Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Avalanche of "Bids Wanted" for Munis, but "Nobody’s bidding"
- Video: Fire bombs, Stones Fly in Greek Riots; All Flights to/from Athens Cancelled
- Obama Gives Legislature Perfect Reason to NOT Pass Compromise Tax Bill: Says it would "End His Presidency"
- Jerry Brown: "We've Been Living in Fantasy Land. Budget Much Worse Than I Thought. I'm Shocked."; Cuts Coming, Expect Union Fearmongering
- Interactive Map Showing Where $130 Billion in Earmarks Went, by State, District, and Politician
- PIGS Exposure Table, Explaining the Panic by Numbers; Credit Warning in Spain, Belguim; Piecemeal Proposals Doomed
Avalanche of "Bids Wanted" for Munis, but "Nobody’s bidding" Posted: 15 Dec 2010 10:34 PM PST The municipal bond market is going up in smoke once again with yields highest since August 2009. An "avalanche" of supply is coming, with few takers. Bloomberg reports 'Avalanche' of Sales Drives Rates to 16-Month High Yields on top-rated tax-exempt securities due in 30 years climbed twice as fast as those on U.S. Treasuries, reaching the highest level in almost 16 months.I am strongly opposed to BABs because the last thing we need right now is a government takeover of the municipal bond market. Taxpayers are already on the hook for hundreds of billions of dollars of Fannie and Freddie debt. We do not need taxpayers on the hook for trillions in municipal debt. For more details on the need to stop BABs and how you can help, please see Time to Kill Build America Bonds (BABs). For more details on the muni massacre, please see Bloodbath in Muni Bond Funds; Reasons for the Muni Selloff; Will it Continue? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Video: Fire bombs, Stones Fly in Greek Riots; All Flights to/from Athens Cancelled Posted: 15 Dec 2010 04:53 PM PST If you had plans to take a holiday in Greece, my advice would be to switch those plans. The following video is much more violent than protests we have seen in the past. Strikers Halt Flights, Buses Bloomberg reports Greek Strikers Halt Flights, Buses as Bailout Bites Greek unions grounded flights, kept ferries docked at ports and shut down public services today to protest wage cuts as the government sticks to conditions of an international bailout. Protesters clashed with police in Athens.Anyone who think Greece will pay back all of its debt obligations is not thinking clearly. The same applies to Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 15 Dec 2010 04:06 PM PST Here's a welcome choice: Obama tells lawmakers not passing tax deal could end presidency. In urging lawmakers to vote for his tax deal, President Obama is using one of his go-to lines from the healthcare debate, according to a Democratic lawmaker.Stalling the liberal agenda for decades is just what we need. Now, if Obama would just pledge to resign if the bill did not pass, we might see some interesting vote switches in both the Senate and the House. Otherwise, does anyone actually believe the House will not pass this thing? Given the odds of the bill not passing are .5% or less, this needless hot-air posturing makes the president look like a complete fool. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 15 Dec 2010 11:37 AM PST California's "Fantasy Land" budget finally comes to light of day. Jerry Brown said "I'm shocked. The mess is much worse than I thought." In turn, educators and unions were shocked by Jerry Brown's and state treasurer Bill Lockyer's statements "cuts are coming". Brown promised more cuts but no tax increases without voter approval. The LA Times reports Brown wants to fast-track budget agreement within 60 days. Gov.-elect Jerry Brown said Tuesday that he wants to complete a budget agreement within two months of unveiling his budget, an accelerated timeline that would allow a late-spring special election for potential tax increases or other revenue generation.Expect Union Fearmongering Jerry Brown sounds serious, but does he mean it? The unions are whining already. No doubt they will put every available penny into fearmongering in support of higher taxes. I sure hope the governor puts this to a vote. The most encouraging sign at the conference came from State Treasurer Bill Lockyer who said "So far, I've heard good ideas about how to spend more money. Great. It ain't there. It's time to make cuts, I believe deep cuts. I'd do the 25% across the board and just say those who wanted less government, you're going to get your wish. In other communities that are willing to put something on the ballot to make up that difference, they're going to have a higher service level." Educators were horrified of course. No Meat on the Bones "There is no more meat on this bone to carve, the only thing left is amputation," said David Sanchez, president of the California Teachers' Assn. "If we do what Mr. Grinch wants us to do, the possibility of shutting down schools is a reality. Is that really what we want to do?" Of course there is meat on the bones. Not