft law November 24 that would then require approval from nations and the EU parliament to take effect.

Juncker Caught Again

Clearly Jean-Claude Juncker is caught in another lie. It is hardly shocking that any public bureaucrat would tell lies. But with Juncker, one should always suspect lies.

After all, Juncker is famous for saying "When it becomes serious, you have to lie".

Another Huge Warning

Juncker's latest lie is another huge warning to Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, and to all of Germany as well.

Mutualized deposits, mutualized debts, and mutualized benefits are all in the works. And as we have seen, the German constitutional court is prepared to look the other way as the march to German guarantees of Greek, Portuguese, and peripheral debt takes place.

And Schäuble cannot count on Merkel either. I strongly suggest she approves of this approach, whether she says so or not. At every critical turn, Merkel has bent to keeping the eurozone intact, no matter what it takes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Schäuble Accuses Merkel of "Careless Actions" Warns Germany Faces "Avalanche” of Refugees; Reckless not Careless

Posted: 12 Nov 2015 10:14 AM PST

Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, and someone of high enough ranking to actually matter, has had enough of chancellor Angela Merkel's reckless refugee crisis.

In his second attack on Merkel in a week, Schäuble Warns of Refugee "Avalanche".

Germany may be facing "an avalanche" of refugees triggered by "careless" actions, Wolfgang Schäuble, the country's powerful finance minister, has warned in a thinly-veiled criticism of his boss, chancellor Angela Merkel.

"You can trigger avalanches when a rather careless skier goes on to the slope ... and moves a bit of snow," said the 73-year-old finance minister at an economic conference on Wednesday evening. "I don't know whether we are already at the stage where the avalanche has reached the valley or whether we are [still] on first third of the slope [and there is more to come]."

It was Mr Schäuble's second attack on Ms Merkel's refugee policy in a week. On Sunday he defended interior minister Thomas de Maizière after Mr de Maizière was forced by Ms Merkel to withdraw plans for denying most Syrian refugees rights to bring their families to Germany.

Mr Schäuble's intervention helped to force the issue back on the agenda — and gave Mr de Maizière backing to continue arguing for it, notably in a Bundestag speech on Wednesday, when the interior minister said: "We cannot double or triple our high refugee numbers through family reunion."

In a sign of the pressure Ms Merkel faces, officials confirmed this week that on October 21 Mr de Maizière had — without telling the chancellor — reimposed the so-called "Dublin rules" for Syrians. The EU regulations allow a country, such as Germany, to return refugees to the member state in which they first arrived in the union. The suspension of these rules was the key technical change Ms Merkel made with her "refugees welcome" announcement this summer.

Ms Merkel's power is being undermined by the challenges to her refugee policy. Still, few CDU/CSU sceptics seem prepared to seriously question her leadership, focusing instead on pushing her towards a harder line.

She and Mr Schäuble worked closely as Berlin led Europe's response to the Greek crisis. But a rift emerged over the country's most recent €86bn bailout, with Mr Schäuble taking a harder line and, some believed, even agitating for a Grexit.

If Ms Merkel were forced out, Mr Schäuble's allies see him as a likely successor: he is Germany's second most powerful leader and an increasingly critical voice on refugee policy.

Mr Schäuble has repeatedly sworn his loyalty to Ms Merkel. But MPs say he cannot forget that he was groomed for the top job for years by former chancellor Helmut Kohl only to find himself embroiled in 2000 in a party financing scandal. That opened the way for the previously little-known Ms Merkel to take over the CDU party and, later, the chancellery.

Reckless not Careless

Merkel's policies are not careless, they are downright reckless.

A skier who does not know of avalanche dangers is careless. A skier who does know of the dangers and skies anyway is reckless. Similarly, accidentally not paying attention while driving is careless, texting while driving is reckless.

Merkel has intentionally disregarded repeat warnings regarding inane political decisions. She is reckless.

Schäuble Misses Boat as Well

Schäuble misses the boat as well. As I pointed out before, a policy announcement denying families the right to hook up later, is a message "Bring the Wife and Kids Now, While You Can".

Merkel's symbolic actions to replace cash assistance with vouchers for food and shelter are as useless. When you have no food and no shelter, you are going to spend free money on food and shelter. In essence, vouchers are nearly as good as cash, just less flexible.

As for interior minister Thomas de Maizière's plan to "return refugees to the member state in which they first arrived in the union" he and Schäuble need to think ahead.

I ask what the hell is Greece supposed to do with 2 million refugees? Can't anyone in Germany look ahead?

Obviously the EU's border policy rules of requiring refugees to register at the place of first entry is broken beyond repair.

That has led to fence building all over the place except where a fence is desperately needed: between Turkey and Greece, and between Turkey and Bulgaria. Those two badly needed fences will block all land access to the EU.

As late as November 5 Merkel Reaffirmed "Refugees Welcome" Policy Over Her Own Party's Objections.

Discussion of Merkel's incompetence would not be complete without mocking her pledge to relocate 160,000 refugees from Greece and other small states incapable of handing the refugee flow.

For details, please see EU Pledged to Relocate 160,000 Refugees in One Year - Results So Far, 147 in Three Months.

Do you see the irony? Germany pledged to spread around refugees in Greece, but now Mr. de Maizière reinstituted rules allowing Germany to return refugees to Greece!

Comprehensive Solution

To date, I believe I am the only one who has outlined a comprehensive solution to this madness.

