joi, 17 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Silence is Golden

Posted: 17 Oct 2013 03:48 PM PDT

The message of the day comes from the Fed currency crank Charles Evans who wants to continue QE because "incoming information has been silenced with the federal government shutdown."

Evans' statement is in reference to nearly useless reports from the BLS and BEA that have not come out since the shutdown.

Bloomberg reports Fed's Evans Sees QE Tapering Postponed After Data Shutdown
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans, an outspoken advocate of pressing on with Fed stimulus, said the central bank should not begin reducing the pace of asset purchases as the data used to gauge the economy's health stopped during the government shutdown.

"Only the data can tell us how much progress we've made and they aren't saying much right now," Evans said today in a speech prepared for delivery in Madison, Wisconsin. "The data available in September were inconclusive, and since then, incoming information has been silenced with the federal government shutdown."

"It is not yet time to remove accommodation," Evans said at the 2013 Wisconsin Real Estate and Economic Outlook Conference. "The data are still not definitive enough to say that now is time to adjust the QE3 flow purchase rate."

In response to audience questions, Evans said the Fed would likely need "a couple of meetings to assess" the economy and await data that present a picture of how the economy weathered the shutdown.

"I also would need to see more steady, solid growth in gross domestic product to be confident that the labor market gains would not be undone by a drop in businesses' demand for labor," Evans said.

The government had planned to release its jobs report updating statistics on the labor market on Oct. 4. The report was postponed by the shutdown and has not been rescheduled for release.
Musical Tribute



Link if video does not play: The Tremeloes - Silence is Golden

Question of the Day

With all these currency cranks on the Fed, and with incoming Fed chairperson Janet Yellen more dovish than Ben Bernanke, how can you dislike gold?

Addendum:

Here is a comment from a friend that I agree with: "I have thought lately how nice it has been without the noise from all the different economic reports while the government has been shut down. If it was up to me, I'd keep it that way..."

I made a similar comment in Is Gathering Real Time "Inflation" Data With Smart Phones a "Game Changer"? 

Instead of bringing back laid off BEA and BLS workers let's get rid of them. Gallup can easily track unemployment and this firm can better track consumer  prices.

Any technology with a capability of eliminating government workers is fine by me, but unless that actually happens, "game changer" is a bit of a stretch.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Unsustainable Social Security Promises: Spain vs. U.S.

Posted: 17 Oct 2013 11:18 AM PDT

I have written numerous times about pension problems in the US. Let's cross the Atlantic and take a peek at the setup in Spain, then let's compare the two setups.

Via translation from Libre Mercado, please consider The Chart That Will Shake Future Pensioners.

Workers vs. Pensioners


Given that eight million people age 65 and 16.7 million workers cannot sustain the current pension, imagine what will happen in the coming decades as the differential goes back even closer.

Pensions today promise Social Security payments of 100% of the average wage in the last 25 years for those with 37 years of Social Security contributions. Such payments are absolutely unsustainable. The relative income of pensioners relative to the average income of the society will sink (without massive tax looting of active workers).

Immigration could partially alleviate the problem, making the demographic transition somewhat smoother, but if new rights accrue to future pensions, immigration only delays the problem. In any case, it might be a good idea to allow free immigration to Spain in exchange for not accrue rights to Social Security.

The most important practical advice to draw from the above chart is simple: save and invest. If you trust your retirement to politicians, you will end up poor and feeling cheated.

US vs. Spain

Here are a few charts from my January 8, 2013 post Social Security Trends: Beneficiaries, Total Costs, Number of Workers, Ratio of Workers to Beneficiaries

