luni, 18 februarie 2013

Seth's Blog : Planting, harvesting and your fair share

 

Planting, harvesting and your fair share

When there is scarcity, we worry a lot about getting our fair share—what goes to him doesn't go to me. The harvest becomes fraught with danger and competition.

When we worry more about planting, though, sharing the harvest gets a lot less complex.

Plant enough seeds and the scarcity eases. In fact, if you plant enough, you'll never have to think twice about the harvesting.


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duminică, 17 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Rebalancing in Spain Stage Two: 20,000 Iberia Airline Workers to Strike, 1,222 flights Cancelled in First five Days

Posted: 17 Feb 2013 06:44 PM PST

The "rebalancing" in Spain continues along the lines I have suggested, not as suggested by economists and those who think there is guaranteed future of the eurozone.

Via Google translate from El Economista, please consider Strike by Iberia Starts Monday
The nearly 20,000 workers are called from Iberia to strike on Monday in the first week of the 15 days of strikes called by unions CCOO, Asetma, USE, SITCPLA and CTA-Flight, which has forced airlines group to cancel a total of 1,222 flights in its first five days.

The 24-hour strikes, affecting ground staff and cabin crew (TCP), but which are called all employees of the airline, will be held from Monday 18 to Friday 22 February, from Monday 4 to Friday 8 March and Monday 18 (a public holiday in some ACs) to 22 next month. The pilots' union will join the strike in March.

Furthermore, the six unions representing 93% of the staff have organized concentrations for 18 and 22 February in all Spanish airports, coinciding with the start of the 15-day strike.

The Minister of Development, Ana Pastor, reiterated on Friday to unions and the management of Iberia make an "effort" to avoid the strike.

At a meeting in Development with representatives of both sides, Pastor said the government has "no authority" to intervene in the management of a private company, but said he does have the "legal obligation" and "direct responsibility" for ensuring connectivity in Spain, so it would intervene in the event that gave a "serious disruption of transportation", as it has done on other occasions.

Iberia has insisted that the 15-day strike "worsen" the situation of the company, so it has appealed to the groups to call off the strikes, considering that they only hurt customers, reputation and all his employed.

The airline has launched a contingency plan to cater to all passengers during the strike days and has flexible rates to facilitate the exchange or refund.

It has also reached agreements to protect customers with other airlines in order to have more choices, and has taken shape that has agreements with Oneworld alliance members, along with about a dozen companies.

Travelers concerned may Serviberia phone call 902 400 500 or 900 100 480 in Spain to change your flight or request a refund if the change is not interested.
Rebalancing the German Way Cannot Work

I am not taking the side of the union. Rather, I am pointing out that rebalancing the German way, by forcing still higher unemployment in Spain cannot and will not work.

At some point, and quite frankly I would have expected it by now, there is going to be mass resistance to efforts to balance the budget and productivity differences on the backs of workers.

Spanish Debt Grows by €146 Billion

I like working with Dough Short at Advisor Perspectives. He took my post Spanish Debt Grows by €146 Billion, Largest Ever Recorded; Debt-to-GDP Highest Since 1910 and added a couple of charts to it, stating in an email "I couldn't resist adding a postscript".

Here are the charts and commentary from Doug Short's reposting of Spanish Debt Grows by €146 Billion
Postscript from dshort: Here is an updated chart that I last posted about ten months ago highlighting the disconnect between the S&P 500 and Spain's IBEX 35. Fed policy has certainly been more successful in boosting US equities than the various strategies in Spain despite EU support. The divergence starts at approximately the date of Chairman Bernanke's speech at the Fed's 2010 annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (August 27, 2010). Bernanke strongly hinted at the forthcoming Federal Reserve intervention that was subsequently initiated in November of 2010, namely, the second round of quantitative easing, aka QE2.



click on chart for sharper image

Here is a closer look at the correlation between the S&P 500 and Fed policy.



click on chart for sharper image
Rebalancing the Hard Way

Unemployment in Spain is over 26%. Youth unemployment is over 50%. Spain's budget deficit is still large and growing even though taxes have increased.

Rebalancing the German Way (the hard way), will require still  higher levels of unemployment and still lower wages, perhaps for a decade.

I suggest the patience of the Spanish population cannot possibly last that long.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Spanish Debt Grows by €146 Billion, Largest Ever Recorded; Debt-to-GDP Highest Since 1910

Posted: 17 Feb 2013 11:21 AM PST

Proof there is no rebalancing in Europe is easy to find. For example, El Pais reports Spanish Debt Grows by €146 Billion.