a single has to teacher lose their job. All they have to do is grant reasonable concessions on union wages and pension benefits, then rein in absurd administration costs. That's it. Instead they will whine and bitch and moan begging for more handouts from taxpayers. In one sense, David Sanchez is correct. There is no meat on the bones, taxpayer bones. Should it come to a vote, taxpayers should tell David Sanchez and the California Teachers' Association to "Go to hell". By the way, massive state cuts are coming one way or another. The states can do it the proper way and stick it to the public unions, or states can rob taxpayers like they usually do. Either way it will be a hit to the economy. The first way would be a short-term hit for a long-term gain; The second way, raising taxes to fund union greed, would be a long-term disaster. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Interactive Map Showing Where $130 Billion in Earmarks Went, by State, District, and Politician Posted: 15 Dec 2010 10:01 AM PST Inquiring minds are investigating where $130 billion in earmarks for 2011 went, state by state, district by district, and in some cases by politician. The following interactive map is courtesy of Ellie Fields and Ross Perez at Tableau Software. Ross Perez writes ... As you may know, the administration has made numerous promises to make earmark data available to the public and congress has basically blown it off. The folks at the Sunlight Foundation, with help from others, have taken the time to go through and actually enumerate and record every single earmark for FY 2011 and put it into a downloadable database.The video contains lots of data and it may take extra time to load. Please be patient. It takes an extra 3-5 seconds on my computer. Your results may vary. If you have an inadequate memory, the display may be slow or inoperable. To see details such as the number of earmarks and the dollar total per district, click on "by district" then hover over one of the horizontal bars. For additional information including the Sunlight Foundation report and data, and a discussion of the huge effort it took to compile that data, please see Leading by Example: Earmark Transparency Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
Posted: 15 Dec 2010 03:27 AM PST To explain the ECB's panic over Spain, all one needs to do is look at this "exposure table" from the recently published BIS Quarterly Review. I highlighted areas of interest. click on chart for sharper image Exposure to Spain Germany - $216.6 billion France - $201.3 billion Great Britain - $136.5 billion US - $172.8 billion Exposure to Ireland Germany - $186.4 billion France - $77.3 billion Great Britain - $187.5 billion US - $108.3 billion Spain - $17.7 billion Exposure to Portugal Germany - $44.3 billion France - $48.5 billion US - $35.6 billion Spain - $98.3 billion Exposure to Greece Germany - $65.4 billion France - $83.1 billion US - $36.2 billion Note that Spain which itself needs to be bailed out, has a $98.3 billion exposure to Portugal (which will probably need to be bailed out next), as well as a $17.7 billion exposure to Ireland (bailout underway). Spain and Ireland are the big boys here, but the whole thing is a mess. The table does explain the panic at the ECB and EU to contain this mess. However, it is simply too late. The only question is how long will it take before this blows sky high? S&P Warns on Belgium Within months (if not much sooner) we may need to add Belgium to to the table. Please note the S&P gives Belgium credit rating warning amid political uncertainty S&P lowered Belgium's outlook to "negative" from "stable", because ongoing political instability is hampering efforts to bring the country's deficit under control. Unless the situation is resolved, S&P is likely to cut its rating on Belgium's long-term debt by one notch by June 2011.Spain on Review by Moody's While singing a song and dance about the strength of Spain that nobody in their right mind believes, simultaneously Moody's puts Spain's Debt Rating on Review. Moody's Investors Service put Spain's Aa1 debt rating on review for a possible downgrade on concern over the country's funding needs, debt level and control over public finances.How's that for a wishy-washy statement probably intended to calm nerves but likely had the opposite effect. Spain Pleads for More Flexibility Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero who absolutely insists Spain is not in any trouble and will be able to meet its budget cutting austerity goals, nonetheless Asks EU to be More Flexible With Rescue Fund Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero will ask the European Union to be more flexible with the use of the region's bailout fund, ABC reported without citing anyone.Game of Cat and Mouse The IMF wants the EU to increase the size of the bailout fund, as if it would matter. It wouldn't. The situation is hopeless unless and until the ECB and EU agree to do the one thing that needs