Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Greece Played Germany Like a Violin; Horrified Syriza Demands 'Icelandic' Default Posted: 16 Jun 2015 01:48 PM PDT A time-based analysis of eurozone taxpayer liabilities shows the Greek game-masters played German creditors like a violin. What got me thinking about this in detail was a recent statement by Financial Times writer Wolfgang Münchau that France and Germany stand to forfeit €160 billion if Greece defaults. On January 22, I had French exposure at €55 billion and German exposure at €73 billion, a total of €128 billion. See Revised Greek Default Scenario: Liabilities Shifted to German and French Taxpayers; Bluff of the Day Revisited The difference between our numbers is almost all due to a huge jump in Target2 imbalances. Let's take a look. Partial Table of Liabilities January 22 IESEG Bilateral loans Guarantees on the borrowings of EFSF to fund its loans Implicit share of TARGET2 claims of the Eurosystem Implicit share in the SMP holdings of bonds by the Eurosystem Total France 11.389 31.02 8.651 4.148 55.209 Germany 15.165 41.308 10.981 5.266 72.72 Italy 10.008 27.259 7.511 3.602 48.380 Spain 6.65 18.113 5.394 2.587 32.744 Total 52.9 141.8 41.709 20 256.409 The above table derived from Exposure of European Countries to Greece by Dr. Eric Dor, IESEG School of management. The total does not add up because I included only France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Partial Table of Liabilities March 4 IESEG Bilateral loans Guarantees on the borrowings of EFSF to fund its loans Implicit share of TARGET2 claims of the Eurosystem Implicit share in the SMP holdings of bonds by the Eurosystem Total France 11.389 31.02 15.308 5.439 63.156 Germany 15.165 41.308 19.430 6.903 82.806 Italy 10.008 27.259 13.291 4.722 55.280 Spain 6.65 18.112 9.545 3.391 37.698 Total 52.9 141.8 75.994 27 297.694 On March 4, the taxpayer liability of France and Germany increased to approximately €145 billion. The liability of the "big four" jumped from €209 billion to €239 billion. Target2 Now Yesterday, reader Lars from Norway pinged me with these thoughts. Hello Mish Draghi revealed today that the current Intra-Eurosystem liabilities of the Bank of Greece is €118 billion. It is unclear if this is Target2 plus banknotes. If it is, then the increase since end April is only €3 billion. That's not much, but the €118 billion represent 66% of Greek GDP. It's also a little more than 2 times ECBs equity. The Bank of Greece has not published the end of May balance sheet yet. They normally do that mid-month. The ECB will continue to extend liquidity to Greece as long as collateral is provided. I suppose that collateral will collapse in value if Greece defaults. Draghi is either very brave or very stupid. Then again, he says his approach is rules based, so he is on auto pilot. The Greek drama will continue as long as liquidity is provided by ECB to Greece. Regards Lars Math at €118 Billion At the best case scenario (not counting additional cash under the mattress by Greek citizens), Target2 is a minimum of €118 billion. Assuming the other numbers don't change much (the first two columns shouldn't change at all) the math looks something like this. Mish Calc Bilateral loans Guarantees on the borrowings of EFSF to fund its loans Implicit share of TARGET2 claims of the Eurosystem Implicit share in the SMP holdings of bonds by the Eurosystem Total France 11.389 31.02 24.47 5.439 72.32 Germany 15.165 41.308 31.07 6.903 94.45 Italy 10.008 27.259 21.25 4.722 63.24 Spain 6.65 18.112 15.26 3.391 43.41 Total 52.9 141.8 118.0 27 339.7 I took the IESEG numbers and plugged in €118 billion as a total Target2 liability, split as shown. Germany and France total liability by this calculation is about €167 billion, a number very close to Wolfgang Münchau's calculation of €160 billion, and up from approximately €128 billion at the end of January. The "big four" liability is now about €273 billion. Can someone, anyone tell me where Italy can or will come up with €63 billion or Spain with €43 billion? Loaded Gun Question Previously I asked "Who has the loaded gun and who doesn't?" "If Greece is smart, it will not implement capital controls until the ECB shuts down the ELA, forcing the issue. Greece will then have