vineri, 31 iulie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Greek Stock Market Reopens (sort of); Math Perspective on the "Bailout"
Rabbit-Hole Math: Chicago Proposes Bonds that Make No Periodic Payments; When Does Stupidity Stop?
IMF Reiterates Greece Disqualified for Bailout, Participation Depends on Debt Relief and Reforms

Greek Stock Market Reopens (sort of); Math Perspective on the "Bailout"

Posted: 31 Jul 2015 01:53 PM PDT

The Greek news of the day is Greek Stock Market to Reopen, With Restrictions.

Restrictions

People cannot draw on their Greek bank accounts to buy shares
People can only buy shares with existing brokerage account cash

I supposed people could transfer cash from elsewhere into stocks but no one in their right mind would do such a thing.

And what about taking cash out of brokerage accounts, wiring it elsewhere? The article did not say, but I suspect that has capital restrictions as well.

Will the market really reopen Monday?

I suggest not.

Reader "Bailout" Perspective

Reader "AC" occasionally pings me with some interesting comments and perspectives. Here's another one.

Ciao Mish,

I wanted just to share some elements to put in perspective things about Greek bailout.

Greece is a small country with small GDP, but please consider the ratio of the bailout and guarantee vs GDP.

Greek GDP is around $238 billion in 2014 (€216 billion).

The new bailout is €86 billion. That is 40% of GDP! Should people put the same percentage to the size of the state they live in, they would understand much better what this bailout means.

Schauble asked for €50 billion guarantee. In effect, Schauble seeks a Greek guarantee 1/4 of the country's GDP. Is this reasonably possible?

People involved in the matter have simply lost the sense of proportions and contact with reality.

Best Regards,

AC

Additional Math

To further add to AC's perspective, the existing bailouts equal €240 billion. The total bailout will be €326 billion (not counting additional money needed to stabilize the banks, and not counting Target2 imbalances of about €120 billion and growing).

€326 billion exceeds 150% of GDP.

Germany wants Greece to have a current account surplus of 3% of GDP.
3% of €216 billion (2014 GDP) is €6.48 billion.

At zero percent interest, assuming a 3% surplus every year, and also assuming every penny of the surplus goes to creditors, it will take Greece 50 years to pay back €326 billion.

Of course, Greek GDP is expected to rise. Then again, I assumed 0% interest, and I also assumed a 3% current account surplus from now until seemingly ever. The math gets much more cumbersome at interest rates that exceed a mere 1%.

Pardon me for asking, but ...

Who is it that's really being "bailed out"?
How the hell can this proposal possibly work?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Rabbit-Hole Math: Chicago Proposes Bonds that Make No Periodic Payments; When Does Stupidity Stop?

Posted: 31 Jul 2015 11:43 AM PDT

Chicago Eyes Bonds that Delay Repayments

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel has his eyes on raising money via Capital Appreciation Bonds.

CABs saddle taxpayers with higher costs because they delay interest and principle payments until a final lump-sum payment at the end.

CABs have fallen out of favor because of risk. Some cities and states have outlawed them.

Nonetheless, Chicago Mulls Borrowing That Puerto Rico Rejected as Too Risky.

Mayor Rahm Emanuel proposed issuing $500 million of bonds this week in an ordinance that would permit the use of capital appreciation bonds, where borrowers postpone interest and principal payments into one big sum at the end of the term.

Chicago is struggling to plug its deficit and $20 billion of unfunded pension liabilities. Emanuel's move would give the third-most-populous city a means of borrowing without having to face the costs right away.

Texas restricted the use of CABs in June and California has limited them since 2013. The Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority dismissed a bondholder plan last week to restructure its debt using capital appreciation bonds, citing the disproportionate risks.

Former California Treasurer William Lockyer called the debt "abusive" because it passes on large payments to future generations.

"They increase the total cost and lower flexibility going into the future," said Steve Murray, a senior director at Fitch Ratings. "They can limit future borrowing ability."

Emanuel also proposed selling $125 million of wastewater revenue bonds to fund swap termination payments, Poppe said. A separate ordinance would authorize $2 billion in bonds for O'Hare International Airport, including $1.7 billion of refunding for savings, and about $300 million of new money for capital projects and interest, according to Poppe.

Rabbit-Hole Math

Given Chicago's junk bond rating, no investor in their right mind would purchase Chicago CABs. Default risk is enormous.

Also note that Emanuel needs to sell bonds to "fund swap termination payments". Those termination fees came into play because Chicago issued taxpayer-risky bonds that required repayment if the bonds dropped into junk territory.

Those bond are now junk, so Chicago has to borrow money to get out of swaps it never should have gotten into in the first place.

And $1.7 billion in bonds for "refunding savings". Say what? Borrowing to refund savings?

That statement caught my eye, but a vice president of US bank pinged me with this explanation:

"In muni land, refunding is another word for refinancing. So when the City of Chicago is talking about 'refunding for savings' they are referring to refinancing for interest savings. Not sure where the term originated, but that's what we call it."

Desperation Tactics

These are the tactics of a city that is clearly in serious trouble. Is there no end to stupidity?

Here's the deal.

Chicago pension promises cannot be met.
The Chicago Board of Education is bankrupt.
The City itself is bankrupt as well (but no one can really say that, especially when they cannot admit points one and two).

Until there is an honest discussion about the above three points, Emanuel has proven he is willing to go further down the rabbit hole in search of solutions that cannot possibly work in the real world.

Emanuel Needs Another Choice

The Illinois legislature contributes to the problem. Chicago needs choices. One of those choices is to declare bankruptcy.

Because bankruptcy is different for municipalities than corporations, Chicago itself cannot declare bankruptcy now. But the school system can and should.

Unfortunately, Illinois municipalities cannot declare bankruptcy until the state allows it. The legislature needs to give Chicago that choice.

Perhaps that choice would wake up the mayor. Perhaps not.

Question of Mushrooms

Did Emanuel eat too may funny mushrooms in his travels in Wonderland to understand a good option when he sees it?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

IMF Reiterates Greece Disqualified for Bailout, Participation Depends on Debt Relief and Reforms

Posted: 31 Jul 2015 02:21 AM PDT

Once again the IMF is back in the news in regards to Greece.

The IMF staff told the board of directors Greece Disqualified from New IMF Program.