to be done - take haircuts on senior debt. Hoping to stave off the inevitable, the ECB Plays Cat and Mouse Over the Euro On one side is the European Central Bank, which is spending billions to prop up Europe's weak-kneed bond markets and safeguard the common currency.What's the ECB going to do? Buy it all? Then what? Taking a Bite out of Bondholders Inquiring minds are reading Taking A Bite Out Of Bondholders by Tracy Alloway at Index Universe. "The great tragedy of the 2008/9 banking debacle was, despite the presence of more than sufficient capital, that the taxpayer was placed involuntarily into the capital structure, between bondholders and equity holders, to shield the bondholders from losses that they should have suffered," said Paul Marson, of Lombard Odier private banking.The 2013 Delayed-Haircut Non-solution German Chancellor Angela Merkel pushed for a compromise that would allow haircuts for debt issued after 2013. She is correct in the need for haircuts, but the idea this mess can be delayed until 2013 is clearly flawed. Even if by some miracle things could be contained until 2013, who would buy any troubled debt going forward? And who would not scramble to buy debt of the doggiest countries now if the ECB was silly enough to guarantee it? Merkel abandoned the idea after ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet warned her not to "unsettle bondholders". For more on the infighting between Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Trichet please see Barbershops Open in 2013, Market Screams for Haircuts Today; European Crisis Spreads to Core as Belgian Bond Yields Surge; Another "Stress Test" Scam The E-Bond Non-Solution For a look at Jean-Claude Juncker's plan to spread the pain by floating European-Wide E-Bonds, a plan trashed by both Germany and France, please see France Joins Germany to Nix Junker's Junk Bond Proposal to Save the Euro. Search for the Free Lunch Continues With plans proposed and scrapped left and right, eventually the market will take matters into its own hands. The signal will be a sudden, steep, widening of credit spreads in Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. Given that the current EU plan is best describes as "hoping the problem goes away", I suspect that will happen sooner rather than later. Humorous Flashback Flashback December 21, 2009: ECB Member Says No Bailouts The European Central Bank won't bail out debt-stricken member states such as Greece, which must repair its public finances on its own, ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny said.Please keep statements like that in mind when you hear foolish talk from Trichet and Noyer that there will not be haircuts on senior bonds. Here is the precise quote to bookmark: "As far as I'm concerned, I exclude that there will be haircuts in the future" said Christian Noyer governor of the Bank of France. Anecdotes From Spain My friend Bran send me links from Spain every day, this morning he writes ... Hello Mish,Piecemeal Proposals Doomed Writers Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Peer Steinbrück for the Financial Times suggest Germany must lead fightback The time for stumbling through the euro crisis is over. Piecemeal approaches and wait-and-see attitudes are endangering European integration. We now need a more radical, targeted effort to end the current uncertainty, and provide stronger support for the future of Europe's common institutions. This must also protect the European Central Bank from becoming Europe's "bad bank", and ensuring its credibility and independence in guarding a strong euro.Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Peer Steinbrück were respectively German foreign minister and German minister of finance between 2005 and 2009. There are many more details in the article regarding what the plan entails. Inquiring minds will give the article a closer look. Doing Nothing Won't Work Whether or not the plan would work is debatable. However, bickering while doing nothing cannot possibly work. Nor can any proposed solution that does not include significant haircuts on senior bonds. Unfortunately Chancellor Angela Merkel backed off her proposal to impose haircuts, and Germany and France both oppose E-Bonds. Of course Trichet and Noyer both insist "no haircuts" Arguably, Steinmeier and Steinbrück have taken the best parts of three failed plans and combined them into one package. Will anyone go for it? Assuming they do, please go back to that table at the top, noting the banks exposed to the PIGS. Assuming they don't please do the same thing. One way or another, sooner or later, banks with PIGS exposure will take a hit. It may (or may not) be somewhat-orderly if the EU agrees on and carries out the Steinmeier-Steinbrück plan in a timely manner. It is 100% guaranteed to be disorderly, if the market gets tired or waiting and imposes its own solution. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List |
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