vineri, 4 mai 2012

Seth's Blog : Reconsidering decisions

Reconsidering decisions

There are two common mistakes here:

Frequently reconsidering decisions that ought to be left alone. Once you enroll in college, it is both painful and a waste to spend the first five minutes of every morning wondering if you should drop out or not. Once you've established a marketing plan, it doesn't pay to reevaluate it every time your shop is empty. And once you've committed to a partnership, it's silly to reconsider that choice every time you have a disagreement.

In addition to wasting time, the frequent reconsideration sabotages the effort your subconscious is trying to make in finding ways to make the current plan work. Spending that creative energy wondering about the plan merely subtracts from the passion you could put into making it succeed.

On the other hand, particularly in organizations, failure to reconsider long-held decisions is just as wasteful. Should you really be in that business? Should this person still be working here? Is that really the best policy?

Jay Levinson used to say that you should keep your ad campaign even after your best customers, your wife and your partner get bored with it. Change it when the accountant says it's time. And Zig Ziglar likes to talk about the pilot on his way from New York to Dallas. Wind blows the plane off course after a few minutes. The right thing to do is adjust the course and head on. The wrong thing to do is head back to New York and start over (or to reconsider flying to Dallas at all).



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AdSense Newsletter - May 2012

bubbles
May 2012 Publisher ID ca-pub-1492172262972996

Dear publisher,

We understand that as you create content for your site, you're looking to maximize your revenue from all of your ads, no matter how they're sold. In this edition's Tip of the Month, we'd like to introduce you to DFP Small Business, Google's free ad serving solution for publishers who are serving ads from multiple sources. You'll also learn about:
  • Taking control with the new Ad review center
  • Finding out how to go Mobile
  • Connecting with AdSense on Google+
  • Leveraging the redesigned AdSense crawler errors page
  • Creating high quality sites with Webmaster Guidelines
  • Using the AdSense Management API
Sincerely,

Jamie
The Google AdSense team

Tip of the Month

Optimize your ad serving with DFP Small Business

Whether you're already using multiple sources of ad revenue on your site or are only in the planning stage of doing so, DFP Small Business, Google's free hosted ad serving solution, can help you manage your growing online advertising business. With our new online tool, you can find out if DFP Small Business is the right product for you:

  Go to the tool  
DFP Small Business allows you to manage all your ad inventory from one simple interface and offers rich features such as inventory forecasting, detailed reporting and multi-dimensional targeting. You can also use it to maximize your revenue by enabling real-time competition between AdSense and your other ad networks. Find out more about DFP Small Business in our video below:


Updates

More control over the ads on your site

The Ad review center is now more powerful and allows you to review all ad types after they've run on your pages, whether they're contextually-targeted, placement-targeted, or interest-based. Make decisions on individual ads and block multiple ads at once to help you save time. Log in and get started with the new Ad review center today.



Connect with AdSense on Google+

Follow us on our new AdSense Google+ page, where you'll find AdSense updates and gain access to exclusive Hangouts with the AdSense team. These live video chat sessions will give you the opportunity to share your product feedback with our Product Managers and ask your questions to our optimization specialists. Join the conversation and also meet other AdSense publishers from around the world to share your experiences.



AdSense crawler error redesign

The redesigned AdSense crawler errors page provides you with accurate and actionable information to optimize your site even more effectively. Some publishers have seen a revenue increase of up to 400% after they fixed their crawler errors. To see the new crawler errors page in your account, visit your 'Home' tab, then click on 'Account settings' and navigate to the 'Crawler errors' section.



AdSense Management API for developers

If you're writing your own software and would like to retrieve your AdSense reporting data directly, the AdSense Management API is what you've been looking for! The API is available to all AdSense publishers, and lets you retrieve lists of ad clients, ad units, channels, as well as generate custom reports directly from your applications.

For more information, browse the API forum, or join the regular office hours.



Missed last month's newsletter? Read it now!
Mobile Ads

Find out how to go Mobile

With an increasing mobile internet usage worldwide, it's getting more and more important to consider mobile users' needs when designing your site. To help you optimize your content for mobile, we've recently launched a new suite of tools on howtogomo.com where you can:
  • See how you rate - Use the GoMoMeter to analyze your site's mobile user experience.
  • Start planning - Download the GoMo Publisher Guide for mobile best practices.
  • Find a partner - Learn about vendors who can help with your implementation.
As part of our ongoing GoMo initiative, we're also hosting a number of webinars. For more information on those webinars and the latest news around mobile ads visit our Google Mobile Ads Blog.


