luni, 3 octombrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Dexia, Belgium's Largest Lender About to Become First Casualty of Greek Default; Emergency Meeting to Split Bank Now in Progress
Greek Haircut Under Review, No Aid Until November, October 13 Finance Meeting Canceled
Bank of America Website Malfunctioning "Again" Amid Volume Surge Following Debit Card Fee Hikes; New 52-Week Low of $5.60; Time to Switch Banks
Manufacturing ISM Nothing to Crow About
Schaeuble Claims German EFSF Contribution Has Maxed Out at 211 Billion Euros; Why Should Anyone Believe Him?
Bond Bears Plow Into Treasuries; Six Reasons to Fade PIMCO Revisited; Bill Gross Exorcised

Dexia, Belgium's Largest Lender About to Become First Casualty of Greek Default; Emergency Meeting to Split Bank Now in Progress

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 07:13 PM PDT

In recent (and totally useless) "stress-free" tests, Dexia passed with flying colors. Dexia passed those tests only because the tests did not include any writedowns of Greek debt. Tonight, an emergency board meeting is underway because Dexia is massively undercapitalized as a result of its Greek bond position.

Please consider Dexia Board Said to Meet as Sovereign Debt Crisis Curbs Funding

The board of Dexia SA, Belgium's biggest lender, is meeting to discuss options including a possible breakup after Europe's debt crisis reduced its funding, a person with knowledge of the talks said.

Dexia, which finances municipalities in France and Belgium, may split off its French business partly under the oversight of state-owned Banque Postale SA, said the person, who declined to be identified because the matter is confidential. The discussions are complex because Dexia is based in Brussels and Paris, and has both governments as shareholders. An announcement may come as soon as tonight, the person said.

"Dexia is an extremely complicated file," said Benoit Petrarque, an Amsterdam-based analyst at Kepler Capital Markets with a "hold" rating on the shares. "The fact that two countries are involved, both under pressure from rating agencies, makes it even more difficult. We are not in 2008 anymore, when you could just inject multibillions of cash."
In September 2008, France and Belgium led the first rescue of Dexia, buying a combined 3 billion euros of stock. The bank's existing shareholders, which include Caisse des Depots et Consignations and Belgium's Holding Communal SA, provided an additional 3 billion euros.

Less than a month later, Dexia also obtained as much as 150 billion euros of debt guarantees from France, Belgium and Luxembourg, of which it tapped a maximum of about 96 billion euros in May 2009. The bank stopped issuing government-backed debt in June 2010. It still had 29 billion euros outstanding at the end of last month.

Belgian Finance Minister Promises Another Bailout

Euronews provides additional details in Dexia dragged down by Greek debt worries

The French and Belgian government will do the right thing to support bank Dexia in the current turbulent markets. So said the Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders.

It is now looking more likely that Dexia's state shareholders will have to consider a second bailout of taxpayers' money.

Dexia is not the only European bank facing a need for capital as regulations become tougher, profits sag and lenders face losses on sovereign bonds if the euro zone crisis isn't resolved.

Banks face a 148 billion euro capital shortfall under a base case and a 227 billion shortfall under a stressed scenario, according to analysts at JPMorgan, who say Unicredit , Deutsche Bank, Lloyds, Societe Generale and Barclays each face a deficit of over seven billion euros under its stressed scenario.

Dexia, which received a six billion euro bailout from Belgium, France and other major shareholders at the height of the financial crisis in 2008, held 3.8 billion euros of Greek sovereign bonds at the end of June and had a credit risk exposure to the country of 4.8 billion euros.

Dexia's market capitalisation is only 2.5 billion euros, and its core capital is seen as insufficient to absorb big hits.

The company has taken a 338 million euro hit to cover a 21 percent loss on Greek sovereign debt maturing by 2020, part of a plan agreed by private sector investors in July.

But with market prices indicating investors could suffer a loss of 50 percent or more, Dexia's Greek bill could be more than one billion euros more.

Bondholders Do God's Work

Logically speaking, Dexia bondholders should have been wiped out in 2008. They should be wiped out again now. Instead, look for Belgium and France to throw more taxpayer money at bondholders.

The best explanation I can come up with is as follows: bondholder of banks do "God's work" just as Goldman Sachs does.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greek Haircut Under Review, No Aid Until November, October 13 Finance Meeting Canceled

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 05:27 PM PDT

The sure thing bet that Greece would get the next tranche of bailout funds in October just vanished into thin air, as did the silly notion that haircuts would be limited to 21%.

Please consider Greek haircut under review, no new euro zone aid until November

Euro zone finance ministers are reviewing the size of the private sector's involvement in a second international bailout package for Greece, a move that could undermine the aid program and hasten the threat of a Greek default.

Ministers also agreed after a meeting in Luxembourg that Greece could wait until mid-November until it receives the next installment from its existing emergency aid program, piling more pressure on Athens to tackle its debt problems.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of the Eurogroup ministers, said they were reassessing the extent of the private sector's role in the planned second package for Greece, a centerpiece of the deal struck on July 21 to rescue Athens.

Despite more than six hours of talks, the meeting produced few concrete steps and is likely to provoke more uncertainty among investors, with expectations rising that Greece will end up having to default on its 357 billion euros of debts.