the ECB and Germany to blame for the resultant controls." Traditional analysis failed miserably. Nearly all, if not all of mainstream media, thought the creditors had the upper hand. Quoting Bob Dylan I said "When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose" (See "Air of Unreality"; "Do You Feel Lucky, Punk?"; Who Has the Gun?) Germany Still Trapped The only way Germany can stop Target2 from rising further is to shut off the ELA. The moment it does so, the ECB or Germany gets the blame. In situations like these, the sooner you take the punishment the better. But here we are, with increased capital flight every day. Germans can and will point the finger for this one at Angela Merkel, yet another victory for Greece. Horrified Syriza Demands 'Icelandic' Default Today we learn the EU is calling an emergency meeting. Good luck with that. There's nothing they can do at this point. Didn't they say just yesterday the ball in in Greece's court? Today we also learned the Syriza Left Demands 'Icelandic' Default as Defiance Stiffens. The radical wing of Greece's Syriza party is to table plans over coming days for an Icelandic-style default and a nationalisation of the Greek banking system, deeming it pointless to continue talks with Europe's creditor powers. Syriza sources say measures being drafted include capital controls and the establishment of a sovereign central bank able to stand behind a new financial system. While some form of dual currency might be possible in theory, such a structure would be incompatible with euro membership and would imply a rapid return to the drachma. The confidential plans were circulating over the weekend and have the backing of 30 MPs from the Aristeri Platforma or 'Left Platform', as well as other hard-line groupings in Syriza's spectrum. It is understood that the nationalist ANEL party in the ruling coalition is also willing to force a rupture with creditors, if need be. "This goes well beyond the Left Platform. We are talking serious numbers," said one Syriza MP involved in the draft. "We are all horrified by the idea of surrender, and we will not allow ourselves to be throttled to death by European monetary union," he told the Telegraph. Mr Tsipras warned over the weekend in the clearest terms to date that Greece's creditors should not push him too far. "Our only criterion is an end to the 'memoranda of servitude' and an exit from the crisis," he said. "If Europe wants the division and the perpetuation of servitude, we will take the plunge and issue a 'big no'. We will fight for the dignity of the people and our sovereignty," he said. European officials examined 'war game' scenarios of a Greek default in Bratislava on Thursday, admitting for the first time that they may need a Plan B after all. They have been negotiating on the assumption that Syriza must be bluffing, and will ultimately capitulate. Little thought has gone into possibility that key figures in Athens may be thinking along entirely different lines. Central Bank Arrogance Recall the statement: "There is No Plan B"? Let's go back much further. Does anyone even recall the start of this nonsense? Of course, it goes back to the creation of the eurozone in the first place. A monetary union without a fiscal union is inevitably going to break apart. And the eurozone never should have admitted Greece in the first place. But I am referring to statements by prior ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet regarding no haircuts and no defaults. Here is a small snip from my July 7, 2011 article Trichet Says "No" to Selective Default. The ECB has proved a major stumbling block in agreeing a second rescue plan for Greece as it has threatened to refuse restructured Greek bonds as collateral in its lending operations in the event of a default or a "restricted default," which ratings agencies are threatening to impose. "We say no to selective default," Trichet said. I responded "Trichet can shout 'no default' from the mountain tops but it is not his call to make." Trichet Ballistic Over Term "Soft Restructuring" On May 19, 2011 I noted Trichet Goes Ballistic, Walks Out of Meeting Over the Term "Soft Restructuring" Prior to that Trichet said numerous times there would be "no haircuts" on Greek debt. Here we are, two major bailouts