miercuri, 26 august 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Durable Goods Boost Third Quarter GDP Estimate to 1.4% Annualized

Posted: 26 Aug 2015 02:53 PM PDT

Durable goods orders this morning leapfrogged all economic estimates (see Durable Goods Orders Surprise to Upside, Led by Autos).

Yet the GDPNow Forecast only rose by .01%.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 was 1.4 percent on August 26, up from 1.3 percent on August 18. The forecast for real GDP growth increased 0.1 percentage point to 1.4 percent after this morning's advance report on durable goods from the Census Bureau. The report boosted the model's forecast for equipment spending in the third quarter from 7.7 percent to 8.9 percent, and led to a slight improvement in the contribution of real inventory investment to third-quarter GDP growth.
GDPNow August 26, 2015



It's been entertaining and informative watching the evolution of these forecasts. Really big swings in some economic numbers often barely budge the expected result.

GDP growth of 1.4% is hardly the material on which rate hikes have historically been based.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Unidentified Investors Lend Belgium €50 Million, for 100 Years, With Flexible Conditions, at 2.5% Interest

Posted: 26 Aug 2015 11:10 AM PDT

In yet another sign of economic madness, investors have concluded that rates in Belgium are likely to stay low for decades to come.

Via translation, please consider Unidentified Investors Lent Belgium €50 Million for 100 Years at 2.5% Interest.
The director of the Belgium debt agency, Jean Deboutte, announced Belgium borrowed 50 million euros, for a hundred years at an interest rate 2.5 percent.

The borrowing for a hundred years is via EMTN loans. These are loans with more flexible conditions than the traditional OLO government bonds.

Who granted Belgium the loan is unknown.

"These are professional investors. Goldman Sachs International contacted us stating that it had investors who were interested in such a long term investment," said Deboutte.

According Deboutte, hundred year life of this debt shows that investors have great confidence in the reliability of Belgium as a good payer.
EMTN Defined

I looked up the term "EMTN". It stands for Euro Medium Term Note.  If 100 years is "medium term", dare I ask the definition of "long term"?

100 years at 2.5% and flexible conditions. What can possibly go wrong with that?

In the grand scheme of things €50 Million is a trivial amount to the global economy. Nonetheless,  the transaction does reflect how one-sided sentiment is in belief of perpetually low rates.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Durable Goods Orders Surprise to Upside, Led by Autos

Posted: 26 Aug 2015 10:08 AM PDT

Durable goods orders surged in July, beating the top-end of Bloomberg Consensus Estimates. Despite the surge, year-over-year orders are still in the red.


Exports have been weak but they didn't hold down July's durable orders which, for a second straight month, are strong, and strong nearly across the board. New orders rose 2.0 percent in the month which easily beat out top-end Econoday expectations for 1.2 percent. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.6 percent which is near the top-end forecast for 0.7 percent. Capital goods data show special strength with nondefense ex-aircraft orders up 2.2 percent following June's 1.2 percent gain and with related shipments up 0.6 percent following a gain of 0.9 percent.

Motor vehicles led the industrial production report for July and they're a standout in this report also. Orders for vehicles surged 4.0 percent in the month on top of June's 0.8 percent gain. Vehicle shipments are right behind, up 3.9 percent following a 0.9 percent gain. Commercial aircraft, a center of strength for the nation's factory sector, fell back with orders down 6.0 percent following June's 70 percent surge.

The good news continues with total shipments up 1.0 percent vs June's 0.9 percent gain which are very strong readings. Unfilled orders rose 0.2 percent while inventories, reflecting strength in shipments, were unchanged.

The factory sector has had a tough year, that is up until June when demand for vehicles began to take hold. This report speaks to domestic strength and should help offset ongoing concerns over global volatility.

In a special note on year-on-year change, total new orders are down 19.6 percent which reflects an aircraft comparison with the Farnborough airshow in July last year. Excluding transportation, orders are down 2.5 percent which is an improvement vs declines of 4.5 and 2.7 percent in the prior two months.
Monthly vs. Yearly



The skew in aircraft orders made the year-over-year comparisons this month (yellow highlight) especially tough. Next month, the year-over-year comparison (pink highlight) will be especially easy.

Discounting the huge swings, this is the first time durable goods have had consecutive month-to-month gains in a year.

Once again autos lead the way. I keep wondering how long that can possibly last.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


See The Cast Of Men In Black Back In The Day And Today

Posted: 26 Aug 2015 12:10 PM PDT

It's been 18 years since the release of the original "Men in Black." See what the cast looks like now.



Will Smith



Tommy Lee Jones



Linda Fiorentino



Vincent D'Onofrio



Tony Shalhoub



David Cross



Rip Torn



PozzitifonShow: "ЛУЧШИЙ ГОЛ В ИСТОРИИ | Garry's Mod (Смешные Моменты в Gmod)" and more videos

PozzitifonShow: "ЛУЧШИЙ ГОЛ В ИСТОРИИ | Garry's Mod (Смешные Моменты в Gmod)" and more videos

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The SEO Professional's Guide to Waterfall Diagrams - Moz Blog

The SEO Professional's Guide to Waterfall Diagrams

Posted by Zoompf

As we know well by now, the speed of a web page is very important from an SEO and user experience perspective. Faster pages have higher search engine ranks, and users will visit more pages and convert higher on a fast performing website. In short, the smart SEO professional needs to also think about optimizing for performance as well as content.

As we discussed in our last article, WebPageTest is a great free tool you can use to optimize your website performance. One of the most useful outputs of the WebPageTest tool is a graphic known as the waterfall diagram. A waterfall diagram is a graphical view of all the resources loaded by a web browser to present your page to your users, showing both the order in which those resources were loaded and how long it took to load each resource. Analyzing how those resources are loaded can give you insight into what's slowing down your webpage, and what you can fix to make it faster.