Yet, Germany insists IMF be a part of the program. The reason for the latter is Germany will have to pony up lots more money if the IMF is not involved. The staff presented this message to the board this week, along with the message eurozone bailout lenders first need to agree on "debt relief".

From the above link (Financial Times) ...

The International Monetary Fund's board has been told Athens' high debt levels and poor record of implementing reforms disqualify Greece from a third IMF bailout of the country, raising new questions over whether the fund will join the EU's latest financial rescue.

The determination, presented by IMF staff at a two-hour board meeting on Wednesday, means that while IMF staff will participate in bailout negotiations currently under way in Athens, the fund will not decide whether to agree a new programme for months — potentially into next year.

The IMF's assessment adds another source of complexity, just as Athens and its bailout monitors begin discussions to try to conclude a deal before a tight August 20 deadline.

According to a four-page "strictly confidential" summary of Wednesday's board meeting, IMF negotiators will take part in policy discussions to ensure the eurozone's new bailout "is consistent with what the fund has in mind".

But they "cannot reach staff-level agreement at this stage". The fund will decide whether to take part only after Greece has "agreed on a comprehensive set of reforms" and, crucially, after eurozone bailout lenders have "agreed on debt relief".

[Germany] now faces the prospect of trying to move an €86bn bailout through a sceptical Bundestag in a matter of weeks, without the IMF's imprimatur.

Some Greek officials suspect the IMF and Wolfgang Schäuble, the hardline German finance minister, are determined to scupper a Greek rescue, despite the July agreement to move forward with a third bailout.

In a private teleconference made public this week, Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, said he feared that his government would pass new rounds of economic reforms only for the IMF to pull the plug on the programme later this year.

"According to its own rules, the IMF cannot participate in any new bailout. I mean, they've already violated their rules twice to do so, but I don't think they will do it a third time," said Mr Varoufakis. "Dr Schäuble and the IMF have a common interest: they don't want this deal to go ahead."

Senior EU officials have insisted that Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, signalled her willingness to participate in a new bailout at the high-stakes summit that agreed the new rescue earlier in July.

But Greece has become a growing source of rancour within the fund and among its shareholders. People who have spoken with senior IMF officials say Ms Lagarde is facing a unified staff view that the fund's reputation is on the line and that it cannot agree to a new programme without significant changes.

According to the board minutes, several non-European board members — including from Asia, Brazil and Canada — gave warning over the need to "protect the reputation of the fund", and the document says Ms Lagarde acknowledged their concerns.

"[Ms Lagarde] stressed that in their engagement they have to be mindful about the reputation of the fund," the summary says.

According to the summary, IMF staff concluded that Greece no longer cleared two of the four requirements in the IMF's "exceptional access criteria" — the fund framework that allows it to grant bailouts of larger-than-normal size.

Same Old Same Old?

This is essentially the same story we heard two weeks ago in another "confidential" leak.

Nathan Tankus writing on Naked Capitalism presented this view on July 16: Lagarde Distances the IMF From Implications of Leaked Debt Sustainability Report.

In general, when discussing large complicated institutions distinctions must be made between parts of this institution. The mainstream press is particularly bad at that kind of nuance because these organizations are already complicated: making further distinctions between IMF managing directors, IMF staff and the IMF executive board gets needlessly obscurant in their view. However, these distinctions are important. The report that was leaked two weeks ago and the latest update to that report was written by IMF staff and specifically "neither discussed with nor approved by the IMF's Executive Board". Additionally, Christine Lagarde or her title "managing director" appear nowhere in this document. Thus to say that the "IMF" is saying anything in this report is deeply misleading.

The reporting of this latest update was even more muddled because it was combined with an anonymous statement from a "senior IMF official" by the Financial Times.

In my mind this anonymous official's statements only make sense in three situations:

Christine Lagarde is both unwilling to sign on to a deal the Eurogroup would currently agree to and unwilling to overtly and strongly pressure them to create a "better" deal they could sign. Thus she is aiming for a Grexit and no deal.
Christine Lagarde is willing to sign on to whatever deal the Eurogroup would currently agree to but wants to covertly pressure them to offer more debt restructuring. In other words it's a point of contention but not a dealbreaker.
Many on the IMF staff don't want Lagarde to sign whatever deal the Eurogroup is currently considering and specifically want much more debt restructuring. They have and are willing to leak things to the media to attempt to create this outcome whether by embarrassing their own Managing Director or putting indirect pressure on the Eurogroup.

To me option three seems like the most plausible. The same FT reporters (Peter Spiegel in Brussels and Shawn Donnan in Washington) reported over three weeks ago that a "senior [IMF] official" says many staff at the IMF "would rather cut off their little finger" than continue being involved in Greek bailouts. The use of similar descriptions ("senior official" and "IMF senior officials") implies that the same sources at the IMF that said this over three weeks ago have been leaking the Debt Sustainability analysis and interpreted them for the press. This suggests a revolt among the rank and file of the IMF that doesn't extend to the people who will ultimately make the decision.

Options Four, Five, Six

The above analysis seemed plausible at the time. It doesn't anymore. For starters, the report has now been presented to the executive board.

And a four-page "strictly confidential" summary appears to be in the Financial Time's hands.

We need to now consider options four, Five, and Six.

IMF executive board no longer want to be part of this mess. They cannot directly say so because it implies that Varoufakis was correct in his assertion. Rather than a staff revolt, the staff may have been authorized to leak its findings in advance
The IMF executive board is willing to be part of this mess, but only if Germany goes first. The risk here is the deal blows up entirely, but Germany would likely get the brunt of blame. Again, the staff may have been authorized to leak its findings in advance.
The IMF executive board is internally fighting, not just the staff. Many may be ganging up on Lagarde.

Option six is not incompatible with either 4 or 5. The staff revolt and the leak may not have been authorized by Lagarde herself, but by others on the executive board.

This brings us back to "Senior EU officials have insisted that Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director, signalled her willingness to participate in a new bailout at the high-stakes summit that agreed the new rescue earlier in July."

It's possible EU "senior officials" are mincing words, not Lagarde. Willingness to participate does not imply "on German terms". Certainly, senior EU officials have lied before.