Social Security Beneficiaries, Costs, Employment

Year Beneficiaries Average Monthly BenefitTotal Annual CostEmploymentE/B Ratio
Dec-6722,979$73.92 $20,383,201,682 66,9002.9114
Dec-6823,886$85.24 $24,432,839,002 69,2452.8989
Dec-6924,709$86.47 $25,638,687,737 71,2402.8832
Dec-7025,701$101.35 $31,257,463,769 70,7902.7544
Dec-7126,817$113.22 $36,435,282,006 72,1082.6888
Dec-7228,066$138.70 $46,712,482,840 75,2702.6819
Dec-7329,514$143.99 $50,996,092,215 78,0352.6440
Dec-7430,576$163.02 $59,813,483,661 77,6572.5398
Dec-7531,862$179.29 $68,549,741,469 78,0172.4486
Dec-7632,835$194.95 $76,815,361,682 80,4482.4500
Dec-7733,923$211.16 $85,958,416,484 84,4082.4882
Dec-7834,453$229.86 $95,032,473,435 88,6742.5738
Dec-7935,013$258.37 $108,555,575,502 90,6692.5896
Dec-8035,526$300.75 $128,213,644,374 90,9362.5597
Dec-8135,930$340.84 $146,956,770,724 90,8842.5295
Dec-8235,778$372.10 $159,755,010,234 88,7562.4808
Dec-8336,034$393.15 $170,001,091,973 92,2102.5590
Dec-8436,439$412.21 $180,244,135,062 96,0872.6370
Dec-8537,027$429.35 $190,768,953,436 98,5872.6626
Dec-8637,683$438.76 $198,407,802,022 100,4842.6665
Dec-8738,171$461.35 $211,323,314,397 103,6342.7150
Dec-8838,613$484.01 $224,268,374,172 106,8712.7678
Dec-8939,141$511.89 $240,431,129,294 108,8092.7799
Dec-9039,825$544.52 $260,224,095,454 109,1202.7400
Dec-9140,587$568.55 $276,908,006,552 108,2622.6674
Dec-9241,504$588.90 $293,296,976,201 109,4162.6363
Dec-9342,243$607.48 $307,943,241,597 112,2042.6561
Dec-9442,882$628.14 $323,229,663,108 116,0552.7064
Dec-9543,386$648.77 $337,772,228,816 118,2082.7246
Dec-9643,736$672.81 $353,113,695,411 121,0022.7666
Dec-9743,971$692.82 $365,565,297,977 124,3572.8282
Dec-9844,246$707.39 $375,585,941,872 127,3592.8785
Dec-9944,595$730.53 $390,940,040,819 130,5332.9270
Dec-0045,415$767.35 $418,187,686,581 132,4812.9171
Dec-0145,877$795.69 $438,050,881,510 130,7202.8493
Dec-0246,444$815.05 $454,253,081,458 130,1752.8028
Dec-0347,038$840.62 $474,497,794,254 130,2592.7692
Dec-0447,688$871.80 $498,889,778,321 132,3162.7746
Dec-0548,434$915.71 $532,222,768,675 134,8142.7834
Dec-0649,123$955.53 $563,260,007,133 136,8822.7865
Dec-0749,865$987.03 $590,618,750,824 137,9822.7671
Dec-0850,898$1,054.38 $643,995,009,294 134,3792.6401
Dec-0952,523$1,064.41 $670,869,765,261 129,3192.4621
Dec-1054,032$1,074.33 $696,579,633,240 130,3462.4124
Dec-1155,404$1,122.89 $746,557,638,566 132,1862.3858
Dec-1256,758$1,152.79 $785,163,217,034 134,0212.3613


Notes for Above Table

  • Employment and beneficiary numbers are in thousands.
  • I computed the total annual cost as monthly benefit * 12 * number of beneficiaries. That method will tend to overstate annual costs slightly vs. totaling every month individually. Thus, the total cost may vary slightly from other published figures.

Average Monthly Social Security Benefit



Total Annual Cost of Social Security 1967-Present



Social Security Beneficiaries vs. Total Non-Farm Employment



Ratio of Workers to Social Security Beneficiaries



Social Security Benefits Analysis

  • The ratio of workers to beneficiaries peaked in 1999 at 2.927 to 1.
  • The ratio of workers to beneficiaries was 2.361 to 1 at the end of 2012.
  • The ratio of workers to beneficiaries is falling fast and will continue to fall fast for a decade as the baby boomer population ages.
  • The average payout and the number of payouts are both rising fast
  • Total Social Security payouts (a multiplication of two rising numbers) are on an unsustainable exponential growth path.

The system is currently running a deficit. Trends say that deficit is going to worsen with each passing year unless benefits are cut and/or taxes are hiked.

The next chart is courtesy of Reader Tim Wallace in a January 11, post.