Mish Proposed Strategy

Block the border between Greece and Turkey.
Block the border between Bulgaria and Turkey.
Stabilize Syria, even under Assad, but also seek promises of free Syrian elections
Eliminate the free handouts.
Give Turkey some aid for US/UK role in this mess.
Stabilize Syria. Halt all US support for alleged "moderate" Al Qaeda rebels. Instead, arm the Kurds now fighting ISIS.

Peak Merkel

On September 18, I coined the phrase "Peak Merkel".

Today, Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany's finance minister, confirmed my analysis.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

EU Pledged to Relocate 160,000 Refugees in One Year - Results So Far, 147 in Three Months

Posted: 12 Nov 2015 12:19 AM PST

More Refugee Math

Up to 6,000 refugees pour into Greece every day.
Merkel offered to help countries like Greece with pledge to relocate 160,000 refugees.
Since September, the EU's relocation effort has moved precisely 147 refugees.
By the way, 6,000 a day is 2,190,000 a year

I said Merkel's relocation plan was idiotic the moment she hatched it, but I have to admit the results are far worse than even I expected.

Floundering Migrant Policy

The Financial Times reports Europe's Leaders Struggle to Save Floundering Migrant Policy.

With up to 6,000 people pouring into Greece each day, EU leaders will rake over what has gone wrong with the bloc's response and how to cut a deal with Turkey, which has become the main stopping-off point for people trying to enter Europe.

The much-vaunted plan to contain asylum-seekers in Italy and Greece before distributing 160,000 across the bloc has been sluggish. Despite months of planning, only 147 have been relocated since it was approved in September.

The scheme was the subject of bitter political argument between Germany, which backed it, and its eastern neighbours, who opposed it. Now it is being hindered by everything from the reluctance of national capitals to provide the places, IT failures on the ground and even asylum-seekers' point-blank refusal to take part. (Last week's flight to Luxembourg was the second attempt after a previous group turned down transit to the Grand Duchy).

As chancellor Angela Merkel comes under pressure from within her own party, Germany is banking on a deal with Turkey to stem the flow of migrants from the Middle East. Berlin, along with the European Commission, has led overtures to Ankara, bearing promises ranging from €3bn in aid to Schengen visas for Turkish citizens.

with winter approaching, Mr Asselborn [Jean Asselborn, migration minister for Luxembourg, current holder of the EU's rotating presidency] seemed to grasp the need to make progress, both for the EU's overburdened member states and the thousands of migrants on the road.

"We don't just want a symbolic start, we want to get it off the ground properly," he said of the relocation scheme. "We cannot have a situation where we have a critical humanitarian situation at our borders. We cannot let people die in the cold in the Balkans."

"We Cannot Let People Die in the Balkans"

I have a simple question: Why not?

Nonetheless, let's assume that the EU has decided against that policy. What else could the EU do?

What if people could not get to the Balkans?

Mathematically speaking, if refugees cannot get to the Balkans, they won't die in the Balkans.

I suggest it's pretty easy to spot where a fence and strict border controls are needed. Instead, fences are popping up all over the place.

Slovenian Soldiers Erect Razor-Wire Border Fence to Stop Migrants

Just yesterday a new fence came into play as Slovenian Soldiers Erect Razor-Wire Border Fence to Stop Migrants.

Trucks carrying wire fencing arrived in the Slovenian village of Veliki Obrez close to the border with Croatia, with large numbers of soldiers and police guarding construction equipment.

About 180,000 people, many fleeing war in Syria, have entered Slovenia since mid-October, when Hungary erected a razor-wire fence along its southern border that forced migrants to divert westward.

Austria said last week it would build barricades at its border with Slovenia, while Hungary began installing its razor-wire barrier — up to 13 feet in height — along the Serbian border in September.

Still More Refugee Math

Instead of fencing off the key entry points, a cascade of fences is developing everywhere else.

Germany is banking on a deal with Turkey with promises ranging from €3bn in aid to Schengen visas for Turkish citizens.

That is pure rehash of a plan that cannot possibly work. Besides, Turkey long ago rejected as being insufficient.

Between 2 and 2.5 million Syrian refugees are in Turkey. And there are another 75 million Turks that just may decide they would rather be in Germany.

Merkel should be grateful Turkey turned down he offer. Instead of 2.5 million Syrians who may want in, 75 million Turks may want to relocate.

Finally note the irony in the struggle to save the "floundering migrant policy". There is nothing at all worth saving. They need to scrap the existing policy and turn away every refugee.

Until the EU takes a hard line stance like Australia, the problem will not go away.

For details of Australia's solution please see Former Australia Prime Minister Chastises EU on Securing Borders.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Falling down the quality abyss

Falling down the quality abyss

Attention stops being paid, compromises are made, quality goes down.

Expectations aren't met.

Expectations are lowered.

Customers drift away.

Budgets are cut, because there are fewer customers.

Quality erodes even more, because there's less to spend, and employees care less.

Repeat.

The alternative is the quality ratchet:

Over-focus on quality.

Expectations go up.

Sales rise as a result of word of mouth and customer satisfaction.

More money is spent on quality.

Repeat.

Often, organizations don't realize that they're falling down the abyss until extraordinary efforts are required to make a difference. But it's always easier to fix it today than it will be tomorrow.

And here's the hard part: You don't fall down the abyss all at once. You compromise, you cut corners, you don't bring as much to your work, and nothing bad happens (at first). So the feedback loop is broken.

Working your way back out works the same way: You work harder, you raise your standards, you invest, and nothing good happens (at first).

The challenge is to have the guts to care even when you're not apparently rewarded for caring.