It still may very well be that Nathan Tankus is correct, but more options are clearly in play. I suspect option six coupled with either four or five, perhaps over the wishes of Lagarde herself.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

The Linkbait Bump: How Viral Content Creates Long-Term Lift in Organic Traffic - Whiteboard Friday - Moz Blog

The Linkbait Bump: How Viral Content Creates Long-Term Lift in Organic Traffic - Whiteboard Friday

Posted by randfish

A single fantastic (or "10x") piece of content can lift a site's traffic curves long beyond the popularity of that one piece. In today's Whiteboard Friday, Rand talks about why those curves settle into a "new normal," and how you can go about creating the content that drives that change.

For reference, here's a still of this week's whiteboard. Click on it to open a high resolution image in a new tab!

Video Transcription

Howdy, Moz fans, and welcome to another edition of Whiteboard Friday. This week we're chatting about the linkbait bump, classic phrase in the SEO world and almost a little dated. I think today we're talking a little bit more about viral content and how high-quality content, content that really is the cornerstone of a brand or a website's content can be an incredible and powerful driver of traffic, not just when it initially launches but over time.

So let's take a look.

This is a classic linkbait bump, viral content bump analytics chart. I'm seeing over here my traffic and over here the different months of the year. You know, January, February, March, like I'm under a thousand. Maybe I'm at 500 visits or something, and then I have this big piece of viral content. It performs outstandingly well from a relative standpoint for my site. It gets 10,000 or more visits, drives a ton more people to my site, and then what happens is that that traffic falls back down. But the new normal down here, new normal is higher than the old normal was. So the new normal might be at 1,000, 1,500 or 2,000 visits whereas before I was at 500.

Why does this happen?

A lot of folks see an analytics chart like this, see examples of content that's done this for websites, and they want to know: Why does this happen and how can I replicate that effect? The reasons why are it sort of feeds back into that viral loop or the flywheel, which we've talked about in previous Whiteboard Fridays, where essentially you start with a piece of content. That content does well, and then you have things like more social followers on your brand's accounts. So now next time you go to amplify content or share content socially, you're reaching more potential people. You have a bigger audience. You have more people who share your content because they've seen that that content performs well for them in social. So they want to find other content from you that might help their social accounts perform well.

You see more RSS and email subscribers because people see your interesting content and go, "Hey, I want to see when these guys produce something else." You see more branded search traffic because people are looking specifically for content from you, not necessarily just around this viral piece, although that's often a big part of it, but around other pieces as well, especially if you do a good job of exposing them to that additional content. You get more bookmark and type in traffic, more searchers biased by personalization because they've already visited your site. So now when they search and they're logged into their accounts, they're going to see your site ranking higher than they normally would otherwise, and you get an organic SEO lift from all the links and shares and engagement.

So there's a ton of different factors that feed into this, and you kind of want to hit all of these things. If you have a piece of content that gets a lot of shares, a lot of links, but then doesn't promote engagement, doesn't get more people signing up, doesn't get more people searching for your brand or searching for that content specifically, then it's not going to have the same impact. Your traffic might fall further and more quickly.

How do you achieve this?

How do we get content that's going to do this? Well, we're going to talk through a number of things that we've talked about previously on Whiteboard Friday. But there are some additional ones as well. This isn't just creating good content or creating high quality content, it's creating a particular kind of content. So for this what you want is a deep understanding, not necessarily of what your standard users or standard customers are interested in, but a deep understanding of what influencers in your niche will share and promote and why they do that.

This often means that you follow a lot of sharers and influencers in your field, and you understand, hey, they're all sharing X piece of content. Why? Oh, because it does this, because it makes them look good, because it helps their authority in the field, because it provides a lot of value to their followers, because they know it's going to get a lot of retweets and shares and traffic. Whatever that because is, you have to have a deep understanding of it in order to have success with viral kinds of content.

Next, you want to have empathy for users and what will give them the best possible experience. So if you know, for example, that a lot of people are coming on mobile and are going to be sharing on mobile, which is true of almost all viral content today, FYI, you need to be providing a great mobile and desktop experience. Oftentimes that mobile experience has to be different, not just responsive design, but actually a different format, a different way of being able to scroll through or watch or see or experience that content.

There are some good examples out there of content that does that. It makes a very different user experience based on the browser or the device you're using.

You also need to be aware of what will turn them off. So promotional messages, pop-ups, trying to sell to them, oftentimes that diminishes user experience. It means that content that could have been more viral, that could have gotten more shares won't.

Unique value and attributes that separate your content from everything else in the field. So if there's like ABCD and whoa, what's that? That's very unique. That stands out from the crowd. That provides a different form of value in a different way than what everyone else is doing. That uniqueness is often a big reason why content spreads virally, why it gets more shared than just the normal stuff.

I've talk about this a number of times, but content that's 10X better than what the competition provides. So unique value from the competition, but also quality that is not just a step up, but 10X better, massively, massively better than what else you can get out there. That makes it unique enough. That makes it stand out from the crowd, and that's a very hard thing to do, but that's why this is so rare and so valuable.

This is a critical one, and I think one that, I'll just say, many organizations fail at. That is the freedom and support to fail many times, to try to create these types of effects, to have this impact many times before you hit on a success. A lot of managers and clients and teams and execs just don't give marketing teams and content teams the freedom to say, "Yeah, you know what? You spent a month and developer resources and designer resources and spent some money to go do some research and contracted with this third party, and it wasn't a hit. It didn't work. We didn't get the viral content bump. It just kind of did okay. You know what? We believe in you. You've got a lot of chances. You should try this another 9 or 10 times before we throw it out. We really want to have a success here."

That is something that very few teams invest in. The powerful thing is because so few people are willing to invest that way, the ones that do, the ones that believe in this, the ones that invest long term, the ones that are willing to take those failures are going to have a much better shot at success, and they can stand out from the crowd. They can get these bumps. It's powerful.

Not a requirement, but it really, really helps to have a strong engaged community, either on your site and around your brand, or at least in your niche and your topic area that will help, that wants to see you, your brand, your content succeed. If you're in a space that has no community, I would work on building one, even if it's very small. We're not talking about building a community of thousands or tens of thousands. A community of 100 people, a community of 50 people even can be powerful enough to help content get that catalyst, that first bump that'll boost it into viral potential.

Then finally, for this type of content, you need to have a logical and not overly promotional match between your brand and the content itself. You can see many sites in what I call sketchy niches. So like a criminal law site or a casino site or a pharmaceutical site that's offering like an interactive musical experience widget, and you're like, "Why in the world is this brand promoting this content? Why did they even make it? How does that match up with what they do? Oh, it's clearly just intentionally promotional."