Program Policies

Top tips for creating high quality sites

One of the most frequent questions that we get from publishers is how to improve their sites' performance on Google's search index.

In keeping with the theme of creating high-quality content, we've written a blog post of how adhering to the webmaster guidelines can help the overall potential of your site and maximize traffic and revenue for you.





More about AdSense:

Inside AdSense Blog

AdSense Google+ Page

AdSense Forum

AdSense on YouTube


© 2012 Google Inc. 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043.

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joi, 3 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Comments from Brazil on Brazil and China: Nonperforming Loans Soar, Recession in Brazil Arrived, China will Follow

Posted: 03 May 2012 08:46 AM PDT

This morning I received an email from Otavio who lives in Brazil. Otavio writes ...
Hi Mish,

Hello from Brazil. Much of what we both expected has begun to occur in Brazil since we exchanged emails last year. The economy has slowed down greatly. We are on the brink of a recession here, if not in recession already.

Nonperforming loans have risen pretty much on banks' balance sheets causing bank stocks to plunge. Check out ITUB US Equity on Bloomberg. The Brazilian middle class is very much sunk in debt.

The BACEN (Brazilian Central Bank) has cut overnight rates from 12 percent to 9 percent, but the market expects at least another 100 bps cut in the next two months. These aggressive rate cuts, plus massive interventions in the FX market to sell Brazilian REAL, have weakened the REAL from 1.70 to 1.93 per USD.

The government has also instructed public banks to lower their lending rates. It's our own Brazilian version of QE here.

However, the economy is showing signs of weakness. Just today, Industrial Production came out at -0.5 percent but economists predicted an increase of 1.2 percent.

Our economy has been strongly correlated with China's in the last decade. If we are this close to a recession in Brazil, the slowdown in China will be far more than most expect.

Regards Otavio
Brazilian Banks Drop on Delinquency Concern

A quick check of ITUB on Bloomberg turned up Bovespa Declines as Brazilian Banks Drop on Delinquency Concern
Apr 25, 2012 3:42 PM CT

The Bovespa stock index declined as Itau Unibanco SA (ITUB) led Brazilian banks lower after it said it expects losses from bad loans to rise in the second quarter.

Itau, Latin America's biggest bank by market value, was the worst performer on the MSCI Brazil/Financials Index, which fell the most among 10 industry groups. OGX Petroleo (OGXP3) & Gas Participacoes SA gained the most in four months after it said an oil field off the coast of Rio de Janeiro was declared commercially viable.

The Bovespa dropped 0.4 percent to 61,750.38 at the close in Sao Paulo. The real weakened 0.1 percent to 1.8800 per U.S. dollar at 5:32 p.m. local time.

Itau expects to spend as much as 6.4 billion reais in bad - loan provisions in the second quarter, up from 6 billion reais in the first three months of 2012, according to a regulatory filing today. Banco Bradesco SA (BBDC4)'s delinquency rate may rise 10 basis points in the second quarter, executive director Luiz Carlos Angelotti said in a conference call yesterday.

"These alerts from banks regarding expectations of rising delinquency rates really scared investors," Pedro Paulo Silveira, chief economist at TOV Corretora, said by telephone from Sao Paulo. "Considering interest rates are decreasing and the economy is slowing down, banks may see their revenue fall as well."
ITUB Chart



Brazil Manufacturing PMI in Contraction

Inquiring minds are investigating the HSBC Brazil Manufacturing PMI™ published May 2.
Both output and new orders fall for first time in 2012 so far



Andre Loes, Chief Economist, Brazil at HSBC said: "The HSBC Manufacturing PMI index fell to a four month low of 49.3 in April, from 51.1 in March. This was the first PMI manufacturing reading below 50 in 2012, signalling a contraction of activity in the industrial sector.

Broken down, numbers show a broad-based decline in industrial activity, with all components falling below 50, except for both input and output prices which accelerated relative to one month ago (and with output prices reaching the highest level of growth since May 2011). Concurrently, inflationary pressures should remain a source of concern, despite the string of benign CPI readings earlier this year."
If Brazil weakens further as I expect, the country is already in recession. Moreover, the much beloved BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and emerging markets in general will not be good hiding places.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


When All Else Fails, Hope For More Stimulus

Posted: 03 May 2012 07:34 AM PDT

Eurozone Markit Final Manufacturing PMI numbers were released yesterday. The results, as I warned months in advance, were decidedly not pretty.

