Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Is Inflation the Legacy of the Federal Reserve?
- What Bernanke Didn't Say About Housing (And Everything Else); Bernanke's Ploy
- Elizabeth Warren Grills Bernanke on "Too Big to Fail" Policy
- Nobody Can't See Nothin'
- France Unemployment Highest Since 1997
| Is Inflation the Legacy of the Federal Reserve? Posted: 27 Feb 2013 09:39 PM PST In testimony to Congress on February 27, Bernanke bragged that inflation under his and Greenspan's watch was a mere 2% a year. Of course Bernanke ignored a housing boom and bust. He also ignored a a dotcom boon and bust, a global financial crisis, numerous bank bailouts, and a policy of "too big to fail" that is now "even bigger". Fed Inflation A Bloomberg video exposes Bernanke as nothing but a charlatan. Please consider Hockey Stick Inflation. Inflation Targeting at 2% Per Year Bernanke brags about a 2% inflation rate as if it is something to brag about. It's not. This is what it looks like over time. Inflation Targeting at 2% a Year  click on any chart for sharper image Hockey Stick Inflation  Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita  See the Problem? Hopefully so, because it's obvious. The moment (for any reason) wages stop rising at the rate of inflation, the system is in stress. Why might wages stop rising? Global wage arbitrage is certainly one reason. Even if that did not happen, income skew comes into play. Wages of the top 10% rise far faster than the wages of everyone else. As proof, I present Top 1% Received 121% of Income Gains During the Recovery, Bottom 99% Lose .4%; How, Why, Solutions Also consider "Too Big To Fail" and other inept government policies as noted in Obama's Infrastructure Mania; Why It's Not Justifiable (And What To Do About It) The Source of Inflation If you are looking for "THE" source of inflation, look no further than the Fed, fractional reserve lending, and government policies that benefit those with first access to money (namely the banks and the already wealthy). Bernanke has the gall to brag about his 2% inflation fighting "achievement", ignoring numerous boom-bust cycles, bank bailouts, and income skew. The ultimate irony is the Fed and its inflationary policies is the primary reason inflation exists at all. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish Click on Image to Learn More  |
| What Bernanke Didn't Say About Housing (And Everything Else); Bernanke's Ploy Posted: 27 Feb 2013 07:40 PM PST Caroline Baum had some interesting comments about Bernanke's testimony before Congress in her writeup What Bernanke Didn't Say About Housing. One of the more interesting exchanges at Ben Bernanke's testimony to the Financial Services Committee today was the one between the Federal Reserve chairman and Representative Scott Garrett, a Republican from New Jersey.Bernanke's Ploy Bernanke's ploy (as with every central banker) is to absolve themselves of blame for the problems they inevitably cause. Earlier I noted an exchange between Bernanke and Elizabeth Warren that caught Bernanke off guard (see Elizabeth Warren Grills Bernanke on "Too Big to Fail" Policy). Baum mentioned another one above, and I have a third below. Sparks Fly: Bernanke Asked to Cut the "Ton of Fat" Please consider this interesting video between Representative Sean Duffy, a Republican from Wisconsin, confronts Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about cutting the `fat' in the budget. Link if video does not play Sparks Fly: Bernanke Asked to Cut the "Ton of Fat" Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Elizabeth Warren Grills Bernanke on "Too Big to Fail" Policy Posted: 27 Feb 2013 12:06 PM PST Inquiring minds are watching Bernanke squirm under pressure from Senator Elizabeth Warren who complains "Too Big To Fail" is now bigger than ever before. Partial Transcript Warren: These big financial institutions are getting cheaper borrowing to the tune of $83 billion in a single year, simply because people believe government would step in and bail them out. And, I'm just saying, if they're getting it, why aren't they paying for it? Bernanke: I think we should get rid of it. Warren: Alright. I'll ask the other question. You were here in July, and you said you commended Dodd-Frank for providing a blueprint to get rid of "Too Big to Fail". We've now understood this problem for nearly five years, so when are we going to get rid of "Too Big to Fail"? Bernanke: Well, some of the you know uh as we've been discussing, some of these rules take time to develop. Uh, uh. ...." It's safe to say Bernanke was not prepared for this line of questioning. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 27 Feb 2013 10:19 AM PST As expected (in this corner but certainly not from economic cheerleaders masquerading as economists), eurozone retail sales are plunging across the board, even in Germany. Let's take a look at a few key reports. France The Markit France Retail PMI shows sharpest drop in sales for six months. Key Points:Italy The Markit Italy Retail PMI shows Retail sector remains firmly in contraction. Key points:Germany The Markit Germany Retail PMI shows Renewed decline in German retail sales. Key Points:Eurozone Composite The Markit Eurozone Retail PMI shows Record year-on-year fall in Eurozone retail sales in February. Key points:Abysmal (And Going to Get Worse) I certainly see no reason to change my forecast that eurozone GDP will contract far greater than economists foresee, led by France and Germany. As noted a month ago, the "Core" of Europe was down to Germany. Analysts and economists will soon discover "Europe is Rotten to the Core" Mario Draghi did not save Europe with his LTRO program, all he did was delay the inevitable, and at a huge cost too. One cost can be seen in the Italian elections where voters have had enough of Super Mario Monti, sweeping the technocrat prime minister out of office in a massive rout led by a surge in eurosceptic vote for Beppe Grillo. (See Youth Vote Propels Five Star Movement Into First Place as Largest Political Party in Italy). In France, and also as expected in this corner Unemployment Highest Since 1997. French GDP estimates have been twice revised lower. They will be revised lower yet again. How much more pain Greece, Italy, and Spain are willing to take remains to be seen, but it isn't infinite. Eventually Will Come a Time I repeat my November 23, 2011 warning Eventually, Will Come a Time When .... Eventually, there will come a time when a populist office-seeker will stand before the voters, hold up a copy of the EU treaty and (correctly) declare all the "bail out" debt foisted on their country to be null and void. That person will be elected.When that does happen, expect to hear "Nobody could possibly have seen this coming!" Clearly we need a new definition of "nobody" because "nobody" saw the rise of Beppe Grillo's Five Star Movement, and of course "nobody" saw the housing crash coming either. Clearly, nobody can't see nothin'. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com "Wine Country" Economic Conference Hosted By Mish Click on Image to Learn More |
| France Unemployment Highest Since 1997 Posted: 26 Feb 2013 11:53 PM PST In the easy to see coming category (thanks to the socialist policies of French president Francois Hollande) French unemployment level hits 15-year high. Unemployment numbers in France rose by 43,000 in January to 3.16 million, an increase of 10.7 percent from last year, the labour ministry revealed on Tuesday. The figure is at its highest since January 1997, when it reached 3.19 million.This is going to be a bleak year for Europe, with France leading the way. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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