Look, many of these brands go out there and they say, "Hey, the average web user doesn't know and doesn't care." I agree. But the average web user is not an influencer. Influencers know. Well, they're very, very suspicious of why content is being produced and promoted, and they're very skeptical of promoting content that they don't think is altruistic. So this kills a lot of content for brands that try and invest in it when there's no match. So I think you really need that.

Now, when you do these linkbait bump kinds of things, I would strongly recommend that you follow up, that you consider the quality of the content that you're producing. Thereafter, that you invest in reproducing these resources, keeping those resources updated, and that you don't simply give up on content production after this. However, if you're a small business site, a small or medium business, you might think about only doing one or two of these a year. If you are a heavy content player, you're doing a lot of content marketing, content marketing is how you're investing in web traffic, I'd probably be considering these weekly or monthly at the least.

All right, everyone. Look forward to your experiences with the linkbait bump, and I will see you again next week for another edition of Whiteboard Friday. Take care.

Video transcription by Speechpad.com

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Measure Your Mobile Rankings and Search Visibility in Moz Analytics

Posted by jon.white

We have launched a couple of new things in Moz Pro that we are excited to share with you all: Mobile Rankings and a Search Visibility score. If you want, you can jump right in by heading to a campaign and adding a mobile engine, or keep reading for more details!

Track your mobile vs. desktop rankings in Moz Analytics

Mobilegeddon came and went with slightly less fanfare than expected, somewhat due to the vast 'Mobile Friendly' updates we all did at super short notice (nice work everyone!). Nevertheless, mobile rankings visibility is now firmly on everyone's radar, and will only become more important over time.

Now you can track your campaigns' mobile rankings for all of the same keywords and locations you are tracking on desktop.

For this campaign my mobile visibility is almost 20% lower than my desktop visibility and falling;
I can drill down to find out why

Clicking on this will take you into a new Engines tab within your Keyword Rankings page where you can find a more detailed version of this chart as well as a tabular view by keyword for both desktop and mobile. Here you can also filter by label and location.

Here I can see Search Visibility across engines including mobile;
in this case, for my branded keywords.

We have given an extra engine to all campaigns

We've given customers an extra engine for each campaign, increasing the number from 3 to 4. Use the extra slot to add the mobile engine and unlock your mobile data!

We will begin to track mobile rankings within 24 hours of adding to a campaign. Once you are set up, you will notice a new chart on your dashboard showing visibility for Desktop vs. Mobile Search Visibility.

Measure your Search Visibility score vs. competitors

The overall Search Visibility for my campaign

Along with this change we have also added a Search Visibility score to your rankings data. Use your visibility score to track and report on your overall campaign ranking performance, compare to your competitors, and look for any large shifts that might indicate penalties or algorithm changes. For a deeper drill-down into your data you can also segment your visibility score by keyword labels or locations. Visit the rankings summary page on any campaign to get started.

How is Search Visibility calculated?

Good question!

The Search Visibility score is the percentage of clicks we estimate you receive based on your rankings positions, across all of your keywords.

We take each ranking position for each keyword, multiply by an estimated click-thru-rate, and then take the average of all of your keywords. You can think of it as the percentage of your SERPs that you own. The score is expressed as a percentage, though scores of 100% would be almost impossible unless you are tracking keywords using the "site:" modifier. It is probably more useful to measure yourself vs. your competitors rather than focus on the actual score, but, as a rule of thumb, mid-40s is probably the realistic maximum for non-branded keywords.

Jeremy, our Moz Analytics TPM, came up with this metaphor:

Think of the SERPs for your keywords as villages. Each position on the SERP is a plot of land in SERP-village. The Search Visibility score is the average amount of plots you own in each SERP-village. Prime real estate plots (i.e., better ranking positions, like #1) are worth more. A complete monopoly of real estate in SERP-village would equate to a score of 100%. The Search Visibility score equates to how much total land you own in all SERP-villages.

Some neat ways to use this feature

Label and group your keywords, particularly when you add them – As visibility score is an average of all of your keywords, when you add or remove keywords from your campaign you will likely see fluctuations in the score that are unrelated to performance. Solve this by getting in the habit of labeling keywords when you add them. Then segment your data by these labels to track performance of specific keyword groups over time.

See how location affects your mobile rankings – Using the Engines tab in Keyword Rankings, use the filters to select just local keywords. Look for big differences between Mobile and Desktop where Google might be assuming local intent for mobile searches but not for desktop. Check out how your competitors perform for these keywords. Can you use this data?

From Editorial Calendars to SEO: Setting Yourself Up to Create Fabulous Content

Posted by Isla_McKetta

Quick note: This article is meant to apply to teams of all sizes, from the sole proprietor who spends all night writing their copy (because they're doing business during the day) to the copy team who occupies an entire floor and produces thousands of pieces of content per week. So if you run into a section that you feel requires more resources than you can devote just now, that's okay. Bookmark it and revisit when you can, or scale the step down to a more appropriate size for your team. We believe all the information here is important, but that does not mean you have to do everything right now.

If you thought ideation was fun, get ready for content creation. Sure, we've all written some things before, but the creation phase of content marketing is where you get to watch that beloved idea start to take shape.

Before you start creating, though, you want to get (at least a little) organized, and an editorial calendar is the perfect first step.

Editorial calendars

Creativity and organization are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they can feed each other. A solid schedule gives you and your writers the time and space to be wild and creative. If you're just starting out, this document may be sparse, but it's no less important. Starting early with your editorial calendar also saves you from creating content willy-nilly and then finding out months later that no one ever finished that pesky (but crucial) "About" page.

There's no wrong way to set up your editorial calendar, as long as it's meeting your needs. Remember that an editorial calendar is a living document, and it will need to change as a hot topic comes up or an author drops out.

There are a lot of different types of documents that pass for editorial calendars. You get to pick the one that's right for your team. The simplest version is a straight-up calendar with post titles written out on each day. You could even use a wall calendar and a Sharpie.

	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Title	The Five Colors of Oscar Fashion	12 Fabrics We're Watching for Fall	Is Charmeuse the New Corduroy?	Hot Right Now: Matching Your Handbag to Your Hatpin	Tea-length and Other Fab Vocab You Need to Know
Author	Ellie	James	Marta	Laila	Alex

Teams who are balancing content for different brands at agencies or other more complex content environments will want to add categories, author information, content type, social promo, and more to their calendars.