  • Final Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 34-month low of 45.9 
  • Production declines across big-four economies for first time in the year-to-date 
  • Weak demand and falling intra-Eurozone trade volumes hurting both output and employment



The weak PMI number reflected a drop in Eurozone manufacturing production for the second consecutive month, as new order inflows declined at the fastest pace since December. Austria was the only nation to see production rise in April.

Manufacturers reported weak demand from both domestic and export clients – with intra-Eurozone trade volumes also heavily impacted. This hurt even German manufacturers, who saw production fall for the first time in 2012-to-date as an accelerated rate of decline in new export volumes reverberated through the sector.

Further causes for concern were sharper rates of decline in output at Italian and Spanish manufacturers, plus an ongoing steep downturn in Greece. Meanwhile, French manufacturing output contracted at a weaker pace than that seen in March.
Finally Seeing the Light (Sort Of)

Once again the comments from Markit Economists are amusing. 
Even German manufacturing output showed a renewed decline, attributed by many firms to weak demand from southern Europe. As such, it is hard to see where growth will come from in coming months, unless export demand picks up strongly from countries outside of the Eurozone.

"The ECB's latest forecast of merely a slight contraction of GDP this year is therefore already looking optimistic. However, with the survey also showing inflationary pressures to have waned, the door may be opening for further stimulus."
Note the word "latest". Months ago, Markit said no recession, then no recession in Germany, then short recession. For some reason Markit only mentioned the ECB's latest forecasts and none of their own.

With that highlight in red (emphasis mine), Markit chief economist Chris Williamson finally got it right (had he only stopped right there). Instead, he is now hoping for more stimulus as if it would matter.

Here's a hint: it won't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Berkeley Ridiculously Automated Dorm (BRAD) Video

Posted: 02 May 2012 08:38 PM PDT



At the University of California at Berkeley, freshman Derek Low carried out a mission to create what he called "the most ridiculously automated dorm room in the school ever." The result is "BRAD" (Berkeley Ridiculously Automated Dorm), which employs motion sensors to detect when someone enters or exits the room, as well as the ability to control the lights, window shades, and music via voice controls and mobile apps. An emergency red "party mode" button was also provided, which closes the shades, turns on dance music and replaces the overhead lights with flashing neon lighting and strobes.


Via: Techcrunch


Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites Graywolf's SEO Blog

Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites Graywolf's SEO Blog


Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites

Posted: 02 May 2012 09:20 AM PDT

Post image for Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites

I recently wrote a story How Brick and Mortar Stores Can Use eCommerce to Drive Sales about tips that eCommerce stores can use to drive traffic to their brick and mortar locations. However, what really needs to happen is offline stores and small businesses need to grow up and  stop hiding in the corner from online commerce bogeyman. They need to give up their antiquated who moved my cheese mentality. It’s a fact that consumers’ preference for eCommerce stores will continue to grow, smart phone and tablet shopping will continue to rise, and merchants who don’t recognize this trend will fail. The first will be the small local stores followed by strip mall tenants but, at the end of the day, no one including big box retailers like Best Buy is immune. No one is too big to fail.

So what do small local businesses going to do to need to compete:

offline stores  and small businesses need to grow up and stop hiding in the corner from online commerce bogeyman…
 Make sure your website is mobile friendly. In fact, if you don’t have a mobile website, IMHO you need to make having a mobile website your number 1 priority. You need to do it properly with a one URL implementation strategy. Mobile subdomains and mobile sub folders create more trouble down the road than the time you save at the beginning, so don’t go down that route. If you do you’ll be contacting me–or someone like me–to clean up the mess you inadvertently created because you wanted to save a little time in getting up-to-speed as fast as possible.

Your website has to be more than a 20 page brochure-ware website. You can’t show up to the Indy 500 in a stock, off the floor Toyota Camry and expect to compete or ever win. Be smart. “Find your spike” that makes you stand out from everyone else and embrace it:

Don’t strive to be a balanced, well rounded merchant; embrace your uniqueness and the customers who are looking for it. Studies have shown that people on dating sites who embrace their unique beauty and set themselves apart from what is considered traditionally attractive do much better at finding dates and long term partners.

If your website isn’t important enough for you to pay attention to it, why do you think Google’s ranking algorithm will compute that you deserve to show up in a search engine result… 
Do a content audit on a regular basis. Create as much evergreen content as possible and update evergreen content as needed. Engage in predictive SEO spot and jump on trends. Write, add, build, and create new content on a regular basis. Don’t add content to meet a quota; add content because you have something of value to add to the conversation. If your website isn’t important enough for you to pay attention to it and help it nurture and grow, why do you think Google’s ranking algorithm will magically compute that you deserve to show up in a search engine result … for anything.