accompanied with haircuts later. Along the way, eurozone nannycrats and the ECB turned a minor problem into a €330 billion problem. The arrogance of central bankers who believe they can control markets with talk is stunning. Neither the ECB nor the eurozone nannycrats is in control of this situation. They don't have a loaded gun, and are not in any position to make demands. I am curious how much longer it will take them to figure this out. I will accept as evidence they finally understand reality the moment the ECB shuts off the ELA. At least they are working on "Plan B". Turnabout Irony Note the irony of it all. Germany wanted to issue a "Take it or leave it proposal to Greece". Instead we see Greece issuing a "Restructure or we leave proposal to Germany". It's likely this was Syriza's plan all along.  If so, they managed to play Germany like a finely tuned violin, allowing Greek citizens to pull out cash out of banks every day for six months. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Housing Starts Decline 11.1%, Underperform Economists' Expectations, Still Labeled "Solid"; GDPNowcast Ticks Down 0.1% Posted: 16 Jun 2015 10:32 AM PDT Housing starts underperformed the Bloomberg Econoday Economists' Consensus Estimate enough for the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast to give back the 0.1% it gained yesterday, yet the report is still considered "solid". Don't let the headline fool you, the housing starts & permits report points to solid strength for the housing sector. Starts came in at a 1.036 million rate in May which is down 11.1 percent from the April rate but the April rate, which was already one for the record books, is now revised higher to 1.165 million for, and this is no misprint, a 22.1 percent gain from March. Sealing matters is another gigantic surge in permits, up 11.8 percent to 1.275 million following a 9.8 percent gain in April. Forecasters will be revising their second-quarter GDP estimates higher following today's report, not to mention their estimates for Thursday's index of leading economic indicators where permits are one of the components. Permits are the leading indicator in the report and the latest rate is the best since way back in August 2007. The gain is centered in the Northeast followed by the Midwest. Turning to starts, the monthly step back is split between all regions with the Northeast, in contrast to permits, showing the largest percentage decrease. The housing sector is moving to the top of the economy, just as many suspected following a first quarter that was depressed by heavy weather. Watch tomorrow for descriptions of the housing sector in the FOMC statement and also Janet Yellen's comments at her press conference. Atlanta Fed Forecast Revised Lower I do not know what economists in general will do, but I do know that contrary to Bloomberg's prediction, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Forecast ticked down following today's report. Latest forecast — June 16, 2015 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 1.9 percent on June 16, unchanged from June 11. The nowcast for real GDP growth ticked up to 2.0 percent after yesterday morning's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve boosted the forecasts of real investment in petroleum and natural gas well structures and motor vehicle and parts dealer inventories. The GDP nowcast moved back down to 1.9 percent after this morning's housing starts release from the U.S. Census Bureau reduced the forecast for real residential investment growth from 8.8 percent to 6.8 percent. Evolution of GDPNow Comparing both April and May to the abysmal March is as lame as it would be to label the decline today as overwhelming. If this is weather-related as economists insisted, then this is a weather-related snap-back as well. Which is it? Before anyone gets really excited by housing numbers, here is a bit of historical perspective. Housing Starts Historical Perspective At this level of starts, the economy was in recession a perfect seven times out of seven previously. And on a population adjusted basis, this number of starts is actually pathetic. Nonetheless, housing will still add to GDP as conditions are generally improving. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Damn Cool Pics