Truly complex editorial calendars are more like hybrid content creation/editorial calendars, where each of the steps to create and publish the content are indicated and someone has planned for how long all of that takes. These can be very helpful if the content you're responsible for crosses a lot of teams and can take a long time to complete. It doesn't matter if you're using Excel or a Google Doc, as long as the people who need the calendar can easily access it. Gantt charts can be excellent for this. Here's a favorite template for creating a Gantt chart in Google Docs (and they only get more sophisticated).

Complex calendars can encompass everything from ideation through writing, legal review, and publishing. You might even add content localization if your empire spans more than one continent to make sure you have the currency, date formatting, and even slang right.

Content governance

Governance outlines who is taking responsibility for your content. Who evaluates your content performance? What about freshness? Who decides to update (or kill) an older post? Who designs and optimizes workflows for your team or chooses and manages your CMS?

All these individual concerns fall into two overarching components to governance: daily maintenance and overall strategy. In the long run it helps if one person has oversight of the whole process, but the smaller steps can easily be split among many team members. Read this to take your governance to the next level.

Finding authors

The scale of your writing enterprise doesn't have to be limited to the number of authors you have on your team. It's also important to consider the possibility of working with freelancers and guest authors. Here's a look at the pros and cons of outsourced versus in-house talent.

	In-house authors	Guest authors and freelancers
Responsible to	You	Themselves
Paid by	You (as part of their salary)	You (on a per-piece basis)
Subject matter expertise	Broad but shallow	Deep but narrow
Capacity for extra work	As you wish	Show me the Benjamins
Turnaround time	On a dime	Varies
Communication investment	Less	More
Devoted audience	Smaller	Potentially huge

From that table, it might look like in-house authors have a lot more advantages. That's somewhat true, but do not underestimate the value of occasionally working with a true industry expert who has name recognition and a huge following. Whichever route you take (and there are plenty of hybrid options), it's always okay to ask that the writers you are working with be professional about communication, payment, and deadlines. In some industries, guest writers will write for links. Consider yourself lucky if that's true. Remember, though, that the final paycheck can be great leverage for getting a writer to do exactly what you need them to (such as making their deadlines).

Tools to help with content creation

So those are some things you need to have in place before you create content. Now's the fun part: getting started. One of the beautiful things about the Internet is that new and exciting tools crop up every day to help make our jobs easier and more efficient. Here are a few of our favorites.

Calendars

You can always use Excel or a Google Doc to set up your editorial calendar, but we really like Trello for the ability to gather a lot of information in one card and then drag and drop it into place. Once there are actual dates attached to your content, you might be happier with something like a Google Calendar.

Ideation and research

If you need a quick fix for ideation, turn your keywords into wacky ideas with Portent's Title Maker. You probably won't want to write to the exact title you're given (although "True Facts about Justin Bieber's Love of Pickles" does sound pretty fascinating…), but it's a good way to get loose and look at your topic from a new angle.

Once you've got that idea solidified, find out what your audience thinks about it by gathering information with Survey Monkey or your favorite survey tool. Or, use Storify to listen to what people are saying about your topic across a wide variety of platforms. You can also use Storify to save those references and turn them into a piece of content or an illustration for one. Don't forget that a simple social ask can also do wonders.

Format

Content doesn't have to be all about the words. Screencasts, Google+ Hangouts, and presentations are all interesting ways to approach content. Remember that not everyone's a reader. Some of your audience will be more interested in visual or interactive content. Make something for everyone.

Illustration

Don't forget to make your content pretty. It's not that hard to find free stock images online (just make sure you aren't violating someone's copyright). We like Morgue File, Free Images, and Flickr's Creative Commons. If you aren't into stock images and don't have access to in-house graphic design, it's still relatively easy to add images to your content. Pull a screenshot with Skitch or dress up an existing image with Pixlr. You can also use something like Canva to create custom graphics.

Don't stop with static graphics, though. There are so many tools out there to help you create gifs, quizzes and polls, maps, and even interactive timelines. Dream it, then search for it. Chances are whatever you're thinking of is doable.

Quality, not quantity

Mediocre content will hurt your cause

Less is more. That's not an excuse to pare your blog down to one post per month (check out our publishing cadence experiment), but it is an important reminder that if you're writing "How to Properly Install a Toilet Seat" two days after publishing "Toilet Seat Installation for Dummies," you might want to rethink your strategy.

The thing is, and I'm going to use another cliché here to drive home the point, you never get a second chance to make a first impression. Potential customers are roving the Internet right now looking for exactly what you're selling. And if what they find is an only somewhat informative article stuffed with keywords and awful spelling and grammar mistakes… well, you don't want that. Oh, and search engines think it's spammy too...

A word about copyright

We're not copyright lawyers, so we can't give you the ins and outs on all the technicalities. What we can tell you (and you already know this) is that it's not okay to steal someone else's work. You wouldn't want them to do it to you. This includes images. So whenever you can, make your own images or find images that you can either purchase the rights to (stock imagery) or license under Creative Commons.

It's usually okay to quote short portions of text, as long as you attribute the original source (and a link is nice). In general, titles and ideas can't be copyrighted (though they might be trademarked or patented). When in doubt, asking for permission is smart.

That said, part of the fun of the Internet is the remixing culture which includes using things like memes and gifs. Just know that if you go that route, there is a certain amount of risk involved.

Editing

Your content needs to go through at least one editing cycle by someone other than the original author. There are two types of editing, developmental (which looks at the underlying structure of a piece that happens earlier in the writing cycle) and copy editing (which makes sure all the words are there and spelled right in the final draft).

If you have a very small team or are in a rush (and are working with writers that have some skill), you can often skip the developmental editing phase. But know that an investment in that close read of an early draft is often beneficial to the piece and to the writer's overall growth.

Many content teams peer-edit work, which can be great. Other organizations prefer to run their work by a dedicated editor. There's no wrong answer, as long as the work gets edited.

Ensuring proper basic SEO

The good news is that search engines are doing their best to get closer and closer to understanding and processing natural language. So good writing (including the natural use of synonyms rather than repeating those keywords over and over and...) will take you a long way towards SEO mastery.

For that reason (and because it's easy to get trapped in keyword thinking and veer into keyword stuffing), it's often nice to think of your SEO check as a further edit of the post rather than something you should think about as you're writing.