The next finance ministers' meeting on Oct 13, when they were expected to sign off on the next, 8 billion euro payment to Greece, has been canceled, and EU and IMF inspectors will have several weeks in which to report back on Athens' budget cuts.

The likelihood that Greece's funding needs next year will be greater than forecast when a second 109 billion euro rescue package was agreed in principle in July reopened a fraught battle over who should pay -- taxpayers or financiers.

STEEPER HAIRCUT?

Deutsche Bank chairman Josef Ackermann, head of the International Institute of Finance (IIF), which negotiated a "voluntary" bond-swap by investors as part of the bailout plan, warned at the weekend against changing the terms now.

"If we reopen the voluntary accord of July 21, we will not only lose precious time but quite possibly also private investor support," Ackermann told the Sunday edition of Greek newspaper Kathimerini.

"The impact of such a move will be incalculable. This is why I am warning in the most forceful way against any material revision," he said.

Private bondholders agreed to a 21 percent write-down on their Greek debt holdings but EU and German officials have suggested the "haircut" may have to be increased -- possibly to as much as 40 or 50 percent -- in light of a new funding shortfall and changed market conditions.

Self-Serving Ackermann Whine

Look at the self-serving whine of Deutsche Bank chairman Josef Ackermann. He warns against losing support of "private bondholders". Who is he trying to fool? The banks are the bondholders. Few others were stupid enough to buy Greek debt.

An 85% haircut would be a nice lesson to banks: "Don't do stupid things, and don't think the ECB and Fed will bail you out if you do".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Bank of America Website Malfunctioning "Again" Amid Volume Surge Following Debit Card Fee Hikes; New 52-Week Low of $5.60; Time to Switch Banks

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 10:53 AM PDT

Bank of America has taken "proactive" measures to manage traffic following a bad decision to hike fees on debit cards.

The bank has been swamped with traffic and instead of increasing servers, has taken measures in the bank's words "could result in some customers experiencing slowness or temporarily having access issues."

Lovely.

Please consider BofA website malfunctioning again

Bank of America's website, plagued by problems Friday and Saturday but supposedly fixed on Sunday, wasn't working again Monday.

Many users trying to access bankofamerica.com get a message saying the home page is temporarily unavailable. But spokeswoman Tara Burke said customers who experience slowness or can't get into their accounts should keep trying.

Burke said the access problems are a result of the bank managing traffic volume during peak use.

"We've simply taken some proactive measures to manage customer traffic during peak hours during the day," she said. "That could result in some customers experiencing slowness or temporarily having access issues."

She declined to say whether volume has surged in recent days.

The problems began Friday, a day after the bank said it would start charging a $5 monthly fee for customers using debit cards. Burke insisted there's no connection. The delays and the home page message persisted Saturday, but Burke said Sunday that things were fine.

Bank of America (BAC) Plunges Below $6

click on chart for sharper image

Shared of Bank of America have solidly taken out the "Buffett is Buying" low reached in August. The spike to $8.79 was a good time to unload if you were still holding this turkey in any size.

Warren Buffett did not buy Bank of America shares, he got a sweet deal to buy debt that came with a free option to buy shares. The move was an obvious ploy by Bank of America to put a floor on the share price. It did not work.

Time to Switch Banks

My recommendation is that if you are at any bank that raises debit card fees, switch banks. That Bank of America's servers are flooded is a welcome sign that customers have had enough.

Adding insult to injury, the "proactive" way Bank of America handled this maneuver suggests blatant incompetence.

Addendum:

"PT" who lives in Seattle writes ...

Is this blatant incompetence and/or an effort to slow customer transfers? It's time for BofA customers, such as myself, to take some of our own proactive measures and move our accounts to a bank which is capable of handling "peak traffic".

I bank with BofA in Washington, which has a totally separate portal for accessing accounts. It has been offline since 7:00 am Seattle time, when I first tried to access my account, and that is hardly what I would call a "peak traffic" hour. An electronic run on the bank prompted by customers fed up with their incompetence and, most recently, their plan to impose a fee on debit card usage.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Manufacturing ISM Nothing to Crow About

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 10:33 AM PDT

The Institute for Supply Management released the September 2011 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

The PMI registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from August, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 26th consecutive month, at a slightly higher rate. The Production Index registered 51.2 percent, indicating a return to growth after contracting in August for the first time since May of 2009.

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE SEPTEMBER 2011
Index	Series Index Sep	Series Index Aug	Percentage Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend* (Months)
PMI	51.6	50.6	+1.0	Growing	Faster	26
New Orders	49.6	49.6	0.0	Contracting	Same	3
Production	51.2	48.6	+2.6	Growing	From Contacting	1
Employment	53.8	51.8	+2.0	Growing	Faster	24
Supplier Deliveries	51.4	50.6	+0.8	Slowing	Faster	28
Inventories	52.0	52.3	-0.3	Growing	Slower	2
Customers' Inventories	49.0	46.5	+2.5	Too Low	Slower	30
Prices	56.0	55.5	+0.5	Increasing	Faster	27
Backlog of Orders	41.5	46.0	-4.5	Contracting	Faster	4
Exports	53.5	50.5	+3.0	Growing	Faster	27
Imports	54.5	55.5	-1.0	Growing	Slower	25

OVERALL ECONOMY				Growing	Faster	28
Manufacturing Sector				Growing	Faster	26

A Bloomberg writer managed to managed to spin those ISM numbers into the headline U.S. Stocks Fall as Concern Over Greek Debt Crisis Offsets Economic Data stating "Earlier today, stocks rose as a report showed that manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly accelerated in September as production picked up, easing concern the world's largest economy is stalling."