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• Is This Cat Actually An Alien?
• Unethical Life Hacks You Can Use To Cheat At Life
• How To Visit Every Filming Location From Game Of Thrones [Infographic]

Is This Cat Actually An Alien? Posted: 16 Jun 2015 03:21 PM PDT Matilda is a two year old cat that often gets called an alien due to her large glassy eyes. She already has well over 18,000 followers on Instagram and people even draw far art of her riding in spaceships. via instagram

Unethical Life Hacks You Can Use To Cheat At Life Posted: 16 Jun 2015 03:14 PM PDT If you don't care about morals or ethics, you might actually find that these life hacks are just what you need to melt that icy cold heart of yours.

How To Visit Every Filming Location From Game Of Thrones [Infographic] Posted: 15 Jun 2015 08:36 PM PDT Fans of the popular Game of Thrones television series can now visit the places in which every episode of the show was filmed at.  Created by Moroccan travel company Lawrence of Morocco, the infographic labeled the different seasons in color codes, while showing the actual name of the location and country where the filming took place.  For instance, Glens of Antrim in Northern Ireland was Dothraki Sea in the show, and Daenerys and Drogo's wedding was shot at the Azure Window of Malta.  Click on Image to Enlarge.

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Can You Rank in Google Without Links? New Data Says Slim Chance - Moz Blog

Can You Rank in Google Without Links? New Data Says Slim Chance

Posted by Cyrus-Shepard

For years now, we've heard the drumbeat from Google that marketers should stop focusing on building links. While it's accepted wisdom that you should avoid manipulative link building to rank higher in search results, the popular narrative would have us believe that external links aren't important in Google's ranking algorithms at all, and that link building can be safely ignored.

Is there any truth to this?

To find out, we mined new information from our upcoming biannual ranking correlation study, conducted by Moz's scientist, Dr. Matthew Peters.

https://moz.com/learn/seo/external-link

Moz's study examined the top 50 Google search results for approximately 15,000 keywords. This allowed us to examine not only what factors correlate with higher search rankings, but also how frequently those characteristics are seen.

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At this point I must insert the usual caveat that correlation is not causation. Simply because a feature is strongly related to high rankings, this doesn't prove or disprove that Google actually uses it in its algorithm. That said, it sure is a hint!

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The relationship between external links and rankings

When we look at what the study found about links, we find a strong relationship.

The correlation between higher rankings and the number of linking websites (root domains) sits at .30. This number seems small, but it's actually one of the highest correlations the study found. (Smaller correlations are also not surprising—with over 200 ranking signals, Google specifically designed their algorithm so that one factor doesn't dominate the others.)

Even more telling is the number of websites we found in the top results that had external backlinks, or rather, the lack thereof.

Out of the top results, a full 99.2% of all websites had at least one external link. (The remaining .8% is well within the margin of error expected between Mozscape and Google's own link index.) The study found almost no websites ranking for competitive search phrases that didn't have at least a single external link pointing at them, and most had significantly more links.

In other words, if you're looking for a site that ranks well with no external links, be prepared to look for a very long time.

That said, the study did find numerous examples where individual pages ranked just fine without specific external links, as long as the website itself had external links pointing at it. For example, consider when The New York Times publishes a new page. Because it's new, it has no external links yet. But because The New York Times' website itself has tons of external links, it's possible for the new page to rank.

In all, 77.8% of individual pages in the top results had at least one external link from another site, which means 22.2% of individual pages ranked with no external links.

What the data says about links and Google rankings

There are a number of conclusions you can reasonably draw from these numbers.

1. External links are almost always present for competitive searches

If you want to rank for anything that's even remotely competitive, the chances of finding a website ranking without external links is very rare indeed.

2. It's possible to rank individual pages without links

As long as your website itself is linked externally, it appears more than possible to rank individual pages on your site, even if those pages themselves don't have external links. That said, there's a strong relationship between links to a page, and that pages performance in search—so it's much better if the page actually does have external links.

To put this in layman's terms, if a lot of people link to your website homepage, it's possible for other pages to rank as well, but it's even better if those pages also have external links pointing at them.

Although not examined in this study, it's likely most of the pages without external links at least had internal links pointing at them. While not as strong as an external link, internal links remain a decent way to pass authority, relevancy and popularity signals to pages on the same site.

3. More links correlate with higher rankings

It seems obvious, but the study confirmed the long-standing correlation between higher rankings and the number of external links found from unique websites.

Indeed, out of all the data points the ranking correlation study looked at, the number of unique websites linking to a page was one of the highest correlated relationships we found.

4. When can you rank without links?

Despite the fact that we found almost no websites ranking without external links, it is still possible?

Absolutely, but there's a catch.