Waterfall diagrams are a lot like Microsoft Excel: they are simple in concept and can be very powerful, yet most people aren't using them to their fullest potential. In this article, we will show how an SEO professional can use waterfall diagrams created by tools like WebPageTest to identify and improve their site's performance and user experience.

How to read a waterfall diagram

If you haven't done so already, go to WebPageTest and run a test of your site. When the results are finished, click into the first test result to see the waterfall. Below is a sample waterfall chart (click for a larger version).

cia-waterfall-small

As mentioned above, waterfall diagrams are cascading charts that show how a web browser loads and renders a web page. Every row of the diagram is a separate request made by the browser. The taller the diagram, the more requests that are made to load the web page. The width of each row represents how long it takes for the browser to request a resource and download the response.

For each row, the waterfall chart uses a multi-colored bar to show where the browser spent its time loading that resource, for example:

waterfall-row-better

It's important to understand each phase of a request since you can improve the speed of your site by reducing the amount of time spent in each of these phases. Here is a brief overview:

  • DNS Lookup [Dark Green] - Before the browser can talk to a server it must do a DNS lookup to convert the hostname to an IP Address. There isn't much you can do about this, and luckily it doesn't happen for all requests.
  • Initial Connection [Orange] - Before the browser can send a request, it must create a TCP connection. This should only happen on the first few rows of the chart, otherwise there's a performance problem (more on this later).
  • SSL/TLS Negotiation [Purple] - If your page is loading resources securely over SSL/TLS, this is the time the browser spends setting up that connection. With Google now using HTTPS as a search ranking factor, SSL/TLS negotiation is more and more common.
  • Time To First Byte (TTFB) [Green] - The TTFB is the time it takes for the request to travel to the server, for the server to process it, and for the first byte of the response to make it make to the browser. We will use the measurement to determine if your web server is underpowered or you need to use a CDN.
  • Downloading (Blue) - This is the time the browser spends downloading the response. The longer this phase is, the larger the resource is. Ideally you can control the length of this phase by optimizing the size of your content.

You will also notice a few other lines on the waterfall diagram. There is a green vertical line which shows when "Start Render" happens. As we discussed in our last article, until Start Render happens, the user is looking at a blank white screen. A large Start Render time will make the user feel like your site is slow and unresponsive. There are some additional data points in the waterfall, such as "Content Download", but these are more advanced topics beyond the scope of this article.

Optimizing performance with a waterfall diagram

So how do we make a webpage load more quickly and create a better user experience? A waterfall chart provides us with 3 great visual aids to assist with this goal:

  1. First, we can optimize our site to reduce the amount of time it takes to download all the resources. This reduces the width of our waterfall. The skinnier the waterfall, the faster your site.
  2. Second, we can reduce the number of requests the browser needs to make to load a page. This reduces the height of our waterfall. The shorter your waterfall, the better.
  3. Finally, we can optimize the ordering of resource requests to improve rendering time. This moves the green Start Render line to the left. The further left this line, the better.

Let's now dive into each of these in more detail.

Reducing the width of the waterfall

We can reduce the width of the waterfall by reducing how long it takes to download each resource. We know that each row of the waterfall uses color to denote the different phases of fetching a resource. How often you see different colors reveals different optimizations you can make to improve the overall speed.

  • Is there a lot of orange? Orange is for the initial TCP connection made to your site. Only the first 2-6 requests to a specific hostname should need to create a TCP connection, after that the existing connections get reused. If you see a lot of orange on the chart, it means your site isn't using persistent connections. Below you can see a waterfall diagram for a site that isn't using persistent connections and note the orange section at the start of every request row. connections-bad Once persistent connections is enabled, the width of every request row will be cut in half because the browser won't have to make new connections with every request.
  • Are there long, purple sections? Purple is the time spent performing an SSL/TLS negotiation. If you are seeing a lot of purple over and over again for the same site, it means you haven't optimized for TLS. In the snippet of diagram below, we see 2 HTTPS requests. One server has been properly optimized, whereas the other has a bad TLS configuration: ms-is-silly To optimize TLS performance, see our previous Moz article .
  • Are there any long blue sections? Blue is the time spent downloading the response. If a row has a big blue section, it most likely means the response (the resource) is very large. A great way to speed up a site is to simply reduce the amount of data that has to be sent to the client. If you see a lot of blue, ask yourself "Why is that resource so large?" Chances are you can reduce the size of it through HTTP compression, minification, or image optimization. As an example, in the diagram below, we see a PNG image that is taking a long time to download. We can tell because the of the long blue section. long-download Further research revealed that this image is nearly 1.1 MB in size! Turns out the designer forgot to export it properly from Photoshop. Using image optimization techniques reduced this row and made the overall page load faster.
  • Is there a lot of green? Chances are there is a lot of green. Green is the browser just waiting to get content. Many times you'll see a row where the browser is waiting 80 or 90 ms, only to spend 1 ms downloading the resource! The best way to reduce the green section is to move your static content, like images, to a content delivery network (CDN) closer to your users. More on this later.

Reducing the height of the waterfall

If the waterfall diagram is tall, the browser is having to make a large number of requests to load the page. The best way to reduce the number of requests is to review all the content your page is including and determine if you really need all of it. For example:

  • Do you see a lot of CSS or JavaScript files? Below is a snippet of a waterfall diagram from an AOL site which, I kid you not, requests 48 separate CSS files! aol-is-silly If you site is loading a large number of individual CSS or JavaScript files, you should try combining them as with a CMS plugin or as part of your build process. Combining files reduces the number of requests made, improving your overall page speed.
  • Do you see a lot of "small" (less than 2kb) JavaScript files or CSS files? Consider including the contents of those files directly in your HTML via inline

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