Central Perk: 31 dec. 2015

joi, 31 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Expect a Huge Jump in Layoffs in 2016; Eye on Initial Unemployment Claims: Have they Bottomed?

Posted: 31 Dec 2015 12:53 PM PST

I have a watchful eye on initial unemployment claims. They have been trending higher (unexpectedly of course) since mid-October.

Initial Claims 2015

Econoday economists were surprised by the jump.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped 20,000 to 287,000 in the December 26 holiday week, the highest level since the July 4 holiday week. The Econoday consensus expected an increase of 3,000 to 270,000. The 4-week moving average was up 4,500 to 277,000 in the December 26 week, the highest since the July 18 week. The level of continuing claims increased 3,000 to 2.198 million in the December 19 week. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment was unchanged at 1.6 percent in the December 19 week. It should be noted that readings in this report can be volatile during the holiday weeks.

Long-Term Perspective

A long-term chart shows the claims are still at historic lows dating all the way back to the 1970s. Does that imply there is little cause for concern?

Let's look at the chart another way.

That chart shows recessions sometimes start with year-over-year changes still negative and sometimes not. Moreover, there is a tremendous amount of noise as evidenced by huge swings that did not lead to recession.

Low claims in and of themselves are pretty inconclusive even though huge spikes tend to mark recessions.

Where to in 2016?

Jobs have been strong, but some of us believe part-time jobs and Obamacare artifacts have skewed the numbers. Regardless, jobs are a hugely lagging indicator, even if you believe the numbers.

Since there was a burst of seasonal hiring, it stands to reason there will be a burst of seasonal firing.

With corporate profits under pressure from rising wages, and with many big box retailers struggling, upcoming layoffs are likely to be huge.

Recent PMI reports provide clues as to where things are headed:

December 19: Growth in Service PMI Shrinks Sharply
December 26: Chicago PMI Crashes, New Orders and Backlogs Plunge to May 2009 Level; Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

Manufacturing is in an outright recession, and services are weakening. It stands to reason, jobs will follow.

We will find out in the January jobs report, to be released Friday, February 5, 2016.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Chicago PMI Crashes, New Orders and Backlogs Plunge to May 2009 Level; Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

Posted: 31 Dec 2015 10:48 AM PST

The Unexpected Strikes Chicago Again

It was another disastrous month for the Chicago PMI. Economists expected a bounce back from last month's unexpected dip into negative territory. Instead the numbers reflect what's best described as a two-month crash.

The Econoday Consensus Estimate was a guess of 50 in a range of 48 to 53. The actual reading of 42.9 was far below any economist's estimate.

The December Chicago PMI tumbled to a reading of just 42.9, down 5.8 points. The reading was a fresh 6-1/2 year low and the seventh contraction this year. It also was far below expectations of a breakeven reading of 50.

The biggest contributor to the decline was a 17.2 point plunge in order backlogs, to 29.4, marking their eleventh consecutive month in contraction. December's reading was the lowest since May 2009. The index also was depressed by ongoing weakness in new orders, which contracted at a faster pace, down 5.3 points to 38.8, the lowest level since May 2009. Both production and employment fell into contraction.

The only component to expand at a faster pace was supplier deliveries, although some companies noted that the rise was influenced more by logistics issues during the holiday season and in preparation for Chinese New Year on February 8. The PMI continued to feel the ill effects of general sluggish demand and lower energy prices, which have left their mark on Chicago area companies, along with the stronger U.S. dollar. Moreover, well above normal temperatures has impacted many businesses that rely on cold weather.

Ahead of the release this is what Econoday had to say:

The Chicago PMI is a one of a kind, a regional report that tracks the whole scope of the economy, at least for Chicago. Big swings are the norm but one isn't expected for December with the consensus calling for what would be a small 1.3 point gain for this index to dead even 50, which is about where this index has been trending.

Chicago PMI Index vs. ISM

It does not appear to me the index has been trending around 50 as Bloomberg suggests. The three jumps above 50 are counter-trend in a series that has been weakening for about a year.

Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

The Chicago PMI is a bit different because it contains a mix of both manufacturing and service companies. That makes matters worse given economists generally consider the service economy to be in good shape.

Last month when the PMI dipped for the 6th time in 10 months (now 7th time in 11 months), I asked the question Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

Here is the pertinent snip:

Bloomberg proposes the volatility of the report should limit its impact on the month's outlook.

I suggest volatility is a sign of a trend change as well as underlying weakness. And the backlog of orders, one place where there has been consistent contraction for 10 months, does not bode well for future hiring needs.

All things considered, the Chicago PMI is a warning that the service economy may be on its last legs.

Reflections on the Weather

This month, Bloomberg relies on the old standby: the weather.

Damn that weather. It's always too hot, too cold, or too right. This month it was too pleasant.

Heading into the reports, it's pretty clear the economists did not know the Chicago weather was too good, otherwise they would have lowered their forecasts.

Economists only learned Chicago's weather was too good following the PMI release today. Amazingly, economists don't even know about massive snowstorms until economic reports come out weeks later.

Sorry State of Chicago

Weakening services coupled with the biggest property tax hike in history will not do wonders for the Chicago economy.

For more on the sorry state of affairs in Chicago and the state of Illinois as a whole, please see ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock