Central Perk: 30 iul. 2012

luni, 30 iulie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Shades of 2006: That's What Australia Housing Bubble Looks Like From US Perspective
Eurozone Retail Sales Sink 9th Month; 17th Month of Contraction in Italy; Margins Collapse in France; Germany Barely Above Contraction
51% of Germans Believe Germany Better Off Outside Eurozone, 71% Favor Greece Leaving; Implications on Constitutional Court Ruling

Shades of 2006: That's What Australia Housing Bubble Looks Like From US Perspective

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 08:33 PM PDT

The Australia housing market did not bust when it should of and the delay is going to be painful. The bigger the bubble, the bigger the crash, and the Australia bubble is bigger than we saw in the US.

On a timeline basis, Australia is about where the US was in 2006, essentially a state of denial.

Developers are offering massive incentives such as cars, furniture, and vacations to move homes while chanting the ever-popular "now is a great time to buy a house" mantra.

Gifts Galore

The Age reports Gifts galore boost flagging unit sales

Developers are slashing apartment prices and handing out tens of thousands of dollars in incentives - including rebates, cars, furniture and holidays - to lure buyers into Melbourne's new-unit market.

While many industry players say the offers are good news for buyers, others worry that the discounting could fuel a "race to the bottom" that could harm property values.

"There's no question there are a lot of apartments under construction, so everyone's trying to attract attention to get people to inquire about theirs," said Robert Pradolin, general manager at developer Australand.

"It's probably a very good time to buy because there are a lot of incentives around, but buyers still need to be really careful that they are picking a place based on its location, quality and who the developer is."

In one case, Maxx Apartments announced a "massive St Kilda apartments sale" in a series of large advertisements. The promotion saw $121,000 cut from the cost of a two-bedroom flat and the price of a $415,000 one-bedroom unit reduced by 18 per cent.

Late last year, a $65,000 Mercedes was offered to the first buyer of one of four luxury apartments that remained unsold in a Brighton development. Rubicon Pacific used the teaser despite already dropping prices by $150,000 to $200,000 on apartments first listed at up to $1.3 million.

Other developers have followed suit, launching campaigns that provided $5000 to $20,000 rebates on top of the $13,000 available to first home buyers before July 1. Some have tried to lure investors with offers of guaranteed rental income for up to five years.

Agency Castran Gilbert said the offer of a holiday for two to Palm Cove for buyers in the Brunswick West development Portez led to a 50 per cent spike in inquiries.

No Auction Bidders

Similar to the US condo bust in which bidders vanished overnight, The Age notes Empty auctions: 'op shop' listings

What if you put your house up for auction but nobody turned up? Not even the neighbours for a stickybeak?

Well, that happened at the weekend, with agents from Hocking Stuart and Buxton real estate left standing alone in the pouring rain.

Auctioneers put their hammers away for two houses in Elwood, with the owners deciding to cancel at the last minute due to no interest at all. In all, eight auctions were put off.

Inner west agent Craig Stephens, managing director Jas H Stephens, said it was "rare to have no one rock up" to an auction, but he has noticed an increasing number of buyers waiting to negotiate after auction.

"It's definitely a buyers market at the moment and those buyers are being a bit fickle," he said. "But good houses in good streets still sell and some property is being sold one or two weeks after auction."

He said many vendors were holding off, with a pick up in listings for auctions in late September and early October. "It looks as though there could be a pick up in supply in the second half of the year," he said.

Hocking Stuart agent David Sullivan said the owner of its property that had zero attendees did not want to comment. Buxton did not return calls.

This is how downturns major start: price wars, incentives, and still no bidders. Give that it's only 2006, Australia has a long way to the bottom.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Eurozone Retail Sales Sink 9th Month; 17th Month of Contraction in Italy; Margins Collapse in France; Germany Barely Above Contraction

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 11:18 AM PDT

Eurozone retail sales continue to dive and not even Germany is immune. German manufacturing has been in contraction off-and-on, and retail sales are once again on the verge contraction as well.

Let's take a look at some reports.

Italy Retail Sales Slump Extends to 17th Month

Markit reports Downturn in retail sales continues in July

Summary:

July data pointed to a further reduction in activity in the Italian retail sector, with sales down markedly both on the month and compared with levels one year ago. The rates of decline in employment, purchasing activity and inventories all accelerated, while profitability continued to deteriorate sharply. Cost pressures, however, eased to the weakest in 20 months amid stronger competition between suppliers.

The downturn in Italy's retail sector extended to a seventeenth month in July. Furthermore, the rate of contraction in like-for-like sales accelerated from the previous month and was marked. This was signalled by the seasonally adjusted Italian Retail PMI® posting 40.7, down from 41.7 in June.

Italian retailers generally fell short of their targets set for July.

Employment levels continued to fall during July, extending the ongoing sequence of contraction to 55 months. Moreover, after slowing to the weakest in eight months during the preceding survey period, the rate of job shedding accelerated and was
marked overall.

Sales Fall Sharply in France

Markit France PMI shows Record Drop in Retail Margins

French retailers encountered another tough month in July. Sales fell at a sharper rate on both a monthly and an annual basis, while margins were squeezed to the greatest extent in the survey history. The pace of job shedding accelerated [fastest rate in nearly three years], while retailers scaled back their purchasing of goods and lowered their inventories.

The headline Retail PMI® remained below the 50.0 no-change mark for a fourth successive month in July. At 46.7, down from 48.9 in June, the index signalled an acceleration in the monthly rate of decline in sales.

Gross margins in the French retail sector continued to decline in July. Moreover, the latest fall was the sharpest in the history of the survey. Panellists indicated that margins were squeezed by the need to engage in substantial discounting and promotional activity in the face of an increasingly competitive trading environment.

German Retail Sales on Verge of Contraction

Markit reports German Retail PMI hits three-month low during July

The recent rebound in German retail sales faded in July, with like-for-like sales rising only marginally since the previous month. At 50.3, down from 52.4 in June, the seasonally adjusted Germany Retail PMI signalled the slowest expansion in the current three-month period of growth.

German retailers indicated that their actual sales fell short of their initial plans in July, and by the greatest margin since January. Anecdotal evidence mainly cited weaker than anticipated underlying consumer demand. July data indicated that retailers are downbeat about their prospects for reaching sales targets in one month's time. The degree of negative sentiment was the most marked since that recorded in December 2009.

Eurozone Retail Sales Sink 9th Month

Markit reports Eurozone retail sales fall for ninth month running in July

Key points:

Revenue downturn continues at faster rate
Near-record drop in gross margins
Wholesale price inflation strengthens

Eurozone retail sales fell on an annual basis for the fourteenth successive month in July. The rate of contraction was little-changed from June's sharp pace, and much faster than the long-run average for the survey. Sales fell rapidly in Italy, extending the current sequence of decline to two-and-a-half years. France also posted a steep fall, the fifth in successive months. Sales were up compared with a year earlier in Germany, and at the fastest rate since March.

Retailers cut back on staffing in July. The current period of job shedding now stretches to four months, and the rate of reduction accelerated to a 32-month record. French and Italian retailers reduced their workforces on average, with the steeper decline posted among the latter. Italian retailers have shed staff every month since January 2008. In contrast, German retailers raised headcounts for the twenty-sixth successive month.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

51% of Germans Believe Germany Better Off Outside Eurozone, 71% Favor Greece Leaving; Implications on Constitutional Court Ruling

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 07:34 AM PDT

A recent poll says 51 percent of Germans now believe Germany would be better off without the euro.

The Emnid poll for the Bild am Sonntag mass circulation weekly showed 51pc of Germans believed Europe's top economy would be better outside the 17-country eurozone. Twenty-nine percent said it would be worse off, AFP reports.

The survey also showed that 71pc of Germans wanted Greece to leave the euro if it did not live up to its austerity promises.