But there are still a few things you can do to help cover those SEO bets. Once you have that draft, do a pass for SEO to make sure you've covered the following:

Use your keyword in your title
Use your keyword (or long-tail keyword phrase) in an H2
Make sure the keyword appears at least once (though not more than four times, especially if it's a phrase) in the body of the post
Use image alt text (including the keyword when appropriate)

Finding time to write when you don't have any

Writing (assuming you're the one doing the writing) can require a lot of energy—especially if you want to do it well. The best way to find time to write is to break each project down into little tasks. For example, writing a blog post actually breaks down into these steps (though not always in this order):

Research
Outline
Fill in outline
Rewrite and finish post
Write headline
SEO check
Final edit
Select hero image (optional)

So if you only have random chunks of time, set aside 15-30 minutes one day (when your research is complete) to write a really great outline. Then find an hour the next to fill that outline in. After an additional hour the following day, (unless you're dealing with a research-heavy post) you should have a solid draft by the end of day three.

The magic of working this way is that you engage your brain and then give it time to work in the background while you accomplish other tasks. Hemingway used to stop mid-sentence at the end of his writing days for the same reason.

Once you have that draft nailed, the rest of the steps are relatively easy (even the headline, which often takes longer to write than any other sentence, is easier after you've immersed yourself in the post over a few days).

Working with design/development

Every designer and developer is a little different, so we can't give you any blanket cure-alls for inter-departmental workarounds (aka "smashing silos"). But here are some suggestions to help you convey your vision while capitalizing on the expertise of your coworkers to make your content truly excellent.

Ask for feedback

From the initial brainstorm to general questions about how to work together, asking your team members what they think and prefer can go a long way. Communicate all the details you have (especially the unspoken expectations) and then listen.

If your designer tells you up front that your color scheme is years out of date, you're saving time. And if your developer tells you that the interactive version of that timeline will require four times the resources, you have the info you need to fight for more budget (or reassess the project).

Check in

Things change in the design and development process. If you have interim check-ins already set up with everyone who's working on the project, you'll avoid the potential for nasty surprises at the end. Like finding out that no one has experience working with that hot new coding language you just read about and they're trying to do a workaround that isn't working.

Proofread

Your job isn't done when you hand over the copy to your designer or developer. Not only might they need help rewriting some of your text so that it fits in certain areas, they will also need you to proofread the final version. Accidents happen in the copy-and-paste process and there's nothing sadder than a really beautiful (and expensive) piece of content that wraps up with a typo:

Know when to fight for an idea

Conflict isn't fun, but sometimes it's necessary. The more people involved in your content, the more watered down the original idea can get and the more roadblocks and conflicting ideas you'll run into. Some of that is very useful. But sometimes you'll get pulled off track. Always remember who owns the final product (this may not be you) and be ready to stand up for the idea if it's starting to get off track.

We're confident this list will set you on the right path to creating some really awesome content, but is there more you'd like to know? Ask us your questions in the comments.

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Seth's Blog : On adding a zero

On adding a zero

Just about everyone can imagine what it would be like to add 10% more to their output, to be 10% better or faster.

Many people can envision what their world would be like if they were twice as good, if the work was twice as insightful or useful or urgent.

But ten times?

It's really difficult to imagine what you would do with ten times as many employees, or ten times the assets or ten times the audience.

And yet imagining it is often the first step to getting there.

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joi, 30 iulie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Which Will It Be: United States of Europe OR United States of Germany?
GDP Bounce: Disappointing Mixed Bag of Expectations and Revisions; Where to From Here?
Police State "Ministry of Truth" Hits Spain; Man Fined for Calling Police "Slackers" on Facebook

Which Will It Be: United States of Europe OR United States of Germany?

Posted: 30 Jul 2015 02:26 PM PDT

Socialists Seek to Outvote Germany

In the wake of the near-Grexit, France and Italy seek more powers for the European Commission (EC).

And both countries want another parliament with more power. Their unstated goal is to create a United States of Europe where socialists would outvote the Germans.

Germany Seeks to Prevent Being Outvoted

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has a completely different idea: Schäuble Outlines Plan to Limit European Commission Powers.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is proposing to strip the European Commission of some of its core oversight powers in an effort to avoid politicising EU decision-making at a time when the executive body has touted its new partisan role in Europe.

The European Commission has quasi-judicial authority over some of the most sensitive Europe-wide decision making, particularly in the area of merger approvals and antitrust monitoring, powers that could be moved to independent bodies under Mr Schäuble's plan.

Berlin has also long called for the eurozone's budget rules to be triggered automatically when a country breaches EU debt and deficit ceilings, and has complained bitterly that France has been given repeated waivers by the commission despite violating those limits for years — waivers some have viewed as politically motivated.

François Hollande, the French president, pressed for the eurozone overhaul almost immediately after the Greek deal was reached and, in a recent interview in the Financial Times, Italian finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan called for a rapid move to a full political union.

However, the new ideas being advanced have highlighted the differences between eurozone countries on the way forward, particularly between the French and Italian camp and Berlin.

Both Paris and Rome are emphasising a pooling of resources, either in the form of a eurozone budget or a common EU unemployment scheme, while Berlin is focusing on giving the eurozone's rules more bite and less interference from political forces.

Battle Line

The battle lines are clear: Stricter Rules and Less EC vs. Fewer Rules and More Politics.

Let's not kid ourselves here. This is not an "effort to avoid politicising EU decision-making". Schäuble is scared to death about what the socialists have in mind.

If there is a new parliament, France, Spain, Italy, and Portugal will all seek to "pool resources", the same general idea as "transfer German savings for politicians to spend elsewhere".

Instead, Schäuble seeks "independent" bodies. Let's translate that as well. "Independent" really means "appointed by and to the liking of Germany".

Because politics can change, Schäuble also seeks a fallback mechanism: "budget rules to be triggered automatically".

Of course, France, Italy, Spain, etc., want no part of automated budget rules; they want to vote on rules because they know they can collectively outvote Germany any time they want. Here are the French and Italian proposals:

United States of Europe Proposals

France - July 20: Hollande Pleads for Creation of Eurozone Government; United States of Europe?
Italy - July 28: Italy's Finance Minister Joins "United States of Europe" Parade; Germany's "5 Wise Men" Argue for Grexit

Which Will It Be?