That is complete silliness. Exactly whose concern is eased?

A new concern ought to be the expansion in hiring and production while orders and especially backlog of orders is contracting.

Manufacturers are producing at an unsustainable rate. The global economy is rapidly cooling led by Europe, Asia, and Australia. That is a lot of downside leadership. The US is not immune and indeed is likely in recession already as noted in ECRI Calls Recession Based on "Contagion in Forward Indicators"; Just How Timely is the Call?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Schaeuble Claims German EFSF Contribution Has Maxed Out at 211 Billion Euros; Why Should Anyone Believe Him?

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 09:38 AM PDT

On Saturday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out larger German EFSF contribution

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was quoted on Saturday ruling out a higher German contribution to the euro zone's rescue fund beyond the 211 billion euros approved by parliament last week.

In an interview with the Super-Illu newspaper published on Saturday, Schaeuble said Germany would not contribute more than that amount to the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

"Germany will take on 211 billion euros in guarantees and that's it, that's really the end of it with the exception of the interest costs on top of it," said Schaeuble, who has faced criticism recently for revising upwards earlier pledges on ceilings for the guarantees.

"Really the End of It?"

Please consider Schäuble stratagem courtesy of Google Translate.

The euro rescue package is too small, a direct expansion is ruled out. Therefore the policy is looking for a tool to increase the sum in another way. Leaders of the G-20 have confirmed this long ago - only Finance Minister Schäuble denied on all channels. His motto: talk so ably beside the point that even half-truths do not apply later than grossest falsehood.

Leaders of the G 20 , including France's Finance Minister François Baroin, his colleague Timothy Geithner, U.S. and EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, have already confirmed that the debate over such "leverage". Schäuble, however, denied on all channels, while in reality he is doing just this: The liability framework for the German tax payer, he says several times on Thursday, will not increase - knowing full well that no one has claimed otherwise. On the contrary: The highlight of the "leverage" solution is precisely that this framework would remain formally unchanged.

On Thursday morning there Schäuble in an interview with Germany radio. "I have not used the word" replies Schäuble - what's true and yet not true, because although he has not used the word, but the discussion nonetheless indirectly confirmed: On the question of whether it costs to fund an expansion of the ECB think possible, he said in Washington saying: "There are other forms of leverage."

The fact of the matter is leverage puts more than 211 billion euros of German taxpayer funds at risk and he knows it. He denies using the word "leverage" but he never said it would not happen.

History of Schaeuble Lies

Please consider these Schäuble Flip-Flops courtesy of Google Translate.

21st December 2009
"We Germans can not pay for Greece's problems."

16th March 2010
"Greece has not asked for help, this is why there is no decision, and there is no decision had been taken."

11th April 2010
Four weeks later, on 11 April, he decided to finance the first Euro-Greece-aid package of € 30 billion.

16th April 2010
"We still believe that the Greeks are on the right track and that they may end up not even have to take the help."

22nd April 2010
"The country has had no problems in financing themselves this week in the markets. The agreement on the assistance in an emergency has been a purely preventive measure."

Greece officially asked for help April 23. In early May a rescue package of 110 billion € was in the works.

27th April 2010
"Rescheduling not an issue"

May 2010
The 110 billion euros in the first aid package "ceiling" is a one-time emergency assistance.

21st March 2011
The EU finance ministers decide on a rescue fund with legendary 750 billion euros (ESM) - with the voice Schäuble.

6th June 2011
Greece will receive a new package with more than 100 billion €. Schäuble said: Otherwise, "we face the real risk of the first disordered state of insolvency within the euro zone."

AND WHAT'S NEXT?
Previously, the Finance Minister is on his no to common bonds of all euro countries, the so-called Euro-bonds remained. But perhaps he thinks it is so different again next week .

There is no reason to believe Schaeuble. If perchance he is telling the truth it is by accident. What "accident" might that be? Simple. Greece defaults before Schaeuble commits more German funds.

Merkel Ally Says Greece Better Off Leaving Euro

The deputy leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), one of three parties in Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right coalition, said on Sunday Greece 'may be better off' leaving

The deputy leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), one of three parties in Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right coalition, said today Greece may be better off leaving the euro zone if it cannot restore its fiscal health.

Alexander Dobrindt told Deutschlandfunk radio that a Greek exit from the euro would be a last resort measure and that Greece would find it easier to recover outside the currency bloc.

Ms Merkel, leader of the Christian Democrats (CDU), and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have spoken out against Greece leaving the euro zone. Merkel has warned that or a Greek default could trigger a domino effect

The Free Democrats (FDP), the third party in the centre-right coalition, also has spoken out against a Greek exit

But Horst Seehofer, the leader of the arch conservative CSU, has said he could not rule out Greece leaving the euro zone . It is an increasingly popular stance among the German public.

