Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 12:28 PM PST The ECB and EU want everyone to believe there will not be haircuts on sovereign government debt. The market refuses to believe that and so do I. If there was no risk of default, then government bond yields would all be the same. Instead, please follow this progression of current yields on 10-year government debt. click on any chart to see a sharper image Germany 3.237%  France 3.615%  Belgium 4.23%  Italy 4.731%  Spain 5.455%  Portugal 7.41%  Ireland 9.148%  Greece 11.859%  In spite of all the yapping by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet and others, the European sovereign debt crisis remains near its most stressed levels, and the above set of charts proves it. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
|
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 09:34 AM PST Gallup says the unemployment rate is 10.0%. However, that is a "without seasonal adjustment". On the same basis, the BLS has the January unemployment rate at 9.8%. The "official" unemployment rate from the BLS is 9.0%, seasonally adjusted. Please consider Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Up to 10.0% in Mid-February Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.0% in mid-February -- up from 9.8% at the end of January.Analysis of the Jobs Situation The best comparison of statistics is non-seasonally-adjusted numbers to the same month a year ago. I added blue circles on the charts to show. While the BLS and Gallup both have non-adjusted unemployment rate dropping nearly a percent from a year ago, the Gallup results suggest that much of that drop is from part-time hiring. To be more precise Gallup shows a .8% drop year over-year in unemployment and a rise of .6% in part-time workers wanting a full-time job. Gallup notes the year-over-year trend in unemployment is rising. This should not be surprising. Many retail companies did not let go workers in January that they hired for the Christmas season. It was on that basis I suggested last November and December we could see a couple of "hot months" at the beginning of the year. We did not see it in jobs, but it sure showed up in the large drop last month in the BLS seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate. Now, unless corporations are about to go on a hiring spree, (and I doubt they are), I would expect unemployment rate to at least tick up to the 9.5-9.6% area again. Moreover, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be 11%. Here is one final thought. How much taxpayer money is wasted by thousands of BLS workers putting out constantly-revised results when we can easily get results of high quality from the other places for far cheaper? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
|
| You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
Postări
