miercuri, 31 decembrie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Bluff of the Day: Germany Warns "Greece is No Longer of Systemic Importance For the Euro"

Posted: 31 Dec 2014 03:34 PM PST

In the obvious bluff of the day, Euro zone No Longer Obliged to Rescue Greece, Merkel Ally Says.

Actually, the eurozone was never obliged to rescue Greece, and in fact did not rescue Greece. Rather the EU and Troika rescued European banks holding Greek bonds.

Here's the actual bluff.
In an interview with Rheinische Post newspaper published on Wednesday, Michael Fuchs also said Greek politicians could not now "blackmail" their partners in the currency bloc.

"If Alexis Tsipras of the Greek left party Syriza thinks he can cut back the reform efforts and austerity measures, then the troika will have to cut back the credits for Greece," he said.

"The times where we had to rescue Greece are over. There is no potential for political blackmail anymore. Greece is no longer of systemic importance for the euro."
Blackmail Potential

Curiously, there was little potential for blackmail years past when Greece ran a primary account deficit (Greece needed money from Europe to stay afloat), but now Greece has a tiny current account surplus (not counting interest payments).

Countries with current account surpluses are not dependent on foreigners to finance debt. This makes it all the more likely Greece can tell the Troika "go to hell".

Of course, Tsipras has made all kinds of pledges that would kill the surplus if carried out, but since when do politicians keep promises?

More than likely a default would wreck the Greece economy, but so does interest on €245 billion in "bailouts" for years if not decades to come. Tsipras may easily decide he has nothing to lose.

Ironically, if his economic proposals were better, Greece would indeed have everything to gain and nothing to lose by cramming this straight down the EU's throat.

Eurozone Financial Stability Contribution Weights

CountryGuarantee Commitments (EUR) MillionsPercentage
Austria€ 21,639.192.78%
Belgium€ 27,031.993.47%
Cyprus€ 1,525.680.20%
Estonia€ 1,994.860.26%
Finland€ 13,974.031.79%
France€ 158,487.5320.32%
Germany€ 211,045.9027.06%
Greece€ 21,897.742.81%
Ireland€ 12,378.151.59%
Italy€ 139,267.8117.86%
Luxembourg€ 1,946.940.25%
Malta€ 704.330.09%
Netherlands€ 44,446.325.70%
Portugal€ 19,507.262.50%
Slovakia€ 7,727.570.99%
Slovenia€ 3,664.300.47%
Spain€ 92,543.5611.87%
Eurozone 17€ 779,783.14100%

The above table from European Financial Stability Facility

I posted the above table on Monday in Snap Elections in Greece; 3-Year Bond Yield Tops 12%; Potential Cascade! Who Has the Upper Hand?.

Here's a second table I created today to put a potential €245 billion default into proper perspective based on percentage liabilities.

Responsibility in Euros

CountryPercentageGreek Debt Responsibility
Austria2.78%6.79875
Belgium3.47%8.49317
Cyprus0.20%0.479465
Estonia0.26%0.62671
Finland1.79%4.3904
France20.32%49.79527
Germany27.06%66.308515
Greece2.81%6.88009
Ireland1.59%3.88913
Italy17.86%43.75651
Luxembourg0.25%0.611765
Malta0.09%0.221235
Netherlands5.70%13.96451
Portugal2.50%6.12892
Slovakia0.99%2.42795
Slovenia0.47%1.151255
Spain11.87%29.076355
Eurozone 17100%245

The idea that Greece is responsible to cover its own default is of course ridiculous, so mentally spread Greece's €6.88 billion liability to the other countries.

Italy's responsibility would rise by a little over €1 billion while Spain's liability would rise by a little under €1 billion. Germany would need to pick up about €2 billion, and France about €1.5 billion etc.

Where is Spain going to come up with €30 billion? Italy €45 billion? France €51 billion?

The simple answer is they aren't. So, does the ECB print the money in violation of rules and pass it out?

If not, who's bluffing whom regarding "systemic importance" of Greece?

The irony of the day is that Greece was no systemic threat to the eurozone until the Troika foolishly threw  €245 billion at Greece hoping to prevent a default.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Seven Generations Of Family

Posted: 31 Dec 2014 04:51 PM PST

This woman traced her family tree back seven generations that spanned two centuries. This is what she found.


















via reddit

Female Bullfighter Gored Twice by Bull

Posted: 31 Dec 2014 11:46 AM PST

Single mother and bullfighter Karla de los Angeles was injured in Mexico City, Sunday after twice taking blows from a bull's horns. The 495 kg (1,090lb) bull named Gamusino first gored her just as she was going in for the kill. Despite the initial blow, de los Angeles managed to resume the battle after medical attention only to be gored again. She could not resume the fight for a third time. She suffered two cuts of 12cm (4.7 in) and 10cm (3.9in) in length to her thigh and buttock.





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The Best of the Best: Celebrating the Top 10 of the Moz Top 10 for 2014

The Best of the Best: Celebrating the Top 10 of the Moz Top 10 for 2014


The Best of the Best: Celebrating the Top 10 of the Moz Top 10 for 2014

Posted: 30 Dec 2014 04:14 PM PST

Posted by Isla_McKetta

Oh no, another year-end roundup! But before you click away, let me sell you a little on why this is the roundup you actually want to read.