Economy Minister Philipp Roesler told Bild am Sonntag there were "considerable doubts whether Greece is living up to its reform promises."

Implications on Constitutional Court Ruling

That poll, with only 29% believeing the euro is a good thing, suggests that if the German constitutional court forced Merkel to put the euro to a referendum, that Germany would vote to leave the eurozone.

On September 12, the German constitution court is expected to rule on the ESM as well as the fiscal treaty chancellor Angela Merkel signed in March.

Is it any wonder ECB president Mario Draghi is loathe to do anything but talk before the court meets?

Should the court rule both are OK, eurocrats like Jean-Claude Juncker will immediately seek to change what the ESM can do, including the use of leverage.

Let Voters Decide

Given that Germany is better off outside the eurozone, and the eurozone is arguably better off without Germany, hopefully, the constitutional court will say it's time to put all of this to voters, including whether Germany should stay in the eurozone.

Unfortunately, I expect the court will OK both the ESM and the Merkozy treaty, but give further warnings to Merkel and the ECB that 500 million euros is the limit.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

Iconic Olympic Buildings [Infographic]

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 02:15 PM PDT

Hosting the Olympics leaves a number of marks on a city, but perhaps none so obvious as the enormous stadiums that house the games. Archdaily takes a look at interesting past olympic buildings and how they are being used today.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Internal Linking Strategies for 2012 and Beyond

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 07:49 PM PDT

Posted by dohertyjf

Last Friday, I did a Whiteboard Friday called "Smarter Internal Linking." If you have not yet watched it (I do show some graphs and stuff, so you'll probably need to watch and not just listen), I'd recommend doing so first before reading the rest of this post.

The goal of this post is to clear up a few misconceptions that I saw in the comments, and to show you exactly what I mean about sitewides that could be problematic both now and in the near future for over-optimization algorithms and filters.

Footer Links Are Not (Inherently) Bad

One question I saw a few times was about if we should use sitewide footers at all. My answer to this is "absolutely!" Footer links can be awesome for the user experience. Especially in the growing world of mobile surfing of the Internet, there is an increasing need for good navigation at the bottom of websites that allows users to navigate to a place on the site that makes sense, without necessitating scrolling back to the top of the page.

Footer links like SEOmoz's are fine, as they point people to the most important and useful pages on the website. People expect to see them there:

Zappos does this as well, though interestingly they do not have the same footer on the homepage as they do on their category pages (take a look at the homepage and this category to see the difference). They are not overloading you with anchor text and taking you to irrelevant pages from every page, though. Their main footer is large, yes, but contains useful links for the user.

And according to SearchMetrics, their SERP coverage is up and to the right -

The Problem is Scale

Footers like these become an issue when they are scaled out across a full website and also into microsites. This is a common practice for large sites, especially in the travel/hotels/tourism industries.

If this is a normal webpage -

This is an example of a homepage from a major hotels chain -

The architecture looks like this, which is a completely standard architecture -

But if you scale this out to a sitewide section, such as in the hotels site above, then every page becomes like a homepage linking with optimized anchor text. And often these links are irrelevant and don't add value to the user.

Here is an example of interlinking gone crazy -

Microsites/Franchises Can Be Dangerous

I recently came across a site that also has many third-party franchise sites. Each of these sites is built off a template (which is not necessarily an issue) and provides local content specific to the area where the franchise is located. Each of the sites, in my opinion, adds value to the user.

Here is an example layout of those sites, with the problem area (in my opinion) highlighted -

When you take this out to scale, the linking between the sites (and all of the links shown in the microsite example are sitewide) begins to look thus:

Think Taxonomy

The best way to steer clear of these over-linking issues that could and probably will get you into trouble, is to categorize your pages. Inside Distilled, we often talk about these categories as "page types", but basically we're talking about the different levels of the pages on your site. Some examples are:

Homepage (a category in and of itself);
Category pages;
Product pages;
Product detail pages;
PPC landing pages;
Blog posts.