Let me summarize the debate with a question: Which will it be:

United States of Europe
United States of Germany

Please think before you vote. The answer could be neither. I purposely left out a key choice: The eurozone may still break apart.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

GDP Bounce: Disappointing Mixed Bag of Expectations and Revisions; Where to From Here?

Posted: 30 Jul 2015 11:54 AM PDT

This morning, the BEA reported Second Quarter GDP was 2.3%.

2.3% was at the low end of the Consensus Range of 1.9% to 3.5%. On the plus side, first quarter was revised way higher.

Revisions

First quarter 2015 revised up from -0.2% to +0.6%
2013 GDP revised lower from 2.2% to 1.5%
2012 GDP revised lower from 2.3% to 2.2%

Evolution of First Quarter 2015 GDP

+0.2% Initial
-0.7% Revised
-0.2% Revised
+0.6% Revised

GDP is the most lagging of all indicators. By the time all the revisions are in (years later), no one even cares.

I suspect after the "final" revision, first quarter 2015 GDP will be back in the negative column, with all of 2015 revised lower as well.

Don't hold your breath waiting.

Weak First Half

Meanwhile, the first half of the year looks pretty weak.

Last year, a first quarter GDP of -0.9% was followed by a huge second quarter surge to +4.6%, sustained with a strong third quarter +4.3%.

In comparison, this bounce was feeble.

Where to From Here?

If retail sales do not pick up, and especially if auto sales slide as I suspect they will, third quarter will shock the economists who believe this economy is strong and getting stronger.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Police State "Ministry of Truth" Hits Spain; Man Fined for Calling Police "Slackers" on Facebook

Posted: 30 Jul 2015 02:03 AM PDT

On July 1, the Spanish Government went to "Full Police State", with enactment of law forbidding dissent and unauthorized photos of law enforcement.

Spain's officially a police state now. On July 1st, its much-protested "gag" law went into effect, instantly making criminals of those protesting the new law. Among the many new repressive stipulations is a €30,000-€600,000 fine for "unauthorized protests," which can be combined for maximum effect with a €600-€300,000 fine for "disrupting public events."

This horrible set of statutes has arisen from Spain's position as a flashpoint for anti-austerity protests, the European precursor to the Occupy Wall Street movement. Fines, fines and more fines await anyone who refuses to treat authority with the respect it's forcibly requiring citizens to show it.

The law also extends its anti-protest punishments to social media, where users can face similar fines for doing nothing more than encouraging or organizing a protest. Failing to present ID when commanded is another fine. And then there's this:

Showing a "lack of respect" to those in uniform or failing to assist security forces in the prevention of public disturbances could result in an individual fine of between €600 and €30,000.

A clause in the wide-ranging legislation that critics have dubbed the "gag law" provides for fines of up to 30,000 euros ($33,000) for "unauthorized use" of images of working police that could identify them, endanger their security or hinder them from doing their jobs.

Man Fined for Calling Police "Slackers"

We now have our first test case of this inane law.

The Independent reports Spanish man fined up to €600 under new gag laws for calling police 'slackers' in Facebook post.

A young man in Spain has been fined for calling the police lazy in a Facebook post – becoming the first citizen to fall foul of a series of controversial new "gag" laws.

The 27-year-old man, identified only as Eduardo D in national media reports, described the local police force as a "class of slackers" in a series of online posts which he described as humorous.

According to the Spanish daily El Pais, Eduardo made three comments on Facebook criticising the money spent on police facilities in his town of Güímar, Tenerife.

He also accused local authorities of misappropriating a public building, and in a third post suggested local police were so lazy they might as well have "a hammock and a swimming pool" at each station.

Eduardo made the comments on 22 July, according to the Spanish edition of The Local, and that afternoon he received a visit from police accusing him of "making comments on social media that showed a lack of respect and consideration for Güímar's local police".

He now faces a fine of between €100 and €600, and told El Pais he had appointed a lawyer to fight the "madness" of the penalisation process.

One of the first uses of the nationwide so-called "gag laws", Eduardo's case comes amid a backdrop of a range of bizarre new laws across Spanish municipalities following the sweeping success of left-wing groups at elections two months ago.

They included the introduction of a compulsory siesta in the town of Ador near Valencia, attempts to limit tourists only to the most popular destinations in Barcelona, and the setting-up of a so-called "Ministry of Truth" in Madrid.

Is the US next?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Three things that make CEOs stupid

Three things that make CEOs stupid

I sat through an endless presentation by the CEO of a fast-growing company. He was doing fine for half an hour, but then, when his time was up, he chose to spend 45 minutes more on his final slide, haranguing and invecting, jumping from topic to topic and basically bringing the entire group to its knees in frustration.

Power, of course, is the first problem. When things are going fairly well, the CEO has a ton of power, and often, that power makes things appear to work, even when they're not the right thing to do for the long-term. As a result, there's no market that is correcting the bad decisions, at least not right now.

Exposure is the second problem. Once a company gets big enough, the CEO spends his time with investors and senior executives, not with people who actually invent or deliver products and services, and not with customers. Another form of not getting the right feedback, because the people being pleased aren't the right ones.

The truth is the final and most endemic problem. Employees incorrectly (in many cases) believe that the boss doesn't want to hear from them, doesn't want constructive feedback. Everyone else has a boss, and built into the nature of boss-ness is the idea that someone is going to tell you what's not working. But we fall into the trap of believing that just because the CEO isn't assigned a boss, he doesn't need or want one.

A stupid CEO can coast for a long time if the systems are good. But a stupid CEO is always wasting opportunities, because being smarter usually leads to doing better. Plus, they're a lot more fun to work for.

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miercuri, 29 iulie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Selfie" Fashion Trends: Cheap Dresses and "Rentabag"; Mish Handbag Tips

Posted: 29 Jul 2015 04:56 PM PDT

Impact of the "Selfie"

Are you into Facebook, Instagrams, and "Selfies" (taking lots of pictures of yourself and sharing them instantly)?

I'm not but, but in my travels I see lots of it. The popularity of sending "selfies" has even influenced retail sales and women's fashion. After all, one cannot be seen in the same outfit too often!

Here's an amusing video that discusses the impact of the "selfie".

In the above video, FT's Andrea Felsted visits online fashion retailer Asos to see how it is adapting its business model in the era of the selfie.

Link if video does not play: How the Selfie Is Shaking Up Retail.

Cheap Dresses and Rentabag

Allegedly it's a faux pas to be seen too often with the same bag. So enter the "rentabag". I had to look this up. There's a huge selection of choices.