Engage in social media … regularly. Social media is a time consuming aspect of marketing. Unfortunately, small businesses can’t afford to ignore it anymore. You don’t need to spend all day on Twitter: look for tools that allow you to spend less time on social media sites and be more effective with the time you do spend.

Don’t get in a position where you are dependent on Google to survive. Diversify your income stream and pipeline for traffic, leads, and customers. While I’m a zero inbox type of person, and creating and sending out email messages fills me with overwhelming level of self loathing, the depths of which you will never understand, I firmly grasp that it’s a necessary evil to survive. It’s simply impossible to make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. Just do it in a way that adds value for your customers and doesn’t clog up their inbox with useless drivel. By building a firm social media fan base, cultivating your customer engagement, and implementing a proactive outbound marketing channel strategy, you will be sending Google the social validation they are looking for, and you’ll be immune to Panda Updates, Penguin updates, or whatever naming structure Google finally gives its algorithm changes.

photo credit: BigStockPhoto/Olly2

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Why Offline Stores and Small Businesses Need to Embrace Online Shopping and Build Better Websites

Does Your Small Business Need a Facebook and Twitter Social Media Account

Posted: 04 Apr 2012 09:50 AM PDT

Post image for Does Your Small Business Need a Facebook and Twitter Social Media Account

It’s 2012 and social media and social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook are constantly mentioned on mainstream media, news and entertainment websites, and broadcast programs. Print ads for everything from movies to toothpaste have those ubiquitous little Facebook and Twitter logos, hashtags, and often special social media vanity URLs. The question is does your business need to be involved in social media, is it worth the time, what’s the benefit, and is there ROI somewhere at the end of the tunnel?

At the current time, in my opinion, there simply isn’t an excuse for your company not to be involved in social media. In 2011 SEOMoz did a study and showed social media helped with SEO efforts. In early 2012 Search Engine Land showed that 20% of all searches had a author icon result in it (see How to Create a Google Author Profile for more information). With an enhanced listing, if you aren’t using social media as tool to get a rich snippet in the SERPs and your competition is, you are playing from a disadvantage.

if you aren’t using social media as tool to get a rich snippet in the SERPs and your competition is, you are playing from a disadvantage…
 Smart marketers have realized SEO and Search engines are only one channel of an overall marketing strategy. You should be using email marketing, print, SEO, and social media combined to make your website immune to algorithm updates. IMHO this social validation is now part of Google’s algorithm and, if you aren’t engaging in more than one type of marketing, Google is going to notice it–or, more to the point, not notice it–and your website will suffer.

It’s not simply a matter of having social profiles on all the prominent and important social websites. It’s being involved that counts too. Use social services like KnowEm to secure your profiles to prevent any trademark issues. Test and try each of the platforms to see where your customers are, where you get the most engagement, where you get the most traffic, where you get the most links, and, most importantly, where you get the most sales. Once you know which channel is most effective, interlink the rest. Crosspost from your Twitter profile to Facebook if that’s what works for you. If Facebook works better, crosspost to Twitter. If Pinterest is what drives your traffic, then focus your efforts on creating the most crazy awesome wedding board you can create. As Steve Martin says “Be So Good They Can’t Ignore You.”

Unless you happen to be in a very specialized niche, chances are good that Facebook or Twitter is where you’ll find most of your audience. Google Plus is ghost town unless you are chasing Web 2.0 weenies (or Google employees … yeah I went there). If you get traffic from other social sites and want to enable cross posting, look into services like If This Then That to try to automate the process and remove the grunt manual labor. Automate your primary feed and, with cross posting and scheduled posts from Hootsuite and/or Bufferapp, you’ll be spending less than a hour a day publishing on social media. Thanks to services like Tweriod, you’ll have some idea when those ideal times are without having to be chained to your desk to reach your optimal audience. Just remember that customer service is now an integral part of social media. Use it as a contact starting point to take the discussion offline or out of the public eye whenever possible. It’s not that you’re hiding; it’s that you don’t need to broadcast every part of every customer interaction.

In my opinion, having your links pass through social media channels, whether the links are nofollowed or not, creating the corresponding user data, and developing trusted author accounts are the three biggest areas you have the most to gain from by using social media. In my opinion, those are the three areas you should spend your time on.

photo credit: BigStockPhoto/iofoto.com

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  5. Directory Journal - Get permanent deep links in a search engine friendly directory
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Does Your Small Business Need a Facebook and Twitter Social Media Account