The 15,000 keyword phrases used in this study were, for the most part, competitive. This means that lots of other people and websites are trying to rank for the same term. Think of phrases like "Galaxy s6" and "New York car insurance."

Non-competitive phrases, by their nature, are much easier to rank for. So if you want your website to rank without obtaining any backlinks, you might succeed by targeting more obscure phrases like "Oregon beekeeper ballet emporium" or "Batman flux platypus." These phrases have much lower competition, and by default, much lower traffic (and in many cases, none.)

There are other edge cases where it's possible to rank without links, such as when the user is searching for your website specifically, or when you offer something very unique that can't be found anywhere else. Even in these cases, it helps tremendously to actually have links pointing at you.

Proceed with caution

There's good reason people believe link building is dead, as readers of this blog know well. For readers less familiar with this concept, or those newer to SEO...

A link isn't always a link.

In the past 10 years, after people spammed the heck out of link building to gain higher rankings, Google began cracking down in a serious way starting in 2012. First with its Penguin algorithm, then by de-indexing several link networks, and then by cracking down on guest blogging.

Today, even slight deviations from Google's guidelines on manipulative links can land webmasters in penalty jail.

The web is filled with links. Billions of them. Many are built by robots, some are paid for by advertisers, some are good old fashioned editorial links. The challenge for Google is to separate the good from the bad in its ranking algorithm.

When Google finds a link pointing at your website, it can choose to do one of 3 things:

1. Count it in its ranking algorithm
2. Ignore it - or not give it any weight in boosting your rankings
3. Penalize you - if it thinks the link is manipulative

In fact, most people would be surprised to learn how many links don't actually help you to rank, or can actually hurt. To play within Google's good graces, it's best to understand Google's guidelines on manipulative link building, and knowing what types of links to avoid.

The safest link building is simply link earning, and to get your content in front of the right people.

But trying to rank in Google without any links at all?

Fuhgeddaboudit.

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Photo Credit: Geographically Accurate Paris Metro Map by Nojhan under Creative Common License

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Study: 300 Google Sitelinks Search Boxes - Triggers and Trip-Ups Analyzed

Posted by Royh

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of Moz, Inc.

The sitelinks search box (schema.org/SearchAction) is one of the most popular markups out there. According to SimilarTech, there are now more than 650,000 sites that have implemented this markup, making it one of the most popular of all schema markup types.

That said, we don't really know the reason why Google sometimes shows the search box for branded queries for sites that have implemented the markup, and sometimes doesn't. While we don't know what Google's criteria are behind the search box algorithm, we have the data to definitely see that there's a correlation between the traffic of the websites and the appearance of the markup.

source: "Sitelinks Search Box" on Google's developers site

What determines if Google displays your search box?

Using a SimilarTech "Websites using SearchAction Schema Entity" report, we compiled a list of websites implementing the above schema. We chose over 300 websites to sample, with varying traffic volumes. Then we researched each site and checked if Google was displaying a sitelinks search box when searching for the URL.

If we found a search box wasn't displayed, we looked at the website in question to see if there were technical issues (based on Google's setup instructions). Finally, we analyzed the results and produced the most common scenarios that would prevent Google from showing the sitelinks search box for a website.

Reasons why the sitelinks search box may not show (and what to do about it)

This list is ordered by frequency, from the most common to least common reasons that the Google sitelinks searchbox isn't being displayed:

Reason No. 1: Traffic to the website is too low

As you can see in the chart, amongst the sites with SearchAction schema markup, there's a definite correlation between website traffic and the likelihood that the searchbox will appear in Google search results. There were just a few sites (2.5%) with 100K monthly desktop visits where the searchbox was displayed. By contrast, nearly three-quarters of the sites with 50M monthly desktop visits had the sitelinks searchbox.

All the websites we tested implemented the schema SearchAction markup.