What follows is a Mish-modified translation of the above Google-translation.

Key Points

  • The public debt exceeded €882 billion at the end of 2012
  • Debt Grew by €146 Billion in one year
  • The increase in the first year of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is the largest ever recorded
  • Debt-to-GDP is highest since 1910 
  • Interest expense is at record high

The Government and the Bank of Spain debt figures are chilling. Government debt broke records in 2012. In the first year of the Government of Mariano Rajoy, debt skyrocketed to €882 billion, a one year increased of €146 Billion. Never in the economic history of Spain's general government debt had increased so much in a single year. In five years, the debt has increased by €500 Billion, Debt is one of the major drags on the recovery of the Spanish economy.

Debt to GDP



The increase in public debt in 2012 is the equivalent of more than 14 percentage points of gross domestic product (GDP). €882 billion is equivalent to between 83.5% and 84% of GDP. The government had forecast a ratio of 79.8% for the 2012 budget last July, but has since revised the figure upwards. In relative terms, debt-to-GDP is at highest debt level in more than a century, particularly since 1910, when the Spanish debt stood at 88% of GDP, according to a historical IMF data.

Despite cuts and tax increases, the government of Mariano Rajoy has been unable to significantly reduce the gap in the public accounts.

Skyrocketing Public Debt




click on chart for sharper image

Outstanding liabilities will probably exceed 100% of GDP at the end of the year, and there are more than €100 billion of a government debt in the hands of others (Social Security mainly). The €882 billion figure also does not include about €60 billion of debt owed by public enterprises.

A Troubling Context

To Emilio Ontiveros, president of Financial Analysts International (AFI), "the main problem is the payment of interest, because it is the most unproductive spending item possible and occurs in a country that has had to cut back in other areas and need to recover growth."

Spain had never spent so much money to pay only the interest on its debt: €38.66 billion. Financial expenses for the first time in history exceeded staff costs. "If you do not grow, you cannot pay your debts," said Ontiveros, who argues that Spain should have requested the bond purchase program prepared by the Bank Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest paid on Spanish debt markets, a mechanism for which the Government should ask before rescue its European partners. "The corollary of this is that Spain needs urgent measures aimed to reduce this expense," he says.

The average interest paid by the state's debt is 4.1% with an average maturity of 6.1 years, but this level of return that investors demand may grow by the economic downturn. Despite the truce that markets have given Spain, political tensions rose in Spain and Italy .

Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney, warns that Spain fails in all the variables that serve to stabilize the debt: its economy does not grow, it pays a high interest rate and has primary deficit (prior to payment of interest on the debt). "This dynamic eventually leads to non-payment," he reflects.

End-Transalation

Note that last comment by Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist Intermoney "This dynamic eventually leads to non-payment."

Indeed!

More on Non-Rebalancing

Many economists see signs of stabilization. I see signs of delusion in economists.



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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Benefits of Online Backup for Businesses

Posted: 17 Feb 2013 06:05 AM PST

Online backup is highly important for all kinds of businesses in order to attain effectiveness. It makes them rather cost effectives gradually and tends to be a good way to regain backup. This is often implied by businesses and serves to be simple and can be easily used in times...
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Top 7 Smartest iPhone Apps for Bloggers

Posted: 17 Feb 2013 05:51 AM PST

Most of the bloggers find it very difficult to manage their work while traveling. You can not keep your laptop turned on at all times to keep a check on things. However, you can easily check for updates on an iPhone. In this article, we will tell you about 7...
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Seth's Blog : Excoriated

 

Excoriated

There are only three reasons to really chew someone out for something they did, only three reasons to have an emotional tantrum, to use cutting language and generally make them feel lousy:

1. You want them to never do it again.

2. You want them to stop doing it right now.

3. You feel upset about the change and taking it out on the person who took action makes you feel better. First clue, "he deserved it!"

Can we agree that the third reason is selfish and there are almost certainly better responses if your goal is one or two?


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sâmbătă, 16 februarie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Sinking Yen a "Byproduct, Not a Focus" of Trade Wars Says Japan; G-20 Takes Harder Line on Currencies

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 10:52 PM PST

Japan is in the forefront of the news with ridiculous statements such as a the sinking yen is a "Byproduct, Not a Focus" of its foreign trade policy. I have a simple question "Even if that statement is believable, what difference does it make?"