Mr Dobrindt went further than Mr Seehofer in the Deutschlandfunk interview on Sunday, saying he believed that many Greeks themselves would perhaps soon realise their country's fiscal health could be more quickly restored outside the euro zone.

"It's quite possible that it's dawning on Greeks that restructuring their economy outside the euro zone for a limited time period would be easier than inside the euro zone," Mr Dobrindt said. "And that's why we've been saying: it must be possible to leave the euro zone."

By supporting Merkel's "Domino Theory" and by refusing to rule out leverage, Schaeuble is clearly willing to go all in. Whether or not that happens depends on how fast Greece defaults.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Bond Bears Plow Into Treasuries; Six Reasons to Fade PIMCO Revisited; Bill Gross Exorcised

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 01:28 AM PDT

Bill Gross at Pimco has had a change of heart. Bloomberg reports Bond Bears Piling Into Treasuries as Yield Forecasts Cut by Most Since '09

Eight months ago Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said Treasuries "may need to be exorcised" and cleaned them out of his $245 billion Total Return Fund. The company then used derivatives to bet against the debt in March.

Now the Pacific Investment Management Co. fund has 16 percent of its assets in U.S. government securities as the debt posted the highest quarterly returns in almost three years.

"We've rebalanced," Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco said in a Sept. 27 radio interview on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene in New York. "The U.S. benefits the most from a flight to quality."

Bill Gross Exorcised

This is what I said on March 10, 2011: Pimco Dumps All Remaining Treasuries in Total Return Fund; Six Reasons to Fade Bill Gross

Pimco's Bill Gross has been dumping US government debt in favor of other alternatives including emerging-market opportunities.

Six Reasons to Fade Pimco

I view this setup as favorable for US Government bonds. For starters there is no Pimco selling pressure, only potential buying pressure when Gross changes his mind.

Second, everyone seems to think the end of QE II will be the death of treasuries. While that could be the case, sentiment is so one-sided that I rather doubt it, especially if the global recovery stalls.

Third, the US dollar is towards the bottom of a broad range and any bounce could easily wipe out gains in higher yielding emerging-market debt.

Fourth, the global macro picture is weakening considerably with overheating in China, state government austerity measures in the US, and a renewed sovereign debt crisis in Europe on top of a supply shock in oil. Emerging markets are unlikely the place to be in such a setup.

Fifth, chasing yield means chasing risk, and that is on top of currency risk. Chasing risk is highly likely to fail again at some point, the only question is when.

Sixth, several interest rate hikes are priced in by the the ECB this year. Will all those hikes come? I rather doubt it, and if the ECB doesn't hike, look for the US dollar to rally, perhaps significantly.

Neutral on Treasuries

Now that Pimco has "rebalanced", I am neutral on treasuries. The bulk of the treasury gains are in.

Yield Curve as of 2011-10-03

click on chart for sharper image

That is one hell of a rally (falling yields) for fixed-income treasury bears to miss out on, especially since the much ballyhooed "hard currencies" of commodity producers went the opposite direction taking into account currency moves.

Since March the Canadian dollar has fallen from 103 to 95 and the Australian dollar from 102 to 97 having hit a high over 110 in July. The Brazilian REAL plunged from a recent high near .65 to a low near .52.

Many hyperinflationists did far worse. They shorted the start of this treasury rally.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Roller Coaster Wedding

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 10:44 AM PDT

One lucky couple said "I Do" atop the Wooden Roller Coaster this morning. The lucky couple was Sarah Petty, 33, and Robert Scherzer, 29, of Magnolia in Seattle, Wash. They met six years ago in New York where both were working at a Broadway production company. Last year, Scherzer proposed to Petty on her birthday in front of family and friends.

The Roller Coaster Wedding is a popular contest that has been held over the years sponsored by STAR 101.5 FM in Seattle. The wedding was broadcasted live this morning during the Kent and Alan Morning Show. Kent Phillips, an ordained minister and co-host of the show, officiated the ceremony as family and friends witnessed this once in a lifetime event.

Starship Comparison Charts

Posted: 03 Oct 2011 10:33 AM PDT

Sci-fi fans and space geeks of all stripes will appreciate the efforts of Dan Carlson comparing fiction to reality in this series of starship comparison charts. Looks like we have quite a bit of work to do before we're up to snuff, but the possibilities, like space itself, are endless. Star Trek Minutiae offers a pretty good number of starship comparison images grouped by size.

Small Starships

Medium Starships

Large Starships

Huge Starships

SEO for the iPad

Posted: 02 Oct 2011 02:06 PM PDT

Posted by PhilNottingham

When the iPad first came out, like many people, I didn't really get it. My initial thoughts were something along the lines of "Steve... what the hell?! You've produced a giant iPod and are somehow trying to claim its some sort of brilliant new product." I resolved never to buy one, considering it simply a folly for overly wealthy businessmen or an iPod designed for the visually impaired.

18 months later, a lot of words have had to be eaten with very little garnish or dressing. Now the proud owner of an iPad 2, I consider the tablet to be the coolest gadget ever made and the piece of technology I use most at home and when out and about.

My belief is that the form-factor of the tablet PC will become the primary device for personal computing over the coming decade and will form conduit for the bulk of consumer search queries.