Social Security Burden on Non-Farm Workers



Social Security Cliff Reading


Tip of the Iceberg

Unfortunately, Social Security is just a tip of the unsustainable payout promises problem. Public union pensions are trillions of dollars underfunded and several cities in California have gone bankrupt over those promises.

Detroit went bankrupt for the same reason as did Central Falls, Rhode Island (see Central Falls Set to File Bankruptcy Exit Plan; 50% Pension Reductions, 40% Slash in Police and Fire Budgets Coming Up).

Zombified Cities


Vallejo Round Two

Vallejo, California went bankrupt about two years ago and is headed there again because it did not shed pension promises in bankruptcy: Vallejo, Mired in Pension Debt Again; Lesson for Stockton and Detroit - Shed Those Pension Obligations Now!

As I said in the above link, Stockton and Detroit have a choice. They can cut pensions now, or cut them later in a second bankruptcy, just like Vallejo will.

Pension Promises Not Sacrosanct

Yet people keep emailing me that pension are guaranteed by law. Tell that to residents of Central Falls. Their pensions were cut 50% in bankruptcy.

Here's reality: haircuts are coming. Unions need to negotiate benefit cuts now, in a sensible manner (with the highest beneficiaries taking the biggest cuts). The alternative is across the board benefit cuts à la Central Falls.

Meanwhile please consider the solid advice from Libre Mercado:

"The most important practical advice to draw from the above chart is simple: save and invest. If you trust your retirement to politicians [or promises], you will end up poor and feeling cheated."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Gruesome Halloween Decorations Cause Controversy

Posted: 17 Oct 2013 10:39 AM PDT

Mustang, Oklahoma resident Johnnie Mullins scared his neighbors with this Halloween prank. Some of them even called 911.














Russian Girls Before and After Makeup

Posted: 17 Oct 2013 09:20 AM PDT

Photos of girls from Saint Petersburg, Russia before and after makeup. It does change a lot.












Reopening Our Government

Here's What's Happening Here at the White House
 
 
 
 
 
 
  Featured

Reopening Our Government

Last night, President Obama signed legislation to reopen our government and pay our bills.

"Because Democrats and responsible Republicans came together, the first government shutdown in 17 years is now over," he said today in the State Dining Room. "The first default in more than 200 years will not happen. These twin threats to our economy have been lifted."

Click here to watch President Obama speak.

Check out President Obama's remarks

 

  Top Stories

President Obama Awards the Medal of Honor to Captain William Swenson

President Obama presented the Medal of Honor to U.S. Army Captain William Swenson for his courageous actions while serving as an Embedded Trainer and Mentor of the Afghan National Security Forces with Afghan Border Police Mentor Team, 1st Battalion, 32nd Infantry Regiment, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, during a lengthy battle with the Taliban in Kunar Province, Afghanistan on September 8, 2009.

READ MORE

President Obama Visits Martha’s Table to Thank Furloughed Workers

On Monday, the President traveled to Martha’s Table, a local food pantry, to thank the many furloughed federal employees who spent time during the government shutdown volunteering for charities and non-profits.

READ MORE

President Obama Meets with Small Business Owners to Discuss the Impacts of the Government Shutdown

The President met with nine small business owners from across the country about the impacts of the federal government shutdown on their businesses, and updated them on where things stand on efforts in Congress to avoid a first-ever default in the nation’s credit.

READ MORE

 
 
  Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Time (ET)

9:45 AM: The President and the Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:35 AM: The President delivers a statement

11:30 AM: The President holds a bilateral meeting with Italian Prime Minister Letta; the Vice President also attends

12:45 PM: The President holds a working lunch with Italian Prime Minister Letta; the Vice President also attends

1:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney 

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Why Visitor Analytics Aren't Enough for Modern Marketers

Why Visitor Analytics Aren't Enough for Modern Marketers


Why Visitor Analytics Aren't Enough for Modern Marketers

Posted: 16 Oct 2013 03:09 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

For the first two decades of the web, the vast majority of those performing web marketing tasks used visitor analytics tools (from log files and hit counters all the way up to today's full-featured visitor analytics tools) to do their jobs. We'd look at how many visits came in, where they were coming from, and what pages they saw, and that was enough.