The answer is none. Regardless, statements from Japanese politicians are not believable in the first place. That helps explain the following Bloomberg headline G-20 Takes Harder Line on Currencies.
Two days of talks between G-20 finance ministers and central bankers ended in Moscow yesterday with a pledge not to "target our exchange rates for competitive purposes," according to a statement. That's stronger than their position three months ago and leaves Japanese officials under pressure to stop publicly giving guidance on their currency's value.

With the yen near its lowest level against the dollar since 2010, policy makers are attempting to soothe concern that some countries are trying to weaken exchange rates to spur growth through exports. The risk is a 1930s-style spiral of devaluations and protectionism if other countries retaliate to safeguard their own economies.

"Politically-motivated devaluations can't sustainably improve competitiveness; they don't solve structural problems and they set off reactions," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said yesterday. "The clear language in the communiqué underlines this unity and will allow the debate in the future to take place with a less excited tone."

Japanese officials in Moscow denied driving down their currency, arguing its fall was a byproduct -- not a focus -- of their effort to revive the world's third-largest economy.

Japanese officials aren't alone in accepting a cheaper currency as good for growth.

Bank of England policy maker Martin Weale said in a speech yesterday that although U.K. central bankers don't "target the exchange rate," there is reason to tolerate any inflation resulting from the pound's six-year decline.

Not all G-20 policy makers want a weaker currency. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in a Feb. 13 interview that "the exchange rate of the euro is broadly in line with fundamentals" and "you cannot really say that the euro is seriously overvalued."
Mathematically Impossible

As I have commented numerous time recently, global currency wars are heating up as every nation believes it can export its way out of a slump.

In spite of statements by Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, it's important to note that Weidmann does not set ECB policy. Realistically, Weidmann appears to have as much influence on ECB policy as hawks have on Fed policy (and that is not much).

The ECB wants a cheaper euro, the Fed wants a cheaper dollar, China wants a cheaper yuan, and Japan wants a cheaper yen.

Mathematical reality says that's impossible, yet that is what every country wants to achieve.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Can You Beat a Chimpanzee in a Memory Test?

Posted: 16 Feb 2013 09:32 AM PST

Here is an interesting video showing the ability of chimpanzees to memorize and recall random patterns of light flashes better than what one in a thousand humans could do. All chimps seem to have this recall ability.



Play the video, it's fascinating.

The Financial Times has a related story in Memory of chimps 'far better than human'.
Chimpanzees can far outperform humans in some mental tasks, including rapidly memorising and recalling numbers, Japanese scientists have shown.

At the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting, Tetsuro Matsuzawa, of Kyoto University's Primate Research Institute, showed remarkable videos of chimpanzees displaying mental dexterity that would be way beyond most people.

The star performer among the institute's 14 chimpanzees, a 12-year-old male called Ayumu, has learnt all the numerals from 1 to 19. Several other Kyoto chimpanzees have learnt 1 to 9.

When the numbers flash up in random places across a computer screen and in random order, and disappear after less than a second, the apes can point immediately to the exact locations where the numerals had been, in the correct numerical order.

Prof Matsuzawa said a few exceptional people, such as those with savant syndrome, might be capable of such memory feats but they are far beyond the average human brain. "One person in several thousand may be able to do this," he said. "All the chimps I have tested can do it."

Prof Matsuzawa, who combines the study of wild chimpanzees in west Africa with research using the captive colony in Kyoto, said such a good working memory – the ability to take in an accurate, detailed image of a complex scene or pattern – was an important survival tool in the wild.

For example, the apes can quickly assess and remember the distribution of edible fruit in a forest canopy. Or, when two rival bands of chimpanzees encounter one another, they can assess the strength of the rival group and decide whether to fight or flee.
Lumosity Games

A quick search led me to another video of Ayumu the chimpanzee, this time on Lumosity.Com.

Click on the link for an opportunity to see if you can beat Ayumu in a short-term memory test.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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How cheap is Cheap Web Hosting

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 10:48 PM PST

Cheap web hosting is basically preferred by many organizations and businesses today, especially those cheap web hosts that extend free domain names. You have to select the most reliable and beneficial service provider for guaranteed efficient technical support and complete uptime. The most important part lies in selecting a service...
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4 ways how SEO is expected to change in 2013

Posted: 15 Feb 2013 08:09 PM PST

Over the last one year the search scene has changed to a large extend. The year 2012, has proven to be quite eventful due to the shifts in the SEO survival. An enormous crackdown on spammy websites due to the EMD updates was just one of the scathing steps. Google...
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