Central Perk: 16 dec. 2012

duminică, 16 decembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

What Can be Automated, Will be Automated: Video of Automated Meat Processing Plant Without a Soul in Sight
Spotlight on Japan: Return of 'Abenomics', More Militarism, Tougher China Line; Outlook for Yen and Nikkei
Is Boehner Capitulating on Tax Hike Boost? Blame Game Posturing

What Can be Automated, Will be Automated: Video of Automated Meat Processing Plant Without a Soul in Sight

Posted: 16 Dec 2012 09:17 PM PST

The days of getting carpal tunnel syndrome from cutting meat are now over, at least as measured by a meat processing plant in Greece, shown in the video below.

The video starts out a bit slow, but is rather fascinating once it gets going. I played it until the end. Eventually a single person comes into view, but that person runs and monitors the machines.

Link if video does not play: Greek Meat Processing Plant

Automation Rules

What can be automated, will.
The number of things that can be automated increases every month

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Spotlight on Japan: Return of 'Abenomics', More Militarism, Tougher China Line; Outlook for Yen and Nikkei

Posted: 16 Dec 2012 02:36 PM PST

The Japanese election hands former prime minister Shinzo Abe a chance for redemption according to The Guardian.

Japan's voters appear to have short memories. Shinzo Abe, who is assured of becoming prime minister after his party's resounding victory in Sunday's election, last led the country in 2006, but stepped down after a troubled year in office.

The official reason given for his abrupt resignation was a chronic bowel ailment, which the leader, 58, says he now controls with a new drug. But his health condition may have been a cover. Abe's first administration was marred by scandals and gaffes. Months before he quit, his Liberal Democratic party [LDP] suffered a heavy defeat in upper house elections.

Sunday's resounding election victory has given him one last shot at redemption, as only the second Japanese politician to serve twice as prime minister since the war.

Behind Abe's soft-spoken manner and aristocratic background lurks a fervent nationalist, which led one liberal commentator to describe him as "the most dangerous politician in Japan".

Abe has often said he went into politics to help Japan "escape the postwar regime" and throw off the shackles of wartime guilt. In its place he has talked of creating a "beautiful Japan" defended by a strong military and guided by a new sense of national pride.

Abe's biggest ideological influence was his maternal grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, who was arrested, but never charged, for alleged war crimes. He went on to become prime minister in the late 1950s.

Decades later, confronted with an aggressive China and nuclear-armed North Korea, Abe is eager to fulfil his grandfather's dream of giving Japan's military the teeth he believes it has been denied by the country's postwar pacifism.

More Militarism, Preposterous Denial

The BBC reports Shinzo Abe vows tough China line

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes says that as many predicted, Japan has taken a sharp turn to the right.

Mr Noda lost over his move to double sales tax, something he said was necessary to tackle Japan's massive debt.

By contrast, Mr Abe has promised more public spending, looser monetary policy, and to allow nuclear energy a role to play in resource-poor Japan's future despite last year's nuclear disaster at Fukushima.

But economists say there is little new in Mr Abe's policies, or 'Abenomics' as they have been called. They have been adopted by previous LDP governments without successfully renewing the Japanese economy.

In a recent interview, Mr Abe told me [Rupert Wingfield-Hayes] it was time for Japan to change its pacifist constitution so it can have a proper military and defend its own territory. He also vowed to protect every inch of Japan's sacred land and sea - including the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands.

That by itself is not particularly controversial. But Mr Abe belongs to that part of Japanese society that does not really believe Japan's wartime aggression against China and South East Asia was a crime.

He favours the teaching of a more patriotic, uncritical version of Japanese history. Most controversially, he has openly said he does not believe that Japanese troops forced Chinese, Korean, and women from other Asian countries into sexual slavery during the Second World War.

China will now be watching very closely. Will Mr Abe, as prime minister, visit the extremely controversial Yasakuni Shrine in Tokyo to pay homage to Japan's war dead? Will he move to revoke a 1993 Japanese government apology on the "comfort women" issue? And what will he do to about Chinese ships and aircraft challenging Japan's control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands?

Turn to the Right?

More fiscal stimulus coupled with pressure on the central bank for looser monetary policies cannot be associated with "right-wing" politics.

However, his request to change the constitution to allow Japan to "have a proper military and defend its own territory, including every inch of Japan's sacred land and sea - including the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands" is certainly right-wing.

Abe's denial regarding "comfort women" in World War II is as preposterous as neo-Nazi claims that Hitler did not kill Jews.

On these three issues, his monetary policy is a scary turn to the left, his militarism is a scary turn to the right, and his denial regarding "comfort women" is a dive straight into the loony bin.

Yen, Nikkei

The politics of Abe seem favorable for a continued decline in the Yen and a rise in Japanese equities.

$XJY Yen Daily

$NIKK Nikkei Daily

Since Mid-November the Nikkei has been on an upward tear. The Yen has been in decline since the start of October.