Here's what it means:

• Monthly desktop visits – the number of average monthly desktop visits to the website according to SimilarWeb's analytics.
• With "site:" search box – the number of websites that have the "site:" search box for their website:

• With the custom search box – the number of websites that have the custom search box for their website:

The biggest difference between the custom search box and the "site:" search box: Searches inside the custom search box will redirect you to the website results page in the website itself, while the searches in the site:searchbox will lead you to a second search within Google.

Reason No. 2: Markup is not implemented in the site

This is fairly obvious, but it needs to be reiterated: The searchbox can only appear if the markup is implemented. There are two available schema formats you can use to implement the markup.

1. Using JSON-LD:

2. Using Microdata:

The Google recommendation is to implement the JSON-LD format, so if you prefer to do that, you can find the instructions here.

Reason No. 3: The URL attribute is wrong

This occurs when the "URL" attribute's value doesn't match the canonical URL of the domain's homepage, or there are problems with the canonical tags of the main domain.

The most common problems are differences between the URL value in the markup to the domain himself.

Here are some examples:

• http:// instead of https:// or the opposite
• With WWW or without

This can be tested by using Google's structured data testing tool and checking for problems with the URL value.

Reason No. 4: Issues with the search results page

The "target" attribute in the markup should point to the search results page URL on the website, including a placeholder for the query input parameter name, wrapped by curly braces.

"target": "https://query.example.com/search?q={search_term_string}" 

• "target" attribute is not defined in the markup or defined incorrectly.
• No search results page exists (404) or it's returning a server error (500)
• The results page never yields results or the content is irrelevant to the search query input (this can be due to a technical problem in the engine of the search results page)
• The field of the target in the markup isn't defined well.

Reason No. 5: The query input doesn't match

The value of the "query-input" name attribute doesn't match the string that's inside the curly braces in the "target" property. You need to make sure that the value of the "name" will match, otherwise it won't work.

"query-input": "required name=search_term_string" 

Reason No. 6: Using nositelinkssearchbox to disable the markup

Use this tag and, you guessed it, Google won't show the searchbox. But unless you're actively trying to disable the searchbox markup, this is likely one of the least common scenarios.

Now that we've covered all the reasons the sitelinks searchbox may not appear, here's what it means in a nutshell:

Beyond markup: Best practices for winning the box

First, there's a very strong correlation to site traffic. This is perhaps the main factor that determines whether or not Google will show the search box, even if all technical issues are addressed and schema is implemented correctly. Again, out of the websites we sampled that have more than 50M monthly desktop visits, 74% of them have sitelinks searchbox for their websites. When we checked the websites that have just 25-100K monthly visits, however, only 1.4% had the searchbox working for their site.

Secondly, as you can see from the various reasons listed above, there are a slew of technical kinks that may result in Google not displaying the searchbox. Some of these have to do with improperly implemented schema. If you suspect a technical issue is to blame, be sure to go through all of the tech-related scenarios listed above to ensure the bug is found. Then you can use our troubleshooting tips to fix the problem.

As you can see, there are several factors that affect the searchbox appearance in Google's search results. But if you play your cards right and do your due diligence, getting those valuable searchboxes to appear is easier than you think.

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Seth's Blog : Abandoning perfection

Abandoning perfection

It's possible you work in an industry built on perfect. That you're a scrub nurse in the OR, or an air traffic controller or even in charge of compliance at a nuclear power plant.

The rest of us, though, are rewarded for breaking things. Our job, the reason we have time to read blogs at work or go to conferences or write memos is that our organization believes that just maybe, we'll find and share a new idea, or maybe (continuing a run on sentence) we'll invent something important, find a resource or connect with a key customer in a way that matters.

So, if that's your job, why are you so focused on perfect?

Perfect is the ideal defense mechanism, the work of Pressfield's Resistance, the lizard brain giving you an out. Perfect lets you stall, ask more questions, do more reviews, dumb it down, safe it up and generally avoid doing anything that might fail (or anything important).

You're not in the perfect business. Stop pretending that's what the world wants from you.

Truly perfect is becoming friendly with your imperfections on the way to doing something remarkable.

       

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