While this “tablet revolution” may end up meaning very little for the classic SEO model, unaffecting the nature of link-building, keyword targeting, on-page optimisation, content creation or social media; It will form a catalyst of change for the world of CRO, analytics and offer new vertical opportunities so far mostly untapped...

In this post I hope to scratch the surface of things that will need to be considered by the SEO community going forward.

Why the iPad?

Tablets have been common-place now for a over year and a half. Yet, the world as a whole, still seems relatively baffled by them. Where do they fit in relation to the notebook and the smart-phone? Are they a mobile device or a static home-based device? Are they more useful in a personal or a business environment?

The answers to these questions remain somewhat elusive as we see tablet devices used creatively and strategically in numerous different arenas for multiple different purposes, but without a singular, uniting core function.

Some of these uses have been inspiring in their creativity and originality...

Some of these have amused us with their breathtaking ill conceived stupidity.....(fast forward to 0:24)

In beginning to question the exact USP of the iPad, it becomes clear that the mutually exclusive definition of “personal computer” and “mobile device” is broadly defunct, false dichotomy.

By displaying multifunctional appeal, eluding concrete definition, yet morphing its value and form to fit the subjective perspective of the user, the Tablet PC defines itself as a post-modern tool for personal computing - doing nothing particularly new, but a number of things much better, than any other device.

The defining feature of the tablet is clearly its UI. While the touch screen technology used in smart-phones and tablets is essentially the same, the way that translates to end usability differs considerably. The size of tablet allows for multiple fingers to be used simultaneously, allowing for a wider frame of user interaction with content previously viewed primarily on laptops or desktops; made navigable through the integration of a full two-handed QWERTY keyboard.

The touch-screen tablet interface on the iPad is extremely intuitive, feeling responsive, flexible and mutable to the chosen behaviours of its user. Using the device feels effortless compared with the computing via a keyboard and mouse, requiring considerably less mental investment or formal effort.

When we are on a desktop/laptop computer, we are normally entirely using a computer; unable to be simultaneously cooking, brushing our teeth, watching the television or walking to work. The same is not true of a tablet device, where the “pick up and play” nature of the hardware and operating systems allows for genuine multi-tasking and partial engagement with technology.

As such, the tablet perfectly fits the frame for what the PC always felt a bit forced into, casual web usage and content consumption. Most of the time we use the web in a personal frame, it is for an immediate task - be that finding the answer to a question, reading the news, communicating with our friends or making a necessary basic purchase.

Last week Amazon announced the Kindle Fire, a tablet with a similar 7inch 16:9 form-factor to the Blackberry Playbook and the original Samsung Galaxy Tab.

The fire looks to be an incredible product and an un-missible bargain at $199 (£130), but while the eBooks, music, movies and gaming functionality on the Fire may be superb, I do not think it will prove to be a viable or productive device for mobile computing and therefore search.

I played with the original Galaxy Tab for a while when it was released and found it the screen far too small and restrictive, with too low a resolution to be used effectively as a tablet computer. It was not large enough to be more functional than a large smart-phone, yet too cumbersome to be used instead of one. I expect the same to be broadly true of the Playbook and the Fire.

For my money, the 9-10 Inch 4:3 screen will push forwards and the main tablet form factor for years to come, with screen-size slightly expanding to 11-12 inches, - increasing when technology allows for smaller, lighter batteries and even thinner devices. Until the Android UX improves and the App store expands dramatically and a hardware manufacturer is able to produce a device with design quality on par with the iPad for significantly less cost, I can’t see Apple’s sales figures or market share slowing down anytime soon. Even if the iPad doesn’t gain users, it probably won't lose many due to the core Apple ecosystem i.e. those with iPhones, Macs etc will probably not switch to Android. According to technology research firm Gartner 69.7 million tablets were sold his year, of which a vast 68.7% were iPads. While Microsoft may eventually produce an exciting iOS competitor with Windows 8, this release is still a way off and with the luke-warm consumer reception to Windows Phone 7, one does have to wonder whether Ballmer and co will enthusiastically turn up just a bit too late for the party, arriving to discover the revellers have long-ago passed out drunk on Steve Jobs’ sleek, minimalistic, unibody aluminium sofas.

Therefore, I think it’s worth putting time and development resource into optimising for the iPad form factor, treating it as the only current tablet device worthy of consideration for site-optimisation.

The iPad, what is it good for? absolutely nothing

The iPad crosses the boundaries between mobile and desktop, being of particular value in the following locations and situations:

In front of the TV

The iPad is great for finding out the names of actors, undertaking research alongside informational programming or casually engaging with twitter while keeping up to the date with the latest sit-com.

As a TV

This morning, I could not be bothered to move into my living room to watch the Rugby World Cup matches at 8am GMT, so kept up to date with all the action without leaving my bed. This felt awesome, even if it was just laziness on an unprecedented scale.

As a complementary device for meetings & conferences.

In an age of earth shatteringly boring powerpoint presentations, the iPad is a welcome visitor to help liven up even the dullest of boardroom presentation. You can easily pass round presentations, videos and images with the rest of the room.

Travel

Trains and planes are not designed with laptops in mind. The iPad’s shape, size, weight and battery life take away the cumbersome hassle of trying to do work on the move.