But, web marketing has evolved. It's become far more complex and competitive. And in 2013, visitor analytics alone doesn't cut it.

The key challenges marketers face usually fall into one of three buckets:

  1. Measuring & reporting (and the analysis of those reports)
  2. Uncovering problem issues
  3. Identifying areas of opportunity
If we visualize these challenges, we can see the missing holes compared to the features of visitor analytics software:

(note: this graphic isn't meant to be an exhaustive list of metrics or of tools, and there's plenty of overlap, e.g. Moz Analytics and Raven both track visit data, Mixpanel and Kiss Metrics both measure revenue and usage, etc)

It's been my experience that most of the great web marketing teams have access to several tools that fill in the gaps on both sides of what visitor analytics provide. These marketers analyze how they're doing in the leading indicator metrics against the competition, and follow that methodology (as far as possible) down to marketing KPIs, and finally business metrics.

Why does this matter so much?

Because a competitive web marketing world means we have less room for failure over a long period of time. If a tactic or channel isn't succeeding, we have to know whether that's because it's a bad channel, or whether we're just bad at it. Competitive comparisons are critical to getting that analysis right.

If your key competitors are kicking butt on Pinterest, but your CMO doesn't "believe" in the channel, you need data to make the case. Likewise, if you're attracting lots of converting visitors through Pinterest, but the lifetime value of those customers is 1/10th that of your email list based on your recitivism and amplification data, you need to know that, too. Google Analytics is great, but it can't give you the answer to either of those questions, no matter how you customize it.

Obviously, I'm biased. Moz makes marketing software that's focused on comparing your leading indicator metrics against your competition's (go read Matt's Field Guide to Moz Analytics if you're curious about the details). We have a vested interest in marketers feeling the need for this type of data. But the truth is that we built software to help solve that problem because I/we believe it's such an important part of the story.

We're also not the only ones in the field.

Raven Tools provides a lot of this data, too, as do SearchMetrics, WooRank, and others. For individual pieces of this picture, tools like SEMRush, Majestic SEO, Sprout Social, and many more can help. Companies that make analytics software focused on those bottom-of-funnel, lead tracking, and lifetime value/retention-focused metrics are equally essential - KissMetrics, Mixpanel, Intercom.io, Hubspot, etc. There's a reason so many players are in this field - marketers clearly need the data.

Visitor analytics like Google Analytics, Omniture, and Webtrends aren't going anywhere. They're still a huge part of what we need to do in our jobs. But alone, they're not enough.

We need to see how the competitive landscape is trending, and how our efforts compare. We need to see how channels perform beyond simple conversion and sales tracking. There's no single piece of software that does all of this in one place, and I strongly doubt there will be. Instead, I believe the future will have marketers on the organic side doing what our brethren in paid channels do - visiting several sources, aggregating information, and making smart decisions based on the nuance their collective brain power can help deduce.


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A Guide to Spanish Content Marketing

Posted: 16 Oct 2013 03:41 AM PDT

Posted by ZephSnapp

Si prefieres leer este post en Espaňol, se encuentra en el blog de Altura Interactive.

Just like the rest of the SEO/inbound/internet marketing world, we have spent the last year learning how to shift from link building to link earning, and despite the fact that this stuff is really, really hard, we’ve found some success by building out processes. One challenge (advantage?) that we have is that we work exclusively on Spanish-language projects. This means that while many of the strategies are the same, some of the tactics vary. This post is primarily meant for marketers interested in targeting the Spanish-speaking world, but should also be helpful to full-stack marketers no matter the language.

Are you ready for Spanish content marketing?

There are a ton of great reasons to get started on Spanish-language content marketing. The Hispanic community in the US grew 67% from 2000 to 2011 according to Pew Hispanic, and cleared 50 million people for the first time (although reaching them does not necessarily mean you need to start marketing in Spanish). Also, while growth has slowed in Latin American countries over the past couple of years, their economies are stable enough that they aren’t as affected by downturns in the US economy as they once were. Just because Hispanic marketing is hot, though, is not a good reason for your business to invest time, money, and sweat equity in marketing to Spanish speakers. You need to validate the concept and ensure it's the right move for you.