One thought as to how to improve your internal linking, but in an algorithm-update-friendly way, is to interlink between the different levels in ways that make sense. The ultimate best answer would be to create an internal linking schema or algorithm that allows you to link to these pages automatically depending on how you best decide the pages fit.

You'll end up now with linking that looks thus, with all of the pages pointing in being pages in the same geographical category:

Parallel Internal Linking

As I said in the video, it doesn't make sense to link to all of your important category pages from every other category page, as this is bad from a user perspective. If someone is looking for a Washington DC hotel, they're not interested in seeing London hotels probably. If someone is looking for London hotels, they are probably not interested in Orlando hotels, but they might be interested in Paris or Munich hotels.

Now we need to figure out how to segment. To categorize this specific site, I'd use the following taxonomy:

Continent;
Country;
City;
State (if US and applicable);
Category or hotel

Then, pattern match the continents, then countries, then cities. If we do this, then your London hotels page could like this way, with links in the sidebar to Paris, Munich, Amsterdam, etc and not links to Orlando and Atlanta -

ccTLD Internal Linking

A tip that I gave in the video is to link between your relevant pages on your ccTLDs (.co.uk, .fr, etc) to the relevant page on the other TLDs. Using this methodology, we end up with the following structure and linking patterns instead of the craziness seen above:

How Do I Test This?

As with any blog post you read, you should take the advice with a grain or two of salt. I don't care who writes it, you need to do your own testing and competitor research to find out what is working and then how you can stay competitive while also not putting your website in danger.

Do Your Competitor Research

I found the principles talked about here by doing a deep dive into how competitors are getting their rankings (this is one factor of many). I found how they are linking and compared that against their traffic to see how it is trending.

You need to do the same. I recommend starting off with your most competitive term and reverse-engineering their strategies, looking specifically at external links, internal links, and content. You might find that you are being beaten because they have superior useful content. Or maybe you'll find that their internal linking is better, and you can learn from their strategies.

Work With Your UX Team or Developer

Now, depending on the size of your company, you might have a dedicated UX team. If you're working on the scale that I am talking about here, you need to have a UX team, even. Get them to help you categorize your pages and levels, and then work with them to create mockups using a tool like Balsamiq (the tool I used for the illustrations here).

Start off NoFollowing Links instead of Removing

Some people in the comments on the Whiteboard Friday recommended starting to test this by nofollowing your excessive internal linking instead of removing links. I think this is a good place to start, on a small sample of your pages, so that you can test the potential gains or losses experienced through these strategies.

Ultimately though, if these strategies work for you, then you will want to create new page layouts so that your categorization can help you effectively interlink. Slapping a no-follow on these links is only a band-aid, as we are also concerned about conversions and not just rankings.

I hope this helps to clarify some of the points I was making in the video. If you have more questions (and I hope you do now), please leave them in the comments!

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Photo: Not Your Usual Olympic Event

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, July 30, 2012

Photo: Not Your Usual Olympic Event

This past week, First Lady Michelle Obama traveled to London as the head of the Presidential delegation. The First Lady met with American athletes, hosted 2,000 American military kids at Let's Move! London, and helped cheer on Team USA at the opening ceremony.

Check out a special photo gallery from the First Lady's trip to London:

First Lady Michelle Obama is picked up by U.S. Olympic wrestler Elena Pirozhkova during a greet with Team USA Olympic athletes competing in the 2012 Summer Olympic Games, at the U.S. Olympic Training Facility at University of East London in London, England, July 27, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Sonya N. Hebert)

Seth's Blog : The theater of the mind

The theater of the mind

The most effective marketing story isn't the one you tell to someone in your audience, it's the one the person tells himself.

Consider this no parking sign. Instead of stating the fine, the signmaker states the range of the fine. At this point, it's up to the observer to have a conversation with himself. "Well, maybe I'll just get a $50 fine. Hmmm, why would that happen? With my luck, it'll be the maximum... I'll just park somewhere else."

It's not an announcement, it's an invitation to a little internal drama.

Too often, we don't give people a chance to fill in the blanks.