Reading

Not only books, but also reports, PDFs, articles and newspapers are a breeze to look through while on the move or multi-tasking.

In and around the home

Particularly for casual browsing and quick enquiries, where the effort of loading up a PC seems unwarranted - the Tablet is the go-to device.

Collaboration

Happiness is best when shared and the iPad works really well for watching Youtube videos with friends, reading articles together or sharing holiday snaps.

Which sites are likely to get the most traffic?

My hypothesis is that sites in certain niches are likely to see more growth from tablet devices than others.

Everyone who has currently bought an iPad will have tethered it to a personal desktop or notebook pc. While this will change going forward, with the introduction of iOS 5, most tablet owners will still have access to a desktop or laptop and probably a smart phone too, meaning they have an option for devices to search from.

Due to usability factors such as screen-size, technical incompatibilities, typing efficiency and to the poor integration of tabbing within the native Safari Browser; the iPad is not suitable for heavy or sustained internet usage, the kind of which you are likely to do at work or when undertaking serious research.

Where the iPad comes into its own is with quick, frivolous tasks and I think this nature is beginning to manifest itself in the sites generating the most tablet traffic. The graph below shows the percentage growth of access from iPads for Distilled clients in a variety of different niches.

TV & Media

A Distilled Client in the TV & Entertainment Niche has had considerable growth of traffic from iPads over recent months, while maintaining a steady level of traffic across the board. Year on year for the month of august, traffic from iPads has grown from 0.47% of total traffic, to 2.52% of total traffic. While this may sound like only a small fraction of overall traffic, this growth represents a 400% increase. Meanwhile traffic from Windows devices reduced considerably over that time frame, by about 9.5% from 82.49 to 72.95%.

The further development of excellent TV & media apps such as TVguide, Sky remote record, Netflix & IMBD should be increasing the amount of traffic driven to entertainment and media sites via the iPad, as people choose not to switch devices in order to find out the name of that actor, or when the next episode of a certain program is on.

Travel & Tourism

If you’re going abroad, a tablet is great way to keep up with your communication and computing on the move, without worrying yourself over luggage allowance or battery life. Ticketing sites, restaurants, hotels and activity planning businesses should start to see sustained growth in visits from tablets.

Leisure E-commerce

If you’re making a major purchase, such as a car, business insurance or an engagement ring you’re going to want to meticulously check through different options, from multiple providers and make copious notes on all the actions as you go. This sort of purchase is unlikely to be undertaken from the armchair with iPad in-hand, however smaller, more frequent purchases often are. The touch screen interface can be a fantastic way to browse through the kind of items that don’t require as much research and planning. For example, when searching for a gift for a friend, people will often browse a store on a sofa while perhaps taking into account other's opinions.

News & Information Resources

We have all been in the situation where in the midst of a heated argument one side reaches for the last resort: Wikipedia. Alongside the smart phone a tablet is the ideal device for quick information retrieval on a particular topic of reference. Tablets also provide a great way to consume journalistic content as demonstrated in this recent article from Net Magazine. If you run a content aggregation site, a popular blog or a news resource – prepare for a shift in the devices comprising your overall traffic.

Social

For some reason everybody, when amongst friends and family, usually groans when somebody reaches for their mobile phone or laptop to access a social network. This stigma has so far managed to find itself inapplicable to tablets, their users and their peers. The pedantry associated with social network browsing on a phone isn’t applicable and the giant expedition that requires setting up a laptop with charger doesn’t make it seem like too much of an aside from maintaining the current real-life social setup. A tablet is a complement to a group trying to include, perhaps talk about or explore others who aren’t in their immediate vicinity.

Technical Optimisation

Flash

The iPad doesn’t support flash and from the vehemently stubborn quality of the comments made by Apple on this matter, I think it’s pretty safe to assume the iPad won’t be supporting flash anytime in the future either.

The SEO world have been pretty negative on flash for some-time, given Google’s inability to crawl it, but if you need another reason to take it down or convert your content to HTML5, here it is. Creating flash-style HTML5 content sounds extremely daunting to those of us without a front-end development background, but it really needn’t be. Check out Tom Anthony’s post on how to fix common issues with HTML5 and these sites for good tutorials:

HMTL5 Rocks

W3 Schools

Hype, a program for Mac OS X program allows even layman’s to create smart looking interactive HTML5 content and costs only $29.99 on the Mac App store.

Site Speed

Most of the time, tablets will run off reasonably speedy Wi-fi connections in homes, offices and coffee shops. But on trains, buses, cars, in airports and in meetings at other offices, iPads with the capability will often rely on their 3G connectivity to provide internet services.

The BBC recently conducted a comprehensive survey of 3G availability around the UK, which showed patchy connections in many areas outside of the major cities.

Despite an often advertised speed of 7.2Mbps for 3g connections, the BBC found most UK users get speeds of about 1.5Mbps, if stationary. In moving vehicles, connections can slow to a sloth like 284kbit/s – not enough to consistently stream video from YouTube. For iPad users opting to tether their device to their phone’s 3G connection for mobile browsing, the same sort of connection speeds apply.

