Central Perk: 5 mar. 2011

sâmbătă, 5 martie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Goodbye JS-Kit, Hello Echo: New Comment System on This Blog
Obama's Definition of Halfway: 18%; What Would a Government Shutdown Mean?
Big-Box Retailers Reconsider Size; Saturation, Online Sales Affect Store Expansion Plans and Hiring Needs

Goodbye JS-Kit, Hello Echo: New Comment System on This Blog

Posted: 05 Mar 2011 08:53 PM PST

At long last I am upgrading the comment system on my blog. I had been using JS-Kit for years in what is best described as a love-hate relationship. This change will take place shortly.

The JS-Kit release I have been on is a couple years old. Time and technology have moved on. My choices were as follows:

Write my own software
Wither and Die
Move to Disqus
Migrate to Echo

Number 1 is out. I do not have the time or interest in writing my own. I need a commercial product.

Wither and die hardly seems like a good option.

The choice came down to Disqus vs. Echo.

If you search the internet you can find whatever you want to hear, good or bad, with some users frustrated with one or both of the products.

However, Echo has a couple of significant advantages. First, Echo is a migration. JS-Kit developed Echo. Disqus, would be starting all over.

Second, Echo has attracted quite a following including Sports Illustrated, Newsweek, Slate, the Washington Post, Time, and numerous other big-name companies.

Here is a snapshot of some of the companies using Echo.

Moreover, Echo has an open architecture. Enhancements and solutions can be developed by end users. That may take a while but it is an enormous advantage.

Third, I tested and like the new interface. Echo supports sign-ins from the following.

You can also sign-in with your blogger ID (on page 2).

Those sign-ins will work regardless of what computer you are on. JS-Kit had issues moving from
computer to another.

What's New

Echo will not pop up in a new window as before. Instead, when clicking on "comments" the window will expand inline. This is typical of most other blogger commenting systems but is new to my blog. It takes no more time to do this than pop up a new window.

For new users, login or signup is the same. Just click on one of the options above to sign in.

As before, the first comment from everyone requires moderation. In this case, everyone.

I need some leeway in the time it takes to approve new users. However, I have better tools under Echo to see what comments await moderation. Hopefully the initial response will be faster than before.

The difference is we are starting with a blank slate. Everyone will have to be approved.

Here is the login window everyone will see.

Once you are logged in, simply type your comments in the above box.

Threaded vs. Unthreaded

The debate still rages. Some people like threaded mode. Others don't. Threaded mode works beautifully when there are under 50 comments. When comments get beyond a few pages, it can become unwieldy.

However, some people always like it. Others want to view comments sequentially by time stamp. It makes it easier to see what is new. Some like new comments displayed first other pure sequential.

There is no right or wrong actually. There are only preferences. Unfortunately, and as is with most other commenting systems, those preferences are not usable selectable.

For now, I have to make a selection. One of the moderators on my board has a strong preference for threaded mode.

Threaded mode it is. Let's try that for a while and see how it works out. In the meantime, I ask Echo for a user selectable set of controls so everyone can display comments as they see fit.

Migration of Comments

The last couple weeks of comments will be available shortly. A conversion process is already underway for the rest of them. Perhaps I only go back a year or so. Beyond that, I don't see that much use.

Those details will be up to the Echo team.

Issues

I am quite sure issues will arise just as they do with any new system. However, Echo is a big step in the right direction from JS-Kit.

It has numerous capabilities I did not turn on initially including incorporating comments from Facebook, Twitter, and other social network sites.

Thanks to Those Who Helped

With that I want to thank Khris Loux, Andrew Kushnir, Chris Saad, and the rest of the Echo staff for their assistance in this conversion.

Finally, one of the difficulties in this process is that nothing is easy in blogger templates. Here's to "MDH" who helped me in this effort. This migration would not have been possible without "MDH".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Obama's Definition of Halfway: 18%; What Would a Government Shutdown Mean?