Bagborroworsteal: Rent Luxury Bags Online - Huge Selection of Designer Bags‎ - Get A New Bag Every Month
Supursestyle: Rent designer handbags at affordable prices
Bagdujour: Handbags for rent - Wear a Beautiful Designer Bag Today Authentic, Affordable & Convenient
Renttherunaway: Fashion accessories, jewelry, handbags, and wraps for women
Armgen: The Netflix of handbags. We rent trendy designer handbags at a fraction of the cost!
Rentmeahandbag: Rene Caovilla Shoes Sandals
Lovemeandleaveme: Buy designer bags outright, hire bags or use payment plan options
Bagtropolis: Buy, layaway and rent borrow luxury pre-owned authentic designer handbags, bags, purses, pocketbooks at affordable prices, including Balenciaga, Celine
Luxurylana: Rent from your favorite designer handbag online
Monluxe: MonLuxe the european bag and jewelry rental company. Delivery in 24 hours in France, Benelux, Germany Italy, Spain, Portugal

Mercy!

There's even a site promoting Make Extra Money Renting Handbags and Purses.

Really Expensive Bags

$100,000 for a bag? That is the full price though, not a rental. Phew!

For comparison purposes, who wouldn't want this "beautiful" Valentino Leopard Calf Hair Rockstud Trapeze Bag, bargain-basement priced at $3,995?

How about this trendy Fendi Baguette Bag Bugs Shoulder Bag "beauty" for a mere $2,610?

$100,000 Bags Totally Worth It?

Those prices seem shocking, but the PurseBlog gives 8 Reasons Spending $1,000 or More on a Bag is Totally Worth It.

Real Reason for $100,000 Bags

For those looking for the real reason behind $100,000 handbags that sometimes look rather ordinary and sometimes purposely gaudy, blame the Fed and central banks in general.

The income inequality the Fed and politicians rail against comes directly from middle class killing policies of the Fed and government officials.

What Your Money Rents

Who in their right mind wants to pay $300 a month to rent this ordinary brown bag?

For a "mere" $45 a month you can rent these sunglasses.

Designer Bags

BagDuJour offers the following designers for rent.

Alexander McQueen
Anna Sui
Anthony Luciano
Anya Hindmarch
Burberry
Charlotte Olympia
Chloe
Diane von Furstenberg
Dolce & Gabbana
Edie Parker
Emilio Pucci
Ermanno Scervino
Fendi
Givenchy
Gucci
Isabel Marant
Jimmy Choo
Kate Spade
Kotur
Louis Vuitton
Marni
Mary Katrantzou
Michael Kors
Miu Miu
Piero Guidi
Pierre Hardy
Prada
Proenza Schouler
Roberto Cavalli
Saint Laurent
Stella McCartney
Tiffany
Valentino
Versace
Versus Versace
Victoria Beckham

With so many "designers": Would anyone really know if you had a designer bag or something similar?

One final question: Is it really millennials renting this stuff for selfie instagrams, or do the bulk of these rentals go to people pretending to be youthful and rich?

Designer Bags For Cheap

I did some searching and found some genuine leather bags that look nice (at least to me). Here's a couple from DesignerHandbagRescue.

That's a Coach Bag (I have no idea how popular that brand is or isn't) but I like the clean looks of it. It retails for $235, but went for $89.95 used but in near-perfect condition.

Sorry ladies, sold out.

Here's a Michael Kors Rhea Medium Zip Shoulder Bag for just under my top-end splurge limit. It retails for $268 but you can still get it for $124.95.

With that, my fashion preferences are now exposed and subject to immense criticism from all my female readers (as well as any males who happen to like purses).

By the way, I get nothing for promoting any company mentioned in this article. I Just decided to see what I could get and stumbled on that site.

I suspect there are numerous nice-looking purses under $50, and even $300+ designer purses for close to or under $100.

Mish Practical Tips

Buy a bag, don't spend more than $50, be creative, and hardly anyone will know it's not a designer bag.
If you really want to splurge, spend $125 or less for designer bags.

Finally, if you select option number 1 and someone asks about your bag, just tell them it's a soon-to-be-very-popular, genuine Mishabag^TM.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Fed Sheds No Light, Plays Charades with Media; Tiptoe Balancing Act

Posted: 29 Jul 2015 11:47 AM PDT

Fed Says Little, Sheds No Light

If the Fed had a clue as to what it will do in September, it likely would have said so. Instead, it reiterated the same hash we have been hearing for years.

Here is the complete text of today's FOMC Press Release.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey‑based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Charades

I suspect the Fed is concerned about retail sales, sentiment, housing, China, Greece, oil, Canada, the US dollar, and a host of other things.

At this stage in the charade game, the Fed cannot possibly come out and say any of that. Nor can the Fed hint at a September hike, even though it wants to, because retail sales may continue to slump and auto sales could easily collapse.

The Fed expects "further improvements" in the labor market, but what if all these inane minimum wages hikes kill jobs.

High consumer sentiment has not led to higher retail sales as the Fed seems to believe it would (See Sentiment Measures vs. Retail Spending: Clueless Clues and Random Noise).

Tiptoe Balancing Act

To avoid saying anything that might be seriously wrong, the Fed says the risks are "nearly balanced" then disproves that with lovey-dovey hogwash about "keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."

I just happen to have the right musical clip for the Fed's tiptoe charade game.

Link if video does not play: Tiny Tim Tiptoe Through Tulips

No doubt you can stand no more than 30 seconds of that, which is also about how long a knowledgeable reader can stand the Fed's charade game playing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

vineri, 31 iulie 2015

Video Transcription

So let's take a look.

Why does this happen?

How do you achieve this?

Track your mobile vs. desktop rankings in Moz Analytics

We have given an extra engine to all campaigns

Measure your Search Visibility score vs. competitors

How is Search Visibility calculated?

Some neat ways to use this feature

Editorial calendars

Content governance

Finding authors

Tools to help with content creation

Calendars

Ideation and research

Format

Illustration

Quality, not quantity

Mediocre content will hurt your cause

A word about copyright

Editing

Ensuring proper basic SEO

Finding time to write when you don't have any

Working with design/development

Ask for feedback

Check in

Proofread

Know when to fight for an idea

joi, 30 iulie 2015

miercuri, 29 iulie 2015

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