This data simply reinforces the value of a fast loading, well constructed site, most easily achieved through:

Ensuring your images aren’t bigger than they need to be
Combining External Javascript
Minimizing DNS lookups

For tutorials on how to achieve these and more hot site-speed tips, check out Craig Bradford’s guide

Make an iPad friendly site, but not a duplicate

Mobile websites create unnecessary duplicate content, which can have bad consequences for your crawl bandwidth and keyword targeting, yet most desktop sites are not ideal for use on either smart phones or tablets.

The best solution is to serve different versions of the same site, perfectly optimised for each device, through changing CSS. Check out CSS zen garden to see how the same content can be delivered in totally different visual styles.

If you have built a mobile version of your website which you automatically serve to mobile devices, ensure this does not happen for users on an iPad. Although I can’t find any research to back this up (I’d be interested to hear if anybody else can), I expect that the vast majority of web browsing on tablets is done in landscape mode, where most full-sized sites can be navigated without any difficulty. The only reason I can see for supplying a mobile site to an iPad is if the full-sized site contains heavy elements of flash, which you are reluctant to lose.

Conversion Rate Optimisation

Simplify the check-out/conversion process

Using the keyboard on a tablet is a little bit arduous. In small doses, it’s not a problem, but typing stuff in does often require the user to put down the device and engage two-hands on the keypad. If you’re looking for a simple conversion to purchase, try to minimise the amount of content a user has to manually input.

This can be achieved by:

Only forcing the user to input the minimum amount of data you require
Using cookies to store data from previous visits
Automatically matching addresses from postcode/zipcode inputs
Allowing payment through paypal

Create an App

My iPad has a folder on it labelled “Shopping”. If I have something i wish to buy, then my first port of call will be the two clicks required to open up one of the apps in this folder, rather than the lengthy process of searching Google then trawling the results. Ebay, Asos, Amazon and Ocado have all done really good iPad apps which are worth taking a look at for anyone with an E-commerce focus.

Apps allow you to permanently store your payment details and ensure you can produce a graphically rich online store without the concern of page loading times. While an app will likely provide conversions in its own right, they are also valuable tools for generating brand-trust and can act as fantastic bits of linkbait for improving overall domain authority.

Pagination

Scrolling through lengthy pages is a breeze on a tablet, requiring only a casual flick of the finger to move the page down. Clicking through to another page, however, can be time consuming – especially if the clickable icons are difficult to locate and the page contains heavy graphical content.

That’s not to say that you shouldn’t paginate content when serving tablet devices, providing your “next” and “previous” icons are suitably tablet friendly, but simply that the visual impact of long pages is not such an issue.

Tabbing

While there are decent third party browsers available for the iPad; particularly Opera Mobile, Diigo Browser and Dolphin HD, the vast majority of users (around 96%) use only the native Safari browser, which currently offers an inelegant solution to tabbing.

If you’ve set all your external links to open up in a new tab or window in order to keep users on your site, beware that this may have an adverse effect for iPad users. Clicking back on the iPad is not nearly as dull or time consuming as going back to a page in another window.

Scrollers & multitouch

Smart use of HTML5 and CSS3 allows you to integrate scrollers and multitouch into your site delivery, as seen in Google tablet search and the upcoming BBC site redesign, currently in beta testing.

The best of use tablet UI and architecture is where traditional vertical scrolling is combined with horizontal navigation, to allow a great deal of content to be delivered on a single page. This lessens the need for tabbing and 3+ click journeys to deep pages; which feel irksome on the iPad, while allowing users to locate content without spending a long time finger-flicking through giant pages.

Check out the way my previous company, LocateTV, integrated horizontal navigation, and the way the extremely pretty Sky News App displays big pages of rich content.

Button Size

Fingers are bigger than cursors and therefore require more space to be clicked. Having to zoom-in in order to make a selection gets extremely tiring, so nip this issue in the bud by making small adjustments to your CSS.

Downloads for Quality Content

One of the most useful and natural functions for the iPad is as a portable eReader. The iBooks application contains an extensive bookstore, offering a wide variety of both paid and free content. The iBooks App also works as the primary PDF reader on the iPad, allowing you to bookmark places, zoom in and out and store the content in an extremely visually appealing library.

One way we can utilise this functionality as website optimisers is to ensure quality content is PDF downloadable, giving users to option to store our content on their tablet device for viewing in environments absence of an internet connection. With many iPads only offering Wi-fi connectivity and frequent usage in internet free areas such as the London Underground, having offline readable content can improve long-term user engagement.

Two ways to make effective use of this would be to ensure that any HQ content you produce has a PDF download option as per the SEOmoz Beginner's Guide or hitting mail subscribers with PDF versions of your new content so they can quickly upload it to iBooks in the morning before beginning the train journey into work.

When building the acrobat files, carefully consider the formatting of your document. The standard PDF looks like this:

An iPad in portrait mode has a width of 728px , considerably less than the average 15 inch laptop monitor screen, which clocks in at about 1440px. It’s best to test out your PDF document on an iPad so you avoid the need to excessively zoom in and out in order to make the text legible.

With the introduction of Apple’s reading list into the latest version of Safari on OS X Lion, expect iOS 5 on the iPad to provide an integrated system, which may open up more possibilities in off-line downloadable content.

Analytics

Google Analytics make it very simple for you to work out how much traffic your site is getting from iPads, by treating the device as an operating system entirely separate from iOS on the iPhone or iPod touch.