Posted: 05 Mar 2011 03:15 PM PST

President Obama claims he is meeting Republicans "half-way" on Republican plans to reduce the deficit by $61 billion. "Half-way" is $11 billion ($10.5 billion to be more precise).

My math strongly suggests the president needs math lessons.

Please consider Obama offers deeper cuts, appeals for budget deal

President Barack Obama says he's willing to make deeper spending cuts if Congress can compromise on a budget deal that would end the threat of a government shutdown.

Obama's appeal for common ground came Saturday in his weekly radio and Internet address, but lacked specifics on how to bridge the $50 billion gulf that divides the White House and Democratic budget proposal from the deeper reductions offered by Republicans.

The government is running on a temporary spending bill that expires March 18, so the parties have until then to come up with a plan to pay for the remainder of the budget year through September.

"We need to come together, Democrats and Republicans, around a long-term budget that sacrifices wasteful spending without sacrificing the job-creating investments in our future," Obama said.

"My administration has already put forward specific cuts that meet congressional Republicans halfway. And I'm prepared to do more," said Obama.

But the claim that Democrats are meeting Republicans halfway only stands up under the Democratic explanation of the intricate numbers game being played on Capitol Hill.

Obama has threatened to veto that plan, and a Democratic offer of $6.5 billion in cuts -- on top of $4 billion already signed into law -- restores money the House GOP cuts from education, health and other programs.

"You may have heard President Obama say that we need to make sure 'we're living within our means,'" said freshman Rep. Diane Black, R-Tenn. "He's right about that. Unfortunately, his budget doesn't match his words.

Tortured Math

The way that article is worded, I am not even positive the Democrats have offered up even as as the $11 billion I gave them credit for.

I am struggling with the fact that the Democratic proposal "restores money the House GOP cuts from education, health and other programs."

What kind of tortured logic allows you to claim credit for cuts if you restore money elsewhere?

Let's dive deeper into one of Obama's statements: "We need to come together, Democrats and Republicans, around a long-term budget that sacrifices wasteful spending without sacrificing the job-creating investments in our future"

Since when is getting rid of wasteful spending "a sacrifice"?

What Would a Government Shutdown Do?

For all this concern about having a budget in place by March 18 (revised later from March 5 by some sort of emergency funding provision), does it really matter?

CNN Money discusses the setup in Shutdown: What you need to know

Which services would stop?

During the last major shutdown, the government closed 368 National Park Service sites, along with national museums and monuments.

In addition, 200,000 passport applications went unprocessed, and toxic waste cleanup work at 609 sites stopped. The National Institutes of Health stopped accepting new clinical research patients, and services for veterans, including health care, were curtailed.

Work on bankruptcy cases could slow. In the last shutdown, more than 3,500 cases were delayed.

Which services would the government keep running?

Agencies are allowed to perform any operations necessary for the safety of human life and protection of property.

The government would keep essential services -- like air traffic control and the national security apparatus -- in full operating mode.

Federal workers who provide medical care on the job would be kept on, as well as employees who handle hazardous waste, inspect food, patrol the borders, protect federal property, guard inmates or work in power distribution.

Workers who protect essential elements of the money and banking system would also report to work.

The Postal Service, which is self-funded, will continue to operate.

Preposterous Hype

For all the hype over a shutdown, I fail to see how it would matter much. Republicans should stick to their guns. I assure you the world will not end.

The world did not end in the Clinton administration during five days in November 1995 and another 21 days that ended January 1996.

Indeed the best thing might be for everyone to see how little a "shutdown" would matter.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Big-Box Retailers Reconsider Size; Saturation, Online Sales Affect Store Expansion Plans and Hiring Needs

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 11:45 PM PST

Online shopping not only has state departments of revenue pulling their hair out over lost sales tax revenue, it also has retailers like Best Buy, Sears, KMart, and Home Depot questioning, the merits of the big-box mentality itself.