First, translate your main keywords. In some cases this can be fairly straightforward, but there are some products that shouldn't be translated, since the term exists on its own. A great example is “e-commerce:" While there are ways to translate this term, most of the time we leave it in English. But please, a word of advice: Don’t use a machine translation. Get a human being to translate your terms for you, then have someone else check their translations. It is of paramount importance that your terms preserve the same query intent, otherwise, any work on keyword research will be wasted.

Next, make sure that your website is in order, and that you have decided on an international strategy. If you need more help on that front, check out Aleyda’s Whiteboard Friday about International SEO Do’s and Dont’s and her International SEO Checklist. They are both excellent resources if you are thinking about taking your business abroad.

The research phase

We believe in doing persona-based marketing at all times. There is no reason to belabor the point of how to build personas, since this topic has been written about extensively. Suffice it to say, we follow the process explained by Mike King almost to a T. The main difference in our technique is that in addition to this process, we have to think about the country/region towards which we will be targeting the content. This informs the type of data we should use for a given piece of content. For example, if you are going after US-based Hispanics, you may not even need to create the content in Spanish!

Armed with these personas, we find actual people who are active on social media and see what type of content they are sharing. Followerwonk is a great way to do this. These are not necessarily prospects, but It’s absolutely necessary to drill down as much as possible, otherwise your outreach will not be nearly as effective.

Arm yourself with information

If you are going to create interesting content for Latin American audiences, you are going to need data. Lots of it. Luckily for you, we’ve gathered a ton of data resources from all over Latin America. Some of them are country specific, but others look at the region as a whole. The information is in Spanish, but as we say in Mexico, "gajes del oficio" (comes with the territory). At least we’ve translated the description of the databases so you’ll be able to find what you are looking for. It is also a living document. As we find more data sets, they will be added (and if you have any suggestions, please put them in the comments, either here or on that post).

Since you already have your personas built, you can easily decide the data that makes the most sense for your project, and then move on to another important step:

Building the content

If you are a data driven marketer (the best kind in my opinion), when you are diving into the data, your aim has to be to understand the story that the data is telling you, and how you can use it to promote your client. Once you have the story in place, we start thinking about how to best present the data. In some many cases, a great blog post will do the trick. In those cases, we have one person start writing titles. We write a minimum of five, because we want to stimulate creative thoughtâ€"it is rare that the first idea is the best.

Our lead editor reviews the proposals with the author, and together they decide which best fits the subject, as well as the websites/people the post will be targeting. Then the post is written, reviewed by the editor, and then another content creator to ensure that the piece is focused, creative, and grammatically sound.

In many cases, users will respond more favorably to a visualization than to text. This is especially true if you are explaining a process or giving instructions. We’ve found that video can be an awesome way get through to these people. If you don’t have the budget or the ability to shoot a video yourself (although you shouldâ€"as Phil Nottingham explained at MozCon, good video can be created pretty cheaply), PowToon allows you to create an animated explanation video, even if you don’t have incredible design chops.

If you must create an infographic, at least try to be original in how you present it. We’ve used Piktochart and Visual.ly just like everyone else, but there are a ton of other ways to present data. We’ve created a list of data visualization resources that includes some very unusual ways of presenting data. In many cases, the main investment is in learning how to use the platform.

Shameless Plug: In my Mozinar next Tuesday I’ll be sharing the easiest way to build resources with outreach prospects built in. It’s seriously awesome. You should sign up now. ¡Por favor!

Prospecting for outreach

Generally speaking, we are looking for:

People

Usually the best way to find experts in a given vertical is to look at Twitter, and the best way to qualify them is via Followerwonk. Enough blog posts have been written about this already, so there is no need for us to get into that here.

Websites

If you are really strapped for cash, all you need is a list of keywords for your vertical and Google’s advanced operators. We use these on occasion, but most of the time, it is faster and more efficient to lean on tools built by others.

Link Prospector supports multilingual queries, and if you want to get a great list of prospects quickly, this is a great way to find them. (Full disclosure: We helped build the multilingual tool, and while we didn’t profit from it, we do get to use it for free. Still, if you told me I could only use Moz and one other tool, this would be it).