Just go to Visitors > Browser Capabilities > Operating Systems to see a basic report.

However, I think setting up an “Tablet” Advanced Segment is the best way to go with this, so you can include the appropriate Android versions and other tablet devices in overall analysis.

You may notice unusual referrers coming in through GA, ones which don’t drive any traffic from other devices. These will most likely be Apps and if you’re getting significant traffic off the back of these, it’s well worth delving a bit deeper to see if you can leverage further opportunities in this area.

The vast majority of traffic on the iPad will come through Safari, with small amounts through Opera mobile and other niche browsers. However, there are also a few other quasi-browsers that may pop up their heads. The Twitter app for the iPad contains an integrated webkit based browser, which should show up in GA as “Mozilla Compatible Agent”.

Don’t be immediately alarmed if you see higher than normal bounce rates coming through from tablet traffic, it may be that many of these visits are coming in via social references and through apps such as twitter, Facebook, iReddit and Flipboard. The things to be wary of are low times on site, low conversions and any pages which may contain iPad hostile flash or aspx server-side scripts.

The Future of Tablets

TV Companion Devices

One of the major futures for tablets will be as the “Second Screen” for home-based broadcast media. When watching sport, meta-data will be pushed live to the viewers phone and tablet, allowing them to browse through statistics, replays, commentary and static shots. Users are already beginning to make moves in this direction, with the plethora of Sky Apps released for the iPad. The current function of “The Red Button”, will be replaced by content wirelessly pushed to an App on a tablet.

For marketers, there will be opportunities within these integrated broadcasts systems; be it ads, creative content or affiliate recommendations. For example, imagine seeing the outfit a character is wearing in a TV show, then being provided with an image and a link to an E-commerce seller for that outfit on your tablet device.

The tablet will fulfill the main role as the TV companion device, as it’s informal, flexible nature makes it much easier and less cumbersome to use than a laptop while curled up on the sofa with most of your attention focused on your big screen.

Content Creation

The thing currently limiting tablets from becoming realistic content creation devices is not the hardware, but the creative software.

I can foresee voice-activated document creation coming back into the fray with tablets. While this technology has been around for a while, the speed and accuracy of dictation software has held back any wide ranging adoption. Tablets may become mainstream devices for illustration and design, video and music creation once innovations in UI take the next step and cloud syncing systems have been properly established to allow heavy processing tasks to be shared with more powerful computers. However, I do think it’s unlikely that heavy multitasking or database creation will find a mainstream form within the tablet functionality.

4G

Within the next few years, along with phones, tablets will take advantage of the 1Gbps 4G networks, improving the ability to watch HD videos on the fly and edit large documents stored in the cloud.

Operational Remotes – Media Libraries

Apps already exist to allow the iPad to be used as a remote mouse for Mac computers or Apple TV and if you have the money and the tenacity to set it up, it is possible to use a tablet device as a control for a large home-media library stored on a static disk. I expect this functionality will improve and expand going forward, with fully integrated media control across devices, service providers and screens.

Cloud Computing

The upcoming iCloud service will allow users to edit documents and content originally created on their larger personal computer, while also allowing access to their full iTunes library anywhere they have an internet connection. Full cloud integration will lessen the need for large hard discs and for users to pair any tablets with a desktop/laptop personal computer. We will start to see more individuals having a tablet as their only personal computing device and people in the same household having personal tablets, while sharing the use of a larger desktop/laptop machine.

I hope you enjoyed this introduction to the possibilities the tablet world is bringing to search marketing. If there are any areas I’ve raised that you would like to delve practically into, let me know in the comments and I’ll see if I can find some good resources.

Many thanks to John Warnes at http://www.transparency.org who helped me with this post and my girlfriend Kim for making me a brilliant cake while I was typing away.

Follow me on twitter @philnottingham

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luni, 3 octombrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

SEO for the iPad

SEO for the iPad

Why the iPad?

The iPad, what is it good for? absolutely nothing

Which sites are likely to get the most traffic?

TV & Media

Travel & Tourism

Leisure E-commerce

News & Information Resources

Social

Technical Optimisation

Flash

Site Speed

Make an iPad friendly site, but not a duplicate

Conversion Rate Optimisation

Simplify the check-out/conversion process

Create an App

Pagination

Tabbing

Scrollers & multitouch

Button Size

Downloads for Quality Content

Analytics

The Future of Tablets

TV Companion Devices

Content Creation

4G

Operational Remotes – Media Libraries

Cloud Computing

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

luni, 3 octombrie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

SEO for the iPad

SEO for the iPad

Why the iPad?

The iPad, what is it good for? absolutely nothing

Which sites are likely to get the most traffic?

TV & Media

Travel & Tourism

Leisure E-commerce

News & Information Resources

Social

Technical Optimisation

Flash

Site Speed

Make an iPad friendly site, but not a duplicate

Conversion Rate Optimisation

Simplify the check-out/conversion process

Create an App

Pagination

Tabbing

Scrollers & multitouch

Button Size

Downloads for Quality Content

Analytics

The Future of Tablets

TV Companion Devices

Content Creation

4G

Operational Remotes – Media Libraries

Cloud Computing

Pagini

Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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