Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- "No Perry Mason Moment": US Intelligence Admits "No Direct Evidence Linking Russia to MH17"
- Split Appeals Court Rulings on Obamacare Subsidies; Pizza Party for Obama? How Much Would Premiums Rise?
- Sorting Through All the Possibilities; Ukraine Accuses Russia of Deliberately Downing MH17; Brawl in Ukraine Parliament; Rush to Judgment
"No Perry Mason Moment": US Intelligence Admits "No Direct Evidence Linking Russia to MH17" Posted: 22 Jul 2014 05:54 PM PDT Earlier today, and several times recently, I received emails accusing me of being a Russian spy and asking me how much I was receiving from RT. I find such accusations highly amusing. Here's the deal: Few bloggers are willing to discuss MH17 for fear of getting it wrong. Whereas I suspect nearly everything, but especially reports coming from Kiev and the US. My reasons are threefold:
No Perry Mason Moment A few hours ago The Guardian reported US Intelligence: Rebels Likely Shot Down Plane 'By Mistake'. The Huffington Post has more details in U.S. Officials: No Evidence Of Direct Russian Link To Malaysia Plane Crash. Senior U.S. intelligence officials said Tuesday that Russia was responsible for "creating the conditions" that led to the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, but they offered no evidence of direct Russian government involvement.Step in Likely Direction That US admission is a step in the likely direction. Unless further information comes in, I am willing to pare my list of possibilities down by one, ruling out an accident by Russia. The list now looks like this.
Could rebels under outside guidance have made a mistake? Yes, but earlier today I stated outside guidance from Russia was part of scenario number 2. Now we see US intelligence makes the same assessment. Repeating a few thoughts expressed previously ... How might Ukraine have done it accidentally?With direct Russian involvement now even more unlikely, the list narrows to Ukraine and the Rebels. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 22 Jul 2014 03:15 PM PDT Earlier today the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit invalidated a major provision of Obamacare, ruling 2-1 that participants in health exchanges run by the federal government in 34 states are not eligible for tax subsidies. No doubt, cheers went out from the anti-Obamacare crowd. However, just a few hours later, the Richmond Appeals Court ruled 3-0 the opposite way, citing pizza in its explanation. Conflicting Rulings The New York Times reports Courts Issue Conflicting Rulings on Health Care Law. Two federal appeals court panels issued conflicting rulings Tuesday on whether the government could subsidize health insurance premiums for people in three dozen states that use the federal insurance exchange. The decisions are the latest in a series of legal challenges to central components of President Obama's health care law.How Much Would Premiums Rise? Marketwatch reports Average Premium Hike is 76% in States Without Federal Subsidies. A Study from Avalere Health shows that the average health-care premium increase for those who actually lose their subsidies would be 76%. The hike in premiums would be highest in Mississippi, where it would be roughly 94%, as well as Missouri, Georgia, Florida and Alaska. Health-Care Premium Rise Pizza Party Yahoo!Finance reports A Federal Judge Used Pizza To Explain Why A Key Provision Of Obamacare Is Legal. Just hours after the Affordable Care Act was dealt a serious blow from a federal appeals court, a different appeals court gave the law a victory — thanks in part to an analogy based on pizza.Question of Intent The issue is one of intent. Right, wrong, or indifferent, it's highly likely the Supreme Court will rule on the intent of Congress, not actual wording of ACA, nor whether the alleged intention makes much or any sense. I suspect Obama will get a reprieve, but it is by no means certain. The outcome may depend on how other courts rule before the Supreme Court accepts the case. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 22 Jul 2014 11:37 AM PDT Only the person or persons who fired the missile know the truth for sure. Yet Ukraine now says "Russian Officer Downed MH17". A brawl then ensued in Ukrainian Parliament following a vote to increase troops battling rebels. Vitaly Nayda, Ukraine's director of informational security, made the accusation in an interview with CNN. The person was "absolutely" a Russian, he said. "A Russian-trained, well-equipped, well-educated officer ... pushed that button deliberately."Interested in the Truth "We don't have the technical ability to destroy this plane. Ukrainians are not interested in the truth," said Borodai. Actually, whoever did it (Russia, Rebels, Ukraine) is not interested in the truth. And even if rebels accidentally did it, Ukraine has no interest whatsoever in explaining why MH17 deviated from its flight path. Yesterday, Pater Tenebrarum outlined Six Who-Done-It Possibilities, summarized in a different order as follows.
Analysis of the Possibilities Pieces of the plane with shrapnel holes tend to rule out other possibilities. Pater suggests, and I concur, numbers 5 and 6 can be discarded. Russia and the rebels had nothing to gain and everything to lose by purposely shooting down a civilian aircraft. However, Ukraine did have much to gain from doing it on purpose. This is what we are left with but expanding points number 1 and 2.
Point number 3 is very remote but arguably possible. Russia would have no reason to be firing missiles accidentally or on purpose over Ukraine territory. Could rebels under outside guidance have made a mistake? Yes, but I distinguish between official actions and that of rogue citizens. The latter I consider part of scenario number 2. How might Ukraine have done it accidentally? Easy: On July 17, the New York Times reported Ukraine Says Russian Plane Shot Down Its Fighter Jet. The Ukrainian government said on Thursday that a Russian military plane had shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet in Ukrainian airspace the previous evening, a serious allegation of direct intervention by Russia's armed forces.Scenario Fulfillment Please note that 1b is not ruled out. Wreckage confirms missile damage of MH17 from that outside, but does not confirm that it was a Buk or even a missile from the ground. And after accusing Russia of violating its airspace, is it that unlikely a Ukrainian soldier or pilot accidentally pulled the trigger? For further discussion of "scenario fulfillment" please see Holier than Thou: Why Should Anyone Believe the US, Ukraine, or Russia? Rush to Judgment Under the "Lie When It's Serious" thesis, there is no reason to believe any side completely. Yet many have done just that. I am not ruling out any possibilities other than #6-Russia did this on purpose, and #5-the rebels did this on purpose. Of the remaining scenarios, the likelihood Russia did this accidentally is remote, once again distinguishing between official actions and that of rogue citizens acting on their own. Of the reasonable possibilities, only 2a removes some guilt from Ukraine. Even then, Ukraine turned down a ceasefire agreement, which if honored, would have prevented accidents. Mainstream media and the US government are without a doubt involved in a rush to judgment, much like the ill-fated rush to judgment before the US invasion of Iraq. Senator John McCain and president Obama are particularly obnoxious. There are lots of questions here, especially in regards to very sloppy video manipulations and accusations by Ukraine. Accident the Most Likely Answer The only non-accident scenarios involve Ukraine. Arguably the most likely scenario is "someone by accident". Please note that the US, Ukraine, and Russia have all shot down civilian aircraft by accident. Thus, all the hype from Obama, McCain, and others over "an accident" is ridiculous. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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