You see, to compile the Moz Top 10 over the last year, we probably read 50 or more articles EACH WEEK, that's around 100 articles for every issue. We then spent innumerable hours curating and culling until we could share with you the very best of those articles in the bi-weekly Top 10.

So this is not just another listicle. This article is in fact the distillation of the very best content from all over the interwebs for the past year that has anything to do with digital marketing. Basically, we read 2,600 (or so) articles so you don't have to.

What does "best" mean?

There's no formula for what makes an article Top-10 worthy. We look for the best content of each two week period and then try and winnow and fit it until each newsletter contains just the right balance of digital marketing tips, tricks, analysis, and inspiration.

We work to reach beyond SEO and find articles that will help people who specialize in content, social, design, UX, and more broaden their skill set and understand the work their marketing compatriots engage in. The mix and style changes as the author of this newsletter changes. I'm biased toward content marketing, Cyrus loves SEO. Trevor's a sucker for a journalistic slant.

But whoever is writing the latest edition is trying to find that perfect balance so you come away from the newsletter having found at least one article that teaches you something new, changes the way you think about marketing, or makes your job a little easier.

We look for articles by authors new and old that are well written, well illustrated, and comprehensive. Sometimes we publish something because it's a really good resource or because it says the thing that needs to be said.

Some pieces make the Top 10 because they are heart-achingly eloquent. And sometimes we include a little something fun, playful, or easy on the eyes (but still educational) at the end to finish your day off right.

Then news breaks (ahem, Google) and we reconfigure it all.

The Top 10 of the Top 10

For the Top 10 of the Moz Top 10, we could have gone with the most newsworthy content—articles that claim some tactic is dead or some era is over, but Search Engine Land already did that, so I wanted to take a different approach.

Instead, I chose the articles from 2014 that endure. Below you'll find articles that continue to inspire, how-tos and guides so comprehensive they deserve a revisit, and, yes, even a few tips and tricks that you should really get to. Without further ado, here are the best of the best…

1. Life is a Game. This is Your Strategy Guide

If you can master life, all that marketing stuff is a cake walk. Level up in your day-to-day with this thoughtful, comprehensive, and gorgeous guide from Oliver Emberton.

2. Announcing the All-New Beginner's Guide to Link Building

Paddy Moogan knows a thing or two about link building, and here he's teamed up with some folks at Moz to turn all of that information into an easy-to-follow yet comprehensive guide. I had no part in this project, so I can safely tell you I <3 the Zelda references.

3. No Words Wasted: A Guide to Creating Focused Content

From getting customer interviews right to nailing content promotion, this massive guide from Distilled covers everything you need to know about content strategy. I learn something new (or rediscover something I should never have forgotten) every time I read it.

4. Micro Data & Schema.org Rich Snippets: Everything You Need to Know

If you don't know what micro data are and you haven't figured out what to do with Schema.org, your content marketing is missing a crucial element for SERP success. BuiltVisible to the rescue with this amazing and easy-to-follow guide.

5. The Beginner's Guide to Conversion Rate Optimization

If you suspect there's a blockage in your sales funnel, it's time to think about CRO. This guide from Qualaroo will tell you everything you need to know to start pinpointing (and fixing) your barriers to conversion.

6. 2014 Industry Survey Results

A survey so big we can only do it once every two years. Peek at salaries, tools, and trends to compare where the digital marketing industry was at the beginning of 2014 to where you are now for a peek at what the future may hold. 

7. UX Crash Course: User Psychology

Composed of 31 lessons, this online "course" will help you understand user motivation and how you can use psychology to massively improve your user experience.

8. A Geek's Guide to Gaming The Algorithms

Sometimes looking at information from a slightly different angle makes it easier to digest. In this delightful piece, Ian Lurie teaches us when it's okay to game the algorithms at the same time as he's spelling out, in plain language, what each algorithm update was really about.

9. The Ultimate List of IFTTT Recipes for Marketers

Favorite part of this amazingly detailed post from SEER? The fact that it starts from a user's perspective. So whether you want to "stalk your competitors' stocks" or "keep track of industry meetups," there's an answer (in the form of an IFTTT recipe) here for you.

10. The Rich Snippets Algorithm

So much changed in the realm of rich snippets last year. AJ Kohn delves into the relationship between those rich snippets and knowledge graph results. It's a heady post that just might offer some interesting insight into the future of SERPs.

Sign up for the Moz Top 10

Like what you see? Want us to read all the articles while you peruse a summary of the most important things you need to know?

Sign up for the Moz Top 10

After you click that big red button, you'll be taken to the Moz Top 10 page and asked to enter your email and hit "subscribe." At that moment we'll put you on the list for the very next edition, currently scheduled for January 13.

Submit to the Moz Top 10

And if you're someone who's writing Top-10-worthy content and we just haven't found you yet, we want to read what you've got. So please send us your suggestions. Each edition of the Moz Top 10 only covers content from the most recent two-week period, so send that link while the content is still fresh.


Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!