Both trends have favorable fundamentals, and both are worth watching.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Is Boehner Capitulating on Tax Hike Boost? Blame Game Posturing

Posted: 16 Dec 2012 10:11 AM PST

House speaker John Boehner made an incremental move in Obama's direction in regards to tax hikes.

Specifically, Boehner offered to raise income tax rates on households earning more than $1 million a year in exchange for containing the cost of federal entitlement programs.

Discussion are private, and president Obama rejected the offer. Specifically, the president wants hikes on those making more than $250,000. Obama also wants to avoid making significant reductions in entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare.

Blame Game Posturing

On the surface, this appears to be a major change in attitude by Boehner. Previously, Boehner wanted to avoid all tax hikes, instead offering the closing of loopholes to raise revenue.

Is this move a sign of capitulation or blame game posturing?

I suggest the latter. Public opinion polls show a majority of people behind some tax hikes on the wealthy. Boehner now has an offer on the table.

There may be one more move in Obama's direction to something like tax hikes on those making $500,000 or more. However, each move Boehner makes in the president's direction will likely require (and should require), a move by Obama in Boehner's direction.

It would be easy enough for Boehner to demand so much reduction in entitlement programs that the president will not go along.

Indeed, if Boehner makes incremental steps from no tax hikes to tax hikes on $1,000,000 or more, to tax hikes on $750,000 or more to tax hikes on $500,000 or more ... then if Obama rejects the offer, Republicans can rightfully pin this on the president.

That is the game in play at the moment. If Boehner plays the game properly, Republicans can either get a reasonable deal, or avoid the blame if the whole thing collapses.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : The short head, the long tail and buying expensive scaffolding

The short head, the long tail and buying expensive scaffolding

Hits are more valuable than ever, mostly because they're more rare than ever.

The Zipf Distribution, also described in Chris Anderson's Long Tail, helps us understand just how valuable hits can be.

A bestselling book/record/movie/consultant/tech startup might make a thousand times more profit than one that's only seventy or eighty rungs lower on the bestseller list.

Simple example: In 2010, Toy Story 3 took in more than $400,000,000 at the US box office, turning a profit of more than a quarter of a billion dollars, while just about every one of the thousand movies below #80 on the list lost money.

While this makes it clear that there's a huge reward to being seen as the one, the best in your field, the current sensation, it also gives us a chance to wonder about how important it is to invest in dressing up your work with the trappings of the inevitable winner. Not for nothing did Toy Story 3 sell more tickets in the first 48 hours than just about any other movie did over its entire run... that's the result of expectation, distribution and marketing, not just in being good.

Shawn Coyne shows us how some of this math works in book publishing. Having the biggest book of the year translated into enough profits for Random House to not only pay for bonuses for everyone, but to bank millions more. We can all agree (I hope) that 50 Shades isn't the best book published this decade, but it's certainly one of the biggest.

The question (sorry it took so long to get here) is this: how much should the author have invested in creating an environment where this was more likely to happen? Shawn argues that she gave up a fortune by selling the ebook rights cheap in order to get a big bookstore push. Which is true. But, and it's a huge but, did the imprimatur of a huge publishing house help her avoid the chasm of being merely popular? Did the bookstore distribution and hype and media attention provide the magic that made her book tip?

Every industry is filled with agents, marketers, promoters, retailers and associations that promise just that--the little bit of magic, the last bit of straw, the finger on the scale that will turn a good product into the biggest hit ever. That celebrity endorsement or joint marketing venture might just work... This scaffolding is expensive, but worth every penny when it works.

Here's the error and the challenge:

The error is in thinking that once you figure out how to pay for the scaffolding, you're sure to cross the chasm to hitsville. This is easily disproven by glancing at just how many non-wins were published by Random House, represented by CAA or given shelf space at Walmart. There may be some causation, but there's also a lot of credit-grabbing correlation going on as well. (And yes, credit to publishers who take chances and pay money and support authors when they need it most...)

The challenge is in investing enough in the scaffolding of expectation and distribution that you don't damage your chances at the same time you keep overhead low enough to profit even when you don't make the top 100. Which, given the odds, is more likely than not.

Today, it's easier than ever to put your work into the world. Easier to have a blog, to share your technology, to sing your songs, to connect, with no middlemen. So, the question is: how much should you give away/pay for the scaffolding that promises to take you over the hump to the other side of the tail?

The magic of the long tail is that it's open to everyone. The danger in overinvesting in the hype machine and the turboboost of outbound marketing is that it may just distract you from what actually creates viral videos, hit books and freelancers in high demand: genuine excitement from a core group that won't rest until they tell their friends.

My take is that the benefit for winner-take-most markets is that anything you can do that realistically increases your chances of being the winner is a smart move--unless (double emphasis intended) the cost decreases your opportunity to do it again soon, or the compromises you're required to make undermine the very excitement you're trying to create.

No obvious answer, no map. Asking the question is the essential first step in finding a path.