Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- No Progress for Long-Term Unemployed; Ten Reasons the Problem is Structural
- McCain Proposes Military Aid to Al Qaeda; Mideast Map of Who Supports Who
- Warmongers Unite (As They Always Do); Boehner Caves In, Backs War; McCain Caught Playing iPhone Poker During Syria Hearing
No Progress for Long-Term Unemployed; Ten Reasons the Problem is Structural Posted: 04 Sep 2013 06:51 PM PDT In Long-Term Jobless Left Out of the Recovery, the Wall Street Journal notes that Despite Improving Economy, Prospects Are Bleak for Millions of Unemployed. More than four years after the recession officially ended, 11.5 million Americans are unemployed, many of them for years. Millions more have abandoned their job searches, hiding from the economic storm in school or turning to government programs for support. A growing body of economic research suggests that the longer they remain on the sidelines, the less likely they will be to work again; for many, it may already be too late.What is Happening vs. Why The Wall Street Journal did a good job explaining "what" is happening. The Journal failed to explore "why" this is happening. I will address the key question in a moment. First consider a few more charts. Those Not In The Labor Force Who Want A Job Those who want a job but don't have a job total 6,619,000. That is an increase of about 2.2 million from the pre-recession low. Factor the "marginally attached" (those who want a job and do not have one, but did not look) and the unemployment rate is 8.8%. Marginally Attached Unemployment Rate - U5 Factor in "Involuntary Part-Time employment" (U6) and the rate is 14.0% U6 Unemployment Taking into consideration millions of additional part-time jobs created as a direct result of Obamacare lowering the number of hours part-timers worked even further, and the base unemployment rate as well as the U5 rate would both be higher. I suspect the U-5 rate would be between 9.5 and 10%. Cyclical or Structural? Regardless of what the unemployment rate is, here is the key question: Is the problem cyclical or structural? The Fed thinks unemployment is a cyclical problem. I don't. Ten Reasons the Problem is Structural
It will takes years, if not a decade, to sort out those issues. In the meantime central bankers around the world further distort the global economy for the benefit of banks and those with first access to money. Inflation Benefits Those With First Access to Money For an explanation of how Fed policies benefit the banks and the top 1% at the expense of everyone else, please see Reader Asks Me to Prove "Inflation Benefits the Wealthy" (At the Expense of Everyone Else). Wonderland Economics Compounding the problem is a massive hoard of economic illiterates who promote inflation as the answer. For a case-in-point, please see DeLong-in-Wonderland. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
McCain Proposes Military Aid to Al Qaeda; Mideast Map of Who Supports Who Posted: 04 Sep 2013 11:00 AM PDT Inquiring minds are looking a Map of the Mideast that details who backs who in the Syrian Civil War. Map of countries surrounding Syria (red) with military involvement.
This is pretty messy with factions in Iraq on both sides of the issue. Who Gains From Using Chemical Weapons? Assad had the most to lose by using chemical weapons. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar have the most to gain, especially if chemical use was attributed to Syria (not the rebels). As noted in Warmongers Unite (As They Always Do), Syrians In Ghouta Claim Saudi-Supplied Rebels Behind Chemical Attack. Here are some additional links.
John Kerry says US tests prove sarin used in Syria attacks Kerry never answered the question "By Whom?" Who Are The Rebels? Just who are the rebels seeking to overthrow Assad? Wikipedia has the answer in Foreign rebel fighters in the Syrian civil war There have been a number of foreign fighters that have joined the Syrian civil war in opposition to Assad. While some are jihadists, others, such as Mahdi al-Harati, have joined to help the Syrian revolution.[59] Some fighters have come from as far away as Chechnya and Tajikistan.[60] Another group, the Al-Nusra Front, is headed by Abu Muhammad al-Julani[61] The group includes some of the rebellion's most battle-hardened and effective fighters. However, U.S. has formally designated the Al Nusra Front as a foreign terrorist organization. "Extremist groups like Jabhat al-Nusra are a problem, an obstacle to finding the political solution that Syria's going to need," said the American ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford.[62]McCain Says "Arm the Rebels" Bloomberg reports McCain Balks on Syria Measure Absent More Rebel Support McCain, opposing the resolution in its current form, will seek changes to include provisions for arming Syrian rebels and assurances that military strikes would be able to deter further Syrian use of chemical weapons, according to an aide who asked not to be named because he wasn't authorized to speak publicly.Military Aid to Al Qaeda, Al Nusra McCain wants to arm the rebels, but if we arm the rebels, we arm Al Qaeda, Al Nusra, and other foreign terrorist organizations. It's as simple as that. Warmongers like McCain do not care about such things. They just want war. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