The Wall Street Journal reports As Big Boxes Shrink, They Also Rethink

Major big-box retailers have been shifting to smaller stores—and scratching around for more profitable ways to fill under-used spaces as they go about reinventing themselves.

Sears Holdings Corp. is letting prospective tenants browse an online list of Kmart and Sears stores with space to rent.

Sears reached a deal to lease 34,000 square feet of store space in Greensboro, N.C., to Whole Foods Market Inc. for a grocery store set to open in 2012.

Home Depot Inc. is selling off portions of its parking lots to fast-food chains and auto repair shops. Gap Inc. is reverting to a Russian nesting-doll strategy: after years of expanding by adding standalone stores such as GapKids and Gap Body, it is shrinking them and stacking them back inside its namesake Gap stores.

Best Buy Co. last week became the latest retail chain to go smaller, announcing last week that it was slowing growth of new big-box stores this year in favor of adding 150 Best Buy Mobile locations, focused on smartphones.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. also said last week that it was accelerating the rollout of smaller locations—40,000 square feet or less—after it reported a seventh straight quarterly decline in sales at U.S. stores open at least a year. The retail giant, which rose to dominance with 185,000-foot Supercenters, plans to open its first Walmart Express store in the second quarter of this year, though it won't say where.

The miniature Staples carries just 1,200 of the retailer's most high-volume sales items, compared to 8,000 items in traditional stores.

Office Depot Inc., meanwhile, quietly began opening new shops the size of convenience stores in December. The new 5,000-square-foot Office Depot stores are barely a fifth the size of the company's traditional locations, yet still manage to contain the office supplies and copy and mail services that account for 93% of the bigger stores' sales, said Kevin Peters, Office Depot's North American retail president.

"Our box was just too big and didn't work for our customers," Mr. Peters said Wednesday. "We are reinventing Office Depot as a convenience retailer. Think CVS and Walgreens."

Key Word is Saturation

The "bigger is better model" that collapsed with residential real estate, has expanded to its big brother, commercial real estate.

The problem is not the size of the stores, but the sheer number of them. Areas that got by with a single Home Depot, now have 2 Home Depots, a Lowes, and a Menards.

If they all shrink, does it do any of them any good?

Store Advantages

Those who need something and want it now
Those who want to make comparisons and see a product in person

Online Shopping Advantages

It's invariably cheaper online
There is frequently no sales tax
You do not have to waste time and money traveling

Online Sales Have States Furious Over Lost Sales Taxes

Cash strapped states are furious with Amazon.Com over sales tax collections. Several states passed laws or have sent Amazon bills. Amazon's response in every case so far is to leave the state.

For details, please see Amazon May Cut Ties to California Over Tax Issues; Texas Distribution Site Closed Over Similar Issues Last Month; Litigation Issues Move to Forefront

Last week I went to Best Buy to buy a particular cable I needed. They did not have it. I ended up ordering it from Amazon. If stores shrink, and they do not have what customers want, customers will just buy more stuff online.

Big-Box Decisions Affect Store Hiring Plans

I am wondering, do we really need "Walmart Express" at all? At best it is a sign of total saturation of big boxes and a turf battle for smaller cities and neighborhoods.

As such, think about store hiring plans now vs. store hiring plans in the midst of the big-box commercial real estate boom.

With the new "smaller is better" model, another commercial real estate boom remotely close to the build-out that occurred in 2005-2007 is not in the cards.

Moreover, residential housing is still dead.

Together, the picture just does not add up to the 200,000+ jobs a month many economists and market cheerleaders expect.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Your Weekly Address: Cutting Waste, Investing in the Future

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, March 5, 2011

Your Weekly Address: Cutting Waste, Investing in the Future

The President calls for Democrats and Republicans to come together on a budget that cuts wasteful spending without sacrificing job-creating investments in education, innovation, and infrastructure.

Watch the video.

Weekly Wrap Up

On Education: This month, the President will be focused on his plan to improve American education through investments that focus on responsibility, reform, and results:

President Obama travels to Miami to visit a high school that has been an example of how federal support has turned around struggling schools.
John Legend encourages students to apply for the Race to the Top Commencement Challenge. One high school will be selected to have President Obama speak at its commencement this spring. The deadline to apply is March 11.
Oh, and Nick Jonas did too.
The First Lady and Secretary of Education Arne Duncan read to children at the Library of Congress as part of "Read Across America Day," and in celebration of Dr. Seuss' 107th birthday.

The Motown Sound: Continuing a favorite White House tradition, the President and First Lady welcome renowned musical artists to the White House to celebrate music that’s at the heart of the American story.

Giving States the Power to Innovate: In his address to the meeting of the National Governors' Association, President Obama called for giving states the flexibility to find the best ways to meet standards of care outlined in the Affordable Care Act. Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius explained what that flexibility means for states across the country.

West Wing Week Video: "Green Eggs and Governors"

Focusing on Military Families: The First Lady and Dr. Biden speak to the National Governors' Association, promoting their continued efforts to serve our Nation's military families.

More Signs of Economic Growth: Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, talks about the positive news from the February jobs report. Labor Secretary Hilda Solis shares photos from her trip to auto manufacturers in the Midwest, and Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood posts a video from his trip to a clean-energy manufacturing plant in South Carolina.

Violence in Libya: President Obama discusses ongoing turmoil in Libya with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, and also addresses it during his joint press conference with Mexican President Felipe Calderon.

Innovation at ARPA-E: The Department of Energy hosts the ARPA-E Energy Innovation Summit, where scientists and business leaders came together to share ideas for developing the next generation of American energy technology.

Black History Month 2011: As February came to a close, WhiteHouse.gov wrapped up its Celebrating Black History Month series, and looked back on the events at the White House through the month.

Developing Rural Broadband: The USDA is using Recovery Act funds and working with Native Americans to bring high-speed broadband to rural America.

Remembering the Last Doughboy: Veterans Affairs commemorates the life of Frank Buckles, the last suriviving American World War One veteran, who died this week at 110.

Keeping Homes Affordable: The Department of the Treasury posts information about how terminating foreclosure prevention aid would seriously damage the still-fragile housing market.

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SEOptimise

Keyword Density – Finally Useful for SEOs and Penguins

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 06:29 AM PST

As it's a Friday afternoon and we're all winding down for the weekend, I thought it would be an appropriate time to reveal a lighthearted tale involving keyword density, penguins, and Sambuca that I recently admitted to the SEOptimise team – something terribly shameful…

A story of why keyword density is in fact not dead.

A few friends and I were playing the infamous 'Happy Feet drinking game' whereby each player is assigned a frequently mentioned word that whenever they hear whilst watching the film Happy Feet has to drink a shot. I was assigned the word 'fish' (which I wrongly assumed wouldn't be mentioned very much).

It was at that point that my geek instincts kicked in and I went to Google to download a script of the movie. I subsequently inputted it into a keyword density checker to identify the most frequently used keywords in the film so that I could strategically assign the most frequently mentioned words to the friends who I felt deserved the most Sambuca!

So there you are, whoever said keyword density is useless? It's only useless when optimising websites :-)

How to kick start your Friday with some Keyword Density Drinking Games:

1. Pick a film with characters renowned for frequently repeating specific words. My recommendations: Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, Gordon Ramsay's 'The F Word'.

2. Download the subtitles for the film & input the text into a KW density checker.

3. Assign the most frequently mentioned words to those who deserve the most revenge.

4. Play! Enjoy.

Seth's Blog : Important/Measured

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Important/Measured

Is something important because you measure it, or is it measured because it's important?

Does our new ability to see things with web data make the previously overlooked now visible, or are we giving weight to things merely because we''ve measured them?