Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Unwilling and Unable! Washington State Rejects Obama’s Proposal to Extend Canceled Policies
- India Gold Premium Hits Record 21.6%
- Scranton Unlikely to Make Required Pension Contribution; Mish Proposal: Offer the Union 35 Cents On the Dollar
- Obama Changes His Mind (But Only For a Year); You Can Keep Your Plan IF Insurer Reinstates It; Democrats Revolt; Four Questions
- French Recovery Fizzles, Germany Slows; OECD Warns France on Reforms
Unwilling and Unable! Washington State Rejects Obama’s Proposal to Extend Canceled Policies Posted: 14 Nov 2013 10:04 PM PST It did not take long for Obama's proposal as detailed in Obama Changes His Mind (But Only For a Year); You Can Keep Your Plan IF Insurers Reinstate Them to blow sky high. Two hours, to be precise. Washington State Rejects Obama's Proposal The Seattle Times reports State insurance commissioner rejects Obama's proposal to extend canceled policies. State Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler has rejected President Obama's proposal to allow insurance companies to extend health insurance policies for people who have received notices that their policies will be cancelled at the end of the year.Unwilling and Unable! I found out about the above rejection from a Washington State Actuary who writes ... Hello MishYesterday's Recap Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Mark Udall (D-Colo.) introduced plans that would let people keep their plans even IF insurers cancel them.An Answer and a New Question It appears we have some answers. Even IF insurers want to extend their plans (which most won't for reasons stated by WSA), they may be unable due to time constraints, state regulations, or state mandates. This raises another question: Shouldn't Obama or his team have known this? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
India Gold Premium Hits Record 21.6% Posted: 14 Nov 2013 05:23 PM PST With India's 10% gold import duty on top of other capital controls, the price one has to pay for gold in India has reached a record spread of 21.6% vs. what one has to pay in countries where there are no such controls or import duties. My friend Nick at Sharelynx Gold pinged me earlier today with a chart that shows the premium one has to pay to buy gold in India. click on chart for sharper image If there was little demand for gold in India, the premium would be much smaller. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 14 Nov 2013 12:12 PM PST It is really disheartening to watch Scranton public officials make matters worse for city taxpayers. I spoke about Scranton a couple days ago in Moody's Warns of Scranton Bankruptcy; Fitch Downgrades Chicago Citing Pension Problems; Liberal Fantasyland. Here is a synopsis of the details.
Unsolvable Mess That is an unsolvable mess, except by shedding pension and other obligations in bankruptcy. Meanwhile, the problem just got worse (how could it not), and city officials still do not see the light. City Unlikely to Make Required Payment to Pension Fund The Times-Tribue reports Scranton Unlikely to Make Required Payment to Pension Fund. It's unlikely Scranton will make the required $6.3 million contribution to its pension plans by the end of the year, meaning city taxpayers will have to pay an additional $504,000 in interest into the composite pension fund.Union Arrogance Note the disgusting arrogance of union solicitor Larry Durkin who demands "pension debts be paid first". I suggest the first and foremost obligation of the city is health and safety of its citizens, not the union pension plan. I am delighted the city was unable to borrow money to meet the obligation. Bond buyers stupid enough to buy Scranton bonds, deserve one hell of a haircut in bankruptcy court. Head in the Sand Approach My comment on Tuesday was "It is truly pathetic watching politicians flop like fish out of water trying to prevent something that was clearly inevitable long ago." Union arrogance coupled with head-in-the-sand denial by city officials is seldom a good mix for taxpayers. Board member John Hazzouri requested the city alter its mix of investments from a 60-40 mix of bonds and stock, to a 50-50 mix. "Mr. Hazzouri made the suggestion in hopes of increasing investment performance." Fortunately, the city did not go along. A Few Pertinent Facts
Concerns Board members are concerned about a financial hit the fund will take based on the back pay award for police and firefighters. The award will affect the pension because retirees are entitled to a portion of all pay increases. The amount owed to retirees has not yet been calculated, but it is expected to be at least several million dollars, Mr. Durkin said.Obvious Solution The obvious solution is to tell Durkin "go to hell" (politely of course). The polite way is to file bankruptcy, then not pay another dime to the pension plan. Then the city can sit down with the union, and work out a plan based on simple math. Simple Math
Generous Offer The city should offer the union 35 cents on the dollar. That would be a generous offer given the plan only has assets of 30.5 cents on the dollar. In fact, 35 cents on the dollar may be extremely generous depending on plan rate-of-return assumptions. No doubt the city is worried bankruptcy would destroy its credit rating. So what? The solution is for Scranton to live within its means and not spend more (or make more promises) than collections allow. If the city does that, its credit rating would quickly improve. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 14 Nov 2013 10:17 AM PST With pressure from Democrats, Obama has relented. He again says you can keep your plan. This time he really means it, but only for a year, and only if the insurer is willing to bring the plan back. Politico has the details in Obamacare Fix: Keep Plans President Barack Obama offered a proposal Thursday aimed at making it easier for Americans whose health insurance plans were slated to be cancelled at the end of the year keep the same coverage through 2014.Democrats Revolt The revolt, by Democrats, shows just how badly house speaker John Boehner blew it during the budget negotiations. Common sense shows all Republicans had to do was sit back and wait for Democrats to bitch about Obamacare problems. In the House, it will be interesting to see how many Democrats vote for the Upton provision allowing insurers to offer allegedly substandard programs to new customers. And in the Senate, things look even worse for Obama. Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) and Mark Udall (D-Colo.) introduced plans that would let people keep their plans even IF insurers cancel them. My first set of questions are simple: How the hell is that going to work? Is government going to take over every existing plan that was dropped? Still More Questions While pondering the above questions, I have a few more to throw at you, this time assuming Obama gets his fix and "you can keep your plan" but only for a year, and only if the insurer reinstates it. Will insurers bother? For a year? Why? What incentives do they have? Bonus Questions Has anyone (on either side of the aisle) thought about how their alleged fix was going to work in real life? What constitutional right does Obama have to unilaterally change the law of the land, even if it's "only" for a year? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
French Recovery Fizzles, Germany Slows; OECD Warns France on Reforms Posted: 14 Nov 2013 12:45 AM PST The Yahoo!Finance headline states French recovery fizzles, German growth slows. I am wondering "what recovery was that?" Others might be wondering "since when does one quarter of growth constitutive a recovery?" Those are reasonable questions, so let's take a look at details of the stalled "recovery". The French economy contracted by 0.1 percent, snuffing out signs of revival from robust growth in the previous three months. It had been expected to post quarterly growth of 0.1 percent and has now shrunk in three of the last four quarters.OECD issues warning on French economy To understand why the French economy is not going anywhere, just take a look at Hollande's policies. For further clues, please consider OECD issues warning on French economy. France is lagging behind other European countries in reforming its economy and needs to take comprehensive steps to restore its competitiveness, a stark report from the OECD, the club of rich countries, has warned.The Financial Times says "the 87-page report sent a clear message to President François Hollande's Socialist government that it has not done enough to overhaul Europe's second-largest economy." I suggest warning French socialists about needed economic reforms is about as useful as warning rocks about mosquitoes. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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