Posted: 04 Sep 2013 12:20 AM PDT In a completely expected yet disappointing moment, a wide range of Democrat and Republican fools have united in support of war. It's hard to know precisely where to begin with this wrap-up as there is rampant stupidity on both sides of the political aisle but let's start with a preposterous statement by Secretary of State John Kerry who said Congress Faces 'Munich Moment'. Secretary of State John Kerry told House Democrats during a Monday conference call that they face a "Munich moment" as they weigh whether to approve striking Syria to punish Syrian President Bashar Assad for using chemical weapons, two sources with knowledge of the call told NBC News.Kerry's Preposterous Comparison Five Simple Facts
Rush to War In this mad dash to war please note that John Kerry says US tests prove sarin used in Syria attacks John Kerry, the US secretary of state, on Sunday strengthened the case for military action against Bashar al-Assad's regime after announcing that tests conducted on gas attacks in Syria had proved positive for the nerve agent sarin. Sarin Used? By Whom? Let's assume that sarin was used. Not once did Kerry say who was responsible. So who was responsible? Please consider Syrians In Ghouta Claim Saudi-Supplied Rebels Behind Chemical Attack As the machinery for a U.S.-led military intervention in Syria gathers pace following last week's chemical weapons attack, the U.S. and its allies may be targeting the wrong culprit.Propaganda On Both Sides Given the propaganda on both sides, it is arguable as to whether the above story is true or not. Regardless, the story is plausible. More importantly, precisely what business is it of the US to rush to war over uncertain facts? Is poison gas really any worse than tens of thousands killed in African slaughters by machetes and other means? To those who died, what difference does it make? The Difference Is Oil The US is in Syria for two reasons.
Were it not for oil, the warmongers probably would not have succeeded in this case. Oil is the only real difference between this case and numerous slaughters in Africa in which the US stood by and did nothing. Boehner Caves In As totally expected by any rational thinking person (especially in light of Boehner caving in to the whims of Obama on numerous budget issues) Boehner's Aboard: Obama Gains Syria-Strike Support President Barack Obama gained ground Tuesday in his drive for congressional backing of a military strike against Syria, winning critical support from House Speaker John Boehner while key Senate Democrats and Republicans agreed to back a no-combat-troops-on-the-ground action in retaliation for a chemical weapons attack.Warmonger McCain Leads the Charge On September 2, McCain said Congress Must Support Obama on Syria Action Republican Senator John McCain said Congress must back taking action against Syria and that a failure of lawmakers to act would be "catastrophic" for U.S. interests in the region. Catastrophic? How? Why? Is Syria a threat to the US? If so, in what way? McCain Caught Playing iPhone Poker During Syria Hearing Syria is so much a threat that McCain Was Caught Playing iPhone Poker During Syria Hearing As the hearing continues, our ace photographer Melina Mara reports she spotted Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) "passing the time by playing poker on his iPhone during the hearing." Warmonger McCain attempted to make light of the issue with a ridiculous tweet: "Scandal! Caught playing iPhone game at 3+ hour Senate hearing - worst of all I lost!" McCain Scandal Yes senator, this is a scandal. If you were a Democrat, Fox news would be trumpeting the story for days if not weeks. McCain learned nothing from his six years in captivity in one of the stupidest wars in history. And because of his captivity, he is the ideal spokesman for the defense industry warmongers. Who better than McCain to fire the often heard charge "weak on defense" McCain Fake Patriot McCain is the gold medal winner in the "fake patriotism" contest. Getting shot down in a war that the US should not have been involved with in the first place does not make one a hero. Squandering taxpayer money in other senseless wars does not make one a hero either. The simple facts of the matter are: this is another mad rush to war, on trumped-up evidence, for no good reason even IF the evidence as portrayed was correct. Yet, here we go again, in another mad dash to war, this time with Obama siding with war-mongering McCain, and Boehner caving in to Obama (as he always does, on every issue). Recall that Hillary Clinton caved in to Bush (and likely lost the nomination to Obama because she would not admit an error). What if Romney Won? Would things be any different if Mitt Romney won the election? Given the Democrat strangle hold on the Senate, it is 100% certain that Obamacare would not have been repealed. Most legislation in Congress would not have been any different. The biggest difference under Romney, is that we would probably be in a trade war with China and a real war with Iran. Would that be better? If you conclude war was likely no matter who won, you conclude correctly. If you sense I am disgusted with both political parties, you sense correctly. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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