Central Perk: 11 nov. 2015

miercuri, 11 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Women Not Leaving the Nest in Record Numbers; Marriage and Kids, Who Can Afford Them?

Posted: 11 Nov 2015 11:17 AM PST

An interesting report by PEW shows Record Share of Young Women are Living with their Parents, Relatives.

Back in 1940, 36.2% of young women lived with their parents or relatives. That number dropped over the next couple of decades as marriage rates increased and women began joining the workforce in larger numbers, becoming financially able to live on their own.

The reasons that more women today are living with mom and dad are far different from in the 1940s: Today's young women are more likely to be college educated and unmarried than earlier generations of American women in their age group.

College students – including those enrolled part-time and at community college – are significantly more likely to live with family than young adults who are not in college. In 2014, 45% of young females in college lived with family, compared with 33% of young females not in college.

Furthermore, while marriage typically promotes living independently of parents and other relatives, many young women are delaying marriage compared with earlier decades. In 2013, young women were half as likely to be married (30%) as young women in 1940 (62%). Census figures show that in 2014, the typical woman began her first marriage at age 27. In 1940, it was 21.5.

Remaining in the nest is also a trend for young men – in fact, even more so when compared with their female peers. Last year, 42.8% of young men lived with their family, a higher share than women but not one that surpasses the highest rates on record like the women's share does.

Marriage and Kids, Who Can Afford Them?

Delaying marriage is yet another deflationary trend the Fed is fighting. The Fed's inflation tactics and government interference are largely to blame.

Wages have not kept up with education costs and for someone in college the CPI is seriously understated. In addition, union handouts and ridiculous pensions that millennials have to support but will never receive, add greatly to the problem.

Millennials also have to overpay for health care, picking up the tab for overweight boomers etc.

Finally, attitudes towards having children have changed. Many women put their careers first, a smart thing to do in my opinion. Kids, who can afford them?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Reflections on Economists and the Weather

Posted: 11 Nov 2015 09:59 AM PST

In response to Economists Blame Mild Weather For Poor Retail Sales, Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man Blog pinged me with this humorous comment ...

LOL: It's either too cold, too hot, too warm, or too right for shopping! Why is the weather seemingly never taking the forecasts of economists into account before it breaks loose?

Clearly this calls for a spot of intensified climate change action. Is there anything we could tax or regulate to death, to scare the weather into submission?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Alumni updates

Alumni updates

Over the years, I've had the extraordinary privilege of working with an all-star cast of interns, students, co-conspirators and employees. One of the thrills of my career is watching each of them go off and make a ruckus, a generous one, in the communities they care about.

I got a note from one the other day, and I thought you might want to hear about what she's doing. That led me to asking about fifty of them for an update, and without further ado (click each ellipsis for more information):

Michelle Welsch crowdfunded money to establish an education center in Nepal that provides language classes, career counseling and weekly seminars. ...

Al Pittampalli is following up his last bestseller with a new one, Persuadable, that promises to change the way we think about leadership. ...

Alex Krupp is launching a social network that lets you share great emails with everyone. ...

Allan Young is the founder of Runway and TopLine, two of the largest technology startup incubators and communities for innovators in the San Francisco Bay Area. ...

Allison Myers and her team continue to fight Big Tobacco where they enter our communities, in the retail environment. ...

Amber Rae continues to spread creativity around the world, and give people a platform to share their voice through public art. ...

Andrew Chapman is refining his venture into cause-related publishing, now exploring the idea of incorporating an app into his business model. ...

Andy Levitt's vegan meal kit business, Purple Carrot, has now expanded across the country, helping people eat more plant-based food. ...

Barrett Brooks is working to build the best place on the web to learn to build an independent business you believe in. ...

Bestselling business author Michael Parrish DuDell just finished his second book for ABC's Shark Tank and is a recognized television pundit. ...

Bonnie Diczhazy is working on fun projects for Pack with fellow alumni Megan Casey. ...

Calvin Liu continues to grow and develop Outpour, an award-winning app for honoring the special people in our lives. ...

Casper ter Kuile is convening secular communities that are playing increasingly religious functions in people's lives like CrossFit and The Dinner Party ...

Chelsea Shukov makes beautiful things with paper, so beautiful that Target has asked her to make them available to a lot of people. ...

Clay Hebert continues to help entrepreneurs, creatives and ruckusmakers fund their dreams. ...