Buzzstream is an awesome tool which also supports multilingual queries, and doubles as a way to remember what prospects are in what stage of a relationship. We have found that the contact information that the tool pulls is not particularly accurate for websites in Spanish, so if you are using this tool don’t depend on themâ€"go get the information for yourself. Another platform that we’ve been using that has proven helpful is GroupHigh. Their platform is pricey, but the prospects that you can get from here are excellent, especially if you are doing a bilingual English/Spanish outreach campaign. The metrics they provide are based on Moz’s stats as well as social shares, but they don’t always coincide with what we find when we check sites by hand.

To be sure, we prequalify every single website we are going to do outreach to. And we craft every single pitch individually to ensure that they are more likely to looked upon favorably by our prospective partners.

Once we have our prospects, we separate them into tiers. The top tier is of the most important people and websites in a sphere. We know that getting in touch with and convincing these targets to share our content will be extraordinarily hard, simply because they are pitched to so often. The advantage we have is that most of the pitches they receive totally suck. Knowing how to approach each influencer can make or break your outreach efforts, which leads to our next point:

Outreach to influencers

The goal of any outreach campaign is to get the person/website you’ve targeted to share your content piece, right? In most cases, no matter the quality of your pitch, it will be ignored. This is because some websites are abandoned, the webmaster might be too busy with other work (like a day job), or they simply might not care enough to respond. These are the facts.

And then there is the question of culture and language. We’ve used templates developed by some of the best link builders in the US and seen zero or even negative response. So, it is crucial to localize not just the content, but also the approach. By following our process, you can increase your engagement rate when doing outreach, especially when it is for a piece of content you have created. Here are a few tips that we’ve found to be effective when doing outreach to Spanish-speaking webmasters, bloggers, and journalists:

1) Write it in Spanish

I know that this might seem obvious, but my friends who are bloggersâ€"including for the oldest blog in Mexicoâ€"receive dozens of pitches from professional PR companies IN ENGLISH. Unforgivable.

2) Make it relevant

Even if the piece of content that you are promoting is only loosely related to the target site, make sure that you make an argument for why it would be interesting to the readership of that site. Yes, this means you can’t just blast emails. Too bad.

3) Keep it short

In Spanish, we have a tendency to be a bit verbose. In fact, we use more words to explain something than people usually do in English. That being said, it is still better to be concise.

4) Have a hook

Whenever you are doing outreach, the goal is to provide value to your client or company. Keep in mind, however, that webmasters don’t care about how great it will be for you if they share your latest infographic about dog food. They care about their readers and community, so make sure that your pitch addresses the benefits for them, not for you.

5) Address the webmaster how (s)he addresses users

In Spanish, you can address readers either formally or informally. By making your outreach consistent with how they address their readers, you can be sure that your pitch fits their style.

6) Be legit, be honest

Despite what I’ve heard about other markets, we’ve found that being TAGFEE is the best way to get results from an outreach campaign. That doesn’t mean that you can’t sugarcoat your outreach ("Links, Please" is probably not the best subject line), but we send emails from our own domain, and own up to working on behalf of a client. We even link back to our profile pages in our outreach emails.

7) Prioritize outreach method

The best method for outreach depends on who you are reaching out to. This is our priority list when reaching out to bloggers, for example:

  1. Contact form
  2. Facebook
  3. Email
  4. Twitter
In our experience, the first two methods are easily the most effective. This is another place where being open and honest works to our advantage. Since we are using our own Facebook profiles to conduct outreach, prospects can look at our pictures, read our updates, and see that we are human beings, just like them. They are far less likely to say no to someone who likes the same band as them, right?

Of course, if you are reaching out to a journalist (or even a web-based magazine) it is probably going to be best to reach out via phone. Having a prioritized list of methods makes things easier for the outreach specialist to work.

There is obviously a lot more that goes into outstanding Spanish content marketing, but this guide is here to give you the basics. If you want to dig deeper into our Spanish digital marketing processes, please sign up for my Mozinar. ¡Muchas Gracias!

If you would prefer to read this post in Spanish, check it out on the Altura Interactive blog.

Si quieres leer sobre estrategia de contenido en espaňol, este post también se encuentra en el blog de Altura Interactive.


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