Central Perk: 23 iun. 2015

marți, 23 iunie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Posted: 23 Jun 2015 10:04 AM PDT

Greetings from beautiful Iceland!

Liz and I are taking 17 days to circle the ring road. We are also taking many side excursions. This is day 6 of 17. We are currently in Borgarfjordur Eystri in the East section of Iceland.

I have some phenomenal images to share, but currently they are in "raw" format. I will post some after we return.

Google Ads Follow You Wherever You Go

Google knows we golf. This ad popped up just now while writing this post.

Here is another ad I captured.

The above ad extols the virtues of duty free shopping.

I Will Follow Him

In honor of Google knowing who you are, what you do, and where you are every moment of your "connected" life, I offer the following musical tribute.

Link if video does not play: I Will Follow Him, a number one hit form 1963 by Little Peggy March.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Durable Goods Orders Plunge in May, Huge Downward Revisions in April

Posted: 23 Jun 2015 09:34 AM PDT

In the durable goods May forecast, the Bloomberg Consensus Economist's Estimate was well off the mark.

The consensus estimate was -0.6% with the actual number a dismal -1.8%, but heavily skewed by a drop in aircraft orders.

The economists had the negative sign correct, but given the huge downward revision from -0.5% to -1.5% for April, they really missed the mark by a mile.

Big downward revisions to April data almost sink the latest durable goods report where, however, important details show some life. Total orders sank 1.8 percent in May but this is badly skewed by a 49 percent drop in aircraft orders where outsized month-to-month swings are the norm. The April revision is the big surprise here, now at minus 1.5 from an initial minus 0.5 percent in an unwelcome reminder of how volatile this series is.

Stripping out transportation, which is where aircraft is tracked, shows strength in the month at plus 0.5 percent which hits the Econoday consensus. But here again, the April revision swings in and takes an initial 0.5 percent gain to minus 0.3 percent.

The key area, however, that remains on the positive side is capital goods where new orders excluding aircraft rose 0.4 percent in May vs a 0.3 percent slip in April which was initially posted at plus 1.0 percent. Shipments for this reading, in what is a plus for second-quarter GDP, show back-to-back gains of 0.3 percent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Amazingly Unique Jewelry

Posted: 23 Jun 2015 10:41 AM PDT

Would you like to know What Your Jewelry Preference Says About You? This is some truly unique jewelry. It is handmade by an independent design studio that specializes in urban jewelry in Brooklyn, New York. The jewelry is elegant and magnificently crafted.