Corey Brown is Chief Instigator at Coreyweb, a small team offering expertise from 20 years of inventing, designing, building and improving successful websites. ...

Dahna Goldstein's company, PhilanTech, was acquired and she continues to work to help social sector organizations maximize their impact. ...

Evan Kirsch continues to expand the impresario philosophy by becoming a Partner at MAKE Digital Group, a technology consulting firm allowing him to focus his efforts on educational reform and implement indispensable leadership principles through the entire organization. ...

Gil Hildebrand is leading a team of designers, developers, and marketers that supercharge some of the world's greatest brands. ...

Desiree Vargas Wrigley and GiveForward have helped keep thousands of people out of medical bankruptcy and put nearly $180M into the hands of American families when they need it the most. ...

Grant Spanier has been having conversations (on his podcast 10,000 HOURS) with some of the most interesting creative people in the world for two years now. ...

Rachel Simpson is continuing to work on Google Chrome - focusing on making important things easy and delightful to use. ...

Jeremy Wilson is continuing to connect his tribe and spread stories of inspiration through yoga classes he teaches in Chicago. ...

Jess Pillmore's living out loud with her revolution in sustainable artistry, provoking the arts and education to embrace play, ownership, and desiring the impossible. ...

Jessica Lawrence continues to build community through her leadership of NY Tech Meetup, a 47,000 member non-profit organization and the world's largest Meetup group. ...

Jonathan Van is continuing to help entrepreneurs build venture backed companies with great tools and investment. ...

Katrina Razavi has channeled her passion for communication skills and self-improvement into a blog that helps people improve their social confidence. ...

Kristina Villarini took her love for building community and amplifying voices to GLSEN, the leading national education nonprofit focused on keeping schools safe and affirming in grades K-12. ...

Leanne Hilgart's ethical fashion label VAUTE is one of the first private fashion brands to raise money from their biggest fans, with a goal to set a new standard of ethics in fashion. ...

Leslie Madsen-Brooks directs the IDEA Shop at Boise State, where she and her team help faculty use emerging technologies to develop novel learning experiences. ...

Liz Bohannon's ethical fashion company experienced record growth this year and continues to create opportunity for women and girls in East Africa. ...

Matt Frazier built thriving vegan running groups around the world, connecting no-meat athletes in places as unlikely as Oklahoma City and as far away as Sydney, Australia. ...

Matt Radcliffe uses his multi-faceted talents to produce and support live performance art in Colorado Springs. ...

McKenzie Cerri and team continue to transform the way teachers communicate, inspire and support their students, by embedding coaching-cultures in schools. ...

Phoebe Espiritu is midway through 25x52.com, an initiative to launch 25 projects in 52 weeks. Among the projects is Project Moccasin, a mentorship program where applicants get to spend a day at work with a design, product or entrepreneurial mentor. ...

Mike Ambassador Bruny continues to work on making a difference at work with his latest podcast, No More Reasonable Doubt, geared towards young professionals of color. ...

Nicola Gammon continues to grow Shoot to transform the way we garden. ...

Noah Weiss is the SVP of Product Management at Foursquare, where he's helping build software that make cities more fun and easier to use. ...

Paul Jun is continuing his coaching for the altMBA, and inspired by the students' growth, he started a project in rebranding his platform (ships November 15th). ...

Rebecca Rodskog is enabling organizations to think about the future of work, be more innovative, and help them create environments where their employees can thrive. ...

Rebecca Shomair founded an art fundraising event that is now held across the US raising over a million dollars for the Anti-Defamation League. ...

Reggie Black contines to share his art in non-traditional spaces with people around the world, redefining how we interact with inspiration. ...

Sean O'Connor has launched a new edtech platform that makes tutoring more affordable and accessible. ...

Sharon Rowe is collaborating on #MagicAndMayhem: a speaking platform to inspire entrepreneurs, powered by women telling their real stories of launching multimillion dollar businesses. ...

Stefy Cohen is working in Latin America to promote entrepreneurship & innovation through her series of talks, courses, and events. ...

Susan Danziger launched Ziggeo, the leading recorded video technology, a powerful way to gather videos from applicants. ...

Willie Jackson is creating a space for black men (and women) to connect with opportunities, jobs, and each other. ...

This is what it means to make a ruckus, to do work that matters and to ship your art. Wow.