Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Italian PM Calls Vote of Confidence; 70,000 Protest in Rome Against Austerity; Strikers Shut Down Transport; European Stocks at July 2009 Levels
- Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Hits 88.48%; No Comments from Trichet, ECB, or EU
- Switzerland to "Buy Foreign Currency in Unlimited Quantities", Sets Euro Peg 1.20; Extreme Mid-Day Currency Volatility; Gold is Safe Haven, Not Francs
- Economic Crossroads of Immense Consequences: Will Governments and Central Bankers Bail Out Bondholders and Banks (again), or the Public at Large?
Posted: 06 Sep 2011 12:42 PM PDT Attention turns to the German courts tomorrow for a ruling on the legality of bailouts. Today, eyes are on Italy. Italian PM Calls Vote of Confidence Bloomberg reports Berlusconi Cabinet Will Call for Confidence Vote on Revised Austerity Plan Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi called a Cabinet meeting today to authorize a confidence vote in Parliament on an amended 45.5 billion-euro ($64.5 billion) austerity plan that prompted a general strike.Italian Workers Strike Against Austerity Measures The New York Times reports Italian Workers Strike Against Austerity Measures Thousands of workers took to the streets in Italy on Tuesday in a general strike to protest a package of ever-changing austerity measures required by the European Central Bank and now up for debate in the Italian Senate.Expect Hit to Tourism One of Italy's bright spots is tourism. Don't expect that to last if transportation disruptions become the norm. European Stocks Lowest in Two Years Please consider European Stocks Drop to Two-Year Low; Shell, Lloyds Lead Decline European stocks declined for a second day, dragging the Stoxx Europe 600 Index to the lowest in two years, amid concern that the global economy is slowing.Euro Bonds Aren't Happening Anytime Soon, If Ever This is the third reported euro-bond rally attempt in a few week. Here's the real deal: they aren't happening. Italy Bond Yields Relatively Quiet Yield on Italian 10-Year government bonds was relatively quiet on a day of massive turmoil elsewhere related to Swiss Franc intervention (see Switzerland to "Buy Foreign Currency in Unlimited Quantities", Sets Euro Peg 1.20; Extreme Mid-Day Currency Volatility; Gold is Safe Haven, Not Francs) No Confidence Stunt Berlusconi's approval rating is 22%. Nonetheless, he will survive a vote of no confidence because for now, he has over 50% of the votes in Parliament. That Berlusconi needs to pull this stunt is certainly not confidence inspiring. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Greek 1-Year Bond Yield Hits 88.48%; No Comments from Trichet, ECB, or EU Posted: 06 Sep 2011 11:37 AM PDT Greek one-year bonds march relentlessly towards a yield of 100%. No Comments from Trichet, ECB, or EU During this massive spike, there has been no comment from outgoing ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet, incoming ECB president Mario Drahgi, or for that matter anyone in the ECB or EU regarding Greek bond yields and the implications of this move. Here is some advice for Trichet and Drahgi: If you ignore a default, it will not go away. Not that Trichet is listening, but I offered additional advice in Trichet Warns Heads of States; Italian President Warns "Markets Lost Confidence in Italy"; IMF Warns again on Bank Capitalization; Mish Warns Trichet Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 06 Sep 2011 06:20 AM PDT In a stunning morning press release, Swiss National Bank sets minimum exchange rate at CHF 1.20 per euro The current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.Line in the Sand Reuters Reports Swiss draw line in the sand to weaken franc Using some of the strongest language from a central bank in the modern era, the SNB said it would no longer tolerate an exchange rate below 1.20 francs to the euro and would defend the target by buying other currencies in unlimited quantities.Gold, is Safe Haven, Not Francs At 1:25 AM today I wrote Gold Hits New High of $1920; Miners Should Follow. When I wrote that, I had no idea fireworks would hit about an hour later. First, take a look at what I said: It only took 7 sessions to take back a sharp $200 plunge about a week ago.The fireworks started an hour or so later. Here are some charts to consider. Swiss Franc 15-Minute Chart US$ Index 15-Minute Chart Gold 15-Minute Chart Unlike the Swiss Franc, Gold continued on its merry way in the face of competitive currency debasement. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 06 Sep 2011 01:48 AM PDT As noted previously, it is crystal clear to everyone but bankers and brain-dead analysts that banks need to be recapitalized, in Europe and the US as well. The crucial question is "how?". In 2008, US taxpayers bailed out AIG (Goldman Sachs really), Fannie Mae, Citigroup, Bank of America and scores more financial corporations of all sizes, too numerous to mention. Why? Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, and a parade of bankers and ex-Goldman employees all said this had to be done to spur lending. It was a lie. The bailouts were nothing but a gigantic transfer-of-wealth scheme from the poor to the wealthy. Banks are not lending because they are still capital impaired, even after the massive bailouts and Fed reflation efforts. Worse yet, corporations do not want to expand because the underlying problem of consumer debt has not gone away. Similar Setup in Europe A similar setup is underway in Europe, except it's sovereign debt not mortgages in the spotlight. As in the US, the ECB will not agree to let bondholders take a substantial hit, even though it is perfectly obvious Greece will default. Greek 1-Year Yield Hits 82% If 82% interest rates do not scream default, nothing does. Yet Trichet and the Central Banks do nothing but insist on more austerity measures for Greece. Yes, Greece has structural problems and they need to be fixed, but where is the written rule "Investing is Winning"? Investing and Speculation have Risks Investing and speculation have risks. Those who take risks should take responsibility, not taxpayers. I salute Iceland and its taxpayers for telling the ECB, the IMF, and the rest of Europe to go to hell. The Icelandic economy is now in repair. Eurozone Torture In sharp contrast, Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Italy have nothing but torture to look forward to for the rest of the decade if taxpayers have to foot the bill for stupid loans made by banks. The rationalization "we need to bail out the banks so they can make loans" has been disproved in spades. Of course anyone with any common sense knew it was a lie in the first place. Will Bondholders Be Bailed Out Again? Whether bondholders get bailed out again is the critical question. John Hussman picks up the discussion in An Imminent Downturn: Whom Will Our Leaders Defend? The global economy is at a crossroad that demands a decision - whom will our leaders defend? One choice is to defend bondholders - existing owners of mismanaged banks, unserviceable peripheral European debt, and lenders who misallocated capital by reaching for yield and fees by making mortgage loans to anyone with a pulse. Defending bondholders will require forced austerity in government spending of already depressed economies, continued monetary distortions, and the use of public funds to recapitalize poor stewards of capital. It will do nothing for job creation, foreclosure reduction, or economic recovery.Stimulus By the way, unlike Hussman, I think the best stimulus measures would come from structural changes such as scrapping prevailing wage laws, slashing military spending, and ending collective bargaining of public unions, combined with a serious overhaul of Medicare. If we are going to revamp infrastructure, it should be done sensibly and at the lowest cost possible to taxpayers. That means scrapping Davis-Bacon for sure. Should Greece Exit the Euro? Hussman writes "Ultimately, my impression is that it would serve Greece best to exit the Euro, but it appears too late for this to be graceful." One might wonder what the consequences of that action might be. In Euro break-up – the consequences UBS addresses that very issue. It's a 21 page PDF that interestingly begins with the statement "The Euro should not exist". That's a true statement but the reason as UBS explains "the Euro as it is currently constituted – with its current structure and current membership – should not exist. This Euro creates more economic costs than benefits for at least some of its members – a fact that has become painfully obvious to some of its participants in recent years." Simply put, currency unions without fiscal ties have never worked and the Eurozone as it exists today will not work either. The report goes through an analysis of the costs if a strong nation pulls out (say Germany) and a weak nation pulls out (say Greece). In the case of Germany leaving, the report states "If a strong economy like Germany leaves the Euro there arenon-currency trade consequences. The exit from the European Union raises potential trade barriers and border disruption. Further, the exit causes a growth shock to the rump Euro, which undermines the export potential." This is the same conclusion of Michael Pettis as noted in Long-Term Outlook for China, Europe, and the World; 12 Global Predictions. Here are predictions 10-11. 10. Spain, other PIIGS Leave EuroDo monetary unions break up without civil wars? UBS tackles an interesting question "Do monetary unions break up without civil wars?" It takes enormous stress for a government to get to the point where it considers abandoning the lex monetae of a country. The disruption that would follow such a move is also going to be extreme. The costs are high – whether it is a strong or a weak country leaving – in purely monetary terms. When the unemploymentThe likelihood of civil war seems remote. However, I agree with the UBS statement "it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences" Investing in a break-up scenario Inquiring minds may be wondering how to play this from an investment standpoint. UBS concludes ... Our base case for the Euro is that the monetary union will hold together, with some kind of fiscal confederation (providing automatic stabilisers to economies, not transfers to governments).Zero Hedge offers more comments in UBS Quantifies Costs Of Euro Break Up, Warns Of Collapse Of Banking System And Civil War Warnings Everywhere In case you missed it, please consider Trichet Warns Heads of States; Italian President Warns "Markets Lost Confidence in Italy"; IMF Warns again on Bank Capitalization; Mish Warns Trichet Breakup or Not, Avoid Euro Assets UBS does not think a breakup will happen. I think a breakup is quite likely, as does Michael Pettis. Timing is uncertain. Regardless, avoidance of Euro assets seems wise for multiple reasons.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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