Central Perk: 29 nov. 2015

duminică, 29 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Amazon Unveils New Drone Prototype for 30-Minute Deliveries; Google Seeks Drone Deliveries by 2017
Warmonger Senators McCain and Graham Want 20,000 More US Troops in Syria and Iraq
German Economist Concludes Refugees Will Ultimately Cost Germany €900 Billion

Amazon Unveils New Drone Prototype for 30-Minute Deliveries; Google Seeks Drone Deliveries by 2017

Posted: 29 Nov 2015 10:21 PM PST

Drone delivery is coming, and faster than most think.

Time Magazine disagrees. Time proclaims Here's Why Drone Delivery Won't Be Reality Any Time Soon

Time notes the FAA will not have anything to do with autonomous deliveries other than line-of-sight, but I expect regulations will be worked out soon enough.

Countries like Canada and the UK are ahead of the US in addressing regulations, and history suggests that such pressure and demand from consumers is all it will take to get the US to catch up.

New Drone Prototype

Video of New Drone

Link if video does not play: Amazon Prime Air

30-Minute Deliveries

Please consider Amazon Unveils New Hybrid Drone Prototype to Make Deliveries Within 30 Minutes.

Amazon has unveiled a new hybrid delivery drone that can fly both vertically, as a helicopter capable of landing in customers' backyards, and horizontally like a conventional plane. The drone can travel up to 15 miles at high speed.

The hybrid is conceived as the prototype workhorse for Amazon Prime, the futuristic delivery service that aspires to carry purchases to customers within 30 minutes of an order.

The retail giant hopes that safety features built into the vehicle, including "detect and avoid" sensors that Amazon says allow the drone to fly around obstacles, will overcome concerns from government regulators – some of whom have proven resistant to the idea of delivery drones – and customers.

Earlier this year, at an unidentified location in Canada, the Guardian witnessed versions of the hybrid being tested. As a result of reluctance at the US regulator the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to allow commercial drones to fly beyond line of sight, the drone delivery team, led by Gur Kimchi, had been forced to decamp across the border.

Other governments have been notably more receptive to the idea of semi-autonomous drones. The UK's equivalent of the FAA, the Civil Aviation Authority, has indicated it is open to the idea of delivery drones flying beyond line of sight.

Amazon's new hybrid bird has eight rotors, assembled in pairs, that provide the helicopter-style vertical thrust. In addition there is a larger blade situated at the back of the plane, giving forward horizontal movement.

The helicopter function would be used to take the vehicle up to elevation, and then down to a customer's doorstep or yard. Once the horizontal motor is engaged, the drone would fly at up to 60mph, allowing rapid delivery.

The hybrid aeroplane has long been an aspiration of flight engineers and it already exists in various large-scale vehicles, including the military Osprey. Amazon's prototype is believed to be the first effective hybrid achieved in a small unmanned drone of under 55lb.

Google Seeks Drone Deliveries by 2017

Also consider Google Aims for Drone Deliveries by 2017.

David Vos, the leader for Google's Project Wing, said his company was in talks with the Federal Aviation Administration and other stakeholders about setting up an air traffic control system for drones that would use cellular and internet technology to co-ordinate unmanned aerial vehicle flights at altitudes under 500ft (152m).

"Our goal is to have commercial business up and running in 2017," he told an audience at an air traffic control convention near Washington.

Google and Amazon are among companies that have said they want to use drones for deliveries. The FAA is expected to publish final rules for commercial drone operations early next year.

Vos said a drone registry, which the Obama administration hopes to set in place by 20 December, would be a first step towards a system that could use wireless telecommunications and other technology including cellphone apps to identify drones and keep them clear of other aircraft and controlled airspace.

He said Google would like to see low altitude "Class G" airspace carved out for drones, saying it would keep UAV away from most manned aircraft aside from low-flying helicopters, while enabling drones to fly over highly populated areas.

"There's a lot that can be done in this market space," Vos said.

I side with Vos. Technology marches on. Demand from customers and country-to-country competition ensures the nay-sayers like Time are simply wrong.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Warmonger Senators McCain and Graham Want 20,000 More US Troops in Syria and Iraq

Posted: 29 Nov 2015 06:40 PM PST

Presidential candidate Lindsey Graham and warmonger-in-chief John McCain both seek more US ground troops in Syria and Iraq. They want 20,000 more to be precise. Half of them would be advisers.

The Guardian reports, John McCain and Lindsey Graham call for 20,000 troops in Syria and Iraq.

Two senior senators called on Sunday for Washington to nearly triple military force levels in Iraq to 10,000 and send an equal number of troops to Syria as part of a multinational ground force to counter Islamic State in both countries.

McCain, chairman of the Senate armed services committee, recently proposed intervention in Syria by a European and Arab ground force backed by 10,000 US military advisers and trainers.

On Sunday, he and Graham told reporters during a visit to Baghdad that US personnel could provide logistical and intelligence support to a proposed 100,000-strong force from Sunni Arab countries like Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Graham said special forces would also be included.

US counter-terrorism experts have warned that deploying ground troops risks backfiring by feeding Isis's apocalyptic narrative that it is defending Islam against an assault by the west and its authoritarian Arab allies.

McCain said it would be possible but not easy to rally Arab allies to contribute to the proposed ground force in Syria.

The senators said removing Assad, who is backed by Russia and Iran, was key to getting Arab Sunni states to back the proposed ground force.

Out of Their Minds

Both Senators are clearly out of their minds.

10,000 advisers out of 20,000 US troops? In a proposed 100,000 multinational force? Do we really need 1 adviser for every US soldier? Do we need 1 adviser for every 10 troops overall? Is it remotely possible for a coalition of the willing to agree to send 100,000 troops to Iraq and Syria?

And by what right does the US get to decide who or should not rule Syria? Didn't the US make a complete mess in Iraq and Libya with nation building?

And wouldn't taking out Assad risk a major confrontation with Russia? Or is that precisely what they hope?

These guys are among the worst the Republican party has to offer.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

German Economist Concludes Refugees Will Ultimately Cost Germany €900 Billion

Posted: 29 Nov 2015 08:36 AM PST

In contrast to the absurd Keynesian position that refugees will pay for themselves via higher growth rates, German economist Bernd Raffelhüschen estimates that over the long haul Refugees Will Cost Germany €900 billion.

Via translation ... Bernd Raffelhüschen, director of the Research Center for Generational Contracts totals the cost of all government spending on refugees, including social insurance, over the life of a refugee.

At his Market Economy Foundation presentation, Raffelhüschen stated that "even with an integration of migrants into the labor market within six years, administrative fees in the long term will cost 900 billion euros."

The article did not say the number of migrants on which the number was based, or whether the influx would continue and at what pace.

If one assumes 4 million total refugees, then each refugee would cost €225,000. Spread out over 30 years, the cost would be €7,500 per year.

I am not sure I buy the notion the cost will be that much "even with an integration of migrants into the labor market within six years". Then again, I am quite confident a big percentage of the migrants will not be in the labor force within six years.

If Angela Merkel does not like Raffelhüschen's numbers, then she should publish her own. Of course politicians never want to put a realistic price tag on their pet projects.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock